2012 GOP Potential Challengers – Reading Tea Leaves via Book Tours

Ohio, a swing state in 2008, where President Obama bested GOP Candidate, John McCain by a margin of 51 to 47%, is now, according to an article online at the Cincinnati Enquirer receiving visits from the President and Multiple Potential GOP Candidates. The Premise for the majority of the visits – book tours. Viewing a book tour as a stepping stone to a Presidential run, might on the outside appear a bit ridiculous, as bookstores are located in every state of the union – and of the three “front-runners” mentioned in the article, all have authored books and were “on tour” in the State. Included in this list are Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who have been leading in polling for the GOP nomination since the Mid-terms. Newt Gingrich, in this particular article, was in Ohio promoting a movie that he had directed, while others visiting the State had attended purely political events, including: Tim Pawlenty, John Tune and Michele Bachmann.

Bachmann, who has been actively promoting the Tea Party movement in both the national spotlight as well as in early primary states such as Iowa, is seen by some as a potential candidate, however, tea leaves aside, Bachmann, a stalwart, no apologies, Conservative – Tea Party leader is, like the balance of those names (with some exceptions, notably New Jersey Govenor Chris Christie) side-stepping the question of whether or not one will run for the Presidency.

Book tours have taken Mitt Romney, for instance, from New York, across the country and into Canada asking the question on the main tour dates page: “Is Your City Lucky Enough to Have the 45 President of the United States Visit After That?” This, from Mitt Romney Central dot com, leaves little left for Romney to do than formally announce his bid. The Title of Romney’s Book: ”No Apology, Believe in America” a New York Times Best Seller.

Mike Huckabee’s latest book, A Simple Government: Twelve Things We Really Need from Washington (and a Trillion That We Don't!)” is set for release on February 22, 2011. His tour dates are based, for now, mainly across the south, beginning in Iowa. Huckabee has noted more than once, that he would be making a decision regarding a run, by summer 2011, however, if one were reading Book Tour Tea Leaves, it would appear that decision may come earlier, in Iowa, in late February.

Sarah Palin’s latest book tour took her to Iowa and South Carolina (as well as Little Rock, AR, Nebraska and Texas, to name a few). ”America by Heart : Reflections on Family, Faith, and Flag” her latest, which, incidentally debuted at the number 2 slot on the New York Times Best Seller List.

Therefore, the three most mentioned potential candies, all have current books, and are either on tour, have finished touring and or are about to tour the nation, and stopping at States one traditionally associates with politics.

In 2007, Mike Huckabee went on tour with his book, “From Hope to Higher Ground” The Washington Post headlined on January 28th, 2007, “Mike Huckabee Launches Presidential Bid” however, he formally announced in February.
Obama, dubbed in June of 2008, as the “presumptive nominee”released a “flood” of books prior the election.

Tea Leaves aside, books outlining an individual’s view of American, which is timed for release immediately before or during the general election cycle, compete with book tour that places those individuals in States traditionally on the list of politico’s as a first step towards a Presidential run, have been released by all perceived top runners.

This book tour stage as a stepping stone to the Presidency (or not at the case may be), allows a “potential candidate” to get an idea of just how popular, or unpopular, they may be in key states, allows them to meet the people on the ground, with a fair amount of non-committal book signing, that will, in all likelihood generate both income and interest.

Of Note: Donald Trump, who has announced a possible intent to run for the GOP nomination, has not written a book – yet.

Major Parties Court the South – Convention Placement for Democrats not Without Controversy - 2012 Begins

It goes without saying, that one cannot win a Presidential election without those Southern States, specifically those considered “swing” states one way or another -always considered more Conservative than the rest of the country, and there have been shifts in recent years, especially with the short-lived emergence of blue dog Democrat candidates. The 2010 Mid-terms, for all intents and purposes, changed the landscape from the mid-west to the west, to the northeast, with the usual glaring exceptions of the States of California, Massachusetts and New York. Therefore, the South, Florida specifically as a swing state of sorts, would be a logical location for the RNC to set up camp.

