Election 2012 – Obama vs. Romney – focus on swing states? Why are “Safe Democrat” States Polled Less than 2 Weeks Apart? Opinion Essay

Mitt Romney, former Governor of the Bay State, Candidate for President 2012

It was surprising to more than a few households in this conservative enclave in Western Massachusetts that their phones rang yesterday and they found themselves answering an automated poll! The polling, conducted by Public Policy Polling (a pre-recorded announcement) – is a bit surprising for two reasons. One, the Bay State is rarely polled, and several pointed out that they had never been polled before (and we’re quite thrilled to put in their two cents), the second reason, Public Policy Polling just polled Massachusetts on September 18th, a poll in which it shows President Obama with a substantial lead and a 52% approval rating. The question, why are they polling a second time? Perhaps it was to focus on the Warren Brown Race, (but that was only one of several questions, the majority focused on voter trend and the Presidency: who did you vote for in 2008, if the election were held today, who would you vote for, and then the demographic questions. (Age, Gender).

Perhaps they are shoring up their data, counting their electoral votes before they are hatched, or perhaps to emphasis that Obama is doing just fine – in Massachusetts?

What one has to consider in these polls, is the geographic data. When one looks at the state of Massachusetts and voting patterns, one find that, yes, there are Republican’ and Republican leaning independents in this state, but, the big but, they are spread and most of this is geographic: Therefore, if one were to call Worcester (Central MA) one would find a majority of Conservative, or for that matter several areas on the north and south shore. However, Western Massachusetts is similar to say, Cambridge, a much smaller population that the balance of the state, and home to the left of center and reliable Democrats, the actual Republican is rare, and Conservatives (part of the Unenrolled who are the majority of voters in MA), might be few and far between, and generally found in certain cities and towns and pockets. One neighbor remarked after the Brown election in 2009, that the neighborhood was crawling with Republicans! (A polite and avid Progressive, who expresses frustration over this fact fairly consistently.) That said, from the Connecticut River West and North along the eastern edge, the political ideology is more 1960’s than 1980’s, replete with tie-dye, long white hair and beards, and bongo’s – it’s referred to as quaint! There’s the urban center, such as Northampton, birthplace of Calvin Coolidge, the last Republican from Massachusetts to attain the Presidency. Northampton, home to Smith College, (Think Rachael Maddow), has the lovely town of Amherst to its left – home of UMASS, or locally referred to as the “People’s Republic of Amherst.

Now, understanding the lay of the land, one would anticipate that there would be no need to poll, considering one poll affirming the huge Obama lead was just produced by the same pollster and polls cost money. But, and here is the big but, Massachusetts has recently been redistricted, due to population loss. The entire state, when viewed on a redistricting map, has all of Western Massachusetts in one district (formally two) the 1st District cover’s half of the state – the most reliably Democrat part of the state. There was one district that was gerrymandered to include a the conservative enclaves of central Massachusetts, taking some of hoe more reliability Republican cities and towns, and pushing them away from the former 3rd district into the 4th, the fourth also lost the large urban centers of New Bedford and Fall River. This is the main reason Barney Frank retired, he had a close call in the 2010 elections, managing a 10 point lead over his challenger Sean Bielat (and that is with the dead voting). Most reasonable people would think a 10 point lead is huge, however, in Massachusetts, most Congressional Candidates enjoy a project 75% win, and that year, according to the New York Times, Barney Frank was going to sail through the election process, so was Richard Neal, the Democrat from the former 2nd District. They both had first time Republican Challengers, and the expectations we’re low. However, those that had, in the past, run minimal ads, or perhaps sent a direct mail piece – were actually campaigning and were forced to spend huge sums, call in big name party favorites – such as Bill Clinton, to help them win. The lay of the land, therefore, had changed.

Yet they still won, even if the margins were considering higher than anticipated.

Looking at this scenario, one would then wonder why, if election data from 2010 is so readily available on the Secretary of States Website, (from return of votes by city and town, drilled down by party,) why not use the most accurate data. However, if one were able to direct a poll, especially via robocalls, (which can be programmed to avoid or include specific area codes, and cities and towns) – it would make sense for a pollster, in support of a particular party, or commissioned to poll by a particular organization, to call into an area believed to be 100% Democrat.

There have been a few polls lately on the state, what with the race between Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren, which makes sense, but, looking at those polls, one of which supplied geographic data, it was surprising to see a large percentage of those polled came from Western Mass, two to one, over those polled in Central Mass. Therefore the odds of polling a Democrat were greater.

One has to ask, why aren’t pollsters and that goes toward any pollster, but especially the professional firms, employing the state data, to evenly proportion a state based on geography combined with voter trends from the last federal election. This would produce a more accurate poll, the rest of the polls. Therefore, as polls are being conducted without regard to voting patterns in a state, or worse, intentionally targeting a particular section of the state that favored, say one party over another, they are –in a word-useless.

Perhaps they believe that by producing poll after poll which is fed to the media, and those pundits that sit upon their Beltway thrones, that somehow, should it appear one candidate is winning, then that candidate will eventually win, a combination of psychology that most of the “masses” will vote for the most popular candidate (the one ahead in the polls), and the fact that those supporting the underdog, will become concerned, and being to blather on about how that individuals campaign is sinking.

