The Economic Decline and Escalating Urban Teen Crime – From Chicago to the Northeast - A Rant on the Need for a Courageous Leader

Not a day goes by that news of an “economic” recovery appears to be nowhere in sight – unemployment is back to 9 plus percent, food and fuel inflation is on the rise, and the government is on the brink of writing its last bad check before interest rates are forced upwards - déjà vu 1979.

Those hardest hit by the aforementioned are not the working poor (i.e. those who have a job of any sort, and live paycheck to paycheck, regardless of income), it is those who have never held a job, or have depended upon one form of entitlement or another, in order to survive that are most vulnerable. It does not take a rocket scientist to understand that those living on a stipend, are experiencing the same level of angst, however, in this generation, the reliance on free money, free phones, free cars, free food, all at the largesse of the state or federal government, coupled with a consistent political drumbeat of “tax the rich”, has translated into “take what you want”.

This is nothing new, crime out of poverty – having lived in an inner city setting back in the late 1970’s one watched neighbors on social security benefits purchasing cat food for human consumption, enterprising youth hitting local supermarkets and stocking the trunks of cars with pilfered meats to sell on street corners, it is the crime and consequence of failed economic policies. In the later era, those who profited from larceny also served the public in a twisted sense of a later day “Robin Hood” – the logic: grocery stores had insurance, therefore, taking meat or other food items from these stores, and selling them at pennies on the dollar to those who would go without, was somehow honorable. These were the children that either anticipated having a job during the summer months, fully understanding that they would somehow work at some point.

The further one went into the inner city, however, the less “noble” the criminal behavior became. One driving through Hartford, CT at rush hour was well advised (in the pre-cell phone era) to keep a purse or any valuables hidden under a car seat, or risk an attack and robbery.) Once the economy improved, the rampant crime dissipated, and those who played at “Robin Hood” became respected members of the community. In Hartford, the crime abated, absorbed by the ability of the dollar to go further. In that era, the emphasis in schools and homes was that the individual be self-made, educated and take every opportunity to improve one’s station in life. No-one, especially the government, was responsible for one’s ability to survive, unless, and only unless there was a disaster of sorts.

It is not surprising therefore, that today, as the economy is in the same shape (or worse, as the jury is out), that those who have “checks” that do not cover the “bills”, specifically disenfranchised teens, are now committing crimes that would embarrass their counterparts of only a few decades past. It is the loss of the teaching of self-reliance, the push from parents and peers that would send high school students into tobacco fields, factories, construction any job that paid so that one could contribute and grow. It is the pervasive progressive push that the rich are somehow to “blame” and therefore, those on the bottom rung are “owed” everything they desire to exist. The fact that those factory jobs no longer exit, or the small farms, plays a part in this breakdown – where those who still desire to achieve on their own are hampered by a lack of choices, and must compete for those low level jobs with adults.

The crimes thereof ere, have become more blatant, without apparent concern for consequence. Take Chicago for example: Teen “mobs” are boarding city buses and robbing passengers – NBC Chicago reports that that up to 15 teens boarded buses on two separate occasions stealing cell phones and other items from passengers. Cell phones can be sold on Criagslist for example bringing $50 to $100, depending on the make or model. These are youth that are taking what they feel they “deserve” – the victim may be viewed as having “more money” or even “rich” by their standards, and therefore “deserving” of being robbed.

The civility is gone, as it is no longer taught or expected, regardless of what rung on the ladder one finds oneself, there simply is no incentive.

In the recent earthquakes in Japan, the most startling fact of coming from that disaster was that no looting occurred – neighbors helped one another, the reliance on self-reliance and family and respect deep rooted in a culture, that is reminiscent of the culture that pervaded the U.S. no so very long ago.

In Western Mass, a recent tornado that struck Springfield, resulted in neighbors helping neighbors, but also looting. Taking advantage of those that are struck by disaster, as the haves versus the “have nots” has appeared to become the norm.

The solution therefore, is to teach your children well, to right the wrong dogma that the world owes, that the rich are somehow evil, and that the “state” will solve one’s problems, not the individual.

The rich generally create the jobs, needed to put those roving bands of hoodlums to work. It is time for leadership to step up and stand up for the youth – those teachers, those politicians, those parents who need to instill a sense of hope, self-reliance and yes, industry (invite it by taxing it less), will, over time, bring this nation back to its senses. There is no time like the present to start the conversation. There has never been a time in our history where leadership that will inspire youth to be self-made, generous to their neighbors, and ashamed of base behavior is so badly needed.

Having seen the cycle of poverty and resultant crime and the changes in both over a period of forty odd years, one is convinced that this nation has opportunity aplenty when all children are encouraged, when all are told they are not “this group or that group” rather American’s with equal opportunity to succeed or fail, based on their own merits, and that there will be no government standing ready to sweep their mistakes under the proverbial rug. We need leadership with the moral authority to lead our nation forward, not merely economically but to instill a sense of value in each and every child, a sense of what is right with American that will allow them to become whatever they work hard at to become – to rely on no-one, but to help those in need. That leader may be a man, it may be a woman, but it is with a deep hope that this individual puts aside fears of a hostile media, and a hostile political party (as the individual in mind are considered outsiders), and has the courage to lead us out of this mess.

Trump – Is He Back In the 2012 GOP Race? - Don’t Rule Him Out!!

It began yesterday with the observations at The Wrap.com on an interview on Fox and Friends with Donald Trump – (video below), where Trump said, he’s not ruling out a run at the 2012 GOP race - and, as of today it has gone Hollywood, literally The Hollywood Reporter also picked up on Trumps reversal. In the interview, Trump views the current field as lacking – Trump does not see those individuals beating Obama – The interview, below, is telling, Trump continues to site the fact that one gives up so much, personally when one runs, but he leaves the door open for a return to the GOP field. It’s been incredibly boring since Donald Trump left the race, and those that would have voted Trump (Democrats and Independents), are having a difficult time viewing the balance of the field seriously.

Trump Expected To Announce Today – Under Pressure by NBC – Network Calling Trump on the Hour – Offers $60Million. Huckabee Endorses.

Trump to Announce Presidential Run Decision Today, According to the NY Post(Photo: impeachmentofobama.com

Donald Trump - Is he in, or is he out for 2012? That’s the question that the New York Post headlines will be answered soon: “Big Trump News Today”

Donald Trump plans to announce today whether he'll fire himself from "Celebrity Apprentice," a source told The Post last night.
The billionaire businessman, who has been mulling a run for the White House, has been trying to decide whether to trade his TV show for politics.
He is scheduled to meet with NBC's bosses early this morning to give them his final decision -- just hours before they are supposed to present their plans for the new fall season to advertisers.

Apparently, this is supposed to take place this morning, when NBC unveils its fall lineup – but, according to the UK’s “Daily Mail” the line-up has already been released, and it includes the “Celebrity Apprentice”, however, it is with or without Trump. NBCs, Greenblatt, apparently had no clear answer as to Trumps decision, however - “Asked if this meant NBC had a commitment from Mr. Trump that he wouldn't run for president, he said: 'We're putting a pin in that for the next 24 hours or so. Things will become clearer soon.” (Daily Mail)
However, The Mail went on to speculate about Trumps future plans, citing the announcement from Trump on Fox News’ “Huckabee”, immediately following the Governors decision not to enter the race, and Trumps response, that it was not “bad news’ for him that Huckabee had bowed out, rather, that although Huckabee would make a great president (paraphrased), other candidates are well pleased.

Governor Huckabee returned the Trump compliment by endorsing Trump’s candidacy.(State Column)

When Huckabee made his decision public, Trump apparently, must have been one of the few individuals who actually knew Huckabee’s decision, with the exception of family; Huckabee held his cards close until the final moments. With the immediate appearance of the Trump segment, which was obviously pre-recorded, it brings up the question as to just how close Trump has become to the former Governor, and Huckabee supporters, though Face book and other social network sites are now asking if there might not be a Trump-Huckabee ticket in the works – It all remains to be seen, however, for months Huckabee has spoken publicly and positively about a Trump candidacy.