The RNC choice of Tampa, in the state of Florida, is somewhat of a “safe” choice, given the strength of the Republican party in the state, and the recent election of Mark Rubio, Tea Party/Republican, to the Senate. The setting is urban, and Tampa, like so many urban areas in Florida, could be any eastern city, with the exception of geography. The psychological implications of this setting, therefore, are twofold, demoralize the opposition and shore up the base.

On the other hand, the Democrats chose Charlotte, North Carolina, stepped in the history of the South, currently has one Democrat and one Republican Senator, their Congressional Representatives are split 7 republicans to 6 Democrats, and the state can be considered a swing state, having 15 electoral votes (2010). The south was, historically a Democrat stronghold up until the 1940’s, university logic suggests that with the Democrat Party adopting a civil rights platform, southern Democrats were disenfranchised and looked towards another party. In addition, as the decades progressed, the strong Christian base in the south, rejected the platform Why not at least attempt to reclaim some of the south by placing a Convention in Charlotte?

There are some objections, mainly form the key supports of the Democrat Party – the unions North Carolina has right to work laws, and are extremely unfriendly environments to unions. Who according to Politco, are not at all pleased with the choice of the Convention site, due to its anti-union atmosphere. One might however, take a closer look at early polling down by Democrat leaning polling firm Public Policy Polling which has been polling the country since the mid-terms in 2010. On hypothetical Republican primaries, as well as hypothetical match-ups between Obama and those Republicans used in the polls (most notably: Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and New Gingrich) the results are rather interesting. In most instances, the President does not fare well, however, he does best Huckabee in North Carolina, not as strong a showing as say the newly released poll from California, or polls taken in Massachusetts, but in order for this projected one-term president to get a toehold, in states other than California and Massachustts, he would need to stake out the south. No sense preaching to the choir.

Note: Massachusetts has, for decades, consistently voted Democrat in Presidential elections with the only exceptions being: Ronald Reagan, where the Bay State, not once, but twice, went red.
With the choice of convention cities, and the Obama campaign staff in place in Chicago, the race for 2012 is on. The only question now remaining is who will be included in the pack of Republican Primary candidates. Mitt Romney, former 1 term Govenor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has all but officially announced. He would be the first from this observation. Newt Gingrich may be the second, he already has given an indication he will run (while in Georgia). Mike Huckabee, who is polling extremely well, is holding any announcements until summer; likewise Palin, who may be under contractual agreements with Fox and also, may want the time to test the water. One would gather though, that Huckabee, who, along with Romney ran in 2008, would decide one way or another earlier, perhaps forming an exploratory committee sometime in February and announcing shortly thereafter, if, his 2008 pattern holds true. Others who have announced they are thinking of running, Donald Trump (who will also announce in June (or the spring), Rick Santorum, former Senator from the State of Pennsylvania, that said, those with the most name recognition now, will stand the best chance at reaching the electorate needed to push a primary challenge. Those who are utilizing social media, and the media in general, will again, have an advantage with this obvious media engaged nation.

Soros Op-Ed for Washington Post – Egypt in Turmoil - Blames Israel and Religious Right – Counsels Obama – Offers Funds for Middle East “Democracy”

George Sorros, Professional Meddler in Word Affairs - image seeking alfpha.com


George Soros, a man whose background belies his rhetoric against Israel, is now taking aim at Israel and the “Religious Right” in an op-ed published by the Washington Post:

“The main stumbling block is Israel. In reality, Israel has as much to gain from the spread of democracy in the Middle East as the United States has. But Israel is unlikely to recognize its own best interests because the change is too sudden and carries too many risks. And some U.S. supporters of Israel are more rigid and ideological than Israelis themselves. Fortunately, Obama is not beholden to the religious right, which has carried on a veritable vendetta against him. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is no longer monolithic or the sole representative of the Jewish community. The main danger is that the Obama administration will not adjust its policies quickly enough to the suddenly changed reality.”

In the piece he praises the Muslim Brotherhood, a group that has a long history of imposing their brand of radical Muslim theology (Motto: “Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. Qur'an is our law. Jihad is our way. Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope.”)on nations where it has gained a foothold, including Iran in the 1970’s. .

