Afghanistan – In For the Long Haul – Troop Increases On the Rise – Historical Comparisons to the Viet Nam Conflict.

As military analysts make their assessment of the War in Afghanistan, the overall scope of the Operation has a dismal forecast. (Washington Post) The costs and time in-country are expected to exceed that of the Iraq War, and U.S. troop levels, now at 29,000, (NATO forces making up the bulk of the 61,000 troops), could see significant increases dependent upon the reports due later this month by the Head of U.S. Operations, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal. The administrations, National Security Advisors, James Jones, on CBS “Face The Nation”:

"I don't think we're at a crisis level where there is any move by the Taliban to overthrow the government," Jones said on CBS' "Face the Nation."

But he said Washington would not rule out an additional increase in U.S. troop levels to secure the country.

Afghanistan, unlike Iraq, has an unforgiving climate and geography that has made that country, to date, impossible to conquer. An interesting point of view from The Pakistan Dailysuggests that the administration’s foray into Afghanistan (which is dubbed the “Graveyard of Empires”), will require 500,000 troops, and that does not guarantee success. The author is basing his assessment on the history of the nation, and the Eastern perspective of the U.S. incursion into that country.

The comparisons between Afghanistan and Vietnam have been based on the level of troops and the likelihood of a successful outcome. From a January , 2009 piece in Newsweek, the consensus based on the article was that this war was not at all like Viet Nam, due to troop levels at the time. That said, with a reduction in military spending, an increase in troops, and an attempt to bolster the Afghani forces and win the hearts and minds of its citizens, sound eerily similar to the tactics taken by the Kennedy Administration in the early stages of the Viet Nam War. The situation escalated under Johnson, with the assessment by those in the same position as McChrystal, that additional troops would be needed to keep the peace. The difference between Afghanistan today and Vietnam is the military. At that point, there were insufficient numbers of volunteer military so the draft was reinstated. Should, at some point, the number of volunteer military be insufficient in fighting the Afghanistan War (the ratio of troops to population should be 20.1 or 600,000 on the ground), there would be no choice but to call up those who have registered for Selective Service. In the final analysis, as is usual (post Viet Nam) it will be the U.S. citizenry that will gauge how soon this particular war is ended. The Iraq War divided the nation, and insured (in part) the election of Barak Obama as he promised to pull troops out of Iraq (duly noted and achieved for the most part). The U.S. Press and the populace were fully complicit in the desire to end the Iraq conflict, while Barack Obama pointed out that the U.S. real interest lay in Afghanistan, where the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden were camped -a just war of sorts, which has been given a great deal of positive press, to date.

However, should the theater become unmanageable (based again on historical trends and geography), and troop levels increase, with fatalities fast outstripping those of the Iraq conflict, then the comparison would be justified, and history would have, once again proven a point. That said, history, although unkind to Johnson’s predecessor, Richard Nixon, must concede that he was elected based on ending the Viet Nam War, and he did so. It is the arrogance of those that believe they are able to ignore the consequences of the past, in self-righteousness and campaign promises of the present, that may, unfortunately, prove history rules the day.