Obama Begins his Final Four Years - Chris Matthews overboard in Praise, Lupe Fiasco raps anti-Obama, the Great Divide of American Politics Continues – One Solution.

Countdown - Screenshot from the Drudge Report - lest we forget

Yesterday, President Barack Obama celebrated the beginning of his second term, in televised ceremonies to the nation. There was much pomp and circumstance as befits the office of the President, and yet, some forget, that the Office of the President is an individual citizen who is duly elected by a majority, to serve the interest of the nation. That would be true no matter who has led in the past, nor who will lead in the future. The Office does not make the title-holder a king, or a dictator – just a man (or someday perhaps a woman) who had the political machine behind them, and a ton of money, to put them into the nation’s driver’s seat for a period of four to eight years. Some have been stellar, some have been bumblers, and yet, that depends on the individual point of view, and individuals tend to disagree.

This morning, over at Red State, Erick Erickson, wrote an excellent piece on the day - Entitled: “The Loyal Opposition”. In short, Erickson congratulates President Obama on his second term, and then lays out the problems he had with those on the right who were over-the-by means of “tweets” and other comments about the President – noting that it served no purpose – he spoke of the anger, and the need for the Republican Party to do something constructive, rather than to focus on the criminal aspects of the Presidents’ first term – Benghazi and Fast and Furious for example. The blame, Erikson wrote, fell on the “establishment Republicans”. On several points Erickson is correct. It is correct to congratulate the President of the United States on winning a second term. Whether on agrees of disagrees with the President’s policy – the fact remains he was hired bay majority of the people to represent all the people, thereby he happens to be all of the “collective” our President. Fortunately one can still agree or disagree with the President, but one should also be outraged by the work done by leaders of the Republican Party in office. They have done nothing but act like cohorts of the President for fear of being “disliked by the public”. They refuse to take one for the team, as the saying goes, and therefore, are as complicit in the minds of those who do not care for the President’s ideology as the President himself.

There are those who view the President as some sort of “saint” or in the case of Chris Matthews, as the second coming of Abraham Lincoln. Matthews, apparently not a history major, suggested that Obama’s speech was as great or great than the Gettysburg Address by Abraham Lincoln(for those Historically Impaired). He was, of course, off the mark, the speech delivered by teleprompter spoke of a change in the way we perceive the world, in peace, and it was a typical progressive speech, one that anyone at the union hall would have delivered, but perhaps not as well. How does one compare, realistically, Barack Obama and Lincoln – in the only way possible – both men had no disregard for the Constitution, due process and acted much more as the sole arm of the government, giving short-shrift to those other branches – the Legislative and Judiciary. That is an accurate assessment. Barack Obama is fighting political opposition, so was Lincoln. Obama uses the press to his benefit; Lincoln jailed the press for disagreeing. (This makes one wonder if the press is more aware of the connection hat one might suppose).

Rest assured the administration does not care for dissent. Ask Lupe Fiasco – (who?) Lupe Fiasco is an entertainer, a rapper, one of the many that came up at the same time as Eminem, Three Six Mafia, and a few others whose names have been forgotten as the changes in what’s hot in pop culture and music move forward. Lupe was to perform at a pre-inauguration event, and while in practice, Lupe’s “rap “included more than a bit of anti-Obama messaging. He was summarily strong-armed off the stage. The video and story is available at The Daily Caller. The fact that Mr. Fiasco, decided to exercise his first amendment rights, and was prevented from doing so, may upset some, but his timing, in reality, was off a bit. It was neither the time nor the place (although granted, it would have given him a huge audience for messaging), but it was seen as disrespecting the Office. The Office is of import, not the man who holds the office. That is the difference everyone who was negative yesterday, seemed to be missing. If Lupe Fiasco wants to become part of a movement to take a slightly right turn, then he would better serve the country and his ratings among 50 percent of them, by releasing more of those tunes to the general population and like those Lady Gaga’s and Madonnas, use the stage as a “teaching” moment, to those who would be shocked by a different point of view.

The Drudge Report Reminds us of the reality of the station – the Headline reads: 1461 days – directly underneath a photo of the President. This headline links to a CNN online article on the Inauguration and the social festivities which are part and parcel of the event.

It is not that the man will be reelected, (although some insist this will take place) – but a change is definitely needed, and that is in the perception by some, both in government and in the political party that is the Republican Party, and in the Tea Party, and in those Parties that see a different agenda for America, a free society, that allows everyone to get up and out, rather than to get a handout and then vote for more. Yesterday was neither the time nor the place, as Erik Erikson pointed out, but a time to celebrate that we are a free people and agree or not, the President, again is our President. That said, there must be change with a backbone, and that will require opposition leaders (anti-progressives (socialist/communists) who will fight tooth and nail to get their message out to a hostile media, never mind FOX, which is most likely sympathetic, but the trenches. If someone disagrees with a position in the media, then it is the duty of a conservative to convert and teach, and at the very least, use composure to disagree and use a teaching moment in front of a camera, no matter how small an audience – and above all, no rhetoric. What the nation needs is a new “Newt”, not that there is much wrong with the old “Newt”, (except a few flights of fancy), but someone who, was able to get his message across, and yes, in doing do, lost his position, that requires someone who can take one for the nation, rather than for some imaginary team (speaking of the Republican Party). Leaders, who will not go to Washington, collect their salary and then vote with the Speaker of the House to raise the debt ceiling – for example. Until and unless those types of leaders emerge, this ridiculous name-calling does nothing, using the time strategically and in the right place and time, will. What the average American does not know should be hammered home, again, and again, - That the government has no money of its own. That they are thanking the wrong group of people for their good fortunes, be it free cell phones, an ebt card, or unemployment extensions or selective tax break. The taxpayer is the sole revenue of the government, and father, Government employees, producing no discernible income from a source other than the government, is also beholden to the tax payer. The true taxpayer is one who resides in the private sector. Should the private sector not produce enough taxpayers, then there will be no benefits, period.

There is the salacious argument that teachers, and any government (state or federal) employee pays taxes. This statement is true. It is the need to point out to those who should be smarter, that their paycheck comes from the government, and that the government has no money of its’ own. So, their paychecks, and the taxes they pay, are coming from the private sector, and the individual taxpayer.

Therefore, if there are fewer public sector taxpayers, then, math suggests that sooner or later, one must either raise the debt ceiling and borrow the money (which has to be paid back in the form of “revenue” – (revenue is a code word for taxes on those who have private sector jobs), or should that fail, and there is not enough private sector jobs to sustain a raise in the debt ceiling, the benefits will – stop.

Until that message delivered, and understood, there will be no “progress”. Of course there are other problems that are faced daily, but, ignorance, in this case, may not be “bliss” should the economy go into further decline. In any event, this should be hammered home, which would prevent one’s children, grandchildren, great grandchildren and so on, from having to pay exorbitant taxes in order to bail out individuals who benefited from excesses of this and previous administrations (include states).

That is the message that the Congress, the Senate and the Office of the President depend on the largess of the private sector employee, (not on billionaires and millionaires) that every dime wasted, is a dime that belongs to the people, in collective, and that should be used for the nation’s defense and roads.

Without the private sector, those we complain so vehemently about, would not be sitting so pretty in Washington, rather, they would have to resort to living as “we the people” do, on a paycheck, from a firm or business they establish. It’s a basic concept, and it needs to be taught, from the bottom to the top.

Huntsman Ends Campaign, to Endorse Romney, the Consequences - Right Media Vs.Mainstream Media Now Resembles MSNBC – Romney vs. Gingrich - Analysis

Former Utah Governor, Jon Huntsman has decided to end his campaign for the GOP nomination and will endorse Mitt Romney as of Monday the 16th. The fact that the Utah Governor failed to secure a stronger finish in the New Hampshire primary, and his extremely low poll numbers going forward, has not been lost on some media – excellent article to be found at the The Christian Science Monitor.

In reviewing the most recent poll numbers in SC at Real Clear Politics Gingrich is fast on the heels of Mitt Romney, and from the pollsters results, one can find that the race is shaping up similarly to the Iowa Caucus where one finds poll numbers erratic, and Romney, Gingrich and Ron Paul leading the pack – all within a variety of margins of error (depending upon the pollsters marginal’s. In addition polling taken in recent days finds that 8 to 20% of those polled are still uncertain as to which candidate for whom they will vote. The polls thus far, are only as good as those taken a day or two prior to the primary, as anything else that has been released is akin to reading tea leaves!

