Clinton Announces 2016 Candidacy – GOP to add Rubio to the Roster this week

Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy via social media this weekend in what the Washington Post dubbed: “A long awaited announcement”. Apparently, Clinton is going to strike a populist tone.

If there was a do-over and 2008 was the year, that would have been the time to forward Clinton as the candidate of choice (she was the popular candidate of choice, she was not the candidate of choice for the Super Delegates), unfortunately that did not happen. At that time, there was as choice between Clinton, McCain and Obama, it was a no-brainer for the women of America, both Independents, Democrats and yes, some Republicans’. Unfortunately that was not to be, we can’t turn back the clock, and despite best and worst intentions of the media – it may not be the best time for Clinton in 2016. Martin O’Malley is running as well, and he strikes a younger more attractive tone vis a vis the aura of Dynasty that hangs about Clintons Neck.

On the GOP side, polling suggests according to Bloomberg, that Rand Paul and Jeb Bush may have problems in the primary, although, Bush more than Paul, while other conservatives such as Ted Cruz will fare better. (Bloomberg). One might suggest that a robust primary, sans the attack ads at Paul (first) and second whoever does not fit the Beltway image of what is right for the nation, is what does the primary a disservice. Let the duke it out in the debates and the same should hold for the Democrats. Several news sources site that Rubio will announce this week – adding to a decidedly “youthful” cadre of candidates.

A note on those dark and menacing political ads – those should be pulled – one by Ron Paul, a candidate which this blogger finds more than worthy of support, is exactly the type of negative ad, dark, foreboding, that turns back on the candidate. Having watched so many good politicians go down in flames due to bad ads, the anti-Hillary ad is just that. Highlighting differences is fine in this opinion, helping the competition is not. Humble opinion notwithstanding, this general election primary is shaping up to be one of the most interesting - a lot of smart people are running, and there is nothing that the country needs more than a fresh face with a brain.

2016 – GOP - Cruz In First – Rand Paul On Deck, DNC – O’Malley Most Likely, watch Julian Castro

The 2016 Presidential Sweepstakes begins today with the announcement that Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), will be running for the Republican Nomination. Cruz, who made the announcement via Twitter, will be speaking at Liberty University today, an evangelical Christian college. (Mass Live).

Rand Paul (R-KY) is expected to announce his primary bid on April 7th, with with an “ambitious five state tour”according to the Washington Times.

On the DNC side, the likeliest first to announce will be the former Governor of Maryland Martin O’Malley, who, according to the New York Post, is a favorite if Hillary Clinton does not run (NY Post)

The likelihood of Clinton running successfully, if at all, is high. Going by DNC history, the more likely candidate to emerge would be the former Mayor of San Antonio who is currently being evasive about a VP roll in a Clinton campaign. (National Mortgage Professional.com).

O’Malley who spent both time and money is Iowa in 2014, and is well received, has yet to nail down the support. Apparently, those who would be pivotal are waiting for someone else, (Washington Post) could it be Castro?

In any event, and somewhat early to tell with few exceptions (Cruz, O’Malley, Paul), it will be a politically diverse slate of candidates, with perhaps the exception of the DNC, who has the Progressive’s front and center (thus less support Clinton). Given the recent thrashing that the standard politicians took in 2014, one might speculate that the candidate that is less “political party” would go the distance – to the White House. Cruz, in comments from any news article, is seen as a radical Tea Party, Canadian born (Constitutionally, that does not matter), super intelligent, but lacking experience, candidate. The fact that Cruz holds his own regardless of which side of the aisle he is taking to task makes him extremely interesting. Additionally, if he is acceptable to the Evangelical right, then, he will be the nominee and with the twenty million who sat out the last General election due to an inability to vote for a Mormon, he can secure the Presidency. Unless, of course, they are able to support multiple candidates, should the candidate social issues align with their own, on a personal level.

The top of the GOP field picks: Walker, Cruz, Paul, Perry. Top of the DNC field picks: O’Malley, possibly Castro, and that rascal from Vermont, Bernie Sanders. With O’Malley in the game, there is little incentive for Elizabeth Warren to step forward. If Warren is aware that Castro is going to jump in, then that would be a reason she is not doing the same. Clinton is being maligned from all sides – therefore, it is very unlikely that a credible female candidate will emerge in 2016 with enough stamina to break the glass ceiling.

