Tuesday, November 04, 2008
The Electoral College – Is it tied to the popular vote?
The Electoral College has been cast out in articles the past few days asking Can Obama Win the Popular Vote but Lose the Election?” - the answer is yes, however, it is possible but not probable – having happened in only a handful of elections since the inception of the Electoral College. The reason being that the Electoral College is tied to the popular vote – Electors are chosen from political parties in each State, to cast their vote for the candidate who has received a majority of votes. These Electors are generally bound by state law to cast their ballot for a particular candidate, that said, Electors are not constitutionally bound to do so. Electors cast their votes on December 24th – well after the Electoral College votes have been awarded to a particular candidate. The best way to insure that your voice is heard – vote! Regardless of choice, the citizen that votes has the right to complain. (States to watch closely – Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada – polls are no bellwether this year; it will be the results coming in once the polls close will be the most accurate assessment – there is no doubt that it will be close – as everyone is making predictions: 271/269 – McCain/Palin.
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2 comments:
It's incredible how few people understand the electoral college.
And as Paul Harvey would say ... here's the rrrrrrrrest of the story.
The Electoral College system was established in Article II of the Constitution and amended by the 12th Amendment in 1804 ... plenty of time for all of you that don't understand to have learned the system.
Each elector gets one vote. Thus, a state with eight electors would cast eight votes. There are currently 538 electors and the votes of a majority of them ... 270 votes ... are required to be elected. Since Electoral College representation is based on congressional representation, states with larger populations get more Electoral College votes.
So here's my big and rare prediction. McCain and Obama will tie 269-269. How's that for an incredible finish?
Now ... with that in mind ... a little more history:
Should none of the candidates win 270 electoral votes, the 12th Amendment kicks in and the election is decided by the House of Representatives. The combined representatives of each state get one vote and a simple majority of states is required to win. This has only happened twice. Presidents Thomas Jefferson in 1801 and John Quincy Adams in 1825 were elected by the House of Representatives.
While the state electors are "pledged" to vote for the candidate of the party that chose them, nothing in the Constitution requires them to do so. In rare instances, an elector will defect and not vote for his or her party's candidate ... such "faithless" votes rarely change the outcome of the election and laws of some states prohibit electors from casting them.
So tonight ... even before the sun sets in California at least one of the TV networks will have declared a winner. By midnight, one of the candidates will have probably claimed victory and some will have conceded defeat. But not until the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, when the electors of the Electoral College meet in their state capitals and cast their votes will we really have a new president and vice president elect.
Why the delay between the general election and the Electoral College meetings? Back in the 1800s, it simply took that long to count the popular votes and for all the electors to travel to the state capitals. Today, the time is more likely to be used for settling any protests due to election code violations and for vote recounts.
Be prepared that we'll need all of that time ... and then some.
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