How important is South Caroline in a win, even if it is by say 7 votes? It is of supreme import as the Palmetto state has accurately “predicted” through their primary winner, the eventual winner of the GOP nominee for the past few decades. A win in South Carolina from a psychological point for a campaign, can be extremely meaningful, it is not that a photo finish will mean a hill of beans, but a wider margin of 2 to 6 points between the two front runners, will be the tell-tale sign of either rejection or acceptance going forward into Florida, Nevada and the Super Tuesday. Gingrich has a firm grasp on the south, and is polling well; he polls well across all demographics in most polls, with two other that are considered to be pulling votes from the same “well”, one Rick Santorum and one Rick Perry. Should either one of those drop out of the S.C. race (which is, at this point, unlikely), those votes are assumed to go to Newt Gingrich, however, should their leads diminish over the next few days (given two debates, one tonight the16th on Fox news and one on CNN on the 19th (best debate arena to date, hands down goes to CNN), then any points lost may be evenly split between Gingrich and Romney – those voting for Santorum most likely to go to Romney (who if he does end his campaign, would, in all likelihood, endorse Romney as the RNC choice). Should Texas Governor Rick Perry end his campaign, the split may be even, although the later two, along with Gingrich, allegedly have the same “base”. That said, with 8 to 20% undecided – and Gingrich within the margin of error in most polling with Romney (i.e. statistical tie), then should those undecided’s break for Gingrich, he would have a clear advantage, with or without Perry and Santorum in the race. Ron Paul should remain at his current level in SC which is at approx. 14 to 18 % of the vote.

The media influence.

With all the railing against the Mainstream Media choosing a candidate and stumping for one over another, namely Barack Obama, by the likes of Andrew Breitbart and Matt Drudge (and name a pundit, especially on Fox News) it appears they have taken the same low road when it comes to anyone who get’s within striking distance of Mitt Romney. Gingrich, to the Republicans, represents someone who will end the status quo, a man who has a past, a man whose past indicates he will work for against both parties, to push legislation that is Conservative in nature without abandoning his Conservative principles. Gingrich, who worked with President Reagan and then President Clinton, has angered more on the right, perhaps than the left, for getting things done. To Mitt Romney’s credit, he did work with the Massachusetts legislature, but handed them almost everything they requested – the excuse: “I was outnumbered.” So why is Mitt Romney being pushed so hard by everyone from Charles Krauthammer to Ann Coulter (who has yet to pick a nominee that would win)? How much are these pundits of the Beltway vested in Politics as Usual?

For example; a recent headline on the Drudge Report, touted, “FLASH: Newt Booed At Huckabee Forum Over Romney Attacks... *” (see Screenshot), which led to this link on http://tv.breitbart.cm/newt-booed-by-sounth-carolina-crowd-for-bain-attacks” with video.
Those watching the Huckabee Forum with each candidate answering questions from a SC audience, never saw any such booing taking place, and when one reviews the video, which is short in length, one notices perhaps a 5 second grumbling, the question was not as implied, regarding Bain, rather it was regarding Newt Gingrich’s views on Capitalism and he explained it quite well. The grumbling, which again, was minor (see video) started when he mentioned Mitt Romney’s claim of creating jobs, and ended abruptly as he was reminded of the rules by Huckabee (apparently no attacks on other candidates). This was not an attack rather a contrast, and by way of example – Gingrich quickly changed tactics, the grumbling had long stopped and went on to give an outstanding answer which applause given was cut off on this short video.


Screenshot of Drudge Headline: links to: video below




The problem with rushing a candidate though without vetting (and that is exactly what is happening here with Mitt Romney), is one is going to end up with either another McCain and or Barack Obama. It is clear that the left is in the “tank” for Mitt Romney, which should tell the right that there is something out there that may be problematic.

They should also be aware that Newt Gingrich most likely knows what that problem(s) may be – given the fact he has visited Massachusetts more than Romney and given the fact that Romney eradicated his email records, and then was angered by the Secretary of State, Galvin’s decision to release hard copy documents. If Romney is concerned about these documents, it follows that there may be something there that most likely runs contrary to his current “Conservative” message – he was most concerned that the Obama campaign have access, however, it is possible that other GOP campaigns have gained access to these records as well.

Again, although Romney had his staff dumped email records of his term in office, (called highly unusual by all GOP Gubernatorial predecessors) the hard copy remained:

An Associated Press examination of much of the available Romney archives holdings earlier this year suggested the material available then was far from comprehensive. More than 75 cartons reviewed by the AP included staff and legislative documents but no internal records written to or from Romney himself -- except for ceremonial bill-signing and official letters.
News organizations have pressed to view the archived Romney files. Also, the Democratic National Committee recently submitted three open-records requests to current Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, seeking to learn more background about the Romney administration's purge of emails and other electronic records.
Romney's campaign, meanwhile, has asked Patrick's office for any evidence of collusions between his staff and Obama re-election officials.

Boston Globe December 6th, 2011

This is a candidate of choice? He may be, but without a fair process, (i.e. slanted news stories regarding other candidates and the constant drumbeat that Romney is the only one who can win against Obama (without, by the way, any statistics that suggest he is that capable), it will be up to those voting in the Republican Primary, including independents, who will make that decision – the innuendo’s and false claims from headlines prove that the vast right wing conspiracy is nothing more than an RNC front.

Now there are 5 major candidates left to debate and follow through with the process, with the likelihood of there being 3 or 4 after the Carolina's: Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Santorum and Perry. One might look for an additional announcement prior to the S.C. primary of a suspension of a campaign. It is unlikely at this point, however, it has been rumored, not confirmed.

It remains to be seen if the right media will go to the lengths that he left media did vis a vis Romney and Obama – but it is likely: See Right Leaning Mediaite: headline: “Chris Wallace Confronts Pro-Gingrich Super PAC Spokesman About Gingriches Ties to Equity Firm” more of the same type of inflammatory headlines, and little substance in the actual article, other than additional right centered media making assertions. It is interesting to watch this play out, and to understand that there is little difference between FOX and MSNBC other than ratings. What is telling is that CNN is quickly becoming the choice of the moderate – go figure.

To answer the questions poised, Gingrich is being maligned with misleading and inaccurate head nines simply because: he’s in Romney’s way. Let the process take its course, and the last man standing will be the nominee, regardless of whether or not that nominee is approved by the RNC and its surrogates.

Lastest SC GOP Polling: Gingrich in Tie with Romney - Debate Schedule for SC

The latest Insider Advantage Poll has Newt Gingrich in a Statistical Tie with Mitt Romney. The poll, conducted on the 11th, shows Gingrich leading among Independents, and statistically tied with Romney for the Republican vote. The balance of the placements: Santorum and Paul tied, Huntsman and Perry one point apart in single digits, with 15.2% undecided. the complete marginals are available here in pdf from realclearpolitics.com.

There are three debates in SC: First Fox with Mike Hukabee's Forum tonight at 8PM, on the 16th of January 9 PM Fox News, and on January 19th, CNN at 8 PM.

Romney Wins New Hampshire, Paul Strong Second, Romney's PAC Heads South - Analysis and Commentary

Romney Takes 86,000 of 186,000 votes in New Hampshire Primary – Romney Super PAC Moves to FL – Ron Paul Strong Showing, Gingrich & Perry Move to Friendly Territory



Romney, Gingrich and Paul at a debate, the Debate will be the national Ad that makes or breaks the General Election Race - image: Huffington Post

The full New GOP Hampshire Primary Results are in at the New Hampshire Union Leader, placing first was Mitt Romney taking over one in two votes casts in the Granite State, where he has campaign since 2006. Romney was expected to win New Hampshire, along with Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman who had strong campaigns on the ground for extended periods of time. Ron Paul came in a decisive second with 48,000 plus votes, followed by Jon Huntsman at 35,000 (approximate) and Newt Gingrich 4th, besting Rick Santorum by fewer than 100 votes, Rick Perry, who had not set foot in the state, with the exception of the debates, came in 6th.

The big story was Ron Paul’s strong showing – although Paul was not physically present in the state for the same amount of time that Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney (by virtue of having one of his homes there), were, it was his massive organization that brought the strong second place finish to the Paul Campaign. CNN (who had the best comprehensive and unbiased coverage of this debate), offered several bells and whistles for political junkies, including a focus group from South Carolina that judged each candidates speech, allowing viewers to watch a “line” of approval or disapproval, separated by gender, as the candidates each gave their post primary results speech, along with demographics as to how well each candidate did among specific voter groups. Paul, who did not gender great enthusiasm, but respectable enthusiasm from the focus group, also attracts the highest percentage of independent voters, which would be a large plus in a general election. Romney’s speech was spot on, more meat than policy; however, he cannot garner the enthusiasm that projects any charisma whatsoever, coming off more as flat and more boring that Rick Santorum’s sweater vest. The Focus Groups dial moved erratically up and down as he was speaking. It was anticipated that Romney would win New Hampshire, he had placed second in 2008, against John McCain, and therefore, it was the 2nd, 3rd and 4th placements that were most interesting.

