GOP 2012 Update: Primary Schedule for March and Available Polls - Gingrich Out after AL, MI? - Analysis

Will Gingrich Suspend after AL and MS?(ABC News) giving Santorum the edge in a two-Man race? - image political ticker blog

The following States and Territories go to the polls through the end of March, to choose the GOP Presidential Nominee:
March 10th: Kansas, Virgin Islands, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, March 13: Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi and American Samoa, March 17: Missouri, March 18th: Puerto Rico, March 20: Illinois and March 24th Louisiana. After March, there are 22 states left to weigh in on the process including: New York, California, Texas and Pennsylvania.

Polling for the March races:
In Alabama, Rick Santorum leads with a lead of 22.7% to Mitt Romney’s 18.7%, Newt Gingrich support has fallen from 26.9% to 13.8% in the latest poll from the Alabama State University’s Center for Leadership and Public Policy. A whopping 29.8% remain undecided with 15% voting for other candidates. A second poll taken a week prior by the Alabama Teachers Association (Union) gave Mitt Romney a lead over Santorum of 31.2 to 21.6%, with Gingrich also taking 21% of the vote. (Al.com)

In Kansas Rick Santorum is favored to win the Caucuses, according to Politico, while Romney is being supported by Bob Dole, and Newt Gingrich will not participate.

Mississippi, no polling yet released, however an article from Ya’ll Politics suggests that Mitt Romney could do the impossible and win the state, this is based on the fact that Romney’s locked up endorsements (and those endorsements are delegates) of most of the State’s GOP elected officials . The website suggest that the poll taken in Alabama by the Teachers Association that gave Romney a lead, (neglecting to put in the later poll which showed Romney losing ground and Santorum leading) as the predictor to give the race in Mississippi to Romney – simply because Alabama predicts how Mississippi will go. Using that logic, should Santorum win in Alabama, then he will also win in Mississippi – Using logic in general, there is no valid polling data to date.

Missouri, No Polling available

Hawaii, No Polling available

The territories including Puerto Rico – No Polling available

Missouri – No Polling Available

Louisiana – No Polling available

Illinois – No Polling Available

The lack of polling data this close to these contests denotes either a total lack of interest in the process going south, to the territories and mid-west for the balance of March or a lower prize allocation to the candidates. Delegates totals in the balance of March races total 367 (Alabama (50), Kansas (40) Puerto Rico (23), Guam (9), Virgin Islands (9), Marianas and American Samoa (18), Hawaii (20), Mississippi ( 40), Illinois (69), Missouri (52) and Louisiana (46) - Green papers.com).

Projecting based on past state history (conservative vs. moderate); Romney should take the states of Illinois, Hawaii and the territories. The balance of the Southern and Mid-western states where Romney has previously had problems in the south and mid-west (in 2008 and now in 2012), should go to Santorum.

On Gingrich: He is not competing in Kansas, and his strategy for a comeback in the south, although limited poll data exists (Alabama) does not look probable. According to an ABC News Story this morning, should Gingrich not win in both Alabama and Mississippi, it will be time to throw in the proverbial towel. At this point, one is wondering what the former Speaker hopes to gain by stating in a contest that is clearly shifted to a two-man race. It also makes one wonder what Gingrich hopes to achieve (his original intent was to stop Mitt Romney – however, the result has been to stop Rick Santorum – Santorum and Gingrich voters are usually simpatico, with many calling the other a first or second choice. Therefore, if Gingrich’s plan is to stop Mitt Romney, then he should take the risk and suspend his campaign prior to these two contests and let the chips fall where they may. If Gingrich were to release his delegates to Santorum and turn to endorse his former protégé, then it would give Santorum a clear advantage. However, if he is a true establishment Republican as some have suggested, his staying in the race, is not to defeat, but to protect the GOP Establishment choice, Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich has been called arrogant, in his quest for the nomination, however, he is simply the brightest in the bunch – the aforementioned is pure speculation on the part of this blogger. The races going forward, it should be noted, are primarily winter take all.

This is not to say the race, even with Gingrich and of course, Ron Paul, included, will be decided in March or April, the fact is that George H Bush dropped his bid against Ronald Regan (Bush was the GOP Establishment candidate), in May of 1980.

Romney Wins FL Closed GOP Primary: State Scorecard: Romney 2, Gingrich 1, Santorum 1 – Nevada On Deck - Analysis

Romney wins Fl by 14% over Gingrich in Closed Republican Only FL Primary


Mitt Romney the former Massachusetts Governor, Bain Capital Founder and Salt Lake City Olympic Savior has won the Florida GOP Primary – with 100% of the vote counted, Romney captured 46% of the Republican closed primary; Gingrich 32%, Santorum at 13% and Paul at 7% (Freedomslighthouse). The FL State GOP, in moving the date up in the calendar year, was penalized and lost delegates – 50 delegates instead of 99 were awarded to Romney prior. In Florida’s case all delegates were awarded to the winning candidate (Romney) and it is not a proportional state – over half the states award proportional delegates (everyone picks up delegates, according to placement).

