So Long Harry and Thanks for All the Fish! The President’s Legacy – Will He or Won’t He Work with the GOP once freed of Reid?

The title is in reference to Douglas Adam’s 5 part trilogy beginning with A Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy and ending with “So Long and Thanks’ for All the Fish”. Basically if one has any familiarity with this irreverent take on life and its karma – then Harry Reid is about to become of those characters, the villain who is given his comeuppance, as the party faithful flee.

Tomorrow will be a day of historic proportions some pundits suggest, however, it may also be the tipping point in a mid-term where the population, in general, rejects, not only the Administration’s policies, but the progressives as a whole. Time of course, will tell, however, a recent Suffolk poll on the Massachusetts Governor’s race is telling. The Marginals (here) are chock full of surprises: In this poll, Baker leads Coakely for the Governor’s office by 4 points, and the President’s approval in MA remains underwater at 44%, Hillary Clinton’s visit to help out Martha Coakley had a net zero effect, with 61.4% suggesting it made no difference at all and finally, 28% watched Fox News more than any other network. The poll was based on Massachusetts political enrollment, 51% Unenrolled, 11% GOP, and 38% Democrat (approximately) – which does not bode well across the board for Progressives. The Ballot questions are also of interest, most favor keeping the casino and reject including bottled water, etc. in the states bottle return program.(Boston Herald)

North to New Hampshire, is the Scott Brown Race against Jean Shaheen, which is, at present a tie, Iowa was a tie, until a Des Moines Register Final poll showed no contest at all, with Earnst up by 7 points, and the Democrat Candidate suggesting she looks like Taylor Swift (Politico)

It is indeed a world gone somewhat wild. Given that the Republicans are set to take upwards to 10 seats (as some models show Iowa as a toss-up), and additional congressional seats, the President will be in a position to get things accomplished, should he be of that mind. With Reid gone from the equations (possibly a loud and obnoxious voice in the Senate to be sure, but no longer hampering votes and legislation from seeing the light of day, the President will have more opportunity to pass or veto as he sees’ fit.

Should the President reject overtures of bi-partisanship from the new Congress, then they have a loud enough group going into 2014 to continue to “Bushwhack” him, and the White House will also fall to the GOP – which, given history, is more than likely to happen even if the President was granted sainthood.

That said, a legacy is at stake, and rather going down in history as the rival to Jimmy Carter, he does have the opportunity to come out of this looking a lot more like Bill Clinton. The question remains, will he use the next two years to thwart the congress by any means (including overreach of the Constitution), or will he “play ball” and give and get in the dance of legislation?

Voters Are Angry – From MA to CA – Pelosi Begs for Cash as Rome Burns – Rand Paul in 30 States Supporting Candidates - Small tsunami or Armageddon?

According to CNN voters are somewhat miffed, to say the least, a full 60% or greater are angry at the direction of the country – that type of anger, the pollster suggests, is exactly what drove the wave of 2010 – the U.S. House takeover by the GOP. (CNN). What’s more, Nancy Pelosi is reported to be asking for cash from her minions in the Congress as the situation in House races is dicey again this mid-term. (Politico).

If that’s not bad enough, that rascally Rand Paul (KY-R) is running ads in Kansas of all places, to support the Senate candidate in that state. In addition, Rand’s PAC has been busy this mid-term, in other states where there is a need of support. Revealed by ABC news Rand has visit 30 states in this mid-term. (ABS News).

The standard GOP team for 2016 must be having conniption fits – Rand, not the ideal GOP candidate due to his many faults, such as voter outreach in groups largely ignored by the Party due to “belonging to the other party”, and darn it, a different approach to tax payers money (not spending it), and foreign policy (let ‘s not get overly involved) – yet he’s got the Reagan mojo going, and is undoubtedly the only candidate they have, or more precisely the nation has, that is a) willing and b) capable of reining in the insanity. That’s this opinion of course, however, historical patterns do play out – it is time for change in a positive direction – a candidate that will appeal to a large cross-section of the populace.

Massachusetts is seeing an anomaly as the GOP Candidate for Governor, Charley Baker, has been endorsed by almost every paper in the state, including the Boston Globe(Boston Globe) and the Springfield Republican.(Masslive) This is just the icing on the cake with Martha Coakley's 9 point deficit in the Boston Globe poll.

Two competitive Congressional Races are shaping up in MA – John Chapman against Incumbent Keating in the 9th district, and Richard Tisea versus newcomer Seth Mouton, standing in for defeated former 6th district rep, Tierney.

In New Hampshire, Scott Brown has taken the lead slightly over Jean Shaheen, whose supporters are sticking yard signs everywhere about the state touting her close relationship with the President – they will receive thank you notes from Brown’s campaign come that Wed. Morning in Nov.

The theory goes as follows, if Massachusetts has suddenly gone slightly purple, and then what of the rest of the nation where blue is not normally the flavor of the month?

Never mind the Tsunami – Armageddon is upon the Democrat party, and they know it. It is time for new leadership of the JFK ilk to pull my father’s party out of the ditch – not one capable person on the horizon that fits the bill.

Something New, Nothing Borrowed, Nothing Blue – Massachusetts Reacting 2014

For all the ills that are affecting our great nation, mainly due to incompetence of leadership in the administration, which is effectively perceived as the Political Party it represents, the final straw has broken. Take Massachusetts, the “bluest” state for example; there is a possibility and a better than average possibility that both the Governor’s Seat as well as two Congressional seats will see changes in a few weeks.