Hilary Clinton Trump’s GOP Field in Bloomberg Politics Poll – Analysis

Bloomberg Politics commissioned a poll on 2016 Presidential match-up’s between multiple GOP contenders, the Vice President, Joe Biden and former Democrat Presidential Candidate and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In the Poll, Clinton leads all potential GOP candidates by several points, and the strongest contender appears to be Joe Biden.(Bloomberg) The Pollster, Selzer & Co out of Des Moine Iowa conducted the poll based on 1001 individuals 18 years of age or older (poll PDF here), however gives no clue as to the demographic and political affiliation makeup of those polled, of those polled, 753 are likely voters. When looking at the grouping for favorability we find Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Mitt Romney, Ted Cruz, and Joe Biden as choices. Polling strongest behind Clinton is Biden, followed by Romney, Christie, Rand Paul and Jeb Bush (tied), and then Ted Cruz. Of course, one must factor in that key element – Don’t know enough to form a decision, which those who score highest as unknown are: Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, those who score highest are Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and then Mitt Romney. Further in the matchup with Clinton against the aforementioned GOP candidates only, those candidates group tightly, with Mitt Romney leading the field, and Jeb Bush and Rand Paul, tied for second. (Business week)

There are several questions regarding the poll, or more to the point, popularity and familiarity poll so early in the game with not one candidate announced that it is truly a non poll. Additionally, when Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden score highest in any group, one must trust that there is a larger percentage of Democrats and or Democrat leaning independents participating, than say GOP or GOP leaning independents.

What does surprise is the strength of Rand Paul in this non-poll, as he ties with Jeb Bush, in all instances, while having less name recognition with the sample. Not included are more likely to run Rick Perry and soon to be unemployed Governor of Maryland, O’Malley, nor the heavyweight progressive, Senator Elizabeth Warren. If one is playing fantasy politics one should have a full team.

Additionally, inserting “Hope the run’s”, rather than those who may have indicated they might run, is also a non-starter. (That would, of course, remove both Mitt Romney and Elizabeth Warren, who one suspects the later would have done screamingly well in this poll. Leading one to believe that this poll was produced by a big fan of Hillary Clinton, or to shore up the point that Hillary is a real threat to the GOP field (send your $$ now!).

Analysis: nothing to see here, move along folks.

The Clinton – Obama Transition – Spitting Into the Winds of Hate and Division

The Washington Post has an interesting article regarding the transition of power from President Obama to Hillary Clinton entitled: “The tricky Obama-Clinton handoff begins”. The gist in a nutshell: How Hillary Clinton can assume power from Obama and maintain the same policies as he has in place now, while driving a wedge between the American Public and the newly minted Republican Congress, and at the same time keeping a massive distance between herself and the President. (Washington Post)

Perhaps more aggravating than any concept of a dynasty of political elite assuming they are going to just take the power, pre-election, are the comments made within the article by those in “power” in the DNC.

“President Obama’s legacy is now entirely dependent on the election of a Democratic successor as president who will protect and extend it, not demolish it,” said David Brock, a Clinton ally and chairman of the pro-Democratic super PAC American Bridge. “Should she run, they both now have a common enemy in a Republican Congress that will define politics through 2016.”

(Washington Post)

Common enemy – here we go again, years of backbiting and accusations of us vs. them in a never ending quagmire that is Washington DC and those that believe they “own” the people.

Frankly, whether it be a dynastic figure from the Republicans (think Bush 1, Bush II, the Return of Bush), or a dinosaur from the Democrats, those types of elitists no longer should hold sway with the general public. Those would the people who have hired them.

Should there be political disagreements with sound discourse? Absolutely, but slogans and premeditated malaise is not going to be a welcome respite for the citizens- rather, it was this type of partisan division and the sense of entitlement and ownership among the political elite, that led to more individuals staying home due to sheer depressions, and those voting, having had enough.

They never learn.

Favorite part of this entire article is the point made that no matter who follows Obama as the next Democrat President, rest assured, they will be in lockstep with his policies.

Political Party annihilation for Dummies – should be a new “how to” for those who feel they are above it all.

So Long Harry and Thanks for All the Fish! The President’s Legacy – Will He or Won’t He Work with the GOP once freed of Reid?

The title is in reference to Douglas Adam’s 5 part trilogy beginning with A Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy and ending with “So Long and Thanks’ for All the Fish”. Basically if one has any familiarity with this irreverent take on life and its karma – then Harry Reid is about to become of those characters, the villain who is given his comeuppance, as the party faithful flee.