Jon Huntsman, while giving his speech, basically “flat-lined” with the focus group – garnering almost zero enthusiasm with those South Carolinians who were watching the post debate speakers, while the greatest enthusiasm came for Newt Gingrich, who spoke after Santorum (who also did not do well with the focus group) - Gingrich knows where his territory lay, and it was never in Iowa or New Hampshire.

Of note, in Romney’s speech he not only attacked the President (as he has all along) but also those rivals who he characterized as “desperate Republican’s”, specifically targeting Gingrich for running ads against Romney. To set the record straight from a Massachusetts point of view: (Read Romney’s Super PAC goes in for the Kill) Romney’s Super Pac is a large part of his campaign, and under the PAC a destroy Newt Gingrich approach was taken in Iowa and it worked. The ads were not overly factual however, very effective as Gingrich took a higher road, and responded only after the Caucus was over.

Once the group of candidates were headed to New Hampshire, the gloves came off, and Gingrich began to take a different tactic – as well as having a Super Pac of his own that began to target Romney – As Romney was the favorite in New Hampshire and with the beltway pundits, which now include, of all people, Rush Limbaugh, (A startling revelation to understand that Rush Limbaugh is not an independent right ring conservative, rather a cheerleader for the party dogma - thus giving Hilary Clinton points for being right in part- it was not a vast right wing conspiracy, it was just the GOP learning that the airwaves were very effective.) Gingrich hit a populist tone going into New Hampshire, critical of Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital, and how these types of leverage buyout groups work. This may “sound like a Democrat” to Romany fan, but it is a simple fact that in some instances, corporations raid other corporations for the money, and leave human capital in shambles. This is not an issue for Democrats alone, and one can bet the house that the Obama campaign will focus on Bain and the personal disasters the group caused – they merely need to pull out the old Ted Kennedy 1994 Senate Campaign ads, to do just that.

That is Romney’s baggage, that and his record on taxes, along with his record of no job creation in MA, and no one knows what was released when the Attorney General of Massachusetts, gave full access to Romney’s sealed gubernatorial papers. Romney tried hard to block that action but failed. One has to understand that Galvin would give that information gladly to the first Democrat operative that came calling. The problem with Romney in taking the fight to Obama is that he does have baggage, just like Gingrich, but his baggage spans from 1990 to 2008, while Gingrich’s record is up for review from the 1990’s. This battle will continue in South Carolina, where it should get interesting. The fact that some pundits are noting that Gingrich’s sole purpose in the camping is to stop Romney have been drinking the GOP Kool-Aid, Gingrich is in the campaign, like Santorum, Like Perry, like Paul and like Huntsman because it is clearly evident those candidates feel they were called to run. In the case of Romney, one wonders if he is there to serve his ego or the nation.

It is evident this blog is not a huge fan of Romney, but one must consider that this blog is generated from Massachusetts, and by a Conservative Moderate, who leans both right and left at times, depending upon the issue. As a resident under Romney, it was evident he balanced the budget on the backs of the taxpayers, instituted social programs that were anathema to anyone who has an ounce of Conservatism in them, and the only thing that one positive that one can remember is the fact that he refused to give state security to an Al Queda sympathizer who was speaking at Harvard.

Therefore, one understands, within the state, the extreme moderate that makes Romney the perfect John McCain. Does the GOP really want John McCain’s doppelganger to head the ticket? Possibly, they are more interested in taking back the senate that actually taking the White House and Romney fits that bill to a tee.

As the candidates head to South Carolina which is truly the gateway to the Presidency, on January 21st (or in 9 days from now) it will become apparent which of the candidates will remain standing through Super Tuesday. Romney, who placed 4th in the Carolina’s in 2008 with 15% of the vote, the big winners were Mike Huckabee and John McCain who placed 2nd and first respectively. The candidate the pulls out of South Carolina in the lead, has predicatively become the Party’s nominee, which is why those who finished in 2nd through 4th in the first two contests out of 50, are not overly concerned at this point. That may or may not change in 9 days, however, it is doubtful that certain candidates will be able to carry forward going into South Carolina, where they may lack organization in the Palmetto State, chief among them is Rick Santorum, who rose swiftly in Iowa, and expected a better showing in New Hampshire.

Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry will be the two to watch going into that particular state, given the fact that they have invested in the Carolinas, and have southern roots. The Paul campaign will most likely focus on more eastern/western states where they can, in all seriousness, do well enough to take this race to the Convention. It’s still anyone’s game, despite the drumbeat. With all due respect to Mitt Romney, who one can be sure is a very smart guy, and one who is patriotic, offers nothing concrete in a comparative way to the President, and, in addition, appears to take great umbrage at criticism, coupled with lackluster debates performances, he would be the weakest of the candidates, besides Jon Huntsman to put up against the President. In addition, a strong social conservative, might also be in the same boat. This leaves few valid choices, chief among them the former Speaker of the House.

It will be the individual that the voter’s trust in this election, more than any other factor, despite the polls and despite the pundits, that will win the day, as to who that individual may be – no-one knows at this point, with only two small contests, although titled as the “first”, past, it is far too early to crown a front-runner in terms of the entire election. Once the dust settles on Super Tuesday (March 6th), then the front-runner (or front-runners as the case may be) will be glaringly apparent.

Article of note from Politico: ”Newt Gingrich leaves New Hampshire on high note, despite primary loss”

Fear 2012 - 2 in 1 Choose Obama Reelection – US News and World Report – Who Can’t Best Obama – The Import of the GOP Primaries

The primary process will decide who faces President Obama in 2012 Election: pictured Newt Gingrich and the President - image form bet.com


U.S. News and World Reportsare citing multiple polls that suggest 2 in one American’s fear Obama’s reelection more than any other event in 2012. Second in events is a rise in taxes, something that seems inevitable with a second Obama term. However, the poll that they cite is internet based, and one must be extremely cautious when approaching internet polling. It is the Gallup daily tracking poll that suggests reelection is unlikely at this time – other polling institutions, such as those that are campus based, or those that are politically ideological (see Rasmussen as leaning right and Public Policy Polling as leaning left), are sometimes suspected of leaning in favor of the GOP and/or the Democrat Party. In the end, it is the reality of the economy, foreign policy decisions and extremely unpopular legislation that is the crux of the matter - and those factors, regardless of the political party, will signal a change in administrations.

Therefore, the voting public has a decision to make, if not Obama - then which of the Republican field is best suited to lead the nation forward? The pollsters, pundits and Washington Establishment (which includes members of Congress, and the aforementioned) appear to be pushing Mitt Romney as the inevitable nominee, however, the truth of the matter is, at this point in time, any one of those candidates, from the lowest polling to Romney, are capable of winning the White House – it comes down to the voters choice, and the order of states in which voting takes place. Today there will be a vote in New Hampshire, and although Romney is the favorite there, and has been touted in the media as going into New Hampshire with a “win” in Iowa (it was a small amount of votes, but a win non-the-less, not a mandate), the main problem with Mitt Romney, or perhaps Mitt Romney’s main problem is that he does not resonate with the primary voters. The reasons vary, from the very superficial to those who feel his tenure as Governor of Massachusetts left a record behind of increased taxes and a loss of small business, and many broken promises to those who aided him in his campaign for Governor and then President in 2008. He also has a history of extreme changes in policy regarding not only social issues, which drive a percentage of the GOP, but in all policy – he is a moderate to the core – a point that one must carefully examine and challenge prior to casting a vote.

The moderates of the GOP are not unlike the DNC candidates, in both temperament and ideology – some may feel that is necessary for compromise, others find this to be untenable and most believe that the moderate wing of the GOP (the Snows, the McCain’s, the Romney’s) cannot differentiate themselves enough from the status quo and will therefore be ineffective in governing – it is that moderation that crosses the line between being principled and voting against one’s own political party at times in order to work for the American people, rather than doing what one feels will win an election or popularity with the media and or their peers. There are others who will stand steadfast in their beliefs regardless of their party affiliation, and will act independently – a good example is one Senator Scott Brown, who, prior to the election, and although a Republican, noted that he would not always vote with his party, but for what he felt was best for his constituents. He has done just that in his tenure in the Senate, and although facing reelection is favored to win – he is extremely popular in Massachusetts, even though he angers those on the left and the right for voting in the Commonwealth’s interest. That is the type of candidate that the nation is most likely to elect – and that mold does not fit either the President or Mitt Romney – those who will do or say anything to get elected, and then, when in office, to serve the public, appear to serve themselves, and their party.