Will it work again? It worked swimmingly well in 2008, but there were other factors at play in 2008. John McCain was the weakest of three candidates standing as August reared, the strongest was Hillary Clinton, who, for all intents and purposes had the popular vote in the primary, and a choice between Clinton and McCain was a no-brainier. But, in the face of a Super-delegated candidate Obama, at the DNC convention, one had no choice but to vote for McCain, if one leaned Conservative at all. McCain, although a nice guy was just not in the least exciting, and also to be fair to McCain, the Republican brand had been so damaged, the ghost Ronald Reagan could not have been elected.

This election is a bit different however.

There are sides drawn and candidates are focused on swing states, the news tells us that these are the y keys to Obama’s victory. The polls tell us so. The pundits are assailing Romney for not being hard enough, or aggressive enough, or what-have-you, while the left (the press and the Obama Campaign) blast Romney for the most incredulously ridiculously inflated non-starters. They recycle old news, as if its breathtaking revelations as to how “bad” a candidate Romney is.

To someone who is, admittedly supporting Romney, but, that was not always the case - watching these polls and pundits repeating the negative mantra vis a vis Romney, it makes one believe that those who swear by these polls, are blindfolded.

Which is why one questions all of the polls, but, especially polls coming from individual States from swing to those that should be “in the bag” for Obama or any Democrat. PPP should poll the north shore of the Bay State – a recent poll commissioned by the partisan RNCC, gave the Congressional Challenger a fairly large lead over the incumbent Democrat, but more shocking and no less of import, the poll indicated that Romney and Obama were tied, and Brown was running away with the race in that district. The marginals showed the percentage of households in the state, with the results, and they were indeed skewed to favor the Republican. But, after looking at the city by city statistics and voter by party affiliation, one found the poll to be – perfect. It was based on the right percentage of voters Democrat, Republican and Unenrolled in that district.

A district Obama had won in 2008 by 20 plus points over McCain, a District that was redrawn to protect the seat of the Democrat.

If PPP has knowledge of that poll, and how it was conducted, then calling all of Western Mass makes sense, given the fact that it was withdrawn to be heavily Democrat. If PPP were a Democrat Polling firm Supporting the President. It could very well be the expense.

But it still begs the question why would they poll a State that is considered Safe Democrat, where a Republican can rarely win? The last Republican Governor was Mitt Romney, the 1st Republican Senator in decades is Scott Brown, and the last Republican to attain the White House from the Bay State was Calvin Coolidge. One would think there would be no need to poll. Maybe once, or twice, but repeatedly? Polls taken twice in the space of two weeks by the same pollster?

Unless that poll commissioned by a partisan group – somehow ended up being the most perfect poll as far as data is concerned – in recent memory, caught the eye of a campaign or pollster, instead of a “citizen” who writes opinion in a small enclave in Western Massachusetts.

In this opinion: Romney is doing everything right, and call it crazy, but his even tone, his measured response, and even his “alleged” gaffes, are ringing with those in the center, in the middle, the moderates, those unenrolled. He’s not a politician in the usual sense of the word, not the most charismatic (being charitable here), and not the most polished when it comes to off the cuff performances – but is the perfect looking, most popular guy in the class, really what the nation is looking for in a President this time?

We won’t know, we can’t know, because the polls are simply guessing games unless they are drilled down to the city by city, district by district level and that would cost too much. Therefore, what we, the consumer, are left with is anyone’s best guess, and if one feels their candidate is down in the polls, then one is most likely heading to a phone bank, plant a yard sign, or silently wait to go to the polls and show support by voting.

Those pundits who never set foot out of the heartland, or the broadcast booth, might want to trip into one of those swing states, or even the state next door to get an idea of how people are thinking, they might be surprised, that the gaffe the media considers shameless is being cheered on by the “masses”.

2012 GOP Update – Michigan Swings in Final PPP Poll toward Santorum – Election Predicted to be Cliff Hanger

Public Policy Polling’s final marginal’s on a two day poll released yesterday show a Rick Santorum with a one point lead over Mitt Romney in Michigan. (PDF here.) - the poll has a margin of error of 3.2 points. There are several points in the poll that are of particular interest – the first being that early voters (18%) polled cast their votes by a margin of 56% Mitt Romney to 29% Rick Santorum, however, those that have yet to cast their vote prefer Rick Santorum to Romney by 40 to 33%. Santorum, whose economic plan suggests a zero tax for manufacturers, does slightly better with union members 37 to 32% to Romney, with 8% of the poll taken including Democrats (63% Republican, 29% Independent). The majority of those included in the poll did not watch the last debate (66 to 34%) and 27% of those responding may change their minds going into today’s vote. The statistics what Michigan voters are seeking in a candidate is most telling – with 56% preferring a candidate that they agree with on issues, and the top priority being the economy besting social issues by a margin of 64 to 19%.


Public Policy Polling, a Democrat leaning polling firm, is most often rock solid in predicting outcomes this close to an election, predicting Santorum’s Trifecta in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri. The fact that they are this tight, with a swing in Santorum’s favor the second day of polling, gives Santorum a slight edge, but still within the margin of error – making the Michigan Primary a nail-biter.