The first is the battle between Charlie Baker and Martha Coakely – Martha being a flawed candidate3 from the getgo has made the national stage again in Poltiico’s hit piece “Martha Chokeley”. Basically the article outlines the problems Martha has faced in the past and faces still, unless the dead vote, and there are mysterious voting boxes in certain districts that are friendly to non-english speaking voters, Martha will go down in proverbial flames. The Unenrolled (which describes this bloggers political affiliation as none) have had it.

This lack of enthusiasm and distrust of all things old (or holding office) is evidenced by a new poll (PDF Here) released by Emerson College/WGBH, not exactly conservative pollsters, regarding the 6th Congressional District. It is not so much that the Republican, Richard Tisei is that far ahead of the Democrat running, it is a draw given the margin of error. The stunning reveal in this poll is Obama’s approval rating: a 62.6% unfavorable opinion of the President exists in the 6thth Congressional district. Blow me over with a feather.

This is Massachusetts.

Over on the Cape, the incumbent Democrat, Keating is a tad on the squeezed side, according to the Boston Globe, John Chapman is handing him his hat – yes another Republican Pickup.

If one understands that the Cape is more conservative than say Lowell and the 6th district, one can well imagine that without some serious cheating going on, the Democrats will lose heavily in Massachusetts.

This is Massachusetts – where there is a point that the people rise up and say, enough – the news out of everywhere is so horrifying that event he level headed are starting to think that the end is near, especially those who are currently holding offices and have a (D) somewhere in their history.

If this is taking shape in Massachusetts, then imagine what is happening elsewhere?

Where less progressive heads prevail.

2014 NH-MA Update – Brown Gains on Shaheen, Baker-Coakley Tied - New -Obamacare at Tax Time

The Boston Globe is reporting that Scott Brown’s gain’s against incumbent Democrat Shaheen is due to the “anti-Obamacare” sentiment in the Live Free or Die state (Boston Globe). Given the fact that USA Today announced those who did buy Obamacare with Subsidies will be seeing a penalty at tax time. The gist:

A significant benefit of the Affordable Care Act is the opportunity to receive money-saving tax credits up front to cut the overall cost of health insurance, but now hundreds of thousands of consumers could owe back some of that money next April.

Those affected took advance payments of the premium tax credit for health insurance. Some married couples could owe $600 or $1,500 or $2,500 or even more. It might feel like a raw deal for some who are already suffocating under the escalating costs of health insurance.

(USA Today)

Unless some sort of miracle occurs, and the trust is regained in politicians who have pushed this policy forward (all Democrats), then Brown should handily win in New Hampshire, and have plenty of company in other “safe” Democrat Senate and Congressional races nationwide. If that issue were one alone, it would not play as well, however, there is the immigration issue, the ISIS issue, and a host of other scandals that will have far reaching effects (see 2016).

The Massachusetts Governor's race also appears to be tied up: Rasmussen got involved and found the race at a dead heat with 1 month to go. (MASSLive) Martha is, perhaps, the worst second chance candidate the Mass Democrats could have fostered. Favoring raising taxes, scandal after scandal, and a very weary electorate should see Baker in the corner office. The only thing that makes this a “may” is the ability of the Dem boots on the ground to miraculously come up with 30,000 extra voters 11 hours before any given election (should the odds not be in their favor.) If Baker and the State GOP do not have poll watchers and attorneys present at most of the major cities, then it may still go Martha’s way. The Secretary of the Commonwealth has left the million plus dead and missing voters on the roles for just such an occasion. Incidentally, those same dead voters collect ebt cards . Local news stories, which do not appear to have much of an effect when the balloting is done. In order for Baker to best Coakley he needs to be 5 points up. When that happens, it’s a Baker Governorship.

Massachusetts 2014 Governors Race – Primary Challenge for GOP – Charlie Baker and Mark Fisher – Could a Republican retake the Governor’s office?

It goes without saying that Charlie Baker will be seeking the Governor’s office this year as Deval Patrick finally exits. He will, however, face a challenger, Auburn, MA businessman, Mark Fisher. Fisher, who is more Tea Party, offers a non-politically connected option to those Bay State primary voters – His website: www.markfisher2014.com offers an about Mark, as well as an issues page. Charlie Baker who ran in 2009 against then incumbent Deval Patrick, managed a loss of 1% based on a third party (Independent) candidate – or someone who was a Democrat conveniently turned Independent in time for an election. Baker’s website www.charliebaker2014.com offers issues and insight into the candidate as well.

In Massachusetts politics one is instantly inclined to ask – “why bother” when Republican’s run against what is the Democrat machine in the Bay State. However, Boston Magazine suggests that with the top Democrats vying for the Governor’s office, there is not a great deal of confidence.

It would be the same if all nine of the Congressional seats (mainly incumbent Democrats) were also facing challengers, there would and should be a lack of confidence. The reason is not that the Bay State has suddenly turned red – by no means. It is more the anti-incumbent and anti-political party – that should have anyone who paid the slightest attention to the statewide local elections nervous. There were good and not so hot, mayoral races (outside of Boston) that went either way – with incumbent Republicans and solid Democrat mayors finding themselves short on vote, being replaced when it was thought not quite possible.

Since Massachusetts has been cast in the roll of what to do to win national elections, one might want to take a hard look at who is the least “political party” candidate and factor that person as a possible contender for the win. Of course, that does not take into consideration the usual Massachusetts.