The total delegate count to date is illustrated very well on CNN Politics: where Romney currently leads with 84 delegates, 66 won in primary contests, and the balance awarded by the GOP as “unpledged delegates”. Gingrich at 27, Ron Paul at 10, and Rick Santorum at 8 with one unpledged delegate – the total delegate count to win the election: 1144.

Give the Devil his Due:

Romney did extremely well in this Republican Only Primary, winning by 14% over Gingrich who, despite the barrage of negative advertising continued by Romney and his PAC, came in a respectable 2nd with a vote tally over 500,000. It appears that Romney’s forte is the negative ad, which played well in this particular state. Santorum and Paul, unlike Gingrich, did not compete in the State of Florida.

The Speech: Romney’s wife Ann gave a very remarkable and entertaining pre-Mitt introduction speech, the candidate himself, gave a short pointed speech skewering the President – and what Romney has learned in the last month since he was hammered by Gingrich in SC is to become a better communicator. Watching Romney deliver a speech prior to this elicited a deep desire to take a nap – in all seriousness, the man does not exude excitement or the ability to connect with the given audience – he now has this down (or appears to given his speech upon winning Florida: keep the speech short and to the point, as if watching a PowerPoint rather than a teleprompter: Romney ticked off the speech speaking first to the hard won battle between all candidates, and then why he, and not Obama should be the next President, he also looked sincerely into the camera, looking more Mitt than ever before - he out-Obamaed the president in his ability to work the camera to his advantage. For that performance – Mitt deserves credit – his fortunes may well lay with his ability to be coached through both the debates and the speeches – if he can continue in this vein, he may do as well in the Republican only contests.

Doesn’t the Republican only contest represent all facets of population?

Hardly: In a closed primary only Republican’s can vote, therefore, as the Tea Party is mainly made up of the anti-establishment (i.e. non-Republican and non-Democrats) they were not truly represented in Florida, in addition, Independents tend to also include those who would normally vote for either a Republican and or Democrat, making it difficult to tell if Romney could carry any Democrats, as in Blue Collar workers.

Therefore although Florida is another notch in the delegate belt, what Romney needs to do to convince everyone on the planet that he is indeed capable (we all know he’s the GOP chosen candidate and that the last man anyone in Washington wants in the White House is Newt Gingrich, who will boot them to the curb, no doubt) – he needs to win a state that a) is an open primary, with proportional votes, and by a wider margin that 14 points. Romney simply is not picking up the base, therefore, he has to be picking up the independent and Democrats that will swing, if he cannot, he will be yet another Republican Nominee who almost beat the incumbent. On that Speech by the way, Ann Romney delivered a rousing speech beforehand, thanking those who helped the campaign, and obviously the main cheerleader for her husband, Mitt.

On Newt Gingrich:

In delivering his Concession Speech, CNN political Analysis David Gergen” said it best (Paraphrased) “That was the speech Newt should have delivered in the Debates and he may have won Florida.” Gingrich’s speech was rousing, acknowledging briefly the fact that Florida was a loss and making a point that there were 46 additional states to weigh in – in addition Gingrich had honed his message as not only the Anti-Romney candidate (although Rick Santorum has some creds on that as well), but as the Anti-Establishment Candidate – an independent voice, for the people that would not give a whit about political party –in other words, a man that would run the nation based on the ideal our Founders put Forth in framing the Constitution. Political parties were their worst nightmare – Gingrich personifies the individual who would challenge the status qua, and shake things up in DC.

That is where the Tea Party and those who feel entrenched politico’s including those non-elected Party officials that plan who wins and who loses, need to meet Newt Gingrich. The strong oratorical skills shown in SC and in the speech last evening are what makes one want to see Gingrich take on the President – he shoots from the hip – and he manages to outperform expectations – whereby compared to Romney, who has two decent debate performances to date, and both in Florida, may have appeared strong, simply because he attacked Gingrich and Gingrich failed to show up – regardless of the fact that he may have been advised to tone down the rhetoric, or if he were road weary – there is no doubt that he lost Florida on the debate, and also on the fact that it was a closed Primary.