Understandably, the choice is not always clear, and the notion that an extended and nasty primary with multiple candidates is not in the nation’s best interest, is hogwash. The primary seasons ends in June with the nominating Convention held in August, therefore to push a particular candidate as the eventual nominee, before the first vote was cast, is an insult to the public. This will be true regardless of which political party and philosophy one subscribes – the primary process, in its entirety, gives more time for the public to decide which candidate, from both sides will better serve the nation. It is a job that not many would want to take, and the motivation could not be financial reward , nor the fact that the President is viewed as the most powerful figure in the nation (or should be), a leader that is shapes Foreign policy and the economy, someone with the backbone and the knowledge going into the job, that they are most likely to be challenged and berated at every step – turned on by members of their own party, and the public – it accounts for the overnight aging one sees in each President, as they either enjoy peace time or war, a good economy or bad, it is an inevitable part of the “job” for which the American public hires a President. That is what is lacking – it is the humility, regardless of primary primping and hubris that some candidates may display, that the candidates shows when speaking of the office as one in which they are working for the American people, hired on a temporary basis in order to steer the ship.

As a nation, it is doubtful that choice has been made, and it becomes more evident that many candidates on the GOP side are doing their best to ensure that the most powerful (media, pundits and those in the Washington Establishment) allow a person to make up their own minds – which is most important in this election year. Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman, are all, to a man, pointing out Mitt Romney’s “faults” as a candidate – and that is not always seen as a positive – but it should be. The two or three or four candidates that go forward, beyond South Carolina and Florida, and stay in the race on Super Tuesday, will do a larger service than the American Public may know, and one of those will be the nominee. It may be Mitt Romney, or Newt Gingrich, or Jon Huntsman, or Ron Paul or Rick Perry, it will be their showing in this (to borrow a thought from Speaker Gingrich) tortoise race to the finish, that will produce the nominee, and that nominee will be battle hardened and tested, not only by the negatives coming from their own peers, but by the race itself and the peoples in those primary and caucus states that will be voting for one over another.

The focus on money and the billions here and millions there that are necessary to run ads, and keep a campaign in the black to continue, is appropriate to an extent, and one should know that a individual may be polling last, and yet, when one wins or places in this large a field, money does come in from all sources, and that includes the PACS.

Therefore, one must choose their vote based not on the media, nor the polling, but on what that particular candidate offers in the way of similar beliefs, and how well that candidate is prepared to take on the roll of the President. There will be a healthy back and forth, and in the end, there will be those that drop out of the race, perhaps after today’s New Hampshire decision (which is unlikely), perhaps after the South Carolina primary (which is more likely), and those three or four that are still standing on Super Tuesday, will ensure that the public has a fair advantage in choosing the nominee. The notion that one candidate alone can win the White House is a fallacy, especially in this election cycle – it is the one that will be vetted after a protracted primary process that will be the best choice. Again, it may be Mitt Romney, it may not, it may be the Speaker Gingrich, and it may be Ron Paul (regardless of the fact that many pundits and the media as well as well as rank and file Republicans may naysay his chances due to his Libertarian leanings). It may be any one of those that are in New Hampshire today or heading this morning to South Carolina, or already there, campaigning.

It is the candidate that the people choose, not the media, nor the Beltway that will win the day – regardless of the polls, and regardless of the constant rush to nominate – the last candidate in the position of Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul, at this stage in 1979 was one Ronald Reagan – and he led the nation to years of prosperity and peace – therefore it behooves every one that is casting a vote – to choose with both head and heart. There will never be another Regan, but there may be a Gingrich or Santorum or Perry or Paul, or yes, Romney that will shape the course of history and drive the nation back to prosperity and peace, and in our lifetime. The choice is the public’s to make.

One last note on endorsements: Although the endorsements from the media, movies stars, peers and pundits appear to play a factor in the race, they most often boost a candidate’s moral, and on the flip side, loose votes, depending on how the public views the endorser, as well as the endorsee. It is the endorsement of the voter that counts – and that is best to be kept in mind.

2012 GOP Update – Herman Cain – Guilty Until Proven Innocent? Chicago CBS 2 Anchor, Bill Kurtis, Debunks Cain Accuser Bialek – Audio from WLS-AM

From the windy city: a local anchor, who has more credentials than most of today’s journalist, one Bill Kurtis (biography here at Chicago.cbslocal.com/personality/bill-kurtis), was a recent guest on Chicago’s WLS-AM’s “The Roe Conn Show”, and has plenty to say about Bialek (who worked for a short time at CBS), along with Cain’s ability to ride out what he appears to note as a manufactured scandal, apparently more to the story on several levels. There is a brief note below from Media Bistro:

Citing what he heard “in the elevator at work,” legendary WBBM anchor Bill Kurtis discredited Herman Cain accuser Sharon Bialek in a conversation last week on WLS-AM.
Speaking as a guest on WLS’s “The Roe Conn Show,” Kurtis said that Bialek, who worked for CBS in Chicago from 2006-2007, “has a history.”
“There’s a lot more to this story,” Kurtis said of Bialek’s account of sexual harrassment. “I ride in the elevator at work and I hear very quickly a different kind of story.”
“Let’s put Herman and Sharon in the car at the same time,” Kurtis said, “and the roles may even have been reversed, given [her] track record here.” Here’s the audio…

Video appears below (audio)



What is most interesting is the amount of conjecture on the subject, given the fact that guilty until proven innocent has been tossed out the window – however, here’s several scenario’s in which this blog has been given over the past few days, most of which, although “hearsay”, may make more sense in the long-run given the team of Bialek and Allred’s lack of credibility.

In an attempt to push Cain out of the way, as his climb to the top was gaining momentum and he represented a threat to other candidates in the GOP (some of whom have been known to play a dirty trick or two in Presidential Primary politics), but more so to the Obama campaign, given the fact that Cain’s message might resound with both Democrats as well as Independents – the best way to get rid of a Republican is to throw a scandal against the wall and hope it sticks (similar to cooking pasta), and, logic follows, that candidate would immediately withdraw from the race, or resign from Congress, or the Senate, or the local post as dog-catcher. Apparently, what they did not count on, should this be the case, is the fact that Cain is not a politician, as and such, when accused did not act like a politician, rather like a novice, which, instead of being the kiss of death, lent more credence to Cain’s innocence.

With fewer Conservatives and moderates for that matter, not trusting news sources to be as “truthful “as say a blog, or alternative source of news, Cain’s poll numbers, although in a slight decline (due more to one debate performance than any scandal), the majority of Republican Voters in (pick any poll) would prefer that Cain stay in the race (a little poll fact that is often left out of those news stories, noting the has dropped in the polls (by a few points mind you ), because of the allegations of sexual harassment (based on conjecture not fact). Those in the media, and the Obama campaign, appear to have run up against a dead horse.

Should Cain survive (and this appears to be the case at the moment) and go on to win the nomination (or be on the ticket at all), the fact that he has had allegations against him, has been made moot by the same party who has, for decades, lived by scandal and the fact that a sexual scandal is no reason for a candidate or sitting Congressman or sitting President, to leave office (See: Barney Frank and Bill Clinton, and an entire cast of characters). Therefore, they have created a scenario by which, in protecting their own (the DNC and Democrat Political Operatives); they have made it the “norm” for their constituents to look upon this type of scandal as “no big deal”. Fast forward to March (after super Tuesday), and should Cain be in the lead, or say Gingrich, and one or the other look to be heading hand in hand towards a solidified ticket, then Cain would appeal to Democrats across the board who may have had trouble voting for a “typical white man” (sorry Newt), but not for the affable, African-American, Cain.

This particular ticket, (which could, again, go either way), would solidify the
Conservatives, and surprising Democrats desperately seeking an alternative to Obama.
Also of note, the Republican Establishment and their pundits, continue to push Mitt Romney as the front runner, and, with no offense meant to the former Govenor of Massachustts, nothing short of a miracle will get that man past Super Tuesday with enough primary points to seriously continue the campaign.

This means that the Republican Party has more than one front runner, who is totally unacceptable to the Beltway, and totally acceptable to those Conservatives in the party, as well as those outside the Party.

This is not to say it would be a landslide, and that the fight would not get even dirtier (surely David Axelrod’s building must be full of Sharon Bielaks’ or someone else just as horrifying to voters that could be attached to either Newt or Cain.), but most likely to win this general, there will have to be a third party candidate, one that can peal enough votes away from the Republican, and allow the current occupant to win by even 1 point (See Massachusetts, David Axelrod’s testing grounds and the last Governors race). Therefore, a 5 point lead over an incumbent with a third party candidate in play will hardly be enough – that said, a healthy 10 point lead in polls like, for example a Gallup, would indicate that, although a tight race, more than winnable for team GOP. Of course, that all depends on how the candidate’s fortunes turn out – at the moment, in Iowa, the latest poll shows: Cain, Paul, Romney and Gingrich in a virtual tie for 1st.
The interview is worth a listen in its entirety.