As to NBC’s courtship of Trump “not to run”, Politico, on Friday reported that the network was calling Trump “hourly” and that the offer for Trump to stay on was $60 million.

One has to take into consideration several factors, one of which, although $60 Million may sound like a great deal to the average citizen and even some new members of Congress, it is a drop in the proverbial hat to Trump, who is estimated to be worth billions. Trump has noted several times that he would rather not run for the Presidency, but feels he has little choice as he feels he can right the nation economically - No matter how one slices it, that type of commitment comes from a moral perspective – which would appeal to Mike Huckabee, as well as the millions (twenty plus) of Evangelicals that would cast their vote for man. As well as moderate democrats who are disenfranchised from the current administration, republicans who, contrary to the popular media theory and certain polls by Public Policy Polling, suggesting that Trump is only relevant to the “birther issue”, independents, and surprising, the upcoming “youth vote”. That would be the new generation of voters eligible to go to the polls for the first time in 2012. With a certain segment of the electorate, they may not be able to pass a U.S. Citizenship test (which subject was brought up on Mike Huckabee’s show this weekend), but they do know celebrities, and to the average student voter, Trump, trumps Obama for name recognition – they also listen to him – not the birther issue, they give that a pass, it is the issue of securing our border, and bringing jobs back to the U.S.. The unemployment rate about teens and those new college graduates is higher than the national average by some estimates as much as 3 to 1.

Those that would hope Trump is finished (and not having a crystal ball, the announcement today, may include Trump’s bowing out of a race), and point to his big dollar contracts with NBC and ratings as the reason he would not run, apparently missed a recent interview where Trump opined on the attacks he’s suffered by just suggesting a run, let alone what will take place if he does run for the GOP nomination – his response was that he was “thick-skinned”. Trump, even if one only knows the man from a perspective of Reality Television, must understand that he is not to be taken lightly and insults, being what they are, even from those he knows in the media and entertainment business as “friends”, will only spur on Trump, and be one of the factors that contribute to a Trump run.

Therefore, should an announcement from Trump come today – (or rumors of a decision from the Post and or elsewhere) – it will either cement the GOP field a bit more firmly and or leave it wide open for those so called “lower-tiered” candidates to actually have a shot of winning the GOP nomination: the list includes: Newt Gingrich, Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Senator Rick Santorum, businessman Herman Cain and Ron Paul. Note: Massachusetts’ former Governor, Mitt Romney, has not formally announced, but has begun an “exploratory committee”, and continues to have difficulty with his version of Universal Health Care, which was used as the model for the national plan. In addition, when one looks at Public Policy Polling, or other pollsters, state by state polls, Romney is only competitive in certain states, which suggests a re-run of 2008. To view State by State polls and commentary by the Democrat leaning, but in the end stages of any political contest, accurate, pollster Public Policy Polling go to: www.publicpolicypolling.com/surveys.asp

The landscape, however, is subject to major change should Trump be a go today (or when he is ready to announce), as the media, blogs and pundits have indicated that Trump is only it for show ratings, leaving many who might choose Trump to back, hesitant to say the least. Should Trump announce in the affirmative to a run, that potential voter hesitation will no longer exist and the result will be more accurate polling vis a vis the entire “announced” field is subject to change. Additionally, one might find one Mitt Romney no longer sitting on the fence, but making an announcement to run (or he may also make an announcement similar to Huckabee’s).
One has to face the facts, the individuals who have put themselves forth, regardless of the media’s take on them, or their qualifications as defined by the media (all of them are qualified by virtue of the U.S. Constitution), will be the choices for those who would prefer to see a new President in the White House. With Gallup latest poll showing the Presidents’ approval rating down again; as of last Thursday, 48 approved, with 43 disapproving, down from a high during the Bin Laden announcement of 52. This leaves the President in a precarious position; when approval ratings do not break 50%, suggests, this “close” to a general election, that the position is up for grabs and any race would be close. Should the numbers move lower, into the 40’s, and then it would be, historically similar to the 1980’s Carter-Reagan scenario. Note: Gallup is one conservative pollster, and by conservative, one is not speaking of political ideology rather a very careful approach, therefore, these results should be used when making any “predictions”, which, as anyone is aware, at this point, over a year away from the actual election and without a firm GOP candidate or leader in the field, for that matter (with Huckabee out of the race, one should note), everything is subject to change.
What will be interesting is how Romney begins to poll, within the next 2 to 3 months as the field does become firm, specifically in the south and Midwest, which are critical to any GOP nomination. The last two major names from the 2008 Presidential race that have not confirmed: Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney (even though Romney has committed to exploring the possibility).

Many pundits have suggested that the field is weak, more due to a lack of interest in “perceived minor players” with so many “big names” still undecided, but one must recall the 2008 cycle, when one unknown Governor from Arkansas, upset the media’s predictions of a Romney Rule, and beat him soundly in the caucus state.
Not for nothing, both Trump and Ron Paul have been in Romney back yard in the past few weeks, Trump speaking back to back in New Hampshire (on the street, greeting people, and one to the chamber), and Paul in Massachusetts. One final note about Trump: In speaking with one who has a better insight into the Trump phenomena than this blogger, noted that if Trump was on the ground in New Hampshire shaking hands, then he is definitely serious about a run. The world, the media, and the rest of us regular voters, will find out soon enough, be it today, or in Trumps own time – one only wonders will Huckabee make a video appearance after Trumps decision?

Donald Trump to Speak to Nashua NH Sold Out Chamber of Commerce Business Expo Today – Telegraph to Carry Speech Live – Latest PPP Poll Analysis

Donald Trump will speak at the Nashua, New Hampshire Chamber of Commerce today – the event, a business expo at the 700 member Chamber is sold out. The Nashua Telegraph will carry the event live on its website at www.nashuatelegraph.com/topics/trumpnashua. Trump will be speaking at the event luncheon, which will take place from 12 to 2.

Trump, has indicated that he will make an announcement regarding a run as a candidate for the GOP 2012 Presidential nomination, after the end of his realty TV show, “Celebrity Apprentice”. Trump, who began by polling at the top of the GOP pack when included in 2012 polls, had fallen to 6th place in Public Policy Polling’s May 10th National poll. Although the pollster has been described as “a firm with connections to prominent Democrats”. and is known to lean towards Democrats, it is usually, towards the end of any given campaign cycle, accurate within the margin of error. The pollster’s releases have focused heavily on the Obama birth certificate issue, when including Trump in its polls and specifically highlighting the issue in connection with trump in all releases.

The latest poll of 602 likely GOP voters included Trump on Question #5 for favorability; with a 34% favorability rating, 12% unsure. Palin had the highest at rating at 61%, besting Gingrich, Romney, Trump and Huckabee. In the 6th question Trump is included in a field of eight candidates and one category: undecided – he places above Michele Bachman and Tim Pawlenty, ties with Ron Paul and polls behind Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and Romney. Mike Huckabee takes the lead on this poll with 19%, 11% was undecided as to any of the potential announced or unannounced candidates. The poll included the question of the President’s birthplace with 48% of respondents believing the President was born in the U.S. (Public Policy Polling). In the prior National Poll released in April Trump was not included in the favorability questions, rather thrown in on Question 9 as a "finally what if?" question. The pollster has included Trump on all State polls since April: polls are available here.

Although jumped on by the media as “proof” that Trump has taken a dive among GOP voters nationwide, Trump’s political fortunes are subject to the reality of the economy and specifically Donald Trump. It remains to be seen how the media will cover the speech today at the Nashua Chamber: expect questions regarding Trump as a “racist” on his questions on the Presidents birth certificate and or the latest PPO poll. The media has taken a keen interest in Trump; which has taken away some of the vitriol aimed at Sarah Palin. Huckabee, who also has yet to announce due to contractual arrangements with Fox (similar to Trump and Palin), has enjoyed the least scathing coverage by the general media. Should Trump, who appears to be rather thick skinned when it comes to the media, announce his candidacy, (based most likely on internal polling, which one can bet the house, is taking place), it will be interesting to see how the media, and Hollywood react. Incidentally, the media to date also considers Trump potential candidacy as “not serious”, viewing it as a “publicity stunt”. In this opinion, it is not only a serious bid, but one that will surprise and in all likelihood Trump the media.