Where does that leave the GOP? This is a primary season unlike any other – watching CNN (by far superior to FOX for those who are not blinded by the GOP or any party), Political Analyst Donna Brazile said it best when she noted the Contests should go on, and mentioned popcorn. In addition, she also noted that Romney should not put his singing talents up against the President – although lighthearted, (and paraphrased), Ms. Brazile was spot on – this is a contest unlike any other in political history – where the public demands more action, debates are billed as “The Fight of the Century”, and where the average voter is thrilled to tune in. The fact that millions, depending on the network, anywhere from 5 to 7 million (approx.) viewers will tune into a Republican Debate, regardless of the fact that there have been dozens of debates so far – GOP Debates – who knew Republican candidates could be so entertaining?

Why didn’t Sarah Palin’s endorsement put Gingrich over the top?

Palin’s endorsement of Newt Gingrich (or, if I were in Florida I’d vote for Newt) most likely reached the right people (Tea Party, etc.), but they were not allowed to vote in the Florida primary – had this not been a closed primary – as the polls were based on “likely Republican voters”, including independents and Democrats”, the righteous indignation of one Sarah Palin fell on deaf ears.

Looking at CNN’s exist polls: Florida is less evangelical and/or religious, Florida Republicans are more moderate (think Massachusetts), and therefore, they do not depict those who, in November will actually cast ballots for the Republican Nominee – or, if the Republican ninnies is not to their liking, will a) stay home and not vote at all, or b) vote for the incumbent. It is the fact that Romney cannot connect with the base, something he desperately needs to do, and that leaves this race wide open.

Nevada, the next state on the agenda, will hold its Caucus on this Saturday and again, Romney is favored by the media and establishment to win – however, one must watch the Caucus State, where the Tea Party is stronger than the Republican Party and where Ron Paul and Santorum have been in place since last week. Gingrich flew directly there from Florida and will concentrate on that campaign rather than do the morning talk shows – what one does know is that none of these campaigns would be continuing if they felt that there was not an opening in which they could capitalize and possibly reach the nomination – therefore, given intelligence and internal polls in states that have Santorum and Paul appear set to go the distance, to Tampa if necessary.

Although anyone who has read this blog over a period of time understands that this blogger is no fan of the former Govenor of the Bay State (this blogger being a resident), for myriad reasons ranging from Fees (Note to Mitt, these are taxes no matter how one slices it), to Social Issues (specifically as regards the Catholic Church and its inability to promote adoptions in Massachusetts), and the facts about Robama Care and how it is not the best plan and never was. There is some resentment in Massachusetts, one might add, due to the many promises Romney made to GOP members and did not deliver (note to the FL AG), but more importantly, the rank and file conservatives (which include the 12% of the Republicans and the 51% of the Independents in part) who feel he abandoned the state to seek higher office, used the Governor’s office to do so, and then left the state with Deval Patrick a model for Barack Obama (literally), and a State Legislature chock full of like-minded progressive Democrats. In other words, hanging those who still held out a shred of hope that Massachusetts would, somehow not become the most taxes, highest cost of living, mandated Democrat controlled state in the Union. Perhaps it’s not fair to Romney; however, that’s how it appears. As Massachusetts is an Open Primary – it will be interesting to see how well Romney does in the State where he governed, against Gingrich and Paul who already have organizations on the ground, with Gingrich (PAC) running ads well ahead of the March 6 primary.

If Romney does end up the nominee by virtue of no help from his friends in high places, then so be it, it is, at this point, debatable (no pun intended) if he can best the incumbent, who has only prepared for a Romney victory. It would be a battle of billions in dollars spent – and to this point of view, the outcome is less certain, even though those same establishment voices continue to push the theory that Romney is the best candidate to beat Obama. One has to understand, (or reiterate) a closed Republican Parity in Florida where the voters think Mitt Romney is a stronger candidate is the Establishment of the GOP, whereas, the Open Primary in SC would be those most likely to vote be they independent, Republican or Democrat – and in that primary, Gingrich took the “most likely to best Obama vote. Again, only two states, out of 50, and only 4 having weighed in so far – it will be a long road, and as Romney said, the one who emerges from the ashes of the GOP 2012 primary season, will be battled hardened, and ready for Prime Time.

NBC FL 2012 Debate Winner: Santorum and Paul Steady, Gingrich Calm, Romney 2008 Redux, – NBC’s Mitchell: RNC will Not Allow Gingrich Win

The 2012 GOP Candidates - image the Daily Beast

The NBC 2012 Florida Debate was billed as a shootout between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich – however, Gingrich did not shoot back – leaving those looking for “red meat” out of luck – the former Speaker, who to some appeared flustered by the Romney attacks (See: National Journal: Gingrich Lost His Crowd Pleasing Groove in Tampa” an article which belies the fact that the debate was held in a more controlled environment vis a vis NBC versus CNN) to Gingrich appearing more “Presidential” as a “Frontrunner” not “rising to the bait” and besting Romney (abridged see video below from NBC News Post Debate Analysis for exact verbiage).

