Monday, June 22, 2009

Obama Poll Numbers Fall With Increased Spending and Health Care Reform – Strongly Approves now at 32%.

Two new polls, Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking, and Gallops Daily Presidential Tracking show an overall decline in Barack Obama’s job approval rating.

The Gallop, based on a 3 day rolling average, has the “approves” at 57% and the “disapproves” at 35% - which, on the face of it, is still a healthy job approval rating. When one looks at the numbers from Rasmussen, the reporting is more in-depth – showing 53% “somewhat approve”, while 46% disapprove – in polling, the “somewhat approves” are added to the “strongly approves” to give an overall approval rating. Rasmussen’s daily tracking from Sunday June 21, show that Obama’s “strongly approves” have dropped to 32%; they had been steady at 37 to 34% over the past three months – with the highest “strongly approves” at 44% on January 21st.

One has to ponder the term “somewhat approve”, and question why the polls are not tiered in order to give a better understanding of actual performance. A “somewhat approve” response from someone who has been polled, especially in this age of “American Idol” politics, could be a reference to naming the Presidential dog, rather than an indication of actual performance related to a specific policy or action taken as part of the job. That said, the same could be said of “somewhat disapprove”, therefore the relevant numbers are the “strongly approves” and “strongly disapproves”, which should be used as an actual barometer for approval – with the “somewhat approve” or disapproves given a separate heading.

Although proponents of the President continue to place the blame for the economy on the previous administration – the public, in general, understand that choices made by the current administration have yet to bear fruit (in turning the economy around) – historically the actions taken by this administration mirror the economic policies of the Carter administration which also “inherited” a financial crisis; the solution at the time - a stimulus program and an auto bailout (Chrysler). Although, one can also argue that there is a difference between the economy of the late 1970’s and today, and that the programs put into place by the Obama administration have not had the time necessary to work (or not), the perception of the overall population has also changed, from one that was, at one time, patience, to one that is now seeking “instant” relief (entertainment). Additionally, although the nation clamored for “change”, it was more of a “movement” (see caught up in the heat of the movement), being caught up in part of “something bigger”.

Now that Obama has the job, he is faced with those initial supporters who expected nothing short of free trips to Disney World, with no clear understanding of what the job of President actually entails. The fact that the government is spending with abandon and adding costly programs at a time when the government is patently “broke” is the biggest factor. The Universal Health Care concept, which played well on the campaign trail, is being viewed by those taxpayers, as an added burden at a time when the country can ill afford to add any additional debt.

Conservatives, however, both social and fiscal, see the administration as in direct opposition to their political ideology, and as greater percentages of the nation identify themselves as conservative, or “leaning conservative” (there we go again), one can reasonably project, short of a miracle, that this President’s job approval ratings will drop further in the coming months.

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