John Kerry – Long shot? – Jeff Beatty (R) and The Massachusetts Senate Race.

Although John Kerry (D-MA) is still believed to be on solid ground when it comes to retaining his Senate Seat; one has to understand that the only challenge he has faced to date was a very feisty campaign from Ed O’Reilly during the Democrat Primary. Kerry did win the primary – so that he may go on to face Republican Jeff Beatty in the general election, but, it was hardly a mandate. Kerry won the primary, leading 67 to 33 percent with 50% of the votes recorded One would think that’s a strong indication that the Senator would be able to beat anyone – however, one also has to look at the fact that 33 percent of the state’s Democrats preferred O’Reilly to Kerry – or, in other words “anyone but Kerry”.

Kerry, not a favorite in the Bay state, has done rather well in recent polls, except for one, which asked about replacing him. The Suffolk University Poll in June showed that 51% of the state’s voters would prefer to see Kerry Replaced. The question is: with whom? Additionally, 51% of the state’s voters are made up of Unenrolled or undeclared voters – those who are least likely to vote in a primary.

This sets the stage for the Republican Challenger, Jeff Beatty. The Boston Globe, has already begun stumping for Kerry headlining that “Beatty Camps begin campaign on the negative side”. The interesting point is that Beatty has continued to contrast the difference in style between himself and Senator Kerry, also, drawing attention to some of the Senators more dubious dealings; which brings up the question: If a statement is fact, how then can it be negative?
The answer: Only if the candidate that is being “maligned” with the truth is a Democrat!

Beatty has what is referred to as “relevant experience”, and has been campaigning across the states to capacity crowds, which include Democrats. During the primary, Kerry was able to draw crowds of 50 to 100 in each of his “Kerry in Your Corner” stops – attendees included staff, and no Republicans were present.

Although Kerry is funded to the teeth, Beatty has heart and a grassroots campaign, and cash at hand to run commercials, something that O’Reilly did not have. Kerry’s involvement in AIG and the Freddie and Fannie Mae fiasco are well documented. In fact, Kerry, along with Obama and Dodd were the three highest paid Senators from those institutions (otherwise known as campaign contributions). Kerry and AIG had ties to Boston’s Big Dig, a sore spot for many Bay state Voters. Kerry blocked Big Dig Provisions and then received large campaign contributions from the insurer

Beatty, a highly decorated Veteran and Small Business Owner, is seeing more website traffic on a daily basis, and has received over 40,000 individual donations.

Favorite Beatty quotes: “Kerry has the cash equity, Jeff Beatty has the human equity,” he said. “Remember, Jeff Beatty bumper sticker, $2. Jeff Beatty yard sign, $5. John Kerry concession speech — priceless’

Favorite Kerry Quote: “Do you Know Who I am?

One has to look at the long-shot in this race: Jeff Beatty, who only has that designation due to Kerry’s wealth, and brand recognition. That nagging Suffolk Poll, strangely unlike other polls taken, carries validity. The poll did not mention any particular candidate by name with the exception of Kerry.

Therefore, Should 30% of the Democrats who voted for O’Reilly turn their attention to Beatty (a distinct possibility), and 12% of the states Republicans go to the polls (They are motivated, McCain is extremely popular in Massachusetts), add a conservative 30% of the Independents to the mix and the odds change significantly. Beatty is not the long-shot in this contest, John Kerry holds that position. Give Kerry 70% of the Democrat vote, 0% of the Republican vote and 20% of the Independent Vote. Math is not on his side.