Iran Update 07 03 2009 – Rafsanjani Removes Himself from Friday Prayers – Nationwide Strike Probable – Outcome of the Conflict - Analysis

Although general interest in the plight of the Iranian’s fighting for freedom has died down in major media outlets in the U.S. over the past week, the news out of Iran has been filtered by the regime, and the state news agency appears to have been the only news source, outside of blogs, social network sites and the European media. That said - events are taking place daily that indicate a regime that is on the brink of extinction rather than one that has crushed a revolt. Twitter is now available for Iranian’s, however, most fear that the Government will locate “protestors” via their ISPs (which has happened), that said, there are several who have been “twitting” from the beginning of the movement, who are still active, and their information, first unconfirmed, proves solid in the end.

Therefore, there are several factors at play this weekend that are indicators that the protest is still strong and, although American’s look for overnight results, it must be remembered that the American Revolution took years, not days or months, before freedom was achieved and a stable government enacted.
Therefore, of interest: A general strike is eminent, this according to the Italian Press Il Giornale :
“The opposition Iranian “We block the Country” Is general strike” (Translated)

Hossein Moussavi not motivating force, the Ayatollah and former president of the parliament Mehdi Karroubi spalleggia and the former reformist president Moammed Khatami returns to put them. Forty-eight hours after the definitive validation of the ballot “prank” the leader of the opposition is less single, except weak person. The return in field of Khatami, from days silent, recompacting itself to the summit of the opposition of the “reformist trinità” signals that Alì Akbar Rafsanjani, true grey eminence of the crash for the power, continues to put the former 67-year-old prime Minister and its Green Wave. Not to case from yesterday evening the voices of twitter, the blogs and Internet announce a great manifestation in order this evening and an able general strike to block the country from the 5 to the 8 July.

Additionally, Rasfanjani has excused himself from the Friday prayer service.

It has been reported that Rafsanjani, who is one of the Imams that lead Friday Prayers in Tehran's largest mosque, has declined to lead prayers there again. Last week, his spot was first filled by Khomeini, but Khomeini pulled out at the last minute leaving Ahmad Khatami to lead the prayers. Rafsanjani is not planning to attend this Friday's Prayers either.”

Should Khomeini lead the services Friday and should he speak on the protests – it will indicate that all is not well with the Regime.
The Regime is, after all, still facing strong opposition from Mousavi and Karroubi, who are openly defiant of Khomeini - the Times Online article from 2 – July notes that they (Mousavi and Karroubi) are “courting arrest .” The question remains: will Khomeini take the bait?
The tone of the protests has changed from one of a disputed election to one of general removal of the current regime. Therefore, should either Mousavi or Karroubi be placed under arrest by the Ayatollah and his friends from Hezbollah and Hamas, it would lend speed to the protests. Should there be a standoff; the results are much the same.

Therefore, it is worth watching events unfold between the 5th and the 8th (some dates given are much broader): suggestion, read “tweets”, type #IranElection into the search for constant updates; it is obvious from the onset when reading “Tweets” what is taking shape – as a guide, those that are linked with a “tinyurl” to a website that is in Farsi- one is able to translate the page - (it will be a very rough translation)via Google translation. Historical events are taking place now in Iran that could impact the stability of the Middle East for years to come. Should the Iranian Regime be removed in favor of a more secular Republic/Democracy, the funding to Hezbollah and Hamas will be cut from that source, and a return to normal relations with Iran will be possible with the E.U. as well as the U.S. (dependent, of course, on who the current administration supports, and, should the length of time it takes to formulate a new government go beyond 3 years (as it should), how a new administration, depending upon party politics, would react).