Herman Cain Wins Nevada’s WRLC Straw Poll – The Significance with Analysis on the 2012 Nomination.

Cain and Gingrich, Big Benefits from Latest Straw Poll


From the Washington Times: Herman Cain has won the Western Republican Leadership Conference Straw Poll, leading the field of GOP contenders for the 2012 nomination. The second place went to Mitt Romney (29%) 2 points behind Cain, followed by New Gingrich at a healthy 20% of the vote. As far as straw polls go, in general, they have little impact outside of the particular political party; however, this poll was conducted after the CNN debate in Las Vegas, sponsored by and packed with members of the Western Republican Leadership Conference. Those are the GOP activist, the activist that will work to secure a nominee’s position in the race. Cain, who is neck and neck or leading Romney is traditional polls, is on track, with Romney and Gingrich, at this point, to become the nominee. With the promise of an earlier than usual primary season, the fact that Cain remains at the top of the GOP pack, despite the general knowledge that Romney is the preferred candidate by the so called Republican Establishment, is, it and of itself, a victory for those who would prefer to see a non-politician take the lead.

With Fox News analysts now changing their tune to “maybe money does not matter” – are now proposing a Cain/Romney or Romney Cain Ticket. That scenario may satisfy the establishment GOP; however, it may be more likely a Cain-Gingrich ticket - solidifying the more traditional Republican base with the less traditional grassroots Tea Party and Independent voters who are taking an anti-political class stance. Additionally, as the nominating process is to begin early, one must look at the critical states that will impact the entire race, and have traditionally pushed the eventual nominee on to victory. Those states are all, for the most part, located below the Mason/Dixon line and in the Heartland. The key is South Carolina – one might take New Hampshire, and one might take Iowa, but without South Carolina, and its sister states, the candidate might as well pack it up and go on home..

Although a lot can and will happen to change the fortunes of the current “front-runners” between now and either December 2011 or January 2012 (depending upon New Hampshire’s “final answer”, it is appearing more likely that the top three Candidates are solidifying their positions in the race.

GOP Debate Reminder: Tuesday, October 11th, at Dartmouth - Bloomberg TV, Washington Post

The next GOP debate will take place this coming Tuesday, October 11th, with a pre-debate analysis beginning at 7pm est, followed by the debate at 8pm on Bloomberg TV, or streaming live on the Washington Post website.

Those who live in the Western Massachusetts area and have Charter Digital services can find the Bloomberg on Channel 299, those without Charter; check your local cable provider listing for Channel number (Comcast does carry the channel in Western MA).

This debate will focus solely on the Economy. There are nine candidates, currently, who have participated in past GOP debates, and have declared themselves for the GOP 2012 Presidential Nomination: (In no particular order)

Herman Cain: www.hermancain.com
Mitt Romney: www.mittromney.com
Rick Perry: www.rickperry.org
Ron Paul: www.ronpaul2012.com
Newt Gingrich: www.newt.org
Michele Bachmann: www.michelebachmann.com
Rick Santorum: www.ricksantorum.com
Jon Huntsman: www.jon2012.com
Gary Johnson: www.garyjohnson2012.com

For a full list of candidates: visit: http://2012.presidential-candidates.org

Trump – Is He Back In the 2012 GOP Race? - Don’t Rule Him Out!!

It began yesterday with the observations at The Wrap.com on an interview on Fox and Friends with Donald Trump – (video below), where Trump said, he’s not ruling out a run at the 2012 GOP race - and, as of today it has gone Hollywood, literally The Hollywood Reporter also picked up on Trumps reversal. In the interview, Trump views the current field as lacking – Trump does not see those individuals beating Obama – The interview, below, is telling, Trump continues to site the fact that one gives up so much, personally when one runs, but he leaves the door open for a return to the GOP field. It’s been incredibly boring since Donald Trump left the race, and those that would have voted Trump (Democrats and Independents), are having a difficult time viewing the balance of the field seriously.