2012 GOP Debate: CBS News National Journal: Perry, Cain, Gingrich – Dominate Foreign Policy Debate Analysis

GOP 2012 CBS Debate Team - image CBSnews.com


The CBS/National Journal debate held last night at Wolford College, in Spartanburg, SC, was a showcase of the eight GOP Presidential Contenders knowledge of foreign policy. CBS News ran the first hour of the debate live on broadcast television, opting for reruns of a popular series rather than run the last thirty minutes on air – instead they moved to an online streaming format, which was choppy, at best. Apparently, they (CBS) did not anticipate the numbers of interested parties trying to watch the last half hour – National Journal’s website temporarily crashed, and it was, to be blunt, torture to watch. The compete video, via Ron Paul's You Tube channel, is shown below.

Newt Gingrich dominated the foreign policy aspect of the debate, he came across as steady and commanding – and, as usual, let the moderator have it when asked about a statement he had made about Romney the day before on a talk show – which had nothing to do with the debate. This “natural Newt Gingrich” is gaining ground, knowledgeable, forthright and taking no prisoners when it comes to the media. This was as expected.
Romney also did well, specifically when it came to speaking about American Exceptionalism and the economy as it relates to national defense.

Herman Cain, was perhaps one of the biggest surprises, he not only held his own, but gave reasonable answers to each question, previewing the quest in with an overview of the topic at hand, then outlining steps he would take. Although the media is calling this weak, the fact that Cain would assemble a top notch team, then look at all the options for a specific issue, makes one comfortable with the fact that he would not go “rogue” and blindly make a decision that would affect the nation. Cain also would “hire” the best and the brightest, those who have actual experience on the job. He more than mastered this portion of the debate and one can bet the house, will be studying foreign policy and those who are experts in the field prior to the next debate.

Rick Perry gave an amazing performance – so much so one had to at first wonder if he sent in a “stunt” double – not one gaffe, strong and commanding, with perhaps the best option regarding foreign aid – proposing that nations all start at zero, and then the U.S. would decide how much to give, depending upon the benefit to the U.S. He apparently has more than recovered from the gaffe made and discussed in the video below from CBS – where he showed an outstanding sense of humor and the ability to switch from jokester to serious politic in a matter of seconds. It remains to be seen if Perry will benefit from the performance in the polls, but one would hazard to guess, the field will now contain 4 top contenders: Cain, Gingrich, Perry and Romney.

The balance of the candidates, Bachmann, Santorum, Paul and Huntsman were also on their game, and at one point, one of the candidates noted that any one of the individuals on the state would make a better president vis a vis foreign policy that the current occupant of the white house (seriously paraphrased). The winners of the debate noted above were based on technical aspects as well as the ability to hold their own in this arena, and keep to the format.

The next two debates will be held as follows:

November 19th (online only) – from Des Moine Iowa, Thanksgiving Family Forum - the family leader.com Moderator is pollster, Frank Luntz. The only candidate not confirmed for this debate is Mitt Romney; John Huntsman is also not listed. The time 5 pm Eastern.

November 22 – CNN with The Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute. The Debate, on National Security will be broadcast on CNN, CNN en Español, and worldwide on CNN International, CNN Radio and CNN.com and begin at 8 PM EST.

One can bet the house that CNN will not cut the debate short, and go to a rerun.



Best line of the night: Rick Perry to CBS News Anchor Scott Pelley (Truncated by CBS News):




Entire Video

Herman Cain Wins Nevada’s WRLC Straw Poll – The Significance with Analysis on the 2012 Nomination.

Cain and Gingrich, Big Benefits from Latest Straw Poll


From the Washington Times: Herman Cain has won the Western Republican Leadership Conference Straw Poll, leading the field of GOP contenders for the 2012 nomination. The second place went to Mitt Romney (29%) 2 points behind Cain, followed by New Gingrich at a healthy 20% of the vote. As far as straw polls go, in general, they have little impact outside of the particular political party; however, this poll was conducted after the CNN debate in Las Vegas, sponsored by and packed with members of the Western Republican Leadership Conference. Those are the GOP activist, the activist that will work to secure a nominee’s position in the race. Cain, who is neck and neck or leading Romney is traditional polls, is on track, with Romney and Gingrich, at this point, to become the nominee. With the promise of an earlier than usual primary season, the fact that Cain remains at the top of the GOP pack, despite the general knowledge that Romney is the preferred candidate by the so called Republican Establishment, is, it and of itself, a victory for those who would prefer to see a non-politician take the lead.

With Fox News analysts now changing their tune to “maybe money does not matter” – are now proposing a Cain/Romney or Romney Cain Ticket. That scenario may satisfy the establishment GOP; however, it may be more likely a Cain-Gingrich ticket - solidifying the more traditional Republican base with the less traditional grassroots Tea Party and Independent voters who are taking an anti-political class stance. Additionally, as the nominating process is to begin early, one must look at the critical states that will impact the entire race, and have traditionally pushed the eventual nominee on to victory. Those states are all, for the most part, located below the Mason/Dixon line and in the Heartland. The key is South Carolina – one might take New Hampshire, and one might take Iowa, but without South Carolina, and its sister states, the candidate might as well pack it up and go on home..

Although a lot can and will happen to change the fortunes of the current “front-runners” between now and either December 2011 or January 2012 (depending upon New Hampshire’s “final answer”, it is appearing more likely that the top three Candidates are solidifying their positions in the race.

2012 GOP 10-18 CNN Debate - Battle of the All-Stars – Cain Stands Ground, Romney-Perry Chew Up Time, Bachmann, Gingrich Benefit – Opinion

The CNN-Western Republican Leadership Conference GOP Debate held last evening in Las Vegas was a debate worthy of two bags of popcorn and a front row seat – Anderson Cooper’s CNN appeared to have lost control of the candidates at several points – and Cain and Romney were targeted, with Cain coming out no worse for the wear, and Romney with some explaining to do as Rick Perry consistently hammered home barbs on both immigrations issues and the Massachusetts Mandated Health Care Plan.

The entire video is below via www.rightscoop.com worth watching as it beats the “sound bite” videos that don’t always tell the full story (and leave off an important point or two being made by one candidate or another).

In brief, and from this perspective, the biggest winners of last night’s debate were the so-called lower tier candidates, Bachmann, Santorum, Cain and yes, Ron Paul, while Herman Cain held ground, and Mitt Romney and Rick Perry dominated the debate time and appeared to be having their own debate within a debate – Rick Perry shot back at Anderson Cooper at one point: (paraphrased): “You asked the question, I get to answer it any way I want” – then hammered away at Mitt Romney.

What this debate, from a Massachusetts Perspective tell us, is that Mitt Romney is still in denial over the mess that is the Massachusetts Health Care Program, or otherwise known as “Romney’s Albatross”. There were several discrepancies between reality and Romney’s version of how this plan works, and how it has evolved. The fact that the original concept may have been somewhat innovated, is not the end result. Firstly, Romney noted that the his plan allowed only private carriers, not the Commonwealth of Massachusetts to get involved in the insurance game – he must have forgotten Commonwealth Care – which is state run, and which tells individuals that they either buy the right dollar amount of insurance coverage and/or face penalties (the program is tied to the Department of Revenue). If one cannot afford insurance (and that’s a growing percentage of Bay Staters, one is made to pay a fee, to the Commonwealth’s IRS equivalent.) The only way out is if one’s employer does not offer insurance, and if one is an employer, one faces fines if one does not carry enough insurance (standards set by the Commonwealth) for each employee. It is a socialist nightmare, one which has prompted a call to action to remove the program that is the largest line item expense on the State Budget, with additional funds from the Federal Government, all the while unable to cover all uninsured, (those who are assessed fees), and those that are insured through private carriers, realized a minimum of a 30% increase in premiums over the past three years (source: this bloggers health insurance premiums). The move to http://repeal-romneycare.com is building steam across the state.” Romney is, of course, not responsible for all of the problems faced by those left behind in Massachusetts, but he needs to own up to the fact that is it a program that is far from perfect, and should be replaced. (There are options, such as the opening the state up to more than three carriers for instance – thereby dropping premiums and making health insurance more affordable. Tort reform at the state level might not be a bad idea either.