Soros, a Hungarian Jew, was protected by his family during the 1930-1940’s Nazi Holocaust, he was given to a “Christian” who had adopted young Soros, in order to protect him from “deportation” by the Nazi’s – Soros was taken along on trips to deport Jews while taking their property and handing it over to the Nazi’s. This tragic childhood background may explain the multibillionaires obsession with meddling in governments (including the U.S. where he became a naturalized citizen in 1961). Perhaps as a catharsis for taking an active role in the destruction of his own people in Hungary, Soros uses his money to fund revolutions worldwide, while, for no clear reason, opposes Israel. Perhaps it is his claim to be an atheist, while attempting to “do good deeds”, which may make up for his past crimes against humanity. Then again, perhaps he’s just an egotistical nut. Either way, he plans to offer the Egyptians and any other governments that may arise out of turmoil - funds (Washington Post).

What is most interesting in the op-ed is that, as a Democrat Party member, he is already campaigning for Obama in this piece - demeaning the “Religious Right” in the US. Which in Soros’s mind has carried on a “vendetta” against Obama. Perhaps it is those bible clutching, gun owning individuals of Pennsylvania whom Obama spoke so fondly of, on his last campaign trip in 2008?

It appears that the Obama administration and George Soros are on the same page: While the Muslim Brotherhood, whose virtues, Soros extols, is calling for the end of peace between Egypt and Israel, as the White House discuses Mubarak’s exit from Egypt leaving the country open for free elections, with George Soros ready to lend a hand, and insure that the Muslim Brotherhood has a voice.

Mr. Soros should find a new hobby in his old age, perhaps skiing in the Swiss Alps, rather than meddling in world’s affairs with his conflicted Jewish Heritage-Anti-Semitic mindset. It is when, men of his ilk are given credibility by the likes of the American Press (note the platitudes at the end of the op-ed), one must take it with a grain of salt, perhaps they are being kind to the doddering old fool.

What one can expect is that those on the “religious right”, will have “foreseen the future” (or read about the Carter-Iran boondoggle, less than 40 years ago), and have put two plus two together. They see a nation in chaos, with no clear leadership fall into the hands of radical jihadists, who will turn Egypt, like Iran, into a Theocracy. This is where, Mr. Soros, “human rights king”, can imagine there are no rapes, murders, beheadings and other atrocities are committed.

Should this come to pass, and revolutions of this nature do move quickly (use Iran as the model), anti-American sentiment will rise above the already brewing attacks on U.S. Journalists (granted pro-Mubarak Egyptians are reportedly beating up the U.S. Journalists, as well as others who are still on the ground in that country), the government will be under Sharia Law, and American’s, including Obama will be considered “the Infidel”. This will place Obama in the same situation as was his doppelganger, one James Carter(1979), just in time for the 2012 general elections.


Govenor Mike Huckabee, image: MikeHuckbee2012.com


One has to ask: which Republican will George Soros (should he not keel over shortly) target? As of the moment, one Mike Huckabee, former Govenor of Arkansas, 2008 GOP Presidential candidate and avid fan of Israel, is polling, for the most part, ahead of other GOP potential nominees, but most importantly, ahead of the current President, in double digits. This may be why, North Carolina, where Obama actually was ahead of Huckabee (a rare occurrence), was chosen as the site of the Democrat Convention for 2012. (Polling data referred to in this section from Public Policy Polling www.publicpolicypolling.com) Note: not one of those polled has made a public announcement that they are actually running for President as of this date. One has to imagine however, that should it be the gun-toting, Christian, Israel Supporting, former two and a half term Govenor from the State of Arkansas, one Mike Huckabee, Soros may be pushed over yet another ledge.

Note: This blog does, at the moment, favor a Huckabee run at the presidency, believing his managerial experience, track record while running the State of Arkansas, his knowledge of foreign policy (form a moderate perspective), and his commitment to excellence in education, including and especially music and the arts as it relates to science and math, makes him not on the most formidable candidate, but the most qualified candidate for the job.