2014 Charlie Baker Will Run for Massachusetts’ Governor’s Office – Second Run Announced Via Social Media

NECN Reports that Republican, Charlie Baker, will make a second run at the MA Governor’s office. Baker made his announcement via social media rather than the expected Press Conference. Baker who ran against incumbent Democrat Governor, Duval Patrick in 2010, lost by a small margin of 6 points to Patrick – both faced former Democrat, Tim Cahill who garnered 8% of the vote, with the state split between Baker and Patrick by county. Head to Head, Baker won heavy population counties, Essex, Plymouth and Worcester by 4 or more points, Norfolk by .1 point, and Barnstable, a lower population county by 3 points. Patrick took Bristol and Middlesex by 5 plus margins, Suffolk (Boston) a smaller county by 20 points, lower population areas, Dukes and Nantucket by a larger margin, with the Western side of the state, Hampshire, Berkshire and Franklin County coming in by 20 plus points, and Hamden, the most populated county west of Worcester, by the lowest margin of 5 points. (New York Times)

Massachusetts, however, tends to turn red on occasion, and Baker has shown strength in the 3 way 2010 race. Moderate Democrats tended to lean towards Cahill, who swayed the race in Patrick’s direction. Without a stronger, high-profile Democrat turned Independent in the race, and a likely more Progressive Democrat running against Baker, all bets will be off until the dust settles.

Massachusetts, known as the “bluest state” is home to Cambridge and Amherst, Progressive conclaves that are locally given the moniker “the People’s Republic of…”, the balance of the state tends to be Independent, with 50% of total registered voters noting a status of “unenrolled” in either party.

Massachusetts – Democrats Switching Ballots to Republicans in “Surge” of Thousands Finals Days Prior to Election

Tom Wesley, a man "For and of the People" Running for Congress Against Richard Neal, and getting a helping hand from "thousands" of Democrats in the District! image Politics2010


A report from news from Channel 3, CBS News Springfield, MA, last evening began by speaking about a surge in voter registration changes and early data suggesting that Republican gains in Massachusetts suggest that change from the Bay State did not end with Scott Brown’s victory in November. From"CBS3’s, (WHFS, Springfield, MA), Matthew Campbell:

“Republicans have been surging. Riding a wave of voter frustration into the November elections, they hope to take key seats in the state and elsewhere.
So far, early numbers suggest they have a very good shot. Springfield's Election Office reported that they've seen hundreds (video below notes “if not thousands”), switch their registration from Democrat to Republican this year. Speaking with Secretary of State William Galvin, he echoes the same results from around the state.”

Both the video (below) and web version of the report began with the sign for a Democrat rally, put up on the Springfield City Hall then taken down as citizens complained about the legality of a Democrat rally banner placed on City property days prior to the event. In interviewing Governor Deval Patrick and MA2 Congressman, Richard Neal, both looked somewhat uneasy at the suggestion that change may occur on November 2nd in Massachusetts.

The shift in the party registration has been evidenced at rally’s in recent days for Neal Challenger, Republican Tom Wesley, who is dubbed as a “career citizen” in reference to his run against Congressman Neal, who was first an aid to George McGovern, then Mayor of the City of Springfield, then a State Legislator, prior to moving on to the Congress in the 1988. Neal has held that position, unchallenged, since that time, and has a record in the past two sessions of voting lockstep with Democrat Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, 98% of the time. Those attending the Wesley events have left the Democrat Party, and are working with vigor for Wesley – the biggest reason for the switch and the surge in voters (internal polls have incumbents breaking for Wesley 70/30 in the district) is the fact that Brown was sent by the people as a message, and that the message was ignored by Congress. This change in party is occurring in the rank and file as well as with elected officials. Recently, a member of the Springfield City Council, Timothy Rooke, switched parties and endorsed Republican Charlie Baker for Governor.

Additionally, in an article released by the Worcester Telegram and Gazette, on October 26th, talks about Neal having a large “war chest” from Special Interest Groups” and interestingly, Neal’s campaign manager, notes that the only polling done was at the behest of the Neal Campaign, and that Neal was doing well. This statement contradicts one made earlier on said polling. When queried by this blog regarding leaks from the campaigns polling firm suggesting Neal was showing dismal numbers in the district, it was said that there simply was no polling taking place.
Although playing “devil’s advocate”, the campaign have done a second round of polls, however, one would hazard to guess, results would be the same. Additionally, these media reports of heavy campaign war chests by Special Interest Groups coupled with the constant articles from all Bay State media about the monies brought into the district and state by both Neal and Patrick are having unintended consequences. They are firming the commitment of the general public to vote Republican and/or switch political parties based on the public distaste for deficit spending.

The Massachusetts 2nd Congressional District, not unlike the balance of the Bay State, has been, for the past few decades, led by those “unenrolleds” or independent voters who make up over 50% of the electorate. Using statistical data of the district ( here ), one can see that using figures from 2008 party registration (no longer accurate based on an unknown increase in Republican Registration and decline in Democrat Registration) the district placed 27% more votes for Scott Brown than Martha Coakely, in January of this year; this suggests certain Congressional districts, like the 2nd, which are rated Likely Democrat by Washington pundits, might better be deemed as a toss-up, at the very least.