Rick Perry cannot hold his own in a debate – he loses his train of thought, and until and unless he can get enough sleep or get off the one issue answer, he is going to see his poll numbers continue to drop.

Which leads us to the fact that money and politics is, unlike the constant drumbeat of the press, the end all.

Herman Cain came out, although purloined for his 9 9 9 Plan, (which granted may raise a few questions, but it is a plan, one that has extremely good points, and should be read by everyone) unscathed – As a tax conscious blogger, the Cain Plan makes sense, it is not a simple as Cain suggests, however, some of the accusations leveled at Cain over the plan were not correct (Read plan here: at www.hermancain.com/999plan for perspective and questions.) but is any plan perfect? Ask Mitt Romney.

Michelle Bachmann came out confident and also had the most level answers of the evening, and one would have liked to see more of Bachmann’s common sense answers, if, and only if, the two schoolboy could have been controlled by Anderson Cooper long enough to hear responses and give time to both Bachmann and Gingrich – to this mind two underrated candidates that have the potential to rise above the fray. The most insulting part of this debate, the obvious ending where Bachmann, and Gingrich had to fight to give a closing statement – time was up, granted, but the time management of the debate, (with a heavy focus on beating up Cain, and then the Romney – Perry ad nauseum mini-debate,) left the American Public short.

Therefore, from this perspective, one is encouraged to give to the campaigns of the following candidates in order to ensure that their voices are continued to be heard, as they all offer the American public solutions and options that are not currently forthcoming from the White House.

To Anderson Coopers’ questions as to which one felt they could best President Obama in 2012, the answer is obvious: any one of those standing on that stage (ok, maybe not Rick Perry – unless he goes to teleprompter school with the President). The fact of the matter is, as Mike Huckabee proved in 2008, money isn’t everything – with Huckabee’s campaign in single digits, he blocked Romney and his millions from moving beyond Super Tuesday. The difference between these “lower tier” candidates of 2012, and Mike Huckabee, is that they all have a willingness to raise funds – whereas, Mike Huckabee, who would have, in this opinion made the best option for 2008, (once they removed Hillary Clinton – who was strongest on defense of all candidates running), is known for his lack of fundraising ability. It is not the millions, but it is the ability to go to donors and ask – not just the grass roots but the bigger donors, many of whom are still not committed. Therefore, in theory the field is complete, but as to calling out one right now who would best the balance of the eight – hard to tell.

Technical winner: Tie: Bachmann, Gingrich, for substantive answers. Losers: Romney and Perry. The one man who will benefit in the national polls: The ever likable Herman Cain. (Despite the fact that Romney will be immediately called the winner, as he is best loved by the Republican Establishment – something this blogger feels is a negative at times.

Best line of the night goes to: Newt Gingrich: (on the budget negotiations currently underway: via NYTimes “Now the idea that you’ll — the idea that you’ll have a bunch historically illiterate politicians who have no sophistication about national security trying to make a numerical decision about the size of the defense budget tells you everything you need to know about the bankruptcy of the current elite in this country — in both parties. (Followed by)… I’m a hawk, but I’m a cheap hawk. But the fact is — (laughter) — the fact is, to say I’m going to put the security of the United States up against some arbitrary budget number is suicidally stupid.”

Therefore, keep the voices of reason and those that hold the entire field accountable and intimately still stand to rise above the fray in business:

Donate:

hermancain.com/donate
michelebachmann.com
http://www.newt.org



Full GOP Debate from www.tehrightscoop.com

2012 GOP Poll Watch – WSJ - By The Numbers, Cain Leads, 68% Satisfied with Current GOP Eight: Poll Demo’s: 40% Dem 19% Ind., 36% Rep., 5% Other

The GOP Field - Majority - Satisfied

A Wall Street Journal Poll conducted October 6-10 has headlined as Herman Cain Leads “Republican” Field “on various websites linking to the poll data. However, when one takes a closer look at that data one finds that Cain and, in fact, the “Field of Eight” do quite well even crossing party lines – For example: 63% of those polls are satisfied and aware of the GOP field, and 40% of those polled are Democrats, the proof as they say is in the math.

Other “gems “found in this poll, but not getting much notice: 74% of those polled feel the nation is headed down the wrong road – 57% Feel the President is not doing a great job handling the economy, the Democrat and Republican Parties are equally loathed by (42% (Dem), 44% (Rep.) – and Job Creation is the number one issue topping at 70%, when GOP Voters are identified the figure remains high at 60%, second most important issue (both political affiliation): the deficit and federal spending.


click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc

Those who are anticipating voting and are more enthusiastic for the 2012 election than other years, and the total is high - 50% are more enthusiastic, 11% are the Same, and 38% are less enthusiastic (See Demographics while sitting down).


click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc

On voting in the primary: 30% intend to vote in the Republican Party, while 26% intend to vote in the Democrat Party with 39% holding until the General Election – and 5% either other or not sure.


click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc

Finally, among voters who indicated they would be voting in the Republican Primary: the candidates in order of “Positivity” or how much they are known/liked:
Herman Cain: 46%, Romney: 35%, Gingrich: 26%, Perry: 20% and Rick Santorum: 15% - the balance of the candidates has a single digit “positivity score”.

However if the election were held today, those intending to vote would choose Herman Cain, (by 5 points), Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Ron Paul (The balance in single digits)

Therefore, what we find, as of this particular poll (and other polls where Cain is either leading and/or points from Mitt Romney): Cain, a non-Washington Candidate is leading, Democrats are jumping ship, those in either party do not approve of their party, and going into the general enthusiasm is fairly high among what one can assume by the numbers: Republicans and Republican leaners.

Finally and of most import - overall President Obama still is personally perceived well: in positivity – tying with Herman Cain with all voters at a score of 6, Romney is next In line at a -2 on the net Positive/Negative test.

This is how the Field stands going into Tuesday nights’ debate, which will be broadcast on CNN at 8 pm EST. Cain and Romney are the two most under scrutiny at this point, should Perry or Newt Gingrich or Paul rise to the top in the ensuing weeks, it would be the same. However, this debate bears watching, as do each performance of these eight candidates; this constant debate cycle shows several things to the primary voter: how well the candidate takes criticism (especially the current front-runner, who will be basically put under the negative spotlight consistently by both the moderator and if allowed, the other candidates), How well prepared the candidate is, and if not prepared, comes back with an honest, no, finally, to all those Democrats watching and showing an interest in the GOP candidates – the individuals sense of humor and ability to speak to the issues. (Most often said by left of center associates: a) who knew Republicans had a sense of humor, and b) who knew Republican’s have actual plans.)

One important factor to the media and beltway pundits is: the Cash! – Right at the moment, the leaders in the Cash Field are Romney, Perry, Paul, Bachmann and Cain – (in Order), however, as one can recall from 2008 and before, the Candidate with the Most Cash going in, does not always end up being the nominee – therefore, this year should promise to be any different.

What to watch for in the coming weeks: The President will most likely continue to campaign with the Occupy theme, Herman Cain plans to establish a presence in key primary states: New Hampshire and Iowa specifically – of course, these are important “early states” however, the southern state schedule, which has also moved up will play the most important roll given what took place in the 2008 primary. (Romney took NH, Huckabee IA, and McCain (with a little help from Fred Thompson who knocked out Huckabee) took South Carolina - at which point the die was cast, and contenders began to pull back, with Romney the first to call it quits and incidentally the candidate with the biggest “war chest”.

Overall Democrats appear to be willing to vote (today) along party lines, with a close race called for Obama as incumbent and any Republican – 44/42% (Obama 44%) – Note: This is the only pollster showing that Obama is in positive territory when it comes to reelection.

Therefore, although Cain leads the field, and the field is perceived as satisfactory by a majority of voters (all parties), the logic follows that he is, at the present time, the best choice to achieve the goal of taking the White House. Should Herman Cain's name recognition among likely voters rise, and his positives rise with that recognition, then he would be the definitive candidate to beat the Incumbent.

GOP Debate Reminder: Tuesday, October 11th, at Dartmouth - Bloomberg TV, Washington Post

The next GOP debate will take place this coming Tuesday, October 11th, with a pre-debate analysis beginning at 7pm est, followed by the debate at 8pm on Bloomberg TV, or streaming live on the Washington Post website.

Those who live in the Western Massachusetts area and have Charter Digital services can find the Bloomberg on Channel 299, those without Charter; check your local cable provider listing for Channel number (Comcast does carry the channel in Western MA).