2012 GOP Update – Trump Heads to New Hampshire - Ups the Ante with Meet and Greets with Likely Voters Today – Close To MA Far From Hollywood

Donald Trump first foray today into New Hampshire, image Western Journalism.com



From The Union Leader, Granite State: Donald Trump, potential 2012 GOP Presidential candidate, has two visits to the Nation’s first primary state: one today in Portsmouth, and one on May 11th at a Greater Nashua Chamber event. The stops today will include several businesses in Portsmouth to meet with locals, and although one shop has confirmed the visit with local media, the New Hampshire GOP noted that the schedule has not been published. Trump is expected to travel with heavy security and will make stops in Dover and Portsmouth. The shop owner that “leaked” the visit to local media, Maine-ly New Hampshire, has hosted candidates from both political parties over the years, and features products made in the Granite State. The fact that Trump is headed to New Hampshire willing to meet with “the locals” indicates just how serious he is regarding a bid for the presidency. It will be interesting to see how and if the U.S. media covers this first foray – if they intend to focus on the more controversial subjects that Trump brings to bear or if they will stray from the sensational and report on Trumps economic views, which are, obviously the businessman’s strong suit.

Trump, who in recent polls, from several different pollsters including Gallup, where he tied for first place with Mike Huckabee, indicate that he is, at the present time, viewed as a viable contender for the top slot. Although he has been compared by blogs and some in the media, to 1992 candidate, independent Ross Perot, since a report in a a Wall Street Journal article earlier in April, indicated that he might consider running as an independent if he did not win the nomination. However, since that report was released, Trump has since made statements that he would not do anything to jeopardize the chances of getting Obama out office, including a run as an independent.

Hollywood continues to weigh in, first comedian Jerry Seinfeld, then Charlie Sheen and Robert Di Nero offered their “take” on Trump as a “used car salesman” and “terrible person” (LA Times Blogs), which, one has to take with a grain of salt, even when Trump fires back and defends himself. The fact that the aforementioned, although talented in their fields, could use the “exposure”, as the media is sure to report, ad naseum that Trump is a “horrible person” for calling out members of the Hollywood crowd, it remains to be seen just how much weight, if any, these types of individuals carry – the first response is that they will of course, appeal to a fan base that is like-minded, and secondly, not unlike Tina Fey’s beef with Sarah Palin, can justify their own failures and low ratings and show cancellations (or lack of any job period), by blaming the politician’s or potential politician’s “followers”, thus giving them a few more minutes in the spotlight.

Trump, whose popularity, especially among Republican and Republican leaning independents, is based most likely on the fact that he is straight forward and says what the thinks, regardless of how not politically correct he is when making a certain statement. Frankly, it can be refreshing to hear someone lay it out, fearless of the consequences of speaking one’s own mind – it is especially appealing to those who might now be suffering from the nations economic malaise, who are ready to forgive a media faux pax such as asking for a birth certificate and or college thesis from the President, in exchange for business intellect and a chance that Trump might just right the ship and bring badly needed jobs into the country. One cannot imagine Trump for example, setting up a commission to study a problem that is causing $5.00 to $6.00 per gallon gasoline, (when as Sarah Palin recently noted, individual states have already done these studies), rather he would most likely tell OPEC where to go, while lifting the ban on oil drilling by U.S. companies in the U.S., and cutting the Federal Gas Tax until supply drove down the price of oil. That perceived reaction is fueling his popularity.

Back to the New Hampshire visit – not for nothing is this possibly one of the strongest tests for Trump as he goes into Mitt Romney’s back yard – it will of course, remain to be seen how many Massachusetts New Hampshire bound cars will be heading to Portsmouth today, not to beat the sales tax (of course that is a plus), but to possibly get to meet Trump and ask him a question or two? It is, after all, only an hour from Boston, 2 hours from Springfield, and about a half hour from the border town of Haverhill – a proverbial hop, skip and jump in terms of New England travelers. Judging from the Google queries for Maine-ly New Hampshire (or Maine-ly New England), one can bet that the coverage and or the crowds will bode well for New Hampshire businesses, as well as Trump. (As of 6:22 a.m. Wed. 4/27/11)

Gallup: Trump (Tied with) Huckabee, Romney Palin Lead Pack of “Possible” GOP Presidential Contenders – Trump is Serious

The 2012 Pack: Trump, Huckabee, Romney & Palin - image sources: westernjournalist, truthwins, business week and buddhistblog



Gallupincluded Donald Trump in a first polling of Republican potential GOP candidates, with the result that Trump tied with Huckabee for the top slots, followed by Romney and Palin, the balance of the 11 potential candidates did not receive double digit support. What was most interesting was the breakdown of the type of support these “candidates” might receive: According to Gallup Trump’s strong suit is moderate and liberal Republicans, with Huckabee garnering the majority of support from Conservative Republicans. The Poll conducted over five days and released on the 21st, included 1000 plus Republican and Republican Independent leaning voters, with 10% having no opinion when Trump is included in the mix. A second segment of the poll, without Trump, keeps the Leaders in the same positions: Huckabee, Romney and Palin, however, the no opinions jump to 17%.

With Romney one of the few out of the 15 categories (two of which are “other” and “no opinion”), who has set up an “exploratory committee, the results speak volumes regarding those who have not announced, or do not intend to set up such a committee, and their ability to be competitive in the field. The top three who have yet to announce due to contractual agreements: Trump, Huckabee and Palin, will, undoubtedly expand their leads once the formal announcements are made beginning in May/June of this year.
Gallup goes on to note that although the front runners in early polling may start strong, they do not necessarily end up with the nomination, giving the following examples: Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton in 2007, and Joe Lieberman in 2003.

The Gallup is one pollster who is “conservative”, not in ideology by in careful analysis of the field, and unlike the rest of the media/pollsters who are impatient with the lack of “publicly committed candidates”, does not entirely see this as a weak point as far as the process is concerned, cautioning that it is early in the game. This might be due to the fact that Trump was, until yesterday when this report was undoubtedly released, not considered a serious candidate.

That changed with remarks and phone calls made over the past twenty four hours. Trump called on ultra conservative pundit, Charles Krauthammer to make a case for his seriousness as a candidate, convincing Krauthammer that Trump, despite Krauthammer’s views on the man being somewhat less than glowing, is serious about the candidacy.(Source: Politico)

Additionally, during an interview on Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren’s “On the Record”, a telephone interview between Donald Trump and the Fox News Host, made it very clear that Trump intends to run, with an announcement set after the last airing of the NBC hit “Celebrity Apprentice”. Trump, also made it clear he would do nothing that would endanger efforts to remove Obama from the White House, vis a vis an independent campaign, it is clear that Trump believes, and the poll supports, he would be able to run as the Republican nominee, not as an independent candidate. Trump, with his take no prisoners approach to interviews, went on to disuses a wide range of topics, giving a variety of answers that appeared to be “half” of what the man might be thinking – he went on to level Karl Rove for his recent criticism of Trump’s candidacy by pointing out that it was Rove’s advise and leadership position within the Bush White House that drove the Republican Party down to the point where it would have been impossible for any Republican to be elected. It was a pointed, to the point, Trump style drubbing of the former White House advisor who many moderate Republicans consider irrelevant – or those Republican’s outside of the Beltway. The Video is below.

When the field of what will become, when late spring and summer brings the “front-runners” announcements, firm the real speculation will begin. Going out on the proverbial limb, as all those who play reverse Monday Morning Quarterbacking: It is, from this point of view, a matter of time before Palin and Huckabee join Trump and Romney, with Trump appearing to be the one of the three to accounted earliest (Palin may surprise), It would therefore, be a natural to pair one candidate who is able to reach the larger voting bloc, or those Moderate Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents, with one who would be able to attract the hard core conservatives. That leaves two at the top, one of which would gain the nomination via the primary process, with the other left in a strong position to join the ticket as V.P. Knowing now that Trump watches polls, and if the current trends continue: Trump would have the nomination, with likely V.P. Mike Huckabee (who has publicly said he would not turn it down (see Ingraham interview). Of course, this is based on the assumption of the current poll, which has Palin and Romney paired as appealing to voters from all ideological views of those polled by Gallup.