In other words, without enough base to stem the tide, will the usual trolling for votes in Nursing homes (this blog has personal experience in that regard in the 2000 election), dead voting in the Bay State, and the union vote (12 %of the voting bloc nationwide), be sufficient to keep the career politicians in office - unlikely as it did not work for Coakley..

Therefore, if thousand are switching political affiliation across the state, then just how many Congressional Districts are in play? The answer is 9, which is historical in that there are 9 challenged Congressional races, let alone the fact that 4 to 5 of those races are most certainly on the radar. Will all races be by wide margins of 5 or more points? Most probably not, however, they will all be close, and it is now a safe bet that the makeup of the Massachusetts Congressional Delegation will be changing on Nov. 2nd.

Finally, based on the video below, one has to ask, do the answers by Deval Patrick and Congressman Richard Neal, and indicate that they are ‘confident’ in this race?




To learn more about Tom Wesley and his citizen’s campaign for Congress visit www.tomwesley.com and volunteer or donate – the final days of the campaign will be critical, and when an opposition may even pull out the dead and disabled to vote to maintain a long-held office, every hand on deck is of import.
Side note: How critical are the MA Congressional Races: polling stations across the state will be monitored by volunteers, in numbers equal to or surpassing the Brown election

MA 2010 Governors Race: Deval Patrick Tea Party Motivated by “Hate”, Charlie Baker(R) Ties Patrick (D) in Latest Polling, Cahill (I) an Afterthought

Deval Patrick(D) and Charlie Baker (R) Statistical Tie


A Rasmussen Poll on the Massachusetts Governor's race released on Friday, gives the embattled Democrat (and Obama-Axelrod Field Test) a 3 point lead over Republican Candidate Charlie Baker. The poll is well within the margin of error (45 to 42 with a 4.5 % margin), which is a statistical tie. Included in the poll is the third candidate, Democrat turned conveniently independent Tim Cahill, who was part of the Patrick administration.

As earlier predicted, Independent candidates normally receive under 6% of the vote in Massachusetts which can make for many a close race. That said, Cahill’s had some problems paying taxes, which appears to be a resounding theme this year among candidates – following in the footsteps of “Tim Tax-Evading” Geithner who was confirmed by the Democrat controlled Congress, despite having made some “errors” using Turbo Tax. That apparently has left the door open for all candidates regardless of party. Although, Cahill may have stood a better chance had he done a 360 and changed political parties – as in run as a Republican. Historically third party candidates don’t do well in the Bay State.

Now that Mr. Cahill is quickly becoming an afterthought – The Baker Campaign has the opportunity to move those poll numbers to Scott Brown/Coakley levels or possibly beyond – given the governors general approval ranking, which has mysteriously risen in the past three months of furious campaigning (by the state media) up to, according to Rasmussen’s poll, 49%!

That said there is discontent in the Bay State over higher taxes (implanted by Patrick and company in July of 2009), and interestingly enough, his push to fund college education for illegal aliens. Baker is scoring higher in the “viewed favorably” section of Rasmussen poll, and name recognition, across the Bay State has not reached full potential. Therein lays the rub, the more the voters get to see Charlie Baker, the more they like him.

In a recent on air gubernatorial debate, Govern Deval Patrick discussed the Tea Party – (audio embedded below) and how members are “fueled by hate” (which is the party line in places such as Cambridge, and Amherst), however, a recent Friday gathering of Tea Party Activists, shown in poor quality photos below (given the fact that this blog has no talent in regards to photography), depicts individuals expressing their freedom, although the photo’s are not representative of the entire group (as it coverage both sides of a major rotary, the signs held and visible were Patriotic not hateful – which is the norm, unless one is an incumbent Republican who is running against a Tea Party backed candidate or any Democrat. Therefore, with the dogma in place, and the race tightening, one can see the following taking place within the next three weeks: Baker (R) leading Patrick (D) by 5 points, with Cahill, a blip on the radar, nothing more and nothing less.


Audio of Deval Patrick Tea Party Hate Rhetoric



Tea Party Rally, Signs: American Flags, Don't Tread on Me, a few signs referencing Taxes and Tea.... (Chicopee, is in Richard Neal's (D-MA2) District)


Hundreds line both sides of Rt. 33 in Chicopee, MA in Tea Party Rally

AZ’s Jan Brewer Draws More in Donations than Anti-AZ Immigration Law Protestors in “Liberal” MA – Deval “Obama” Patrick Weighs in Favor of Ilegals

Arizona Governor, Jan Brewer, Faces Fans and Protesters in Boston, MA - image Phoenix Business



It was expected that the presence of Arizona Governor Jan Brewer at the Governors Conference in Boston, Massachusetts would draw crowds of Illegal Immigration supporters in massive protests – not the case. The “pouring rain” excuse was used in touting the “estimated 600” protesters who appeared in Boston to protest the Governor and SB1070, Arizona’s Immigration Law that mirrors the Federal Governments existing Laws. One would think that these protesters would have been from Massachusetts, however, according to ANSWER, a group of “community organizers” who staged the protests, participants came from: "throughout the region, with organized transportation coming from Worcester, Fitchburg, Providence, New Haven, New London, New York City, Syracuse, Baltimore, Washington DC, Philadelphia and elsewhere”. According to other sources, including the Boston Herald the figure was closer to 400, not including pro-Arizona protesters.


Pro Illegal Immigration Rally in Boston - Image Boston Herald

Can one find Pro-Arizona protesters in Massachusetts? Indeed, as well as individuals willing to donate to the defense fund for the State of Arizona. An estimated $7,000 has been donated by Bay Stater’s – so far.