GOP 2012 Polling – Gingrich, Romney, Paul – Endorsements This Week - Obama No Idea Economy Was In Tough Shape When He Took Office - Commentary

Now there are three - Romney Paul and Gingrich - image cnn.com

Every pollster under the sun has been polling the GOP race, both nationally and in Early Voting and Swing States – the results depending upon the pollsters are fairly consistent both in GOP only and then national polls. The GOP only national polling shows both Gingrich and Romney in the same positions with slight changes over the past week: Gallup has Gingrich with a lead of 31% to Romney’s consistent 22% - also consistent are Ron Paul at 8%, Rick Perry at 7%, Michelle Bachmann at 6% with both Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman picking up 1 point respectively and those with No Opinion (or more likely those who will vote for whomever is the nominee) moving up 5 points.

Rasmussen, on nationwide “likeability” has Romney leading with 53% of the electorate having a favorable or somewhat favorable opinion, while Gingrich is seen as favorable or somewhat favorable by 43%, among Republican voters only However, Gingrich holds the edge on the “very favorable” category leading Romney by 31 to 22%, however, both men are tied at an overall “favorable opinion” at 80%, the balance of the field falls below 50% favorability, with candidates such as Huntsman holding low favorability due to lack of exposure nationwide (i.e. Never Head of/No Opinion). Although this poll is more of a “popularity” poll, rather than a “who would one cast their vote for poll”, it is of some import given the fact that those lesser known candidates nationwide may have some time to pick up points, taking away from one of the top tier candidates.

In a second poll on the strength of candidates Rasmussen shows both Gingrich and Romney as those seen as the “strongest GOP opponents for Obama – with Gingrich at 30% and Romney at 29%. This suggests that regardless of the poll or the pollster, the enthusiasm among Republican voters, and determination to nominate someone they see as being best able to unseat the incumbent, President Barack Obama with good cause – given other pollsters weighing in on the national contest.

Gallup shows Romney and Gingrich with a “slight” edge over Obama in twelve key swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. These are the states where Obama held an 8 point lead in 2008 over McCain. That said, Gallup shows both Romney and Gingrich (with Romney faring better) losing ground to Obama in the national polling. With Obama at 47 to 46% (Romney) and 50% to 44% (Gingrich). Although the President’s Job Approval Rating according to Gallup shows an historical correlation between the incumbent and former one-term President Jimmy Carter’s.

President Obama's 43% average job approval rating last month ranks as one of the lowest for an elected president in November of his third year in office. Only Jimmy Carter had a lower rating, at 40%. But Carter's rating surged in late November 1979 because of a rally in support after the onset of the Iranian Hostage Crisis, and he averaged above 50% in December. All recently elected presidents were at or above 50% in December of their third year in office. (Gallup Polling December 2, 2012)
Note: as of December 10th Obama held an approval rating of 45%/to 48% disapproval. (Gallup Polling Dec. 10th)

As much as one enjoys a poll, however, the polls most likely to be close in predictability are those that are taken three weeks or less out from an election, therefore, at this juncture, national polls, or polls in states with primaries beyond the 1st week of January are much less accurate. As of this point, two states are in the spotlight: Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa, a caucus state, polling plays a smaller roll than in other states, due to the nature of the ground game (the candidate with the most time in on the ground and the largest group of supporters would upend a candidate that may have spent millions on advertising, but had less of a ground game. Ideology also plays a factor in this state where half of the electorate is Conservative Evangelical Voters, with the balance either leaning Moderate or Libertarian. Which would go a long way towards understanding the latest polling reported by The Daily Caller where Public Policy Polling shows Gingrich and Ron Paul within a point at 22 (Gingrich) to 21 (Paul) and Romney at 16%.

The Poll also indicates that Paul is gaining over the past week on Gingrich, while Romney remains the same, and Bachman, Santorum and Huntsman have all gained in the past week. The only candidates remaining stagnant are Perry, Romney and Johnson (The other Libertarian in the race). Again with Iowa, polls taken at the caucus could be wildly unpredictable, but, generally speaking, the candidate (s) three weeks out from the caucus will either place first or second if they lead by ten or more points. A side note on Public Policy Polling, although a decidedly Democrat leaning firm, the level of accuracy in polling close to the race has been extremely consistent.

Finally, the President is on the campaign trail as well with Politico reporting that Obama’s latest “tactic” for holding a second term is to tell the public he simply had no idea of what he was getting into as far as the economy was concerned. The actual quote: "I think we understood that it was bad, but we didn’t know how bad it was,” Obama said in an interview with KIRO in Seattle. "I think I could have prepared the American people for how bad this was going to be, had we had a sense of that." belies the fact that at the stage where an individual is the party’s nominee, they also should be well enough informed of what is taking place, not only with the economy (He did, as an acting Senator, rush to sign the TARP program), but on foreign and domestic policy as well.

One would hope, every single candidate, both GOP, the President representing the DNC, and a host of minor party candidates, all understand the extremely difficult task before them. It will come down to who the voters believe have the best understanding of the situation at hand, and who is most capable of leading the nation forward. In addition, that individual must have a record of working successfully with both sides of the aisle, and sometimes disappointing those members of their own party who would prefer a more “solid conservative” or in the President’s case, a “solid Progressive” that does not bend. Unfortunately, when the President panders to a Political Party, then gridlock ensues. That is a key sticking point for voters in this election – gridlock. Those who are the final nominees (one is a given) will have to not only prove merit to handle the job at hand, but also the record and ability to work with both sides of the aisle, without compromising principles. It is a job that, frankly, for those either crazy enough or brave enough or egotistical enough to apply and hope to get the job done.