It would appear, that a ticket with Donald Trump/Mike Huckabee, would cover all bases, including those Democrats (moderate)who are now looking for an alternative and droves of voters who are seeking someone who is not a “politician” in the traditional sense (which includes Sarah Palin).

Of course, it is far too early to speculate, although it is in the nature of the political junkie to do so, but, this one blog strongly believes that should Trump announce, and he is serious, he will win the nomination and go on to win the Presidency. It is far too easy to criticize the man’s failings, be it his hair, or his way of attacking an interview, with the gusto and non-politically correct demeanor which is endearing Donald Trump to many both inside and outside the Republican Party. It will, of course, be the press, as well as those on the left, and yes, the Cocktail Party Establishment Republican’s who will continue to downplay Trumps importance, and dare one say - in the exact same manner in which decades ago, they downplayed one Ronald Reagan.

Note to Trump and Palin: Massachusetts is not a winner take all primary state – there are those who would work for a Trump or Palin ticket in the Commonwealth – it’s a mere 15% that places one on the ballot, and judging from those searching for “How to Volunteer for Trump (or Palin)”, coming from Massachusetts (no kidding), it would behoove anyone considering a Presidential run, to set up camp, even grassroots, a minimum of 4 months before the primary, and invest a little time in the State that gave the nation: Barney Frank, Ted Kennedy, Richard Neal, and a host of nefarious characters – not to mention one top GOP competitor, Mitt Romney.

Clip from Trump Fox Interview


or Link: Trump on Rove

2012 GOP Update: Donald Trump Tops National Poll – Leads Romney by 11 Points

Donald Trump has taken a commanding lead in the fourth national poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, a Democrat leaning pollster. The firm, regardless of political party, has shown to be extremely accurate in the end stages of political campaigns, having called Republican Senator Scott Brown’s win in the Massachusetts special election, January, 2010, spot on.

In the editorial which accompanies the polls release, the pollster focuses heavily on the issue of President Obama’s birth certificate, but does not focus on Trump’s (or any of the candidates) views regarding the economy, illegal immigration or any other “hot button” issue that might be considered of import to conservatives in general. This consistent focus from the left on this particular issue does not appear to be hurting Trump overall.

Trump is not included in the first eight question of the poll, missing is the question of favorability, it is almost as if Trump is thrown in as an afterthought. However, when Trump is included in a field of eight potential candidates including Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, he takes a commanding lead: 26 percent of the total, with Huckabee at 17% and Mitt Romney at 15%. This is the first national poll which has seen any Republican potential candidate take more than a 6 point lead. Question 10 focuses on the question of supporting a candidate who believed President Obama was not born in the United States: 38% were willing, 39% were “not sure” and 23% answered no. The balance of the pollsters questions focus on political ideology, age and gender demographics.

The survey was conducted using a sample of 400. Trump is expected to announce his candidacy after the final airing of his NBC reality television series “Celebrity Apprentice”, May 15th.

2012 Trump Polls High in New Hampshire, Trump Train Heads to Florida – Trumps Appeal – He’s Not a Politician

As the “Google News Alerts” mount daily for one Donald Trump, real estate mogul, reality television owner/producer, and all around Renaissance Man, one finds his bid for the Presidency a topic of both derision and excitement. The derision is from those that would maintain the status quo, regardless of Party, he is too “right” for the Progressives, and too “left” for the Beltway pundits, which, for some reason unknown to any of those who would comment on a Trump bid for the Presidency, makes him perfect for just about anyone who currently dislikes politicians – from both the right and the left.

Public Policy Polling, a firm that does not hide its obvious affiliation to the Democrat Party, included Trump in one recent poll, the New Hampshire Republican Poll. The poll released on April 5th, and taken between March 31st and April 3rd, places Trump right behind neighbor and 2008 GOP Presidential Primary runner, Mitt Romney, by 27% to Trumps 21%, which is stunning considering: Romney has been open about his intent to run for the 2012 nomination basically since losing the 2008 nomination. Although not officially announced, he had been considered by pollsters to be one of the 3 top frontrunners (with Huckabee and Palin) since polling on GOP “potential candidates” began immediately following the 2010 midterms in November.

Trump on the other hand, made a few statements at that time about a potential run, and then went full bore the past two weeks. In two weeks, Trump surged past all the “potentials” to within points of Romney in Romney’s back yard. The pollster concluded that those in the GOP in New Hampshire must all be “Birthers” (or those who feel there may be something amiss with Obama’s Birth Certificate), due to Trump sharing the same belief (or questioning why the President hasn’t released a long form certificate.) In this particular poll, Trump is thrown in as an “afterthought” – the 20th question of the poll asks: “Here’s one last scenario: what if Donald Trump ran for President and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump.
Who would you vote for?” – the Preceding 19 questions do not mention Trump in the list of options.

The following polls by this firm by state (having to do with the 2012 contest, both GOP and national), Georgia, (also released on the 5th and taken March 31-April 3), and Florida GOP (released on the 5th as well but taken between the 24th and 27th) make no mention of Trump. Although the firm noted, in an email inquiry, (paraphrasing) that it was waiting for Trump to seriously announce his intentions before polling him along with the other “potential candidates” (who have not announced), the strength shown by Trump in New Hampshire should see him included in all future polls, however, the language used in the release (he appeals to “birthers”) for example, appears almost to intentionally dismiss Trump.

Be that as it may, Trump is headed for Florida and will be the keynote speaker at a April Tea Party rally. Florida is a key state in any primary, along with Iowa and New Hampshire, where Trump has boots on the ground and appearances scheduled.

What happens when one mentions Donald Trump in conversation outside of the newsroom or the Beltway? “I like Trump – he’s not a politician”, “Trump tells it like it is”, “Trump knows business, and how to fix this mess”, the list goes on: Not one mention of Obama’s Birth Certificate, not one mention of a Cup of Tea with Donald Trump – mainly because those conversations are being held in Massachusetts and New York with a cross section of Republicans, Independents and yes, Democrats. The Donald crosses racial, socio-economic and party lines, in blue states where people have had enough of politicians. One might consider a “poll” of approximately 100 individuals, asked one question, not particularly scientific (absolutely correct), but receives the same or similar answer – “He’s not a politician”. Therefore, to those who would poll, it would be interesting to see how Trump fares with the rest of those who lead the pack of the GOP candidates, but have also, “yet to announce”, should he poll single digits, so be it, but it would be fair, would it not, to see how Trump performs in general, a poll the public has access to.

Donald Trump has, in all likelihood, not toyed with the idea of “running for President”, but has done his research, including internal polling. This may have occurred around the time he decided to tell everyone that would listen what he thought about everything going on with our country. What is interesting is that, seemingly out of nowhere, and in the space of two weeks, Trump, went from a “celebrity throwing his name around but not serious” to a man hitting every talk show, network and street corner.”. He had me at “put soldiers on the border”, and his attitude that America is exceptional.

Prior to that, it was difficult to take him seriously, or more to the point, there were questions on my mind that Trump had an ulterior political motive that had zip to do with the GOP, and possibly a Democrat candidate (see hypothetical blog post here: Trump and the Obama Birth Issue).

For now, I’ve changed my mind and, along with several other Bay State political junkies (from a variety of political affiliations), are waiting for Trump to make it official, in order to volunteer for his campaign. It is not about Obama’s birth certificate, nor is it about the Tea Party (although I do admire the Constitution and applaud those who put the intent of our founders first, along with our fiscal house), it is about who would be best suited to drag us out of the depths we now face, and has the will and the passion and yes, the arrogance (which is necessary, along with a little bit of crazy) to even want the job.