Pro Arizona Protestors in Boston - image Boston Herald
Not everyone in Massachusetts is sympathetic to Arizona, including Massachusetts Governor Duval Patrick, who, according to the Boston Globe ”Blasts Immigration Crackdowns”. Patrick is up for reelection in 2010, and also used that time to whine about the Republican Governors Association running Anti-Patrick Ads for Republican Challenger, Charlie Baker, calling them ”Stone cold partisan”. Of course, the Democrat Counterpart to the Republican Governors Association will begin running anti-Baker ads next week. Patrick, at the very least, grasps the obvious – Political ads can be – partisan.
So, why the disconnect between Governor Patrick and his constituents in the Bay State (one does not include the Democrat controlled City and Town boards who have instituted the aforementioned boycotts)?

Perhaps he missed the latest from, WWLP, of Western Massachusetts reporting on an illegal alien who had been charged with child rape last week, or the case where a State Lawmaker met an illegal immigrant by “accident”. The illegal immigrant, traveling at 60 mph, crashed into State Representative Mike Moran’s card.

What is a bit mind-boggling, is that Rhode Island (right next door to Boston), lost a battle in the Statehouse to implement a law similar to Arizona, however, they have a backup – an Executive Order, signed by Rhode Islands’ Governor, is someone more restrictive than has received little to no recognition for its mandates ordering immigration checks on all new state employees, as well as ordering RI State Politic to assist federal immigration officials.

One would hazard to guess that more Bay State and Rhode Island Residents support Jan Brewer than Deval Patrick on this issue.
Where to donate to Arizona’s defense fund against seven (7) suits filed (including one by the Nation of Mexico joined to the Federal Governments Suit (what Constitution?!) and to be heard by Clinton Appointee, Susan Bolton?

Go to: Keep AZ Safe.com.

Rasmussen – Massachusetts Ramps Up Independence – Trouble for Patrick as well as Congressional Incumbents

Pollsters - Massachsuetts 2010 and 2012? image: blog optimism for America

A new poll released by Rasmussen on March 8th, reveals that the Commonwealth has no longer is blindly following a liberal bent; rather, the independent streak appears to be growing stronger. In this particular poll the crosstabs are revealing - the Gubernatorial Election is tight, with Patrick leading with 35%, GOP Frontrunner, Charlie Baker with 32% and Democrat turned Independent Cahill down to 19% - the kicker: 14% of those polled are currently undecided. The undecided’s, incidentally, are often aligned with name recognition and or a favorable rating, which in Baker’s case, a startling 28% of those polled have no opinion (meaning they have not heard of or have sufficient knowledge of Charlie Baker). In a match-up with Patrick, only 13% view him very favorably, while Cahill comes in at 10% and Baker at 17%. The Governors current overall approval (includes strongly and somewhat approves) is at 33%. With independent candidates coming out strong “out-of-the-gate” and normally finishing in the 6 percentile, the 3 point gap that Separate Baker and Patrick should close quickly over the summer and into the fall, as long as Baker’s staff makes sure that his name becomes “household” across the Commonwealth. That 28% could conceivably push Baker ahead of Patrick in double digits.

Political campaigns are all about branding – 1 the brand of the Candidate and, fortunately for Baker, the brand of the Political Party in general. If Baker introduces himself to the Commonwealth, remains upbeat in any advertising, he will minimize the threat from Cahill, and Patrick will be, as they say, history.

The Kennedy state no more – 58% of those polled feel that the Kennedy dynasty is over, and the health care issue is still a driving force in the Bay State, with 31% strongly approving and 40% strongly opposing, on this issue Bay Stater’s know where they stand, only 2% were “unsure” (refused). When adding in those on the “somewhat fence”, the support Obama’s Health Care plan jumps to 46% and those that oppose to 52%. What one must keep in mind – this is Massachusetts. The Presidents Handling of Health Care Reform: 19% believe he’s done an excellent job, while 44% believe he has done poorly. That is stunning. Additionally, Massachusetts voters believe that the Insurance Companies would do a better job that the Federal Government, 50% to 42%.

Obama’s overall approval rating in the Commonwealth (includes the somewhats), is at 44%! With a disapproval rating of 46%, which tells us that Massachusetts has joined the rest of the nation (Gallop latest Obama approval: 46%).

All that aside, those who are considering a Congressional run, or are now invested in a run against a current Congressional representative, get a serious boost – 38% of those polled feel that the current representative in Congress deserves to be reelected – 38% feel that they do not. This particular question has those undecided’s in-line with Baker’s numbers: 24% are unsure. (Branding). When asked if the nation would be better off if the incumbent were to be defeated – 53% of Bay Stater’s believe that the entire Massachusetts Democrat Controlled congressional legislation should be sent packing, while 25% support keeping them in office, and 22% remain sitting on the fence. In reviewing the data on both previous poll questions, the percentage of those sitting on the fence is a 2 point difference. This means that those Republicans or Independents running in each district better start knocking on doors and introducing themselves; to everyone in the district. Instead of holding barbeque's and cocktail parties, it would behoove those that want a clear shot at making history, to get in the trenches and get to know their future constituents.

Almost every single congressional district in Massachusetts is in play, and two in particular, the 2nd Hampden and the 4th, are going to be the districts to watch. Those candidates that have an independent streak, will perform the best in these two districts, right now, that’s Jay Fleitman in the Hampden 2nd, and Earl Sholley in the 4th (excellent review here: at Massachusetts Election 2010.