2012 GOP Poll Update - Bachmann Chasing Romney in New Hampshire and Texas

From Public Policy Polling: Michelle Bachmann has made a significant jump in the polls in New Hampshire with Romney at 25% and Bachman at 18%, followed by Sarah Palin (unannounced) at 11%. In April’s survey, Bachmann was at 4% - these polls suggest a fluidity in the early stages of the GOP, with any one candidate capable of making a “come from behind” advance, however, a candidate such as Bachmann, (or a Sarah Palin), must fight the anti-feminist sentiment towards women running for a higher office (regardless of the political party), therefore, this leap suggests that Bachmann is a force to be reckoned with. Although Public Policy Polling suggests that Bachmann (and Palin) are “Tea Party” candidates, the numbers apparently do not add up when viewing the marginals. The percentage of voters identifying themselves as “Tea Party”, do lean more towards Bachmann, however, she also picks up points from those identifying themselves as Republican primary voters in the Granite State. What might be seen as most significant to Team Romney is the fact that this surge for Bachmann is literally in Romney’s back yard, as he has a home in New Hampshire as well as Massachusetts, which borders New Hampshire.

In Texas polling by the same firm Rick Perry, Govenor of Texas, takes the lead in his home state with 31%, Romney at 15% and Bachmann at 11%. However, with Perry taken out of the mix, Romney and Bachmann are “neck and neck”: Romney at 17% and Bachmann at 16%.
Public Policy Polling, known as a Democrat leaning pollster, does place a great deal of emphasis on “Tea Party” versus “Republican Party”, however, those in the polling booth understand that both parties carry similar ideals, the Tea Party founded basically on Fiscal Conservatism, made up of individuals from all aspects of the political spectrum, which happens to include Republicans as their anti-tax, fiscally conservative stance is on the “same page” as the Republican Party. Therefore, it goes without saying that a Tea Party or Republican Candidate would be, at this present time (and into 2012) preferable to the incumbent. The use of “Tea Party”, is a warning bell for those “elite” who really do not understand the premise of the movement, rather see this movement as a threat to their preferred “Big Government”, liberal views.

It should be noted that if both Palin and Perry enter the fray, these numbers are subject to change, in addition, those that may come from behind, such as Tim Pawlenty, or a front-runner like Mitt Romney may find themselves with roles reversed – there has been two debates to date, both early in the scheme of things, and those debates, as well as the grassroots organizations built on the ground in early primary and caucus states (the most important being South Carolina), will eventually give the GOP in 2012, with two to four competitive candidates, a real horse race. The early primary states leading up to Super Tuesday, are so diverse in nature, that it is difficult for anyone to appeal across the board – New Hampshire running Republican/Conservative/Tea Party, with Iowa seen as an “Evangelical Christian” stronghold, and South Carolina as the Southern Tip off – one cannot win the nomination without either winning or tying in South Carolina.

From this perspective, although one would like to see both the fiery Texas Govenor enter the race, and Sarah Palin come in as well, (those who might think there is not enough room for two women in the same arena, should check their sexism at the door), would make this the most competitive GOP field in history. The exchange of ideas from such a diverse group of individuals would allow the small group that does watch these debates (political junkies and GOP primary voters, and the media) an ability to hear, first hand, the beginnings of each of the candidates “talking points” and ideas. One has to understand that in the debate arena of 2008, by the 3rd debate, all competitors (from both political parties) were being somewhat repetitive – it would be refreshing to see debates where the “same old talking points” were at the very least rephrased – freshened up a bit. That’s the candidate who would gain the attention – the individual who is able to communicate to all watchers or attendees without rehashing last week’s lines, and without the use of ludicrous slogans (A slogan is fine but once it’s repeated ad nausem in multiple settings it becomes – annoying: Example: “Yes, We Can” (used by both Deval Patrick and Barrack Obama in back to back campaigns) – Yes, we can – do what? After a point no one in the “crowd” has a clue as to exactly what it is that can be done – sounds snappy – but that’s about the end of it. (One can be sure there were others from both sides, but less memorable or perhaps just a bonus for living in Massachusetts and having heard the slogan not once, but twice, repeated constantly on air and by the candidates from 2006 to 2008.)

Obama 2012 PollsLags: Rasmussen Any Republican Bests by 4 Points, Public Policy Polling: Obama Trails 3 GOP Candidates - Huge Loss with Redistricting

Romney and Bachmann currently most likely to best Obama in 2012 - image NY Daily News

As the summer of 2011 hits mid-stride, and only seven months to go before the first primaries are held, President Barack Obama’s polling indicates one-term is more probable as the weeks go by. Rasmussen’s latest poll on the President’s electability against a “generic” Republican candidate now stands at 46% (Any GOP Candidate) to 42% for the President. The survey uses a larger than average sample of 3500, giving a smaller margin of error – plus or minus 2 percent. Considering that Obama bested McCain in 2008 by 7.2% (no incumbent), Bush bested Kerry by 2.46 in 2004 (July of 2003 Bush job approval at 60% (Gallup), with the highest “mandate” given to Nixon garnering 23.15% over McGovern in 1972 (no incumbent), and Reagan besting incumbent Jimmy Carter (job approval 29%), by less than 10 points in 1980, (Source for general election statistics: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections), notes that those incumbents who are historically below the 50% approval trending incumbents against job approval ratings from the previous July, lost the election with a varied margin, those above the 50% approval were re-elected (again with a varying percentages). Therefore, the likelihood of a recovery for Obama from this point forward is dimming.