From this perspective Gingrich appeared over cautious, professorial and not at all on the defensive, rather, almost bored with Romney, whose attacks were overlong as he hammered home Gingrich’s work with Freddie Mac (Gingrich released his contract with the mortgage giant yesterday), and charged him with “influence peddling”, which Gingrich, after a prolonged attack simply shook his head at Romney and noted that Romney had used the same tactics in 2008 with Huckabee and McCain and the American people saw through him. Gingrich brought up the fact that he is supported by former Congressman, J.C. Watts, who was the Conservative watchdog for both Freddie and Fannie during the time Romney refers to – and is a staunch supporter of Gingrich. To wit, Romney overstayed his attack, which is not unusual given his obvious frustration with his loss in Iowa to Santorum and his huge loss in S.C. to Gingrich – It was a panicked Romney that was on the podium last night.

Rick Santorum, however, calmly waited out both Romney’s long diatribe and Gingrich’s, short, pointed rebuttals, and came in with a focus on Obama – later in the debate he attacked both Romney and Gingrich, without either man answering the charges completely. Ron Paul, when given the time, was on point on economics, and to those who are more hawkish – “off the reservation” on national security. Case in point, both Paul and Santorum appeared as winners in the debate, along with Gingrich (depending, on if one is a moderate and or independent, or if one is seeking a “red-meat, rough and tumble” character in the office.”)

The fact that Gingrich is the smartest guy on the podium cannot be disputed, given the obvious attention paid to him by the post debate team at NBC, leaving one to believe they were watching an episode of the twilight zone, as the Republican Debate analysis gave Gingrich the nod as previously stated, and that included local NBC news affiliates airing footage that characterized Romney’s as a “billionaire who’s taxes will be released tomorrow, and Gingrich as one who was “calm” throughout, as if there was a cosmic shift in support of the speaker – not quite.

In the NBC post debate analysis, Andrea Mitchell brought up an interesting point, one which, if true, will mean the end of the modern Republican Party as it is known – an aid close to the Romney campaign indicated that the elite who control the party will not allow Gingrich to be the nominee. (he was credited with the failed bid for a second term by George H. Bush, hated by the moderate Bob Dole, who felt Gingrich was a competitor, and feel on the proverbial Republican Sword (he was not “ousted from the Speakership as implied), for not producing Congressional wins large enough to please those who would see an “insider” not Gingrich as Speaker.)

Apparently, the Republican elite plan to go to a brokered election should Romney fail in Florida and put up, of all people, Jeb Bush or a “Mitch Daniels”, going the route of the Democrats Super Delegate Convention that led to the election of Barack Obama. Therefore, those who run Washington and the GOP will throw a hissy fit if their chosen candidate “Mitt Romney” does not perform and will simply negate the votes of the people, and put in whomever they chose – a losing proposition no matter which way the wind blows and they know it. With no love lost on Republicans, Andrea Mitchell appears to know it as well, almost gleefully quoting the source.

As this blog is obviously supporting Speaker Gingrich, it was the “red meat” that was lacking, but with the knowledge that Gingrich is an astute politician and that he would appeal to the independent Florida vote, he would have been credited with a win, if it were not for the best debate performance to date by his protégé, Rick Santorum. Indeed, Ron Paul, who this blog strongly disagrees with on foreign policy issues, suggests that his performance outshone the speaker when, again, Paul was given a chance to weigh in – therefore a tie.

The next debate will be held on this Thursday, January 26t at 8PM on CNN The network offers an option to submit a question for a candidate in an on-site form here . the Florida primary will be held on January 31st, and Gingrich currently holds the lead in polling in both Florida and nationally (*See New York Times overview)

The Florida Primary - If Romney repeats his performance in this upcoming debate, one can be sure he will under perform in Florida and it is likely that given CNN in Jacksonville (on the Georgia Line), as the Debate arena, Gingrich should produce an even debate and will over- perform in the primary with the distinct possibility that Rick Santorum may pull second to Gingrich. (Given his debate performance) Ron Paul, made the decision not to heavily campaign in Florida, and will likely pull 4th – This depends on how much damage Romney’s debate performance, couple with the release of his tax returns, and his consistent negative campaigning, will do in the Sunshine State.