In conclusion, Massachusetts which has always been dubbed “Safe Democrat” and the “Bluest State” is changing. That change comes from the growing number of independents, or registered unenrolleds, who will vote for the person, not the party – it does not matter that Democrats currently outnumber Republican’s, it matters which candidate (or incumbent) is able to convince the majority of voters that they deserve the nod. In 2010, Massachusetts, against all odds (referring to the media’s take) may indeed shock the nation once again.

Getting the Massachusetts Facts Straight – Washington Post profiles Charlie Baker’s Run for Govenor

Charle Baker, Repubican Candidate for Govenor, Massachusetts - images masstech.org

In a recentWashington Post Article, written by Chris Cillizza and entitled “Charlie Baker: Scott Brown, part deux?”, the author uses the erroneous claim that the Massachusetts Electorate is heavily Democrat. Further, he cites the Massachusetts Secretary of State’s website as follows:

The central challenge for Baker is how to win a race -- not a special election -- in a state that still heavily favors Democrats. (At the end of 2008 -- the latest information available at the state's election division -- there were 4.2 million registered Democrats, 2.1 million "unenrolled" or independents and just 1.6 million Republicans.)

The actual statistics available here show that Massachusetts is a heavily “independent” or unenrolled state, with 1.5 million registered Democrats, 500,000 registered Republicans and 2.1 million registered “unenrolled”.
Erroneously quoting the statistics of the Massachusetts electorate is nothing new, and is the reason why analysis of races within the state are often dubbed as “Safe Democrat”, with few if any pollsters even glancing at Massachusetts.
Additionally, Scott Brown’s win, in this article is touted as being “one in a lifetime”, the author citing sources as “political operatives”. The piece appears to be designed to at once compare Scott Brown to Charlie Baker (the rising star in the GOP factor), and to outline why it will be most problematic for Baker to succeed in the Gubernatorial election.

Scott Brown is no Charlie Baker and Charlie Baker is no Scott Brown. It is that simple. What the two men have in common is that they are both running as Republican’s in what was previously considered a Blue State (that is within the Commonwealth, on the outside looking in it is still considered “Safe Democrat”).

Baker is his own man and has his own style, one which is at once confident and at the same time approachable. Further, he does not, as far as anyone is aware, drives a pickup truck. Baker does, however, know a thing or two about running a large corporation, specifically one that involves health care. Baker was responsible for turning that organization around, and given the fact that the Commonwealth’s government is nothing more than a large corporate body (granted dysfunctional from this perspective), it would appear that Baker’s background makes him most suited for the position, specifically when compared to the Democrat-turned Independent Tim Cahill (part of the Patrick ‘Administration) and the current Governor.

No article on any Massachustts race would be complete unless the author brought up something salacious or ridiculous about any Republican candidate. The Big Dig, in this wise concerning how far Callizza researched this article – he went straight to the Boston Globe, citing an article written by Joan Vennochi(not known for being particularly unbiased), going into a twelve year old connection to the Weld and Celluci administrations. The problem for those who would prefer to see Duval Patrick keep his seat (those are journalists, pundits, and DNC operatives within and outside the Commonwealth), is timing. Twelve years is a long time in voters’ minds, and regardless of Party, when comparing candidates, and there is a difference between say, a decision made in office or a serious problem such as a conviction for armed robbery or prostitution, - the people here, on the ground, get it. Another factor not being considered is the fact that the Democrat Brand is damaged. The evidence is everywhere, but no more so than in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts where almost every Congressional District is also in play and the Incumbents (all Democrats) are faced with the unusual burden of having to actually campaign against Republican(s), some incumbents doing so for the first time in decades and the outcome is looking grim. Therefore, Charlie Baker, who is, for all intents and purposes, squeaky clean (comparatively), also has the ability and background to run the Commonwealth. Additionally, Baker may find something past Republican Governors did not: a house that includes a few more Republican’s than in past years.

Finally, the war chest of candidates in the article bears some scrutiny. Although it is reasoned that the individual with the Cash wins, it is not always the case – one needs enough, obviously, to run the ads, and feed the ground troops who are knocking on doors, and making those calls, but one has to be realistic. It is not so much the money, but the individual who will win the race and the key will be the Brand and how well that brand, in Massachusetts, resonates with the Unenrolled. In the case of the Governor’s race, Baker, who also faces a challenger in a primary, is, from this perspective, better placed to best either Cahill or the current Occupant of the Governor’s office. It is numbers and those numbers are based on the make-up of the Commonwealth’s voters. Should one be inclined to make an early prediction, and why not: Patrick: 35% (based on Democrat Enrollment), Cahill, 7% (most independents end up in that bracket historically), and Baker takes the rest.

Massachusetts Governor, Deval Patrick’s New Campaign Slogan - Yes! We Need More Taxes!

Deval Patrick, Campaigns on More Taxes! - Photo Boston Herald

Anyone living in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has noticed that they have been paying a lot more for simple things, including necessities, since the June round of taxes proposed by Governor Deval Patrick and passed by the Massachusetts Legislature went into effect. From cell phone bills, cable and satellite TV bills, to the increase in the bottom line of any given grocery receipt, a few dollars here, a few dollars there, adds up - especially in an economy where many find themselves choosing between eating and paying the rent. There are taxes and fees aplenty in the Commonwealth – all designed to boost a budget deficit that continues to outpace the income the Commonwealth derives from those individual working taxpayers and businesses that remain in the state.