This debate will focus solely on the Economy. There are nine candidates, currently, who have participated in past GOP debates, and have declared themselves for the GOP 2012 Presidential Nomination: (In no particular order)

Herman Cain: www.hermancain.com
Mitt Romney: www.mittromney.com
Rick Perry: www.rickperry.org
Ron Paul: www.ronpaul2012.com
Newt Gingrich: www.newt.org
Michele Bachmann: www.michelebachmann.com
Rick Santorum: www.ricksantorum.com
Jon Huntsman: www.jon2012.com
Gary Johnson: www.garyjohnson2012.com

For a full list of candidates: visit: http://2012.presidential-candidates.org

2012 GOP Update: Herman Cain Wins Florida Straw Poll, SNL Spoofs Fox (and All Media) Debates, Chris Christie Ponders Run - Palin Silent

Cain and Gingrich - Take them Seriously - image aaiusa.org


2012 GOP Presidential Candidate, Herman Cain, trounced the field of candidates, including Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, in what is being classified as a “surprise” win. One should understand that just perhaps, this early in the game (although by media standards it is “late” in the game” therefore, frontrunners must be chosen, except front runners, generally end up forgotten at this same period of time from an historical perspective), Cain’s future in the nominating process, along with Newt Gingrich, and, perhaps, just perhaps, other candidates who may yet enter, is not surprising, rather expected.

After the poor performance (from this perspective) of both “front runners”, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, in the last Fox debate, the balance of the field began to take on a whole new meaning to Conservatives, Republicans, Republican Leaning Independents, and yes, Republican leaning Democrats, who are now searching for who makes the most sense to lead this country forward – They understand there is no rush to jump on board with one candidate. Michelle Bachmann put it best at the Fox debate, when she noted that “Conservatives don’t have to settle” and “Obama’s poll numbers haven’t even reached bottom yet” (paraphrased from FOX news debate), as it very true this time. Perhaps that is why, from those who this blog snap polled immediately following the debate (and who make up a cross section of the aforementioned demographics, the big winners were Cain and Gingrich.

It is about choices: making the best choice to move the nation forward, and yes, there is still time for others to enter the debate arena, up until November of this year (filing deadlines).

Although one might want to look at straw polls in general as “paid polls for contestants, and fundraisers for local or state political parties”, there is some meaning to be derived from winning such a poll, those paying to be invested in the poll, as surrounded by the base of that party – in this case, the base in Florida was quite clear – Herman Cain was their choice.

An interesting aside: the debut of Saturday Night Live, featured a segment on “the 8th or 9th GOP Debate, using the usual comedic DNC talking points, in the intro, but the point was well taken: when watching the Fox Debate, it was evident that other than Perry and Romney, the other candidates were largely sidelined or ignored (giving CNN the win so far on debate management and production). Best lines awarded to Florida Straw Poll winner, Herman Cain, with a routine on Pizza delivery. One thing is evident, SNL needs to find less “tired” lead in jokes, and come up with something new – surely there are more than a few jabs of a comedic nature that, not unlike the pizza stunt, would have made this clip more entertaining.



Perhaps that will take place once New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie, decides whether or not to run for the GOP brass ring, in a “few days”, unless of course, those anonymous tips that were used by Politico to push the “story” were pulling a leg somewhere. Christie, who won the seat as Governor in a special election in 2009, had already stated on several occasions that he was not interested, however, given the current field (Cain, Gingrich excepted – so far), then he may feel obligated to jump into the fray.


Silence from the Palin camp(aign)- So Far - image mediaite.com

Additionally, there has been virtual silence from Palin, who, of all candidates (or potential candidates), would be the only one with a clear record on taxes, governing, and yes, bonus, she can debate. Regardless of naysayers in the Republican establishment and skewed polls indicated she would lack Republican support (easily done if one uses a majority of Democrats for a sample – see Fox and McClatchy), the general fascination generated and evident in the MSN, what one does not see, more importantly - the grass roots in place for Palin which is – in two words: astonishing and intimidating. One has to ponder, when Palin is silent for an extended period of time, expect an announcement of some nature. She too has until November, and a smart strategy is to let the early front runners implode, especially when one has had time to organize.

CNN Tea Party Debate Review: Overall Winner – The Tea Party – All Candidates Rumble Showcase Ideas and Mettle – Palin If In - Strategy Brilliant

CNN-Tea Party Express Buses - Normalizing the Norm for America - image: humble libertarian.com


In what had begun as a grass roots revolt against higher taxes, the size and scope of the U.S. Government, government regulations run amok and a return to the U.S. Constitution, the Tea Party Movement (Taxed Enough Already), has been characterized as a right-wing, terrorist, crazy group of individuals, who’s raising political voice, terrorized the media and certain members of Congress and the Obama administration. The transition from fringe to mainstream was completed last evening by CNN News who co-hosted with the Tea Party, what has been to date, the best debate forum by any network, at the Tampa Fair Grounds. Wolf Blitzer took questions from both the audience in Tampa and remote location “watch parties” in three states. The size and scope of the Tea Party was made evident, and the questions posed to the GOP candidates were sound, having more to do with policy than frivolous “What would Jesus do?” questions heard in previous years debates. The pace was fast, yet, Blitzer gave time to all candidates insuring that although the alleged “front-runners” rumbled back and forth (Perry and Romney), each candidate was asked to weigh in – repeatedly. One might have expected such a move from FOX News and/or the ratings hungry MSNBC, in order to boost ratings, rather, CNN, has now become the voice of moderation – we have entered the political twilight zone.

As to winners and losers on technical points, Rick Perry held his own, yet appeared to be somewhat shaken by the repeated questions by his peers of his Executive Order mandating vaccination of pre-pubescent girls against the HPV virus, with an opt out, rather than an opt-in for parents. In addition, Perry’s in-state tuition for those on a pathway to citizenship was met with criticism. During both of these incidents, Romney remained silent, coming at Perry over the issue of Social Security. Romney, who became more apparently ruffled, looked on the verge of losing his temper on several occasions during the discourse. Bachmann appears to be still in the game and then some, appearing confident and much stronger than in the previous debate held on MSNBC, and Santorum, Gingrich and Cain offered reasonable options, along with the most moderate of the bunch, Huntsman. The perennial candidate, Congressman Ron Paul, went off the proverbial rails when he began to cite The U.S. as the cause of the attacks on September 11th, citing Osama Bin Laden – he was consequently, booed by those in attendance, and came off sounding less Libertarian than Progressive. Overall best line of the night went to Newt Gingrich: In an exchange between Romney and Perry regarding the disaster of Social Security and Romney assertion that Perry is “scaring the elderly”, Gingrich shot back: (paraphrased) "Obama is scaring everyone."

In watching the debate one began to have a sense that almost everyone of those individuals on the stage would bring ideas and leadership skills to the table, regardless of where the current standing is in the polls – the exception being, in this opinion, Ron Paul, who although brilliant, does differ from most Conservatives in regards to the root causes of September 11th, foreign policy overall, and the question of open borders. Moreover, it is clearly too early to call a permanent front-runner, as fortunes in the polls, come and go between September and the Debates of November and December, mere months before the first primary and caucuses in 2012.

This leaves room for additional candidates, a la Ronald Reagan, to enter the fray. Immediately following the debate, Sarah Palin weighed in on the debate and the performance of the current candidates, on Fox New with Greta Van Susteren, (video below). Asked and answered at least a thousand times, Palin continues to hold that her entry (or non-entry) into the 2012 field will be a time of her own choosing, not dictated by the media. However, the run-down on all candidates and the overall impression during her analysis was that she was readying to take to the field, as to timing of an announcement that is for Palin to decide. As a strategy, it may prove to be brilliant: first Mitt Romney lead the field, with his background in economics, and a short stint as Governor of Massachusetts, he was closely followed in the polls by Michelle Bachmann, who won the Iowa Straw Poll, and was within points of Romney. Perry entered the race to much anticipation, and shot past Romney, effectively pointing out to anyone with a grasp on reality that Romney has trouble holding his own in this field, and polls gave the favor to Perry, by double digits over the former Bay State Governor.

However, after last evenings debate, questions are clear as to Rick Perry’s management of the Executive order (and a possible tie to cronyism, which, although down home in style, Perry has been in a political office for the majority of his career – double points), and his immigration stance. This took a bit of shine off the Texas Governor. The points scored against Perry, as noted by the Austin Statesman came from “Second Tier Candidates” not his “chief rival”. One can view this as either Romney taking a break and letting the rest of the “pack” beat up Perry, or Romney preferred not to go where the tables could be turned on Romney.

Therefore, as the front runners so often take so many hits, and then begin to slide in the polls, a late entry not only picks up support from those candidates who no longer can sustain a campaign (too early), and /or those top tier candidates who are less appealing than at first glance. This is especially true, if one is in third place in polls, after several debates, having not announced any intentions. Those that want to ensure the nominees now, based on the current field, may have to wait, till the ides of September, or beyond – however, it is most likely that Palin will make an announcement sooner than later in order, in her words (paraphrased) to be fair to her supporters.