Final caveat, what one must understand is that this blog is centered in Massachusetts and as such, one might think that the blog should support Mitt Romney, however, one must be assured that after careful consideration, one has chosen to support the candidate that will best perform against the President, in both debates and with the general electorate, and one who has the history behind him to prove just that. One apparently little known tool available to all is the Library of Congress, where one can fact check all day long. It can be a slog, but it is worth knowing what the candidates supported, who they worked for and specifically what occurred during the time Gingrich was Speaker. The records are indisputable: the Speaker was under assault from the Democrats, who wanted (literally states) to “get even” with the Speaker, which was followed by Ethics charges, etc., all of which again, is available at The Library of Congress. During that time he worked in concert with the House and the White House, did indeed balance the budget, put forth the contract with America and reformed Welfare. One must look at the mettle of the man, regardless of the somewhat misleading charges brought by his opponents, (given facts), he had survived one of the most brutal assaults on a Speaker in the history of Congress, by both Democrats bitter over a loss, and Republican’s vying for power – he survived by accomplishing for the American people regardless of the personal loss he suffered. This not withstanding he is willing to do so again – which makes a tried, tested, and brilliant man this blogs choice. The chips should therefore, fall where they may, be it a Gingrich nominee, a Santorum Nominee, or a Paul nominee with no meddling from those in Washington or the GOP who think they know better than those who support them. (The rank and file).



NBC Post Debate Analysis

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The NBC Full Debate

CNN Tea Party Debate Review: Overall Winner – The Tea Party – All Candidates Rumble Showcase Ideas and Mettle – Palin If In - Strategy Brilliant

CNN-Tea Party Express Buses - Normalizing the Norm for America - image: humble libertarian.com


In what had begun as a grass roots revolt against higher taxes, the size and scope of the U.S. Government, government regulations run amok and a return to the U.S. Constitution, the Tea Party Movement (Taxed Enough Already), has been characterized as a right-wing, terrorist, crazy group of individuals, who’s raising political voice, terrorized the media and certain members of Congress and the Obama administration. The transition from fringe to mainstream was completed last evening by CNN News who co-hosted with the Tea Party, what has been to date, the best debate forum by any network, at the Tampa Fair Grounds. Wolf Blitzer took questions from both the audience in Tampa and remote location “watch parties” in three states. The size and scope of the Tea Party was made evident, and the questions posed to the GOP candidates were sound, having more to do with policy than frivolous “What would Jesus do?” questions heard in previous years debates. The pace was fast, yet, Blitzer gave time to all candidates insuring that although the alleged “front-runners” rumbled back and forth (Perry and Romney), each candidate was asked to weigh in – repeatedly. One might have expected such a move from FOX News and/or the ratings hungry MSNBC, in order to boost ratings, rather, CNN, has now become the voice of moderation – we have entered the political twilight zone.

As to winners and losers on technical points, Rick Perry held his own, yet appeared to be somewhat shaken by the repeated questions by his peers of his Executive Order mandating vaccination of pre-pubescent girls against the HPV virus, with an opt out, rather than an opt-in for parents. In addition, Perry’s in-state tuition for those on a pathway to citizenship was met with criticism. During both of these incidents, Romney remained silent, coming at Perry over the issue of Social Security. Romney, who became more apparently ruffled, looked on the verge of losing his temper on several occasions during the discourse. Bachmann appears to be still in the game and then some, appearing confident and much stronger than in the previous debate held on MSNBC, and Santorum, Gingrich and Cain offered reasonable options, along with the most moderate of the bunch, Huntsman. The perennial candidate, Congressman Ron Paul, went off the proverbial rails when he began to cite The U.S. as the cause of the attacks on September 11th, citing Osama Bin Laden – he was consequently, booed by those in attendance, and came off sounding less Libertarian than Progressive. Overall best line of the night went to Newt Gingrich: In an exchange between Romney and Perry regarding the disaster of Social Security and Romney assertion that Perry is “scaring the elderly”, Gingrich shot back: (paraphrased) "Obama is scaring everyone."

In watching the debate one began to have a sense that almost everyone of those individuals on the stage would bring ideas and leadership skills to the table, regardless of where the current standing is in the polls – the exception being, in this opinion, Ron Paul, who although brilliant, does differ from most Conservatives in regards to the root causes of September 11th, foreign policy overall, and the question of open borders. Moreover, it is clearly too early to call a permanent front-runner, as fortunes in the polls, come and go between September and the Debates of November and December, mere months before the first primary and caucuses in 2012.