In an election year, one finds U.S. representatives, and the Govenor, filling our mailboxes with brochures and flyer's touting constituent services (more on this subject at a later date). However, what one does not expect to see is the Incumbent Governor of the State known as “Taxachusetts” proposing yet another round of Taxes! From candy and soda (those are bad to you excuse) to Tobacco products that did not fall under a cigarette tax, such as cigars and pipe tobacco, (same excuse) to an increase in prescription drug fees for Medicaid recipients, a bottle tax on water and juice, and a surcharge on auto insurance – the later intended to drive those already struggling under the yoke of taxes, those underemployed, unemployed, and the elderly, to the very brink of destitution. Is he nuts?

Of course, the Governor, who is aware that his approval rating has tanked in recent months, (A recent Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll (Known to be generous to a certain political party – see Coakley plus 15 in the Brown/Coakley race while other pollsters had Brown up anywhere from 5 to 12 points) gave Patrick a 44% approval rating.) but believing in the power of the catchy and recycled slogan: “Yes, we can” - he decided that now is the time to raise taxes, again.

Why?

Enter the Trojan Horse.

The Governor faces a three way contest in November: Tim Cahill, Life-long Democrat conveniently turned Independent, and either the team of Republican Charlie Baker and Richard Tisie, or Republican/Independent Christy Mihos. With recent events in the Commonwealth clearly indicating that those who tax and spend – fail and retire - one has to ask why Deval Patrick continues on his path of potential taxing political suicide. Maybe he’s not as obtuse as one would believe.

The Cahill Factor: Tim Cahill, a life-long Democrat, began his career as a City Councilor, moving to the position of Country Treasurer and lastly elected State Treasurer in 2002. Cahill, who oversees the State Lottery, has had his share of notoriety. The Boston Globe report from December of 2009, talks about Cahill’s legal fees and use of “high profile, elite lawyers at the taxpayers’ expense. Apparently, when Deval Patrick began to tank in the polls, Cahill got “religion”. As of now Should Cahill receive more than 6%of the vote usually donated by the good citizens of the Commonwealth to the “Independent” running, he will insure that Deval Patrick is reelected. Sounds like a plan.

In reality, Tim Cahill may be sincere, but timing, as they say, is everything. With a disenchanted and depressed electorate, the candidates running for the governor’s office will be put under a proverbial microscope by the people of the Commonwealth – In real election terms, it is far too early to count anyone in or out, however, as the race shapes up during the summer, the handwriting should be on the walls (or in the polls).

Prediction: Deval Patrick takes the die hard progressives (26% of the 35% Democrats enrolled): Tim Cahill takes the balance of the Democrats who truly want a moderate, and 10% of the independents who believe he's truly found religion (that 19% and that is generous.) Looking more Baker/Tisie by the minute, take the balance. (12% Republican vote and the remaining 41% of the independent vote).

Boston Globe Campaigns Against Christie Mihos, Candidate for Govenor – Article on Mihos Tax Issue Refuted by Other Journalist - Analysis

The BostonGlobe ran an article entitled “Mihos Runs Short on Tax Lien Explanation”, yesterday. In reading the article, written by Globe Staffer, Michele Richinick, one gets the distinct impression that this is more of an editorialized report than an actual “news article”. The gist of the article is that Globe Reporters investigating Mihos financials discovered a tax lien on his home on the Cape, and that Mihos had owed additional monies in fees for late payment. In the same article, however, paragraph three reads:

“Mihos refused to quantify the gain or the amount of the tax. He produced a letter of apology from the IRS, stating that the lien was placed in error shortly after the delinquent taxes had been paid.”

Yet the Globe is not “satisfied” with the “explanation” given by Mihos regarding the reason the lien was filed in the first place.
The first note under the headline reads: "Cape Cod Home Latest IRS Target", referring to a transaction Mihos made in another State, not subject to Massachusetts Taxes, but which the State’s D.O.R. aggressively pursed in order to collect the tax and fines. Incidentally this incident occurred during the 2006 campaign.

A follow-up article by 40 year veteran Journalist Walter Brook, appeared on a local Cape Cod News Website :

“Although Christy Mihos owes no taxes whatsoever, the state's largest circulation daily newspaper implied otherwise today in a story which confounded this writer and many others, including the candidate who lives in Yarmouth.
In fact, Mihos is probably the state's only taxpayer who has received a letter of apology from the IRS, a fact known to the writers of the Globe article.
As a journalist for half a century in this state, I have never before seen such a concerted effort by the "old media" to write-off a candidate this early in the campaign, a candidate who their own polls show ahead of his competitor.
As a journalist for half a century in this state, I have never before seen such a concerted effort by the "old media" to write-off a candidate this early in the campaign, a candidate who their own polls show ahead of his competitor.”

Mr. Brooks is referring to Mr. Mihos Republican challenger, Charles Baker, as the which the Globe defends, however, when one looks at the polls, it is clear that the Candidate who has the most to fear from Mihos’ gubernatorial race, is the incumbent Governor, Duval Patrick. In the last four polls, two by Suffolk University and two by Rasmussen, Mihos handily bests Patrick – while Baker does not fare as well. Therefore, one can deduce that, given the Globe “discovered” Mihos’ tax problems in two consecutive election cycles, the real target is the leading Republican candidate.