Fox Post Debate Palin Video Below

or linkVideo Foxnews.com/Palin vs.crony capitalism

In CNN’s post debate analysis, Bachmann scored the most points – suggest reading the transcript at www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/09/13/gop-debate-analysts/index.htm, for a take on the proceedings from the network who has, as of last evening (and possibly before as the CNN Express travels with the Tea Party Express), most accurately portrayed the Tea Party and its members as viable to the U.S., the World, the Military and Latino’s as it simulcast the debate on all of its channels.

Note: tips being what they are in the world of bloggers previous to the debate, from three different sources - “She will not appear at the debate (referring to Palin) or announce this evening” – “She’s not in Tampa….” When, may or may not be speculation at this point, but out of respect for the Governor, and in light of speculation being just that, one might hold off in noting a specific date mentioned. (In the event that this is not shear speculation) The pre-debate “intel” had Palin in Tampa, about to participate, (from a variety of forums/sites) and or weigh in at some point, which she did, from Alaska.

Trump Expected To Announce Today – Under Pressure by NBC – Network Calling Trump on the Hour – Offers $60Million. Huckabee Endorses.

Trump to Announce Presidential Run Decision Today, According to the NY Post(Photo: impeachmentofobama.com

Donald Trump - Is he in, or is he out for 2012? That’s the question that the New York Post headlines will be answered soon: “Big Trump News Today”

Donald Trump plans to announce today whether he'll fire himself from "Celebrity Apprentice," a source told The Post last night.
The billionaire businessman, who has been mulling a run for the White House, has been trying to decide whether to trade his TV show for politics.
He is scheduled to meet with NBC's bosses early this morning to give them his final decision -- just hours before they are supposed to present their plans for the new fall season to advertisers.

Apparently, this is supposed to take place this morning, when NBC unveils its fall lineup – but, according to the UK’s “Daily Mail” the line-up has already been released, and it includes the “Celebrity Apprentice”, however, it is with or without Trump. NBCs, Greenblatt, apparently had no clear answer as to Trumps decision, however - “Asked if this meant NBC had a commitment from Mr. Trump that he wouldn't run for president, he said: 'We're putting a pin in that for the next 24 hours or so. Things will become clearer soon.” (Daily Mail)
However, The Mail went on to speculate about Trumps future plans, citing the announcement from Trump on Fox News’ “Huckabee”, immediately following the Governors decision not to enter the race, and Trumps response, that it was not “bad news’ for him that Huckabee had bowed out, rather, that although Huckabee would make a great president (paraphrased), other candidates are well pleased.

Governor Huckabee returned the Trump compliment by endorsing Trump’s candidacy.(State Column)

When Huckabee made his decision public, Trump apparently, must have been one of the few individuals who actually knew Huckabee’s decision, with the exception of family; Huckabee held his cards close until the final moments. With the immediate appearance of the Trump segment, which was obviously pre-recorded, it brings up the question as to just how close Trump has become to the former Governor, and Huckabee supporters, though Face book and other social network sites are now asking if there might not be a Trump-Huckabee ticket in the works – It all remains to be seen, however, for months Huckabee has spoken publicly and positively about a Trump candidacy.

As to NBC’s courtship of Trump “not to run”, Politico, on Friday reported that the network was calling Trump “hourly” and that the offer for Trump to stay on was $60 million.

One has to take into consideration several factors, one of which, although $60 Million may sound like a great deal to the average citizen and even some new members of Congress, it is a drop in the proverbial hat to Trump, who is estimated to be worth billions. Trump has noted several times that he would rather not run for the Presidency, but feels he has little choice as he feels he can right the nation economically - No matter how one slices it, that type of commitment comes from a moral perspective – which would appeal to Mike Huckabee, as well as the millions (twenty plus) of Evangelicals that would cast their vote for man. As well as moderate democrats who are disenfranchised from the current administration, republicans who, contrary to the popular media theory and certain polls by Public Policy Polling, suggesting that Trump is only relevant to the “birther issue”, independents, and surprising, the upcoming “youth vote”. That would be the new generation of voters eligible to go to the polls for the first time in 2012. With a certain segment of the electorate, they may not be able to pass a U.S. Citizenship test (which subject was brought up on Mike Huckabee’s show this weekend), but they do know celebrities, and to the average student voter, Trump, trumps Obama for name recognition – they also listen to him – not the birther issue, they give that a pass, it is the issue of securing our border, and bringing jobs back to the U.S.. The unemployment rate about teens and those new college graduates is higher than the national average by some estimates as much as 3 to 1.

Those that would hope Trump is finished (and not having a crystal ball, the announcement today, may include Trump’s bowing out of a race), and point to his big dollar contracts with NBC and ratings as the reason he would not run, apparently missed a recent interview where Trump opined on the attacks he’s suffered by just suggesting a run, let alone what will take place if he does run for the GOP nomination – his response was that he was “thick-skinned”. Trump, even if one only knows the man from a perspective of Reality Television, must understand that he is not to be taken lightly and insults, being what they are, even from those he knows in the media and entertainment business as “friends”, will only spur on Trump, and be one of the factors that contribute to a Trump run.

Therefore, should an announcement from Trump come today – (or rumors of a decision from the Post and or elsewhere) – it will either cement the GOP field a bit more firmly and or leave it wide open for those so called “lower-tiered” candidates to actually have a shot of winning the GOP nomination: the list includes: Newt Gingrich, Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Senator Rick Santorum, businessman Herman Cain and Ron Paul. Note: Massachusetts’ former Governor, Mitt Romney, has not formally announced, but has begun an “exploratory committee”, and continues to have difficulty with his version of Universal Health Care, which was used as the model for the national plan. In addition, when one looks at Public Policy Polling, or other pollsters, state by state polls, Romney is only competitive in certain states, which suggests a re-run of 2008. To view State by State polls and commentary by the Democrat leaning, but in the end stages of any political contest, accurate, pollster Public Policy Polling go to: www.publicpolicypolling.com/surveys.asp

The landscape, however, is subject to major change should Trump be a go today (or when he is ready to announce), as the media, blogs and pundits have indicated that Trump is only it for show ratings, leaving many who might choose Trump to back, hesitant to say the least. Should Trump announce in the affirmative to a run, that potential voter hesitation will no longer exist and the result will be more accurate polling vis a vis the entire “announced” field is subject to change. Additionally, one might find one Mitt Romney no longer sitting on the fence, but making an announcement to run (or he may also make an announcement similar to Huckabee’s).
One has to face the facts, the individuals who have put themselves forth, regardless of the media’s take on them, or their qualifications as defined by the media (all of them are qualified by virtue of the U.S. Constitution), will be the choices for those who would prefer to see a new President in the White House. With Gallup latest poll showing the Presidents’ approval rating down again; as of last Thursday, 48 approved, with 43 disapproving, down from a high during the Bin Laden announcement of 52. This leaves the President in a precarious position; when approval ratings do not break 50%, suggests, this “close” to a general election, that the position is up for grabs and any race would be close. Should the numbers move lower, into the 40’s, and then it would be, historically similar to the 1980’s Carter-Reagan scenario. Note: Gallup is one conservative pollster, and by conservative, one is not speaking of political ideology rather a very careful approach, therefore, these results should be used when making any “predictions”, which, as anyone is aware, at this point, over a year away from the actual election and without a firm GOP candidate or leader in the field, for that matter (with Huckabee out of the race, one should note), everything is subject to change.
What will be interesting is how Romney begins to poll, within the next 2 to 3 months as the field does become firm, specifically in the south and Midwest, which are critical to any GOP nomination. The last two major names from the 2008 Presidential race that have not confirmed: Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney (even though Romney has committed to exploring the possibility).

Many pundits have suggested that the field is weak, more due to a lack of interest in “perceived minor players” with so many “big names” still undecided, but one must recall the 2008 cycle, when one unknown Governor from Arkansas, upset the media’s predictions of a Romney Rule, and beat him soundly in the caucus state.
Not for nothing, both Trump and Ron Paul have been in Romney back yard in the past few weeks, Trump speaking back to back in New Hampshire (on the street, greeting people, and one to the chamber), and Paul in Massachusetts. One final note about Trump: In speaking with one who has a better insight into the Trump phenomena than this blogger, noted that if Trump was on the ground in New Hampshire shaking hands, then he is definitely serious about a run. The world, the media, and the rest of us regular voters, will find out soon enough, be it today, or in Trumps own time – one only wonders will Huckabee make a video appearance after Trumps decision?