What to watch for: the Negatives which are sky high compared to one Sarah Palin! Consider those who continue to write about “Donald Trump’s Fake Presidential Candidacy”, and then bring up an issue that would put Trump in a category as a “Real Presidential Candidate” Negatives equal a threat to the status quo, be it right or left. Should Trump be perfect, absolutely not! As a moderate conservative living in Massachusetts, the fact that any one candidate could be perfect appears contradictory – that candidate could not be human. Trump, far from perfect, but making no apologies, is extremely appealing.

Trump and Clinton 2012: Trump to New Hampshire and Iowa Hitting the right Meetings, Hiring Staff, LA Times Makes Case for Clinton Run

Trump In on 2012 - image New York Post

What are the odds of both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton being Top of the Ticket 2012 Candidates? If one is prone to placing a wager now and then, the opportunity exists in several off-shore sports betting websites. For example: Both Trump and Clinton are on the “board” on linesmaker.com with Clinton at a 15/1 and Trump (recently added) at 50/1. Most wagers are going to Sarah Palin who is at 10/1 and Barack Obama who is at 4/5 (the incumbent, one should note, always has the higher odds this early in the game, regardless of actual outcome). What are the odds of the American Public hiring a President who has either a “rock star personality” or has been involved in “entertainment”, appearing on Television shows? Those odds become fairly high, when considering the nation’s history since 1980 vis a vis Barack Obama and one Ronald “Death Valley Days” Reagan.

Therefore, all those pundits who operate out of ivory towers, use charts, or other props, and think Beltway, Beltway; Beltway just may be out of luck this time around. Obviously, rumors are rumors and wishful Monday Morning Quarterbacking is what it is, however, as to the actual who would the U.S. electorate accept (overall), one can bet it will be someone who is easily recognized as a celebrity of sort, someone who is in the spotlight, has been seen by millions of TV viewers and is both loved and hated at the same time. One just has to take a quick look at the GOP hopefuls who are polling at the top of the heap of “those who may step forward”, such as Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin. Although Trump is only recently on the board, he’s in the same position, except for two stunning facts: He is, granted a “celebrity”, but he’s also a businessman with zero ties to traditional politics. That’s points for Trump.

Understanding that last night on the Fox Program “The O’Reilly Factor”, veteran journalist Bernie Goldberg dropped “the Bomb “that Trump is indeed, running for President, and he cited “sources”.

Perhaps they were sources such as New Hampshire’s WMUR, a must read for political junkies everywhere: Back in mid-March of this year, WMUR reported that Trump was heading to the Granite State to attend an all-important “Politics and Egg” Series in June. Further, Trump has reached out to New Hampshire foremost politico in order to “set up meetings” – named in the WMUR “scoop”, one Congressman Charlie Bass. Congressman Bass is a Republican Congressman from the 2nd District, who served 12 terms before being bested by a Democrat in 2006, and was reelected in 2010. How influential is Bass? Bass hails from an influential New Hampshire Political family according to all business.com, noted as The Clinton's or Rockefeller's of New Hampshire.

That aside, Politico noted back in March that Trump was actually looking to hire staff in New Hampshire.

There have been myriad reports on Trumps impending Trip to Iowa, (See this blog.)

Those sources alone would be enough to indicate that Trump is more than “thinking about” entering the 2012 race, he is “exploring”, interviewing staff and laying groundwork.


Will She? Clinton 2012 - image southasiaspeaks wordpress blog

Hillary Clinton’s stock is continuing to rise, as the numbers out on the President continue to plummet, a recent op-ed in the Los Angeles Times bluntly states: Why Clinton Must Run in 2012 and goes on to list the obvious reasons why Hillary must come in and salvage the Democrat Party. The blog, by John Phillips, states the obvious, and what has been obvious to almost every breathing right of extreme left to moderate Democrat that would vote for Clinton in a primary match-up. One need only search this blog for reasons why even a moderate Republican would find Clinton a formidable opponent and ready for “prime time” going back to 2007.

Although it is much less certain that Clinton would enter the race (although there are some valid arguments being med in favor of a Clinton run), Trump looks like a given. If he does not push the rest of the pack (Palin, Romney, Huckabee) to move up their announcement time lines) and begins to poll at least even with the aforementioned, come November of 2011 he’ll be a force that will be difficult to best. The 2012 Presidential Sweepstakes, the best of Reality Television from the GOP Primary to the possible DNC Primary to the General Election.

2012 - Huckabee Leads both GOP and National in Latest Polls - Should Consider Post June Announcement - Opinion

Huckabee - Trump May Give Incentive for Earlier Announcement

a Farleigh Dickenson Poll link here released on the 31st of March, shows Mike Huckabee in a virtual tie with Obama (46/46) for the presidency. Furthermore, Huckabee also leads all “possible Republican Candidates” in Gallup’s “GOP Positive Intensity Tracking” poll. It is just a matter of when, and if, Huckabee will announce his formation of an exploratory committee, that has most media in an uproar as not one candidate (with the exception of Tim Pawlenty), has given an indication that they would announce much before June or later of 2011.

If Huckabee announces sooner than later, however, one can bet his lead would increase exponentially. Given Trumps entrance onto the national 2012 stage, Huckabee should consider the implications, given that some of his base may consider Trump as a viable alternative.

Trump 2012 – Tied with Romney in Latest Poll – Hits the Talk-News Show Circuit - Building Team Iowa

President Trump? Image via hotcurrent.com

Donald Trump is not pulling any punches about his intention to run for the Office of the President, as of yesterday, Trump had hit the news and talk show circuit from “The View” to Fox to CNN. Trump’s in-your-face, reality based style is driving show hosts such as Bill O’Reilly to quip that he’s (paraphrased) genuine, but likely to put up a golf course at the White House! In O’Reilly follow-up interviews on Trump with political analyst Karl Rove and comedian-pundit Dennis Miller, Rove apparently was stunned over O’Reilly asking if “The Donald” had a chance. Rove could not say no, but appeared somewhat uncomfortable, in that beltway, insider, I know it all, Rovian style. Miller on the other hand was straight up and appeared serious when he said Trump had his vote.

Watching Trump is, in a word, refreshing. At first, one might have been taken aback, and quite frankly could not comprehend Trump as a GOP frontrunner, let alone a Trump Presidency. In fact, this blogger was wondering what other candidate Trump might be trying to help by appearing to enter the fray. After yesterday, and reviewing clips of the usual circuit, the fact is clear: Trump is serious and Trump wants to be the President.

What’s wrong with Donald Trump? He has a plenty of history, of which everyone inside and outside the United States is aware – the good, the bad and the ugly. Trump pulls no punches, and has fans on all sides of any aisle – he’s a threat to the established GOP, and is certainly entertaining. As to Rove’s wondering aloud if Trump would have the experience necessary to run the Oval Office, in light of the present administrations lack thereof, and subsequent state of the nation – Rove believes the American People are looking for the experienced politician - seriously.
Apparently, those who think an inexperienced, nationally and internationally known personality, who has the intellect, the money and the straightforward manner of Trump, might not have the backing of those would voted in the last election based on a “rock star” image, think again.

Trump is no dummy, he’s straight up, shoots from the hip, and does not shy away from the subjects that most of the “frontrunners” or those experienced politician’s might, he’s speaking to the people, those that do have questions regarding where the President might have been born, those who would like to see soldiers on the border, those who think we do have a world-wide “Muslim Problem”, and the list goes on. Trump is not only throwing the proverbial red meat to the rank and file conservatives, he’s got the Tea Party Points down, and the taxpayers points down – he’s taking no prisoners and he’s making no apologies. He speaks in such a manner as to say something that one might think outrageous, until Trump lays it out and suddenly, realizing he’s sincere, he gets points for being straight forward and making sense out of something ludicrous. That man is no dummy.