With redistricting taking place, and Texas being one of the prize states, Public Policy Polling’s latest on the Lone Star State indicates Obama would lose both the popular and increased Electoral College votes: now rating at 42% approval. GOP candidates that lead Obama are: Mitt Romney, Michelle Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty and Ron Paul (Paul’s home state), he is tied with Herman Cain and leads the non-announced Sarah Palin by 1 point. Given the fact that the pollster trendsDemocrat, and in all press releases accompanying polls makes no secret of the fact they are pulling for Obama, makes these numbers doubly troubling for the President.

In the last Gallup 2010 state by state poll on Obama’s job approval, the President broke 50% in only 10 states, including California, Massachusetts, New York, Illinois and Vermont. should Gallup’s 2011 survey (due most likely 3rd week of July) show no improvement, coupled with the continuing decline against “Generic” GOP candidates nationwide, the election eve map will look eerily familiar to either Nixon’s or Reagan’s, even if he manages to continue to hold onto those 10 states.

One suggestion to anyone who wants a voice in who the next leader of the free world may be (of any political leaning:) start looking at which one of those GOP announced candidates one might prefer over the other as the probability that (as of this survey) Romney or Bachmann (the two leading most state polls in early primary/caucus states), would be the next President. Either one or actually any one of the announced candidates previously mentioned that would have the best chance of winning the GOP nomination – would, based on statistics, go on to best Obama in the general.

Donald Trump to Speak to Nashua NH Sold Out Chamber of Commerce Business Expo Today – Telegraph to Carry Speech Live – Latest PPP Poll Analysis

Donald Trump will speak at the Nashua, New Hampshire Chamber of Commerce today – the event, a business expo at the 700 member Chamber is sold out. The Nashua Telegraph will carry the event live on its website at www.nashuatelegraph.com/topics/trumpnashua. Trump will be speaking at the event luncheon, which will take place from 12 to 2.

Trump, has indicated that he will make an announcement regarding a run as a candidate for the GOP 2012 Presidential nomination, after the end of his realty TV show, “Celebrity Apprentice”. Trump, who began by polling at the top of the GOP pack when included in 2012 polls, had fallen to 6th place in Public Policy Polling’s May 10th National poll. Although the pollster has been described as “a firm with connections to prominent Democrats”. and is known to lean towards Democrats, it is usually, towards the end of any given campaign cycle, accurate within the margin of error. The pollster’s releases have focused heavily on the Obama birth certificate issue, when including Trump in its polls and specifically highlighting the issue in connection with trump in all releases.

The latest poll of 602 likely GOP voters included Trump on Question #5 for favorability; with a 34% favorability rating, 12% unsure. Palin had the highest at rating at 61%, besting Gingrich, Romney, Trump and Huckabee. In the 6th question Trump is included in a field of eight candidates and one category: undecided – he places above Michele Bachman and Tim Pawlenty, ties with Ron Paul and polls behind Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and Romney. Mike Huckabee takes the lead on this poll with 19%, 11% was undecided as to any of the potential announced or unannounced candidates. The poll included the question of the President’s birthplace with 48% of respondents believing the President was born in the U.S. (Public Policy Polling). In the prior National Poll released in April Trump was not included in the favorability questions, rather thrown in on Question 9 as a "finally what if?" question. The pollster has included Trump on all State polls since April: polls are available here.

Although jumped on by the media as “proof” that Trump has taken a dive among GOP voters nationwide, Trump’s political fortunes are subject to the reality of the economy and specifically Donald Trump. It remains to be seen how the media will cover the speech today at the Nashua Chamber: expect questions regarding Trump as a “racist” on his questions on the Presidents birth certificate and or the latest PPO poll. The media has taken a keen interest in Trump; which has taken away some of the vitriol aimed at Sarah Palin. Huckabee, who also has yet to announce due to contractual arrangements with Fox (similar to Trump and Palin), has enjoyed the least scathing coverage by the general media. Should Trump, who appears to be rather thick skinned when it comes to the media, announce his candidacy, (based most likely on internal polling, which one can bet the house, is taking place), it will be interesting to see how the media, and Hollywood react. Incidentally, the media to date also considers Trump potential candidacy as “not serious”, viewing it as a “publicity stunt”. In this opinion, it is not only a serious bid, but one that will surprise and in all likelihood Trump the media.

CNN-Opinion Research Polling Obama Believed Unlikely to Win Second Term – Compares Obama to Clinton in Polling Data Release - Analysis

Trouble in River City – No matter how one slices it, 51% of American’s polled in a CNN-Opinion Research Poll believe that Obama will be replaced in 2012. The poll (PDF here) taken the last week of January 2011, compares 1995 Gallup Trends polling on Bill Clinton’s presidency to the results of their poll on Obama in order to draw the conclusion that Clinton was polling in similar numbers to Obama now, and went on to win re-election.