This leaves room for additional candidates, a la Ronald Reagan, to enter the fray. Immediately following the debate, Sarah Palin weighed in on the debate and the performance of the current candidates, on Fox New with Greta Van Susteren, (video below). Asked and answered at least a thousand times, Palin continues to hold that her entry (or non-entry) into the 2012 field will be a time of her own choosing, not dictated by the media. However, the run-down on all candidates and the overall impression during her analysis was that she was readying to take to the field, as to timing of an announcement that is for Palin to decide. As a strategy, it may prove to be brilliant: first Mitt Romney lead the field, with his background in economics, and a short stint as Governor of Massachusetts, he was closely followed in the polls by Michelle Bachmann, who won the Iowa Straw Poll, and was within points of Romney. Perry entered the race to much anticipation, and shot past Romney, effectively pointing out to anyone with a grasp on reality that Romney has trouble holding his own in this field, and polls gave the favor to Perry, by double digits over the former Bay State Governor.

However, after last evenings debate, questions are clear as to Rick Perry’s management of the Executive order (and a possible tie to cronyism, which, although down home in style, Perry has been in a political office for the majority of his career – double points), and his immigration stance. This took a bit of shine off the Texas Governor. The points scored against Perry, as noted by the Austin Statesman came from “Second Tier Candidates” not his “chief rival”. One can view this as either Romney taking a break and letting the rest of the “pack” beat up Perry, or Romney preferred not to go where the tables could be turned on Romney.

Therefore, as the front runners so often take so many hits, and then begin to slide in the polls, a late entry not only picks up support from those candidates who no longer can sustain a campaign (too early), and /or those top tier candidates who are less appealing than at first glance. This is especially true, if one is in third place in polls, after several debates, having not announced any intentions. Those that want to ensure the nominees now, based on the current field, may have to wait, till the ides of September, or beyond – however, it is most likely that Palin will make an announcement sooner than later in order, in her words (paraphrased) to be fair to her supporters.

Fox Post Debate Palin Video Below

or linkVideo Foxnews.com/Palin vs.crony capitalism

In CNN’s post debate analysis, Bachmann scored the most points – suggest reading the transcript at www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/09/13/gop-debate-analysts/index.htm, for a take on the proceedings from the network who has, as of last evening (and possibly before as the CNN Express travels with the Tea Party Express), most accurately portrayed the Tea Party and its members as viable to the U.S., the World, the Military and Latino’s as it simulcast the debate on all of its channels.

Note: tips being what they are in the world of bloggers previous to the debate, from three different sources - “She will not appear at the debate (referring to Palin) or announce this evening” – “She’s not in Tampa….” When, may or may not be speculation at this point, but out of respect for the Governor, and in light of speculation being just that, one might hold off in noting a specific date mentioned. (In the event that this is not shear speculation) The pre-debate “intel” had Palin in Tampa, about to participate, (from a variety of forums/sites) and or weigh in at some point, which she did, from Alaska.

Trump Expected To Announce Today – Under Pressure by NBC – Network Calling Trump on the Hour – Offers $60Million. Huckabee Endorses.

Trump to Announce Presidential Run Decision Today, According to the NY Post(Photo: impeachmentofobama.com

Donald Trump - Is he in, or is he out for 2012? That’s the question that the New York Post headlines will be answered soon: “Big Trump News Today”

Donald Trump plans to announce today whether he'll fire himself from "Celebrity Apprentice," a source told The Post last night.
The billionaire businessman, who has been mulling a run for the White House, has been trying to decide whether to trade his TV show for politics.
He is scheduled to meet with NBC's bosses early this morning to give them his final decision -- just hours before they are supposed to present their plans for the new fall season to advertisers.

Apparently, this is supposed to take place this morning, when NBC unveils its fall lineup – but, according to the UK’s “Daily Mail” the line-up has already been released, and it includes the “Celebrity Apprentice”, however, it is with or without Trump. NBCs, Greenblatt, apparently had no clear answer as to Trumps decision, however - “Asked if this meant NBC had a commitment from Mr. Trump that he wouldn't run for president, he said: 'We're putting a pin in that for the next 24 hours or so. Things will become clearer soon.” (Daily Mail)
However, The Mail went on to speculate about Trumps future plans, citing the announcement from Trump on Fox News’ “Huckabee”, immediately following the Governors decision not to enter the race, and Trumps response, that it was not “bad news’ for him that Huckabee had bowed out, rather, that although Huckabee would make a great president (paraphrased), other candidates are well pleased.

Governor Huckabee returned the Trump compliment by endorsing Trump’s candidacy.(State Column)

When Huckabee made his decision public, Trump apparently, must have been one of the few individuals who actually knew Huckabee’s decision, with the exception of family; Huckabee held his cards close until the final moments. With the immediate appearance of the Trump segment, which was obviously pre-recorded, it brings up the question as to just how close Trump has become to the former Governor, and Huckabee supporters, though Face book and other social network sites are now asking if there might not be a Trump-Huckabee ticket in the works – It all remains to be seen, however, for months Huckabee has spoken publicly and positively about a Trump candidacy.