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee (two former Governors) lead the field of GOP "potential candidates" image: current.com

In their latest 2012 Presidential polling of South Dakota Public Policy Polling surveyed a sample of 1045 South Dakota voters, matched closely to the electoral makeup of the state. In the case of South Dakota, Huckabee again, bests the list of potentials, with the exception of state Senator, John Thune. However, against Obama, Huckabee leads by 47 to 41%, Romney by 46 to 40%, with the balance of the GOP “frontrunners” (Gingrich and Palin specifically), trailing the President by 2 points (Gingrich) and 8 points (Palin). With this latest survey, the pollster views South Dakota as a swing state for Obama in 2012, based on the performance of McCain in 2008, who won the state by “less than 9 points”, and the performance of those who may or may not run on the GOP ticket.

In Arizona, which was polled on February 2nd, the state appears more competitive for the President, with Romney and Huckabee leading Obama by 49/43(Romney) and 48/44 (Huckabee). The balance of the GOP primary choices in this survey were limited to the top four, leaving Obama tied with Gingrich and ahead of Palin by 9 points.

In Republic State Primary scenarios, the latest polling shows Huckabee bests Romney, Palin and Gingrich in South Carolina, coming in behind South Carolina’s Jim DeMint by 4 points, and ahead of Romney by 6 according to a survey conducted February 1st by Public Policy Polling.

In the final analysis, according to Public Policy Polling, Huckabee and Romney appear likely to emerge as the two strongest candidates in early GOP primary states. Romney has been running the talk show circuit, appearing on the ”The View”, and showcased his agreement with Obama on the current situation in Egypt, noting that Mubarak should step down. He also appeared on the Dave Letterman show, spoofing a “Top Ten Things You Don’t Know About Mitt Romney”, which according to Politico was designed to show “voters he’ll be a better, more relaxed and relatable Mitt this time around”.

Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee has been in Israel, commenting on Palestinian Settlements noting that those Jewish settlers on the West Bank have a right to be there, which, according to the AP, is in direct opposition to International leaders including Obama. In addition the AP story casts Huckabee as an “evangelical leader and Fox News host”, rather than his primary role as former Govenor of Arkansas (not mentioned). Time reports that Huckabee’s views on the Obama administrations’ handling of the situation in Egypt are at odds – Huckabee believes that the administration was too quick to abandon Mubarak. Huckabee's views are at odds with Romney’s, who has sided with the Obama administration.
Huckabee, one must note, has been a staunch defender of Israel, as our only ally in the Middle East, and the recent trip gave the former Governor an opportunity to highlight his foreign policy views and where they may differ from Obama, and for that matter, Mitt Romney.

Although Romney has all but formally announced his intention to run, Huckabee, leads in the majority of polling by PPP to date - both men seen by that pollster as the frontrunners. That said, in polling against Obama in Massachusetts, Romney does not hold his own state faring better than the balance of the GOP potential candidates in the survey conducted on Dec. 3, 2010. In this particular poll, however, the electoral make-up is skewed towards Democrats, with the following discrepancy Democrats 42%, Republican 20% and Independents 38%. Massachusetts Independents dominate both parties, making up over 50% of the electorate, with Republican’s holding approximately 12 to 14% and Democrats 35%. To date, this is the only poll conducted by this pollster, where the electoral makeup did not closely match those polled. (Using voter statistics from Secretary of State Websites in each of the polls conducted.)

Overall, one can look for Huckabee to announce (or not), either end February or when his contract with Fox expires (or he takes advantage of any clause in the contract which allows him to bow out). Huckabee has noted, however, that if he announces, it will not be until June of 2011. That may accomplish two things: he will have a solid understanding of which states he fares best in (with thanks to PPP), regarding primaries, and will give him the additional time to sum up any late entries into the competition as well as work on foreign policy. In that wise, although considered a frontrunner now, (by pundits and pollsters) he would, in reality become a fresh face in the pack, one armed to the teeth.