It is precisely this type of shoddy, “insinuating”, journalism from the Globe and like publications that reminds one of headlines coming from less “elite” sources, such as the National Enquirer. One has to take the alleged “infighting” from the G.O.P., indicated by Mr. Brook in his article, with a grain of salt. Mr. Brook is concerned that the Globe is pushing Baker as a candidate for the Mass. GOP. Given the history of the paper’s editorial bent, this is most unlikely. The facts are simple, the Mass. G.O.P., has two candidates running for Governor, and most likely would prefer one over the other, (given the same occurs with the State’s Democratic Committee) and therefore, as with any healthy primary challenge, one expects there to be supporters from the top of an organization on down, for one candidate or another . That said, simple math (polls and financials) and the make-up of the electorate, dictate that at the end of the day, Mihos will be the gubernatorial candidate, despite the Globes writers best efforts.

Mihos, a populist candidate will face off in a primary that includes the 12% republican electorate as well as any independent (unenrolled) that chose to vote in that primary against Deval Patrick. (Unenrolled's may vote in Massachusetts Primaries, they merely choose either a Republican or Democrat Ballot)The Commonwealth boasts an unusually high percentage of “unenrolleds” – over 50% of the electorate – giving that “non-party” the ability to elect the next Governor, Senator, U.S. Congressional Rep., and so on. Therefore, the hoopla over Party politics in the commonwealth is moot – the voter that each candidate needs to reach is the unenrolled. Given that this year polling indicates that Mihos, as a populist does best with both Republicans and Unenrolleds, any Patrick supporters will do their best to paint the leading candidate as less than perfect. The third party candidate, Tim Cahill, Democrat turned independent, fares well in polling, garnering a 27% (approximate) approval rating – a rating that is similar to the one enjoyed by Christie in his 2006 Independent bid for Governor. The end result, however, is the independent candidate received less than 10% of the overall vote. Therefore, Cahill’s entry into the race is moot, given the historical voting and polling patterns of the Commonwealth. Patrick’ overall approval rating is in the high 20’s and unless there is divine intervention, there will be little hope of a second term. Therefore, one can anticipate that the Globe’s articles will become more aggressive and desperate as the race continues.

Massachusetts Governor’s Race 2010 Poll - Patrick: 29% Believe He Should Be Re-Elected – Mihos Beats Baker in Republican Primary (Again) – Analysis

Mihos-Patrick Matchup likely 2010 according to Recent Polls

A newly releasedpoll (marginal’s here) by Suffolk University is accompanied by the headline: “Patrick Leads Opponents Despite Negative Ratings”, however, the conclusion is a bit premature given the early nature of the race (primary is not set until Tuesday, September 14th, 2010), and the overall disapproval of the Governor’s job performance to date in that same poll.

In reviewing the marginals, the University, once again, polls 8% on campus, with the balance of the geographic areas of Massachusetts being either over represented or underrepresented (county by county census data) The sample of registered voters, once again, under represents the “unenrolled” – an ever growing portion of the electorate – currently approximately at 51% (based on Massachusetts Secretary of State Voter Registration as of 2008). Therefore, the poll, for all intents and purposes, is more entertainment at this juncture.

The Govenor, who only 29% of those polled believe should retain his seat, appears to have unusually high favorability ratings – 42% favorable/45% unfavorable and 11% undecided (1% never heard of him). Tim Cahill, Democrat turned Independent, 35% favorable, 12% unfavorable, 25% Undecided, 18% never heard of him. Republican, Charlie Baker, and fares poorly overall, 45% never heard of Baker, of those who have, 15% favorable, 11% unfavorable and 30% are undecided. The one populist candidate, running as a Republican, is Christy Mihos, 27% favorable, 23% unfavorable, 29% undecided, and 22% of those polled never heard of him.

Given this scenario and the fact that independents vote in the Massachusetts Primary (given enough interest in a given race, and one must understand that there is a great interest in the race), even among non-political junkies: Mihos would trounce Baker in the primary, leaving a three way race between Cahill, Mihos and the Incumbent, Patrick. Historically, the independent candidate does not fare well in Massachusetts, Mihos understands this quite well, running in 2006 in a three way match-up between Patrick and Kerry Healy, Mihos took 3% of the vote – Healy, weakened by the Republican brand, negative campaign ads, and lack of grassroots support, lost by over 21% To those in the state that blame Mihos for Healy’s loss, a basic math review may be in order.

Therefore, a race between Mihos and Patrick is likely – with Patrick most definitely (according to this poll) taking a loss. This is based on the pivotal question and result: Does Patrick deserve to be re-elected: a measly 29% of those polled (included 8% of university students/professors) believe that he does.

One has to understand that some polls are designed and commissioned in order to achieve results, which may be given to the press, which then broadcasts the “approved results”; never bothering to investigate the marginal’s where the real story lays. One of the most amusing aspects of this poll is a question: “Do you favor the Commonwealth of Massachusetts adding a recall vote where
citizens could remove an elected official when he or she is underperforming?” – the results: 54% yes, 38% no (the percentage of Democrats polled), with only 8% undecided on this issue. If that were, in fact, available to the state’s electorate, one would bet the house that many of those sitting on Beacon Hill would find themselves out on the street.

However, caution is in order, as again, it is still early in the season, with a primary almost a year away – but one can predict, given previous polls by Suffolk (marginals here) that the scenario of a Patrick /Mihos matchup would result.