Now that Trump has taken it upon himself to step it up, one has to wonder when those who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for summer to roll around before announcing might not want to show their hands a tad sooner, if, and this is a big if, they had the intent to run at all. This includes Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, two of the front runners in most polls. Mitt Romney, already in, but not officially, will, in all likelihood, fare about as well as he did in 2008. Not that Mitt Romney is not sincere about his quest for the office, nor is he lacking the intellect, business, or governing experience that might appeal to Karl Rove, however, that’s the point. The individual that breaks out of the box in this 2012 pack of announced, semi-announced and yet to announce candidates will be the non-traditional candidate. The atmosphere of the nation has not changed; it if nothing less it is more anti-big government than in the 2010 elections. All one has to do is ask those sixty some odd freshmen members of Congress with no experience that swept into office in a group in November of 2010 if someone who is unknown, but has the smarts, convictions and love of nation, can get elected.

The State Column is reporting that Harris Interactive has Trump tied with Romney and behind Palin and Huckabee (who have yet to announce) . In addition, The State also indicates Trump is in the process of building a team in Iowa. Although one may be reading this in total disbelief, think back to 2008 when it was apparent that Hillary Clinton, with her experience, and the popular vote would surely be the nominee, and then along came Barack (granted propelled by the Super Delegates at the DNC rather than by any popular vote).

Trump, is going to be the one to watch in the GOP primary, and the debates will be most likely be the highest rated programs of this sort, since Neilson began rating. Imagine the following line-up, Pawlenty, Ron Paul (assumed as he always runs), Palin (if she enters), Bachman (Tea Party all but announced), Romney (and yes, they will all go after Romney care), and Huckabee, and the few unknowns (That are either out there but not on this blogs radar yet). Talk about entertainment! Is it any wonder the media (networks) are in a state of convulsion as so few have announced and they have debates schedule as early as May of this year?

Donald Trump current social media links:

Donald Trump Facebook Like!

Donald Trump Twitter Follow

Fox News O’Reilly Interview


Trump on CNN:

CNN Piers Morgan Trump and Weiner (D-NY) video (Embed Disabled by CNN) talks policy

Trump on Ingraham

Media in Snit Over Slow Start of 2012 Debates – Democrats First To Roll Out Pre-Fall Presidential Debates in 2003 – Enter Last - Finish First

Obama and a field of "potential GOP Contenders", image: The State.com

The New York Timesis wondering why there may be few if any Republican Presidential Contenders at the first televised debate on May 2nd. They cite the standard “Republican Strategist” as saying GOP potential candidates may not want to face a hostile media (NBC and politico), the Times wonders if the GOP Candidates would dare not appear at a Fox News Debate scheduled 3 days later on May 5th. They also offer the dire warning of entering the race later than sooner, as being somewhat of a political disaster for a candidate, pointing out the brief candidacy of Republican Fred Thompson.

Meanwhile, the latest Gallup poll shows Huckabee with the lead over a field of seventeen potential, but yet to officially announce, candidates. In the Gallup Poll, Huckabee leads, followed by Romney and Palin, with Trump on the Gallup rolls, 2 points behind the candidate most likely to announce first, Tim Pawlenty. There are four candidates in this particular scenario that garner double digits: Huckabee, Romney, Palin and Gingrich. The Gallup articles states there are no clear frontrunners this late in the game, and notes that the 1000 people polled, apparently are not galvanized behind any one candidate.

Talk about stating the obvious. If, for example the field included ten officially announced candidates, one would bet that, in the reality of this extremely early stage in presidential contests, the results might be the same.

Going far back into the history of Presidential Debates and announcements to run, one finds that for the 2004 presidential contest, the earliest recorded debate took place on May 3rd, 1999 in California. This was the DNC debate noted as the earliest recorded and featured Howard Dean, John Edwards (considered the front runner), John Kerry (who eventually won the nomination and lost to President George W. Bush, and rounding out the field were Gephardt and Lieberman. Source WSWS.org (World Socialist Web Site) Prior to the Democrats starting the trend of the screamingly early debate, debates for both major political parties were held later in the year preceding the general election, and in some instances, candidates did not attend nor announce their intent to run, until after the first two debates were held.

On November, 29, 1999, George Bush entered the debate arena, skipping two prior debates. (McCook Daily Gazette). The first GOP debates of the 2000 General were held in the later half of October 1999, two weeks apart. (Washington Post) On the DNC side, Bradley did not announce his intent to run against Gore until December of 1999, even though Gore had announced earlier in the year. In that case, Gore, who was the sitting Vice President under Bill Clinton, did not anticipate a serious challenge. In this one scenario, with Bradley entering “late” in that year, Gore did go onto win the nomination. However, one might have anticipated it a given, as he was, again, the sitting Vice President and therefore “heir to the throne”.

In the case of the GOP nominees, and their late to the debate, Gorge W. Bush, all should know the outcome; G.W. Bush went on to two terms in the White House.
Therefore, the media and its close alliance with the DNC (or preference for), may stem from the fact that, although ideologically wedded to the Democratic Party, they also gain from early announcements and debates in “content”. Otherwise they may be forced, at this point, to cover other stories such as the fact that the Pentagon has announced that the U.S. will continue military operations in Libya. (AP) Additionally, the U.S. now has boots in the form of the Marines, on the ground in Libya(National Review), or that the military under Obama’s watch, was involved in murdering civilians and then posing for photos with the deceased”> (Guardian-UK)

Unfortunately, the general media cannot run these stories every day, on several pages within a printed piece, or on the network news, as it would, in all likelihood, make their case for a second Obama Presidential bid a bit more difficult. (Unlike the way any move made by George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan was put under the media microscope and beat to death by the press.)

The fact that Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Donald Trump, Mitt Romney and whoever else may end up jumping into the cesspool left behind by the current administration has yet to announce, is moot and in keeping with the traditional time to announce, rather than the earlier announcements and debates set by the DNC in the 2004 general. On the face of it, the later the date, the better for those weary of politicians from the on-set, additionally, from a Machiavellian point of view, the later the GOP nominees enter the fray, the more difficult for the competition (in this case the President), in terms of having the time to define themselves against a known enemy – with the help of a few friends, consistently beating the drums against the ineptitude of this Pastor, or that Mayor, or God Forbid, the man who wants to tell the President: “Your fired!”. (However, these barbs are available in media daily, just in case).

Should Huckabee skip the first 4 debates for that matter, or Palin or Romney or Gingrich or Trump, they have had the time to meet with constituents, world leaders, small and large businesses, and get a real sense of the magnitude of the task at hand. In addition, should an announcement come in say July of 2011 that gives the public 17 months of speculation to deal with, which might still be too much. Imagine announcement in July and debates in October! Less is more, and in this case, perhaps history will repeat itself (as it is want to do), with the last man in, taking the prize. As Gallup noted in the above reference article, once there are actual announcements of an intent to run, a front runner will appear, in due time, at the right time, just not at a time that is convenient for journalist, pundits and political junkies.

2012 Update: Palin Shores Up Foreign Alliances, Attacks begin from the Right, Trump enters the Fray in Iowa, Odds are on Palin.

Palin in Israel with the Netenyahu's, photo Ben Gershom gpo

As 2011 begins to shape up, although few have announced an actual intent to run for the 2012 GOP nominations, pundits are picking sides, and trips are being made both at home and abroad, to shore up alliances and “test the waters”. Palin’s recent swing through the nations that represent perhaps, our two most stalwart allies outside of Great Britain, India and Israel, made quite the impression according to Irish Central.com. The Indian Press appears to be in agreement as Positive Palin stories abound in India, and more so now that she has set foot in the country. In Israel, Palin met briefly with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, making the promise to return for a lengthier visit in the near future. The Prime Minister – however, what is more interesting is that Netanyahu chose to meet with Palin over a Left Wing American Lobby:

J Street officials, who are in Israel for a meeting of the Knesset Diaspora Affairs Committee, complained on Monday that Netanyahu had refused a request to meet with them but had chosen to meet with Palin.

The left-wing American lobby’s president, Jeremy Ben-Ami, said he had wanted to meet with Netanyahu “to introduce ourselves and explain how we can work together as allies.”

This denotes the respect the Prime Minister has for certain American Dignitaries who carry more weight than say, a left-wing American lobbyist.

Back home, Palin’s first stop in Florida was to a sold out crowd of over 1,000, Naples News Press), where, once again, she noted she was weighing a run in 2012.