In looking at potential two-term Presidents and polling, in January of 2003, George W. Bush was polling at approximately the same numbers as both Clinton and Obama, however, he was expected to win, not lose the Presidency. What one has to consider when viewing polls on individual Presidents, is the key word “individual”. Each President had an individual approach to leadership, which either appealed or, in some cases did not appeal to American voters a year before the general election campaigns began. In comparing the results of Bill Clintons poll numbers to Obama’s poll numbers is akin to comparing apples to oranges. Clinton was viewed as a moderate, the polling was taken in January of 1993, following the news of personal scandals involving President Clinton – it was, in a word, an approval or disapproval of a personal nature, not based on the man’s ability to govern. The Republican’s nomination of Bob Dole in 1995, a weak candidate, gave Clinton the help needed to gain a second term. In addition, Clinton transitioned as a moderate, and with apparent sincerity. Consider Welfare Reform, for instance, and a solid economy, an appearance of working closely with both sides of the aisle, since he took the office in his first term lent to his reelection in 1996.

There are several reasons that Barak Obama may not realize a second term, regardless of an apparent move to the center, and his recent epiphany regarding Ronald Reagan’s policies, the chief among them, his polarizing effect on the electorate, his administrations performance on the Health Care Reform and the Economy will also continue to play a factor. At this stage in the game, regardless of the fact that there are, according to CNN, no clear frontrunners in the GOP field (as no one has clearly announced an intent to run), Obama’s job approval continues to remain stagnant, and sinking on his handling of the economy (latest Gallup).

Although not one of us has a crystal ball to predict a future, it is, based on historical trends and reactions in comparing Obama to a similarly ideological U.S. President, Jimmy Carter, where one finds a basis to realistically anticipate the probability is high that Obama will not gain a second term. Carter not only faced dismal poll numbers, and a challenger from within his own party, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. Carter did go on to win the nomination, but lost the Presidency to Ronald Reagan in what can only be termed as a total repudiation of Carters’ policies.

When one reviews, the economies under both presidencies (Carter/Obama), their handling of the respective situations in a similar manner, and subsequent failure, the advancement of the government roll and entitlement programs under both administrations, and finally, foreign policy as regards the Middle East, would appear to data worth reviewing. Perhaps CNN should have compared a similar president, ideologically speaking, in their polling on Obama, say Carter, rather than Clinton to draw an accurate conclusion. However, as badly as the media (CNN) wants Obama in a second term, the use of Clinton as an example, does nothing to support the theory that Obama, like Clinton will overcome this deficit.

On the Republican potential nominees, Mike Huckabee receives the highest approval and favorability, with Mitt Romney and Palin both at his heels in the same poll. What was of interest in this particular portion of the poll, the question on the import of a candidates’ views matching one’s own, or the ability of a candidate to best Obama – Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents overwhelming chose the latter. Therefore, one might overlook Romney’s involvement in Massachusetts Care, or Huckabee’s “liberal” ability to govern across the aisle (not to mention his Christian Credentials), or even Sarah Palin’s “polarizing personality” if it was though that individual would beat the current President.


Note: Although by now, readers of this blog understand that Public Policy Polling is a favorite pollster, (based on two facts: 1) accuracy of their polling data) and 2) They are a Democrat Leaning firm which, if one finds Republican’s with gains in a firm that skews Democrat, then one cannot question their integrity, or the integrity of the polling data. This firm has been polling both the GOP field (as it is seen now), along with matchups between those GOP potentials and the President since 2010 – the results are telling: To follow the trends visit http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/surveys.

End Week Polling Shows Huckabee with Edge in General Republican Primary with Huge Lead over Obama in Key State of Texas

Mike Huckabee Leader of the Pack - image Politico

, Public Policy Polling, a decidedly left of center polling institute, has, since early January factored that Mike Huckabee, former Govenor of Arkansas, would be the best choice for the GOP Nomination. There analysis was based, not on his polling numbers at the time (which were lower, in some cases than other GOP “contenders”), but rather on how well he would fare against each of those considered competition. This particular Pollster is one to watch, as they have an unusual ability to forecast correctly, and have a fairly solid record. One need only look at the races and analysis for the 2010 election on their website Here publicpolicypolling.com/surveys.asp">, to get a sense of their overall methodology and accuracy.

The Huckabee Factor:
In a poll released on January 21, 2011 Huckabee, in a sample of 512 likely Republican Primary Participants, bested the front runners in double digits. (Republican candidates for President in 2012 used for this survey were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune.) Huckabee leads Romney by a full 10 points, Palin by the same amount, with the balance most in single digits. Only 16% were, at this point, undecided this early in the game. Polling for second choice, (should a preferred candidate fail to run), Huckabee fairs equally well.

In reviewing the marginals, the poll was heavily weighted with those Republican’s who considered themselves conservative at 73%, with 25% moderates, and 3% who consider themselves liberal. Keep in mind these are individuals who historically vote in Republican primaries. This, however, does not indicate the poll was intentionally skewed to a more “conservative” share of voice, given the recent Gallup Polling that indicates Conservaitves ideology among the U.S. Populace, continues to increase, and leads both Moderates and Liberals. In addition, Gallup surveyed Republican’s in particular, and those results, 72 Connectives, 24 Moderate and 3 Liberal, are in concert with the Public Policy Polling methodology In other words, Public Policy Polling was “conservative” (meaning cautious) in their polling schematics.

The firm released as new poll as of the 22nd of January, focused on the State of Texas. Setting the stage – why Texas? Texas, which just increased its clout in the upcoming 2012 presidential race, due to increased population, will experience a gain in Electoral College votes. Texas, in this instance, has gained 4 seats (see 2012 Electoral College map on www.270towin up to 38, making Texas one of the richest in Electoral College votes, only bested by
California.