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee (two former Governors) lead the field of GOP "potential candidates" image: current.com

In their latest 2012 Presidential polling of South Dakota Public Policy Polling surveyed a sample of 1045 South Dakota voters, matched closely to the electoral makeup of the state. In the case of South Dakota, Huckabee again, bests the list of potentials, with the exception of state Senator, John Thune. However, against Obama, Huckabee leads by 47 to 41%, Romney by 46 to 40%, with the balance of the GOP “frontrunners” (Gingrich and Palin specifically), trailing the President by 2 points (Gingrich) and 8 points (Palin). With this latest survey, the pollster views South Dakota as a swing state for Obama in 2012, based on the performance of McCain in 2008, who won the state by “less than 9 points”, and the performance of those who may or may not run on the GOP ticket.

In Arizona, which was polled on February 2nd, the state appears more competitive for the President, with Romney and Huckabee leading Obama by 49/43(Romney) and 48/44 (Huckabee). The balance of the GOP primary choices in this survey were limited to the top four, leaving Obama tied with Gingrich and ahead of Palin by 9 points.

In Republic State Primary scenarios, the latest polling shows Huckabee bests Romney, Palin and Gingrich in South Carolina, coming in behind South Carolina’s Jim DeMint by 4 points, and ahead of Romney by 6 according to a survey conducted February 1st by Public Policy Polling.

In the final analysis, according to Public Policy Polling, Huckabee and Romney appear likely to emerge as the two strongest candidates in early GOP primary states. Romney has been running the talk show circuit, appearing on the ”The View”, and showcased his agreement with Obama on the current situation in Egypt, noting that Mubarak should step down. He also appeared on the Dave Letterman show, spoofing a “Top Ten Things You Don’t Know About Mitt Romney”, which according to Politico was designed to show “voters he’ll be a better, more relaxed and relatable Mitt this time around”.

Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee has been in Israel, commenting on Palestinian Settlements noting that those Jewish settlers on the West Bank have a right to be there, which, according to the AP, is in direct opposition to International leaders including Obama. In addition the AP story casts Huckabee as an “evangelical leader and Fox News host”, rather than his primary role as former Govenor of Arkansas (not mentioned). Time reports that Huckabee’s views on the Obama administrations’ handling of the situation in Egypt are at odds – Huckabee believes that the administration was too quick to abandon Mubarak. Huckabee's views are at odds with Romney’s, who has sided with the Obama administration.
Huckabee, one must note, has been a staunch defender of Israel, as our only ally in the Middle East, and the recent trip gave the former Governor an opportunity to highlight his foreign policy views and where they may differ from Obama, and for that matter, Mitt Romney.

Although Romney has all but formally announced his intention to run, Huckabee, leads in the majority of polling by PPP to date - both men seen by that pollster as the frontrunners. That said, in polling against Obama in Massachusetts, Romney does not hold his own state faring better than the balance of the GOP potential candidates in the survey conducted on Dec. 3, 2010. In this particular poll, however, the electoral make-up is skewed towards Democrats, with the following discrepancy Democrats 42%, Republican 20% and Independents 38%. Massachusetts Independents dominate both parties, making up over 50% of the electorate, with Republican’s holding approximately 12 to 14% and Democrats 35%. To date, this is the only poll conducted by this pollster, where the electoral makeup did not closely match those polled. (Using voter statistics from Secretary of State Websites in each of the polls conducted.)

Overall, one can look for Huckabee to announce (or not), either end February or when his contract with Fox expires (or he takes advantage of any clause in the contract which allows him to bow out). Huckabee has noted, however, that if he announces, it will not be until June of 2011. That may accomplish two things: he will have a solid understanding of which states he fares best in (with thanks to PPP), regarding primaries, and will give him the additional time to sum up any late entries into the competition as well as work on foreign policy. In that wise, although considered a frontrunner now, (by pundits and pollsters) he would, in reality become a fresh face in the pack, one armed to the teeth.