As to NBC’s courtship of Trump “not to run”, Politico, on Friday reported that the network was calling Trump “hourly” and that the offer for Trump to stay on was $60 million.

One has to take into consideration several factors, one of which, although $60 Million may sound like a great deal to the average citizen and even some new members of Congress, it is a drop in the proverbial hat to Trump, who is estimated to be worth billions. Trump has noted several times that he would rather not run for the Presidency, but feels he has little choice as he feels he can right the nation economically - No matter how one slices it, that type of commitment comes from a moral perspective – which would appeal to Mike Huckabee, as well as the millions (twenty plus) of Evangelicals that would cast their vote for man. As well as moderate democrats who are disenfranchised from the current administration, republicans who, contrary to the popular media theory and certain polls by Public Policy Polling, suggesting that Trump is only relevant to the “birther issue”, independents, and surprising, the upcoming “youth vote”. That would be the new generation of voters eligible to go to the polls for the first time in 2012. With a certain segment of the electorate, they may not be able to pass a U.S. Citizenship test (which subject was brought up on Mike Huckabee’s show this weekend), but they do know celebrities, and to the average student voter, Trump, trumps Obama for name recognition – they also listen to him – not the birther issue, they give that a pass, it is the issue of securing our border, and bringing jobs back to the U.S.. The unemployment rate about teens and those new college graduates is higher than the national average by some estimates as much as 3 to 1.

Those that would hope Trump is finished (and not having a crystal ball, the announcement today, may include Trump’s bowing out of a race), and point to his big dollar contracts with NBC and ratings as the reason he would not run, apparently missed a recent interview where Trump opined on the attacks he’s suffered by just suggesting a run, let alone what will take place if he does run for the GOP nomination – his response was that he was “thick-skinned”. Trump, even if one only knows the man from a perspective of Reality Television, must understand that he is not to be taken lightly and insults, being what they are, even from those he knows in the media and entertainment business as “friends”, will only spur on Trump, and be one of the factors that contribute to a Trump run.

Therefore, should an announcement from Trump come today – (or rumors of a decision from the Post and or elsewhere) – it will either cement the GOP field a bit more firmly and or leave it wide open for those so called “lower-tiered” candidates to actually have a shot of winning the GOP nomination: the list includes: Newt Gingrich, Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Senator Rick Santorum, businessman Herman Cain and Ron Paul. Note: Massachusetts’ former Governor, Mitt Romney, has not formally announced, but has begun an “exploratory committee”, and continues to have difficulty with his version of Universal Health Care, which was used as the model for the national plan. In addition, when one looks at Public Policy Polling, or other pollsters, state by state polls, Romney is only competitive in certain states, which suggests a re-run of 2008. To view State by State polls and commentary by the Democrat leaning, but in the end stages of any political contest, accurate, pollster Public Policy Polling go to: www.publicpolicypolling.com/surveys.asp

The landscape, however, is subject to major change should Trump be a go today (or when he is ready to announce), as the media, blogs and pundits have indicated that Trump is only it for show ratings, leaving many who might choose Trump to back, hesitant to say the least. Should Trump announce in the affirmative to a run, that potential voter hesitation will no longer exist and the result will be more accurate polling vis a vis the entire “announced” field is subject to change. Additionally, one might find one Mitt Romney no longer sitting on the fence, but making an announcement to run (or he may also make an announcement similar to Huckabee’s).
One has to face the facts, the individuals who have put themselves forth, regardless of the media’s take on them, or their qualifications as defined by the media (all of them are qualified by virtue of the U.S. Constitution), will be the choices for those who would prefer to see a new President in the White House. With Gallup latest poll showing the Presidents’ approval rating down again; as of last Thursday, 48 approved, with 43 disapproving, down from a high during the Bin Laden announcement of 52. This leaves the President in a precarious position; when approval ratings do not break 50%, suggests, this “close” to a general election, that the position is up for grabs and any race would be close. Should the numbers move lower, into the 40’s, and then it would be, historically similar to the 1980’s Carter-Reagan scenario. Note: Gallup is one conservative pollster, and by conservative, one is not speaking of political ideology rather a very careful approach, therefore, these results should be used when making any “predictions”, which, as anyone is aware, at this point, over a year away from the actual election and without a firm GOP candidate or leader in the field, for that matter (with Huckabee out of the race, one should note), everything is subject to change.
What will be interesting is how Romney begins to poll, within the next 2 to 3 months as the field does become firm, specifically in the south and Midwest, which are critical to any GOP nomination. The last two major names from the 2008 Presidential race that have not confirmed: Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney (even though Romney has committed to exploring the possibility).