Tomorrow will be a day of historic proportions some pundits suggest, however, it may also be the tipping point in a mid-term where the population, in general, rejects, not only the Administration’s policies, but the progressives as a whole. Time of course, will tell, however, a recent Suffolk poll on the Massachusetts Governor’s race is telling. The Marginals (here) are chock full of surprises: In this poll, Baker leads Coakely for the Governor’s office by 4 points, and the President’s approval in MA remains underwater at 44%, Hillary Clinton’s visit to help out Martha Coakley had a net zero effect, with 61.4% suggesting it made no difference at all and finally, 28% watched Fox News more than any other network. The poll was based on Massachusetts political enrollment, 51% Unenrolled, 11% GOP, and 38% Democrat (approximately) – which does not bode well across the board for Progressives. The Ballot questions are also of interest, most favor keeping the casino and reject including bottled water, etc. in the states bottle return program.(Boston Herald)

North to New Hampshire, is the Scott Brown Race against Jean Shaheen, which is, at present a tie, Iowa was a tie, until a Des Moines Register Final poll showed no contest at all, with Earnst up by 7 points, and the Democrat Candidate suggesting she looks like Taylor Swift (Politico)

It is indeed a world gone somewhat wild. Given that the Republicans are set to take upwards to 10 seats (as some models show Iowa as a toss-up), and additional congressional seats, the President will be in a position to get things accomplished, should he be of that mind. With Reid gone from the equations (possibly a loud and obnoxious voice in the Senate to be sure, but no longer hampering votes and legislation from seeing the light of day, the President will have more opportunity to pass or veto as he sees’ fit.

Should the President reject overtures of bi-partisanship from the new Congress, then they have a loud enough group going into 2014 to continue to “Bushwhack” him, and the White House will also fall to the GOP – which, given history, is more than likely to happen even if the President was granted sainthood.

That said, a legacy is at stake, and rather going down in history as the rival to Jimmy Carter, he does have the opportunity to come out of this looking a lot more like Bill Clinton. The question remains, will he use the next two years to thwart the congress by any means (including overreach of the Constitution), or will he “play ball” and give and get in the dance of legislation?

The National GOP on Collision Course for 2016 – The Return of the “Safe” Candidate

Here we go again, the National GOP is pushing such notables as Chris Christie, the Governor of New Jersey (Moderate-Left), and former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush, of the Bush dynasty, as candidates for the 2016 GOP Presidential Contest. Apparently, Mitt Romney finally got it across that he was not interested in running a third time (given the state of the nation, he’s a smart man.)

So what about those that have a fairly well established ground game? Kentucky Senator, Rand Paul, perhaps the most viable candidate the GOP has had since Ronald Reagan (they despised him as well), is making inroads across the nation in demographics previously “belonging” to Democrats, doing everything right.

Therefore the flunkies (i.e. moderate party cow-tow’s) are starting to surface. Moderate Illinois Adam Kinzinger has suggested that Paul would be dangerous to the GOP “given his cuts to the military budget”. He much prefers the likes of Bush, Christie and Ryan. That said, since the budget comes from the House and not the Senate, it is a stretch of the imagination that the Senator would have much impact on the budget – unless he actually won the nomination and then the general election. It’s fear mongering to the base. (Daily Caller)

Of course, the weekend would not be complete without the emergence of yet another Bush presidential run accordoing to the Miami Herald, George P Bush, son of one Jeb Bush suggests his father is ready to run in 2016.(Miami Herald) in the nick of time to save the GOP from the likes of say, a Rand Paul, and lose the General election in spades – once again.

It would be one thing to the casual observer or a devout Republican, if the party let chips fall where they might – oh, let anyone who has the courage to run in the primary do so unhindered by the specter of the national GOP suggesting they should be immediately replaced by their preferred candidate, and then should that individual not make the primary cut, so be it. That would be a fair contest.

In the age of a nuclear Democrat Party, as well as a National GOP is it no wonder individuals are opting out of the parties, and choosing “no affiliation”? Continuing to represent the Progressive ideals of elitism and proving the same by continuing to push forward candidate’s who are in that imagined upper class (Clinton, Bush, Romney), will lead more quickly to the emergence of a third party – the non-party.

Perhaps having no candidate but making choices based on whoever the main parties are pushing. It is what it is, but it does not mean the citizens have to appreciate a party that puts itself above the founder’s intent. Put either one of the GOP picks up against a Democrat Pick, and the White House is lost to the GOP once again.