Obama Administration Walks Fine Line in Egypt with Carteresque Support for Muslim Brotherhood

Although many are hyping the value of Democracy in the Middle East, one has to remove the rose colored glasses and look to the realities of the political landscape in that volatile area of the globe. In the never ending religious battle between Islam and anyone who does not subscribe to Islam, the option of converting infidels (and/or executing those that do not conform) is best served by being part and parcel of a government. In Iran, for example, which is a country dominated by Sharia Law, hangings of innocent young women(Iran Focus)," murder of “dissidents (Christian Science Monitor, and unspeakable atrocities are committed all in the name of Allah. A strong reference for Human Rights Violations under Sharia Law in Iran are well documented by IRanHRDC.org, additional resources are found at Iranhr.net (warning graphic photographs).

In 1979 the people in Iran looked to oust the oppressive Shah, in order to bring Democracy to the nation, led by the pious Ayatollah Khomeini, who was back by former President Jimmy Carter – the preceding is the end result. It is not that people do not want a democracy, it is that religious organizations which invest in the political aspect of the nation and are provided legitimacy by more powerful foreign governments, specifically democracies such as the United States, dupe the populace into believing that the economy will prosper, that the government will take care of its people; and once in power, the rest, as they say is oppression.

In June of 2010 The Muslim Brotherhood attended an Obama Speech in Cairo via “official invitation”. It is the first indication that the administration is reaching out to that particular group.

Today’s Israeli Financial Website; globes.co.ilnotes a New York Times article that included Obama’s overtures to the group:

“The option to approach the Muslim Brotherhood came during a meeting of over a dozen foreign policy experts at the White House on Monday. The meeting, led by deputy national security adviser for strategic communications Benjamin Rhodes, and two other National Security Council officials, Daniel Shapiro and Samantha Power, examined unrest in the region, and the potential for the protests to spread.

"The New York Times" quotes participants as saying that White House staff members said that Mr. Obama believed that Egyptian politics needed to encompass 'non-secular' parties: diplomatic-speak for the Muslim Brotherhood.”

Which is followed by a report out of the BBC: The Muslim Brotherhood is intent on seeing *(video here) Sharia law imposed in Egypt:

Zeinab Badawi asks Muslim Brotherhood's Kamal El-Helbawy if the aim of the movement is to establish a state in Egypt that is governed by the Islamic Sharia law. (BBC)

The answer in the video available on on the BBC Website, is yes, if the majority prefer Sharia Law. With the Muslim Brotherhood in power, will the majority have a choice?

Taking a step back in time, Former President Jimmy Carter was positive that the his administration would be able to work with the Ayatollah Khomeini, suggesting that the man who would become supreme ruler, would be friends – the administration had been in contact some time prior to the return of Khomeini and the end result a strong rebuff of the U.S. and the most repressive regime in the Middle East to date: From the St. Peterburgs Times, Febraruy 13th, 1979 article here

It goes without saying, that governments meddle in one another affairs, be it for profit (often the case), power (which is more often the case, but also goes to profit), or in the instance of those who’s lack of experience and naiveté enter the mix: a belief that when a group or individual insists that they re only interested I the benefit of their people, it must be true. Ideology trumps sanity and research in certain instances.
It goes without saying that he hope for Democracy to establish a foothold in the middle eastern nations that subscribe to Islam is ideal, especially with our ally, Israel, the last man standing so to speak, that would fit that criteria, surrounded by nations that would rather, by Sharia Law, see Israel depopulated of Jews and Christians. However, the likelihood, based on history and the obvious, does not give those who view the world through boring research and memories of times past, appears rather slim, rather the opposite (Iranian situation) is anticipated.

For further edification on the goals of the Religious order of the Muslim Brotherhood, the following two sources are somewhat enlightening as they speak to the Brotherhood’s operations within the U.S.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s mission is clear: to spread Islam worldwide, including the U.S. according to both documents and articles on the organizations activities within the United States

Gallup Highlights Tea Party Importance – The Tea Party Comparison To 60’s Political Revolution

The Tea Party Patriot - image sumo tv

Politico’sJennfier Epstein, picked up on Gallup’s Tea Party poll – The question posed: Should the GOP Consider Tea Party Ideas with the result, a resounding, cross party lines, yes. It is not so much, as Epstein pointed out, that Gallup specified what the ideals of the Tea Party included, rather “leaving respondents to decide for themselves.” - while she included the following definition: “The movement draws on populist sentiments and pushes an agenda focused on reducing taxes, government spending and the national debt.” (Politico)

Gallup released the poll on Monday paired the national opinion of the Republican versus the Tea Party, with the end result that the Republican Party scored slightly higher on favorability at 47% overall, with the Tea Party garnering 39% approval. The poll included Democrats, Republicans and non-affiliated respondents, and implies that the Republican-Tea Party Movement are aligned, or in completion with one another, rather than the reality that the Tea Party Movement is a separate entity with some similar views held by established Republicans.