Many pundits have suggested that the field is weak, more due to a lack of interest in “perceived minor players” with so many “big names” still undecided, but one must recall the 2008 cycle, when one unknown Governor from Arkansas, upset the media’s predictions of a Romney Rule, and beat him soundly in the caucus state.
Not for nothing, both Trump and Ron Paul have been in Romney back yard in the past few weeks, Trump speaking back to back in New Hampshire (on the street, greeting people, and one to the chamber), and Paul in Massachusetts. One final note about Trump: In speaking with one who has a better insight into the Trump phenomena than this blogger, noted that if Trump was on the ground in New Hampshire shaking hands, then he is definitely serious about a run. The world, the media, and the rest of us regular voters, will find out soon enough, be it today, or in Trumps own time – one only wonders will Huckabee make a video appearance after Trumps decision?

2012 Republican Update – Trump, Gingrich, Christi, Palin, Huckabee Romney

Huckabee, Palin and Romney remain GOP 2012 Frontrunners, although not yet announced - image freedomlighthouse.net

The 2012 Republican field is beginning to take shape, and although the majority of those names polled, have yet to announce their intent to run, (Palin, Huckabee, and Romney), all have expressed an interest.

This week saw Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey, entered the 2012 conversation by stating he knew he could win, however, would not enter as he had a job to do as Governor of New Jersey(NYMagazine) There are more than a few pundits who are hoping he will reconsider.

Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, has formally announced his intent to run, by forming an exploratory committee, and has suspended his contract, along with Conservative Rick Santorum with Fox News.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump made a trip to Iowa a sign that he is testing the political waters for a 2012 run.

The top three “speculated” candidates, Mike Huckabee, Palin and Romney have given timelines of sorts, and continue to dominate polls. A recentQuinnipiac Poll gives Mike Huckabee the lead, with Sarah Palin coming in as a second choice (Washington Post)

Huckabee, is on his book tour, and has noted that he will make up his mind on entering the race by summer. Although he pointed out in an interview on Fox News that he intends to wait, he is, as of now, sitting in the cat bird seat. In the interview with Sean Hannity, it was noted that Huckabee, unlike Gingrich and Santorum, has yet to suspend his Fox contract. Huckabee, never the conventional candidate, can, in this opinion afford to wait, giving time to test the waters, gauge the competition and hone is ability to fund raise.

Palin, who is also a Fox contributor is weighing when to enter (or whether or not to enter the fray), and like Huckabee, Palin is not a conventional Beltway politician. The Iowa GOP Chair weighed in recently via CNN saying it was risky for Palin to wait on a bid.

Meanwhile, Romney, is headed to New Hampshireaccording the Boston Globe “as his candidacy nears” In 2008, McCain bested Romney in the New Hampshire Primary, and the rest, as they say is history.

From polls and perspective, should Huckabee and Palin both decide to delay and announce between end of March and June (watch for suspended Fox News Contracts), both Palin and Huckabee appear to have the edge, although Palin does not pull in the first round of poll questions, or second in most polls, she does have the highest favorability in polls taken to date, the closest would be Mike Huckabee. Huckabee and Romney have taken the top slot in the majority of polls conducted by Public Policy Polling Public Policy Polling.com, however with Quinnipiac and others now jumping into the fray, different perspectives of each candidate and potential candidate will begin to take shape.

Huckabee, based on his current favorability and polling numbers, coupled with the results from the 2008 primaries (Interactive Map here at uselectionaltlas.org) may be able to announce in his own time.

In 2008, Romney took Massachusetts, Maine, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, North Dakota, Michigan, Minnesota and Alaska. Huckabee took Iowa, West Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana and Georgia. It should be noted that Romney bowed out of the race early, and Huckabee continued on in order to keep both the party in the limelight and give voters a choice as they headed to the polls. Huckabee, in 2008, ran the campaign as an “unknown”, grassroots method, with very little cash on hand.

Based on the last analysis of the 2012 electoral map using Gallup’s 2010 Presidential approval rankings, one would anticipate that it would be wise, regardless of party or political ideology, to take a careful look at all Republican contenders, as that individual, has a strong probability of being the 45th President. Should Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin jump into the race, it is this opinion that they would be the front runners for the nomination, based on data available to date. It is, as of this point, impossible to pinpoint or speculate on which would take the GOP nomination.

Regardless, the 2012 GOP debates will be extremely informative as well as entertaining, especially if all players mentioned, and of course, Ron Paul, are in the fray.