2014 MA Primary - NH Primary – Results - As anticipated with a few interesting exceptions – 2016 starting to Loom Larger

The last state primaries for 2014 were held yesterday, with elections to follow this November. In Massachusetts the results were somewhat as expected: WWLP, Springfield reports that Baker won the Republican Governors race handily, while on the Democrat side, Martha Coakley bested Steve Grossman by 5 points, while the balance of the vote tallies were mostly Democrats, with entrenched Democrat John Tierney losing to Seth Moulton.(WWLP). What was most intriguing in the MA primary may have been the manner in which unenrolled or independent voters cast ballots – most often against, rather than for a particular candidate – be it Republican or Democrat. Listening to the New England radio’s, Howie Carr on the drive home, one was treated to a barrage of callers suggesting who they were targeting – which may explain why Coakley only pulled a 5 point margin, while Baker was over 70% on the GOP side (along with the fact that Baker’s competition was less well known, and slightly fringe). Suffice it to say, that on the Governor’s race, one might be tempted to suggest that the next Governor would be Baker.

In New Hampshire, Scott Brown won the GOP contest handily and will go on to face Jean Sheheen, the Democrat Incumbant, while Marilinda Garcia, won the 2nd district by a wide margin.(WMUR)

The New Hampshire races may be more interesting in the wealth of ammunition that the GOP has against the incumbents, especially the Health Care issue in that state, more than most, is dire. With one insurance carrier, and over a thousand doctors, and fewer hospitals participating, New Hampshire will be voting with its pocketbook. Scott Brown looks likely to take this Live Free or Die State should he get some help from his former ultra conservative friends. Marilinda Garcia, with a little help from Ted Cruz, looks likely to upset as well. Cruz’s stock rose yesterday in New Hampshire, for those looking ahead to 2016.

Speaking of which: On Friday Rand Paul will be the host of the NH GOP Unity Breakfast (Politico), where he currently leads in in polling. While Hillary Clinton < a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/08/18/hillary-clinton-to-return-to-iowa-for-harkins-steak-fry/">will be heading for Iowa. Clinton has suggested that she will make a decision after the first of the year(Coast1009.com), while Rand Paul is suggesting early spring ((Brietbart News) Now that would be a divine match-up!

2016 Looking forward - GOP and DNC options

2016 Looking forward - GOP and DNC options

The New York Times article: “Taking Account of the Republican Presidential Contenders”, reminds that fortunes wax and wane years in advance of the general election. They cite Rand Paul and Ted Cruz as the most visible now, with Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush not so much. Also included in the “not yet announced and may never announce” category are Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Mike Pence, Jindal and Ohio’s Kasich, with maybe, cannot and this or that “scandal” attached.. Although it is early in terms of announcements, it is time for positioning, as the 2014 midterms will be over in November, putting ground troops, and donors’ in line, is critical for anyone who is seriously considering a run at the Presidency.

Paul, who is, according to the times, and most other media sources, most likely to run, has received favorable reviews, from both conservatives and those who lean left, note an editorial in the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle in which the author outlines why the U.S. needs Rand Paul as President.

First, no matter who is in the field, from either major party, must be prepared to not only bat cleanup – but to take the heat when the nation does not transform overnight – it may take years for the jobs to return, and the legislation from Congress, the Senate and the future Oval office to correct or repeal laws that are hindering the nation’s growth. Therefore, it will take a determined and dedicated individual to actually put life, fortune and family before the very fickle people of the country. Running for the Presidency take’s fortitude and dedication, regardless of whether or not one feels a candidate is appropriate or not.

Counting out candidates due to “scandals” or other baggage (as in previously ran – i.e. Mitt Romney), is a bit disingenuous. Makeovers are so complete and comprehensive in today’s 24/7 news cycle and a short-attention-span electorate that almost anything is possible. (Although improbable in some cases, again Mitt Romney, and the evangelicals – although some would be on boards, millions would not due to the man’s religion, which most feel is a “cult”; therefore, they say out the last election. (Therein is the reason that Mitt Romney did not win the office. – the politicalization of the evangelical church.)

Two that are likely and able to connect with a broader audience, regardless of parentage or slander, are Perry of Texas and Paul of Kentucky on the GOP side. Either would do. The Democrats Hillary Clinton, and Elizabeth Warren, not yet announced, Hillary is a “given” and Warren, is not. There is also the Governor of Maryland, who would be considering a run at the office. There may be others, but at the moment, these are the three most likely.

Where we are now is in the arena of speculation, and until such time as intents are made known, that is all the media, or any pundit, truly has.

Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) – 2016 – Will She or Won’t She Enter the Race

There’s an uptick in news lately regarding the first term Senator from MA, Elizabeth Warren. Most of this is centered on Warren’s popularity with the Progressive base of the Democrat party, and her potential run in 2016. Many insist she is running.