In the poll released January 22 and taken on the 20th, Huckabee leads President Obama in the Texas by 16 Points – the balance of potential candidates:

Mitt Romney has a respectable 49-42
advantage, and Newt Gingrich a 48-43 lead. But homegrown Perry only matches the
president at 45%, and Palin posts an insignificant 47-46 edge.,

(PPP)

In these polls, marginals reflect the makeup of the electorate in Texas perfectly. One can “follow” Public Policy Polling on either Facebook, Twitter or through a feed reader available on their blog publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com. Given the fact that none of the above mentioned potential candidates has actually “announced” an intention to run (with perhaps the exception of Mitt Romney, and that other potentials such as Mike Pence of Indiana are not included in the polling (Pence is still undecided as to which race to run in: Indiana Govenor or National Race). However, those political junkies will not have long to wait. Huckabee indicated in a recent interview that he will make a decision in June of 2011, which, incidentally, is the same time frame he choose for the 2007 run. Sources in Arkansas, however, do indicate the former 2-1/2 term Govenor from Hope Arkansas, will enter the fray.

Gallup 2012 Update: Huckabee Leads in Favorables, Palin in Name Recognition Among Republican’s and Independent Leaners

The Top of the 2012 GOP Contenders, sans Gingrich: Huckabee, Romney and Palin - image: freedomslighthouse.net

A new poll released today, January 10thby Gallup, gives projected 2012 GOP Presidential candidate, Mike Huckabee a fairly wide lead among the balance of the pack of projected candidates. When one considers that the Independent or unenrolled play a major part in each election, generally adding the points needed to push a candidate to the “win”, see 2010 Mid-Terms, this is particularly of import to Huckabee and/or any candidate regardless of party, which is able to positively identify with the independent (generally moderate) voter. Huckabee’s score on favorability was 30, with the nearest contender, Newt Gingrich at 24, both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin followed with 23 and 22 respectively. The scores for Recognition favor Palin, who comes in at 95 followed by Huckabee at 87; again Romney and Gingrich receive the next highest scores. (See Gallop table below for all results.)


Poll from Gallup on 2012 Potential GOP Candidates - click to enlarge - image: Gallup.com

Also: note from Gallup on polling numbers; they apparently used only the highly favorable and unfavorables in determining the “score”, rather than include the “somewhat favorable” or “somewhat unfavorable”. This may or may not have affected the rating overall, however, given that there are four that are, currently, leading the “pack” in recognition, one can estimate that the two that would be “neck and neck” would be Palin and Huckabee (given Palin’s overall scores on Recognition).

Although none of those mentioned in the poll have declared their intent to actually run for the Presidency, it is expected that some or all will enter the fray, with Huckabee, Palin and Romney, the most likely.

Huckabee’s favorability makes sense, however, when one looks at the “mix” of Republican and Independents utilized by the polls. He is not considered “far right”, as Palin, or for that matter, Mitt Romney, who is a fiscal conservative. That said, articles written about the former Govenor by the press, normally begin with the fact that he was a Minister, not the most recent resume regarding politics, his 2-1/2 terms as Govenor of the State of Arkansas. This goes to the “threat” level of Huckabee as seen by most of the “mainstream” media. The hard fiscal right, “The Club for Growth”, by way of example, paints Huckabee as a liberal, rather than allow the fact that the man governed from the right, moving to the center when it benefited his constituents. They promoted former Govenor, Mitt Romney in 2008, going so far as to place advertising with a message that was decidedly unfavorable to Govenor Huckabee. That will, undoubtedly reoccur in 2011-2012 should Romney (who has all but declared officially), and Huckabee both run.

Additionally, the blog over at Public Policy Polling, an unabashedly Democrat leaning polling firm with one of the best records in calling races (they were spot on with the Brown-Coakley race in MA, as well as many others which end result of the poll may go against their grain, so to speak), has written a recent article on Huckabee as a candidate. Entitled Huckabee’s the Best for Now” the writer outlines the reasons why, at this point in time, Mike Huckabee is a better candidate than the leading four mentioned in the Gallup poll. It is worth the read.

As speculation mounts, and every anchor or reporter who has the opportunity, asks each one of the “potentials” when or if they will announce their intent to run for the presidency, it is certain that the field will narrow, with at least one, most possibly Gingrich (historically), not running, and several candidates, also not listed, who will decide to run. That said, should Huckabee decide to run in 2012, he will have the definitive edge on favorbles, which will translate into independent leaning votes. Should he take the GOP primaries and eventfully the nomination, he would be a formidable opponent in 2012. He has a calm, seasoned approached that comes across as reasonable leadership. In addition, as the Govenor had run in 2008 and every possible strategic shot was taken (as in condemnation from the right and left for “alleged” crimes: i.e. minister, raised taxes, pardons while Govenor), those voters who are giving Huckabee the edge, are already aware of the aspersions cast and debunked by the Govenor and history.
One thing is certain, only time will tell if this field of “candidates” will be “intact” in six months, at which point candidates, most candidates will have made their intentions clear.

2010 Mid-Terms – The MA 4th and 10th - Polls and Pollsters – Guessing Games and Statistics versus the Ground Game and Enthusiasm

The Boston Globe has released new polling data showing the 4th District incumbent, Democrat Barney Frank, leading his Republican Challenger, Sean Bielat by 13 points, while in the 10th District, Democrat Bill Keating leads Republican Jeff Perry by 4 points, however how accurate is this polling data? The Globes polling on the 4th District mirrors polling recently released by a Rhode Island’s WPRI which has Frank with a 10 point advantage. Both pollsters used samples of approximately 400 likely voters, with the WPIR poll showing 12 percent undecided, while the Boston Globe poll shows 11% undecided in the 4th and 23% undecided in the 10th race.