Meanwhile, the barbs come from the right National Review reports on pundit Bill Kristol as spouting “"I think she's unlikely to be the Republican nominee, and to be honest I think she probably shouldn't be the Republican nominee for president." in reference to a question posed about a potential Palin run in 2012. Conservative activist, Andrew Breitbart, believes that Palin should be akin to an Oprah, in other words a cheerleader for a particular candidate. His choices: Congresswoman Michelle Bachman and Alan West(Politico) Although more than meeting the conservative criteria, both are, at this point, about as relevant as either Ralph Nader or Ron Paul entering the race, perhaps less so, given national name recognition. West and Bachman have exemplary Tea Party Credentials, and Bachman, to her credit, has a stellar voting record in the Congress – that said, Bachman is being taken seriously by ABC News, where she parrots Palin, as saying “she wants to be part of the conversation in 2012” and goes on to note a decision will be made by summer as to her intent to enter the race for the White House

While in India, Palin noted it was time for a woman to be President of the United States, however, to be clear, she did not mention which woman. (See Irish Central link in first Paragraph as source).


All in all, the odds are currently in favor of a Palin run and win, literally she is, as of now, tied with Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination, and is the leading Republican candidate in offshore betting on the overall 2012 Presidential race at Sportsbook.com Having watched the line in previous elections, the odds on favorite at this point is normally the incumbent, however, the closer one gets to 2012, and the candidates begin to own their positions within the two political parties, the odds tighten. As those bets are placed from both within and outside of the U.S. the fact that Palin is the top choice for the nomination, is interesting in itself. A side note: Odds in 2007, on the 2008 election, Barack Obama has a slightly lower line than Palin does now, with Hillary Clinton in the lead and McCain as the top choice for the Republican ticket, with odds being slightly less than 5,000. It is interesting to see who those in Vegas and elsewhere are willing to put their money on in the hopes of a win, of course, the greater the odds, the greater the payoff, but the point is to be paid off. Of note: Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee are tied for White House win, both slightly behind Mitt Romney (who is right behind Palin) and Trump is now on the board.

Speaking of which, Trump will be making a foray into Iowa for the June Iowa Republican Dinner (Des Moines Register), this, along with his recent Face Book notes to fans about his patriotism and his love of country (as in I want to be able to do this for our country), indicates that “The Donald” is serious about the run.
Stock up on popcorn, this is going to be one of the best GOP presidential hopeful debate years in history.

2012 GOP Update – Donald Trump Begins to Take Shape As Contender – Previously Ignored by Pollsters Tops the Charts

The Donald, If the Desk Fits.......image: youngmoney.com

From Fox News “Trump Torches Republic Field Knocks Boehner”, to Politico’s ”Donald Trump to President Obama: Go To Japan” the man who is the quintessential American success story, is making headlines left and right over the past two weeks – the new moniker assigned by news organizations to describe “The Donald”: billionaire developer. The Wall Street Journal sums up the seriousness of the man’s intent to run for President in financial terms: “Trump on 2012: ‘Part of Beauty of Me Is I’m Very Rich”.

The question arises would Trump fare well among the current crop of “GOP Potential Candidates”? To date, in 2011, one pollster has pitted Trump against Obama – and Trump does very well indeed: The poll, conducted by Newsweek and the Daily Beast (via CNN), has Trump within 2 points of Obama and on par with both Romney and Huckabee in a White House Bid. Although not officially announced, Trump has made more statements of intent than any of the current crop of “possible contenders”.

Seriously Trump? How would he fare with hard-line conservatives? Apparently quite well, as the conservative “Town Hall” has been beating the Trump drum since at least December: ”Donald Trump His Time is Now” to Trump Business Advisor Scopes Out Iowa Politics” is evidence that he is being taken seriously by those CPAC conservatives. (Fiscal Conservatives).


Ronald Reagan, TV Personality to Beloved President image: pdxretro.com

Would Donald Trump fit in the GOP field? Absolutely from this perspective, when the Twenty Mule Team Borax Man indicated he would run for President, America pooh-poohed the idea, at first, and then jumped aboard the Reagan Train with gusto. Donald Trump is not Reagan, by any means, but the times call for an individual who would be crazy enough to want the job of rebuilding the economy and have the smarts to do so.



With this in mind, it may be no wonder that Trump has not been included in the recent polls published by Public Policy Polling Institute. The Democrat leaning firm is apparent in their role as cheerleader for the President, while accurately polling, and taking lumps as they fall. The firm, www.publicpolicypolling.com began taking surveys on GOP potential candidates and matchups with those hypothetical contenders as of the 9th of November, 2010 (or immediately following the 2010 Mid-terms). Donald Trump has been saber rattling prior to the Mid-terms, yet, the pollster has not included Trump in any polling to date, rather, their latest release www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP-Release-US-0317513.pdf” Pits Obama against Charlie Sheen and includes the eccentric television actor in the field with Sarah Palin. The entire poll, in fact, has more to do with Fox News Personalities, and one wonders if this poll was in pure jest, rather than a serious attempt to derive answers. Unfortunately, what the poll, serious or not, appears to show, is that Sheen would, indeed, get the votes. But, missing from this respected firms frivolous and serious state and national polls – The Donald.

The Danger of the GOP not taking Trump seriously: Speaking as a Massachusetts Conservative who watched the 2010 Gubernatorial race as closely as David Axelrod, the triumph of Democrat Deval Patrick, (1 point win), over Republican Charlie Baker, was the “straw candidate” Tim Cahill. Cahill, who mysteriously ran as an independent, did siphon enough votes to push the most unpopular Governor in Massachusetts recent history to a second term. What we do know is that Axelrod, Obama’s campaign advisor, watches Massachusetts as the model for national campaigns. In this wise, those in the GOP should be paying attention to this article at the Wall Street Journal:

“In an interview with ABC’s Good Morning America, developer Donald Trump says he is looking seriously at jumping into the GOP primary battle, and may run as an independent in the general election if he fails to win the nomination. “Part of the beauty of me is that I am very rich,” he said, adding that he was prepared to toss in $600 million of his own cash to fund a campaign.”

“and may run as an independent in the general election if he fails to win the nomination”.

Is it no wonder that fiscal conservatives are looking at the Donald with a fresh set of eyes so to speak, also aware of the Machiavellian methods employed by certain Campaign Managers?

Perhaps fears of Trump actually polling well leaves him out of the field of most pollsters, or perhaps more strange, are they leery of including a less than serious made for TV candidate? That would certainly take the proverbial cake given who is now occupying the White House.

Trump: Start to take the man seriously.

The Prediction Limb: Should both Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Donald Trump enter the primary (and June appears to be the month of choice for announcements, which is leaving the pollsters and the media somewhat unhinged, but unfettered in their potshots on Republicans in general), Huckabee, Trump, Palin, Romney – in that order as the top 4, as the Top three on the road to the White House: (given the makeup of the states) Huckabee and Trump – now that may be the ticket.

Huckabee Continues to Lead Field of GOP Potential Candidates – Gallup Release Tuesday 3-15-11

Huckabee Continues to Dominate Early Polling on GOP 2012 "potential canidates" - image: Huckabee2012.com,

Former two and a half term Governor of the State of Arkansas, 2008 Presidential Candidate and political pundit, television and radio personality and bestselling author, Mike Huckabeecontinues to lead the field of “potential” GOP Candidates in Gallup’s latest release. The field of 12 candidates included: Huckabee, Palin, Gingrich, Romney, Bachman, Paul, Santorum, Pawlenty, Barbour, Daniels, Huntsman and Johnson.

Huckabee continues to dominate polling nationwide, with the bulk of news organizations noting that although Huckabee is the strongest of contenders (who have yet to announce), there is no clear front-runner out of the pack. Of course, it is logical to expect that those answering surveys about potential field of twelve candidates may result in a lower rating for a frontrunner, than say, if that field were reduced to 6 candidates (as in the 2008 presidential primary), where in early stages, Giuliani, who had not announced, led the field, while Mike Huckabee, then a newcomer to the national stage, was a mere blip on the radar. It will be when those five or six, or 10 for that matter, who firmly commit, that a more clear picture of a front runner will emerge, and that may not take place until the later part of 2011. Most announcements regarding the formation of exploratory committees and/or intent to run are not expected until Spring/early summer (based on comments made by those who are featured in the polling data).