What would be more useful: a poll comparing the favorability of the Tea Party compared and contrasted with the both the Republican and Democrat Party. It goes without saying that Tea Party Members ran as Republican’s, gaining seats in historical proportions in the House of Representatives in this past election. Savvy politicos understand that running as an Independent and/or Libertarian, (which is the Tea Party make-up) would be akin to spitting in the wind at this point, given the fact that the Tea Party has yet to structure itself as a national political party. Therefore, running “as a Republican” would allow a brand of sorts, and an ideology which would not be anathema to the core beliefs of the fiscally conservative, constitutional based Tea Party. It is akin to the “Blue Dog” moderate conservative Democrats who ran in 2008 and joined the ranks of the majority Democrats. The difference lay in the lack of a cohesive movement on the part of the Blue Dogs, which, the end result was a partisan paring of those Blue Dogs with the rank and file Democrats. The Tea Party members of Congress, however, are not necessarily ready to run in lockstep with Party Leadership – they have a mandate that is not by political party rather by a revolution of sorts that includes all Americans.

The Tea Party Revolution:

An op-ed piece in the Hampshire Gazette, a newspaper with roots in the Pioneer Valley of Massachusetts, and the city of Northampton, which, one would think, would be the very bastion of progressive thought. Massachusetts after all, was one of the few States in the Union that did not follow the rest of the nation in 2010 and elect either Republican’s or Tea Party members to Congress and/or higher State offices. It is not so much that those Tea Party members or Republican’s were not on the ballot, they were, in droves, it was the fact that Massachusetts Republican’s and Tea Party Members alike did not have the political operation in force that was necessary to put one over the top – one has to understand, (even with redistricting about to take place, due to the loss of one Congressional Seat), that those who did run, came within points of toppling Democrat incumbents who had been entrenched for decades. That fact alone, coupled with a lack of experience and political intelligence, should have those in the Bay State and elsewhere on notice – the movement has legs.

The Gazette Article written by Dr. Jay Fleitman (a 2010 Republican Candidate for the MA2 Congressional District), discussed the Tea Party in real Massachusetts terms. Massachusetts one must understand has a long history of producing “radicals” who go on to provoke “political uprisings” and over the long haul, “change the political landscape”. Dr. Fleitman does justice to the Tea Party, noting where the various groups are (everywhere in Massachusetts), and draws from his personal campaign experience to paint a valid picture of the Tea Party Movement. Beyond Tea Party caricatures is a must read for those who would look to further understanding the “movement”. For that is what the Tea Party really is – a movement with political consequences. Dr. Fleitman in his closing, speaks to the American “revolution” of the 1960’s and the change effected by that movement, and does, for the first time, place that moniker on the Tea Party movement – a movement that is political in nature and has, to date, already affected change in the political landscape, and with continued growth, will continue to do so over the next decades.


Abbie Hoffman, wrapped in the U.S. Flag - image Bapfn.org

In closing, Dr. Jay has a point, and the fact that economics have driven most Revolutions from the original Boston “Tea Party” (a taxing revolution that led to a new nation), to the rejection of economics by the 1960’s hippies (Abby Hoffman, a Worcester Native, wrote the tome: “Steal This Book” – available on Amazon.com on Amazon.comwhich defined the anti-establishment movement that shaped the ideology and minds of those who now sit in the Halls of Congress. As the Tea Party continues to move forward, one must agree with Dr. Jay Fleitman assessment, those of us who witnessed the “revolution of the 1960’s, are indeed fortunate to witness a second political revolution in our lifetime - That of the Tea Party.
It is not without some caution one must view the hyperbole against the Tea Party considering it is often derided by the left, the right, and the press.