In the case of the Globe, the poll also factors enthusiasm, with those committed to voting for the Republican candidate leading those intending to vote for the Democrat. The Globe article also brings the Brown-Coakley race into the factor – which, past polling in the Bay State has used President Obama’s popularity as indicative of which way the outcome is likely to lean.

That said it is difficult, with large numbers of undecided’s, small samples, and reliance on previous statistics to indicate the outcome of any race – as it is also easy to pull apart a poll and argue the outcome will be different – what it boils down to is, is the ground game, and to be contradictory, voter enthusiasm.

Back to the Brown/Coakley race: During the early stages of that particular race through the final days, a variety of pollsters and pundits weighed in on the fact that Massachusetts was reliably Democrat, and that Brown’s attempt to upend a Democrat would either fail completely based on Globe polling data, or come “close”. Alternately, after Brown’s 5 point victory, (the only pollster that called this race correctly was Public Policy Polling a Democrat leaning pollster.) pundits began to call the outcome an anomaly, one that could not possibly be indicative of the coming races in Massachusetts.

The single most important factors in the Brown – Coakley race was the ground game and voter enthusiasm, which, those relying on most polls at the time, would have consider Coakley a shoe-in, however, what was happening on the ground in Massachusetts told a different story – which, in every corner of this state, has not changed since the January 19th election. Therefore, to those who call Massachusetts lost for eternity – and malign voters from a variety of districts for continually reelecting certain incumbents, one has to say, it’s not over until the votes have been cast. Historically, Massachusetts has been reliably “Democrat”, with the exceptions being when the economy hits the skids – and it has, in Aces.

Interest in Massachusetts races has climbed to the point where Public Policy polling is considering polling the Bay State again. What that tells us, if anything, is that the races are of interest, or more to the point, outcomes that are one the line, and that the notion of “Safe Incumbent” is, probably somewhat misleading. It will be those who are committed to voting that will determine the outcome as always, and regardless of party, and of advertising dollars spent, or the notion that “nothing ever changes”, those races where there is either no polling (or alleged internals which have been duly noted), or where polls can be examined and reversed by questioning statistics employed, the candidate that has the best ground game now, and the unenrolled in Massachusetts (specifically) in sync, will win, regardless of party. Massachusetts has experience a significant change in collective political think over the past two years, and to deny that in the face of polls with large margins, undecideds and/or are not indicative of the voter registration either in the state or the district, and pundits, is, in a word ludicrous.

Penn. 12th District Special Election Update – Latest Polling Burns Leads Critz 48-47 – only 35% of Dems Excited about the Race - Analysis

Businessman Tim Burns leads Democrat Critz in latest poll - image Tim Burns for Congress

Public Policy Polling released the latest poll on the race to fill the PA 12th Congressional Seat yesterday. The vote will take place on Tuesday, and according to this poll, will come down to the wire. Public Policy Polling is one of the more accurate pollsters, and specifically of more import as the organization is noted to “lean left” (although most likely not as left as say the Daily Kos, or The Boston Globe (see poll released one week before Browns election giving his opponent Coakley a 15 point lead), lending a bit more credence to those polls that are patently biased. The marginals are located here: showing Burns with a 1 point lead over Critz with 6% either refusing to answer or not decided.

Only 35% of the respondents approve of Obama’s job performance (always thrown into polls for good measure), but the kicker: favorables for Burns are at 44% while Critz has a favorable of 39%, additionally, only 29% of respondents approve of the job the Democrats are doing in Congress, statistically equal to the response for the Republican Congressional job performance. The political ideology of the poll: Democrats 55%, Republican’s 30%, Independents 10%, which is roughly in line with the makeup of the district. By party, Burns takes 22% of the Democrat vote, and leads Critz 52 to 31% with Independent voters. Finally, Republicans and Independents lead Democrats in the “excitement factor” of the race, with 52% of Republican’s eager to go to the polls compared to 35% of the Democrats polled.

The margin of error is plus-minus 3.4% with 831 likely voters participating over the weekend (May 15th & May 16th). Public Policy Polling notes that, due to the fact that both Major Political Parties are given low grades by the respondents, and finishes with the fact that neither party would be able to claim a “mandate” should the race finish by 1 point. Although one has to wait until the dust settles, it would appear that Burns overall favorability and the lack of enthusiasm by those Democrats polled, the 9% that are undecided (or flatly refused to answer), are the key to this particular poll – should they break for Burns (given the following factors: Pelosi and the Congress low popularity in the district, the low popularity of the Health Care Program and the lead in excitement among Republican’s and Independents, one can see this swing plus 4 points towards Burns in a heartbeat. It’s the enthusiasm of the Republican and Independent voters who lean Republican and the disaffection of the Democrat voters that will carry Burns to the finish on Tuesday. The real possibility exists that a split in the 3.4% margin of error can be added to Burns 1%, giving him an outright victory of 3 plus points, and as Browns race, (plus 5) was considered a mandate, any win over and above 3 points in a heavily Democrat district is a clear mandate for both Burns and the GOP.