Missing from the polling was business mogul and television personality, Donald Trump, who was recently profiled by Conservative Website Human Events, in an article entitled: “Can Donald Trump Save America?” , which includes a lengthy interview with “The Donald” and reflections on his intent to run for the office of the President. A summary paragraph in the article notes:

But Trump’s not just a businessman. He’s an American personality. He’s a man that can bring the constituencies of Rush Limbaugh and Howard Stern together, which, as he observes, is “probably tougher than [bringing] the Republicans and the Democrats” in concert.
(Source: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=42269#)

Of the potential candidates, based on governing or business experience, there are clear choices in the pack, the obvious, Huckabee, who, although still considered “liberal” by those on the right, has the ability to relate to a broad electorate, (Arkansas for example),this alone gives him far greater electability in general that most of the field. Palin, who also served as Govenor, and in other administrative capacities, has the same type of experience, and her extensive knowledge of the energy industry will be key in the next election. The missing man from the poll, Donald Trump also falls into that category, what he lacks in governmental experience he makes up for in business acumen. Although early in the crystal ball stages of picking the frontrunners where no announcement shave been made, look to those three to lead the pack, with Huckabee the strongest – what one needs to keep in mind, the rock star electability factor still plays in the nation – those aforementioned are in the public eye consistently and would easily make the transition to the political stage, with the exception of Trump, who, would stand on his merits of outspoken patriotism, take no prisoners with no excuses, persona and of course, his ability to govern business. It is my no means, a stretch.

As to those who feel the name “Huckabee” might be a bit too much - one only needs one piece of evidence to dispute that whole silly theory: Barack Obama

Huckabee Continues to Lead Narrowing GOP Pack in Polling – Focus WV and NC – Pence Out – The East Coast Factors Huckabee?

Huckabee Continues to Lead/Polls Best in Hypothetical 2012 match up

Public Policy Polling has been conducting a series of State and National Polls featuring 2012 GOP “potential” candidates versus President Obama beginning as early as April of 2009 In that survey, Obama led the four top GOP Contenders, with Mike Huckabee gaining the highest “favorability” ranking of the top four (Huckabee, Palin, Romney and Gingrich). However, polling fortunes have reversed as of late, and Huckabee is clearly leading the pack in the polling conducted since early 2009. Obama had led all “contenders” up until January 22, 2010, when Huckabee took a slim lead over the President, with Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin falling points behind the President. The survey’s released since that point have had little changes as far as the GOP “Field” used for polling purposes is concerned, with Huckabee either leading or at the top of the “pack”.

In the most recent surveys, all 2012 potential GOP candidates best Obama in West Virginia, normally a stalwart Democrat state. (See full PFD report Here ). In this survey conducted on January 27th, 2011, Huckabee leads Obama by the widest margin: 54-36, Romney garners 4 points less, Gingrich, a 10 point advantage over Obama and Palin, for the first time, a 2 point advantage.

In North Carolina, however, Obama leads all Potential (GOP) candidates, however, Huckabee continues to Best the balance of the “potential” candidates in North Carolina.

While the media is concerned with the fact that no Republican has announced so “late in the game”, so to speak, however, when one looks at the 2008 general election, candidate announcements were made in 2007: Romney declared in February of 2007,, In January of 2007, Huckabee announced an exploratory committee, and at the end of January formally announced his intent to run, Guilianni announced in February of 2007, and John McCain formally entered the race in April of that year.

Therefore, in the grand scheme of things, the old adage, “act in haste, repent in leisure”, may be in order. Of the contenders, Romney and Huckabee both came “out of the gate” somewhat early, both losing to McCain who announced later in the Spring of 2007, giving his team more time to conduct political intelligence, and decide which way the political winds might be blowing before jumping in. Most of the top field, when asked, is looking at a summer announcement of intent, in that way, as it has been noted in several articles on the subject, overexposure is used as the reason for holding any formal announcements. The wait also gives those in the “potential top condensers” field, more time to review polls as well as see who else may enter or not, as in the case of one Mike Pence who announced this week, he will not run.

One also has to take into consideration that the “front runners” have been polled by a variety of firms since 2009, giving them the opportunity to weigh their political futures by the numbers, earlier, and with less of an investment. Additionally, the four in the top field, all have PAC’s (Political Action Committees) as discussed in an earlier article on GOP Potential Candidates Media A List”.

What the continued lead by Huckabee tells us, specifically from a polling institute that “leans Democrat”, is that Huckabee has a general appeal, even among some Democrats. In the words of one “New York, East Coast Elitist, Liberal (whom this blog highly respects), the reason may be simple: We don’t really expect Obama to win in 2012, so we need to see who we can stomach, Huckabee is the only one”. Pointed out: an irrational aversion to Sarah Palin (one which has no reasoning besides “I can’t stand her voice!”), an apparent remark by Mitt Romney at an event during the 2008 campaign that alienated the entire “pack”, and Gingrich, well, Gingrich is old and boring, like McCain. As the mainstream media seriously gets involved in reporting on those who have announced, one may still find Huckabee’s write-ups with a first paragraph lead-in describing the Governor as a “Baptist Minister”, however, one might find that the tone may change, specifically during the early part of 2012, should it appear that Obama cannot be reelected, and should Huckabee announce, the lead in will likely read “2 term Governor of the State of Arkansas, and watch especially for the Hope, AR tie in to the Clintons (real or imagined). As Huckabee continues to do well with Independents, (the Beltway Conservatives will be his biggest detractors), and with Democrats (not Progressives mind you), then it would appear that, from this perspective, Huckabee is sitting in the “cat birds seat” as far as the field of 2012 “potentials” are concerned. Granted, should Huckabee decide against a run, this becomes moot. On Trump entering the fray: This will make for theater, can you imagine those debates? (Ratings, Ratings Ratings!)

Field of GOP Presidential Candidates May Include Donald Trump – Seriously Considers Run against Obama in 2012

Donald Trump 2012? Image askmen.com

Donald Trump has announced that he is ”seriously considering” a run for President in the upcoming 2012 general election. The first mention of Trump considering a run as the Nation’s top CEO, came from a CBS News article on October 5th, after a poll conducted in New Hampshire pushed Trump to the top of a field of GOP possible candidates. The poll, which as of October, news sources could not locate a source, was conducted in September. Those polled were questioned if Trump’s donations to Democrats in the past and his television appearance would help or hurt him in a run at the White House. (Granite State)

Trump, who is an American businessman and Reality Television “Star”, made the announcement national on Fox News' “On The Record” last night. Trump’s focus is creating jobs, and the trade deficit between the U.S. and primarily China. He noted in the interview on Fox that politicians are talking about creating jobs, but not offering solutions. His solution would be a 25% tax on imported goods, which would even the playing field for U.S. production of items such as Toys. Additionally, Trump stated that the international business community finds elected officials in the U.S. to be “stupid”, and that lobbyist for foreign interests in Washington may be swaying the way certain elected officials cast their votes.

Trump would certainly add more than a bit of drama and business acumen to the “hypothetical” field of GOP nominees, which includes Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, among others. Santorum was in New Hampshire yesterday, “testing the water”. Others, who have made the trip, according to WMUR, New Hampshire are: “Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.”

“The Donald” also made mention of his potential run on his Facebook page where he received some positive feedback from his fans. There are multiple “Donald Trump 2012” pages on Facebook, none, as of yet, official. His political ideology of Protectionism just may resonate with voters who are frustrated with the lack of manufacturing jobs, the return of which would certainly be a boon to those millions of unemployed, especially the 99’ers (or those who will have their unemployment checks cut as 99 weeks expire this week).

Historically, President Theodore Roosevelt led the nation with a policy of tariffs on foreign goods, which he used to push the United States to the heights of prosperity.