An article in the New York Post, written by Edward Klein, suggests that she has half of the now, almost irrelevant Kennedy family backing. It was in 2008 that the Kennedy’s threw Hillary Clinton under the proverbial bus, in favor of a little known one-term Senator from Illinois – Barack Obama, so this would come as no surprise to anyone in the Bay State. (NYPost) However, with Ted (The Lion) Kennedy now gone, there is no clear leader of that erstwhile clan, therefore, the weight they once pulled, is waning.

A more pragmatic approach was taken by former 4th District Congressional Representative, Barney Frank – notes the Huffington Post, Frank wants Warren to run - but believes she might not, and somehow, the article implies he would back Hillary Clinton.(Huffington Post)

What we apparently have here, is the rumor mills from the right and left, speculating on what Ms. Senator Warren, will or will not do in the coming months. Although somewhat of a mystery, as she emerges from the shadows of Massachusetts, more of her life story is unfolding and as a result, she becomes more interesting. That said, a smart and savvy woman, she is said to be declining to run in 2016 – a source that is in constant contact suggests it is nothing more than rumor.

Herein is what is at issue, without living under a rock, or being a low information voter, one knows the nation is in dire straits – and no matter who takes the helm in 2016 – will be either blamed or blamed when the ship of state does not immediately right itself. (See Reagan’s first term after Carter for reference). Therefore, smart money suggests that both women may sit this one out, in favor of letting an obscure MD governor, or even a Vice President take the loss to any GOP candidate – given the odds of the incoming President being one-term should hypothetically, and either muddying the waters more, or not succeeding quickly enough. They may count on the fickle voters to aid this along with a rapid media. Both women can afford to wait an additional 4 years, in order to put distance between themselves and the nightmare that is DC now. It would surprise this blogger if either of them made any 2016 announcements other than “Next Time!” regarding the 2016 general election. It would be, in this feminist’s point of view, better to win the war than the battle.

2016 Polling – What It Implies – Paul, Clinton and the Rest of the Pack - Analysis

The Los Angeles Times article on the latest 2016 polling is somewhat interesting in that the headline suggests that Clinton is sweeping a tightly packed field of Republicans. Once one gets into the breakdown of the latest polling, it is Biden, not the Republican’s Clinton leads in the first of the nation’s primary/caucus states. “Bunched are leader Rand Paul, and Jeb Bush in Iowa, with Christie behind in New Hampshire. Given that no one has announced an intent to run (besides Rand Paul, this is, of course, all hypothetical), it is interesting that Clintons is in a statistical tie with Republicans in both states! (Los Angeles Times)

The Washington Post Weighs in on Rand Paul in the same polling where they find he is in an excellent position at this point – however, it has been eons since any Republican took both Iowa and New Hampshire – basically sealing the nomination – Paul’s in line for that given the current field and current conditions.(Washington Post)

What to take away from all of this is the following: regardless of the outcome of any Democrat Primary at this point, the Republican’s are in good stead as of today to take back the White House. Considering that the pollsters name Hillary Clinton as the Democrat frontrunner, it appears that the former Secretary of State would rather spend her cash elsewhere than with an “iffy” at best run at the Presidency. Additionally, one sees a Maryland Governor who is shaping up nicely as a potential candidate as well. Elizabeth Warren, who is being touted as the next coming of Barack Obama, may not, after all run, according to sources. Who could blame either woman, who are smarter than most politicians, if both bowed out at this point due to two scenarios: one they may outright lose – based on current polling and two, does anyone really want to be next in line to clean up this horrific mess? That takes dedication and tons of courage and the certain knowledge that, as it may take several years to right the ship of state, the nation by year 4 may want to kick the person at the helm – to the proverbial curb.

Rand Paul pulls Away in Polling – Tops GOP Charts – Hillary Trumps Lackluster Dem Field.

Forbesreporting on the last Zogby Poll, shows Rand Paul (R-KY), pulling away from the establishment candidates (Bush, Christie) by a larger margin than previously seen. Paul received 20%, while the next 2016 potentials placed at 13%. (Forbes)

Obviously it is far too early to place any bets on who might or might not have the nomination, or even be running for the nomination until after the 2014 mid-terms, that said, what stunned Forbes in their analysis of the poll data was the fact that Paul topped the charts with less “name” recognition than the other “establishment” candidates. It is not surprising given the amount of press Paul has gendered and his popularity across multiple demographics.

On the Democrat side, Clinton buries the competition, which doesn’t say much given the lackluster bunch of Democrats that are being put forth. Name recognition may be the albatross in the next two election cycles, which leaves the door wide open at this point.

An interesting tidbit: the signers of the Declaration of Independence were a rather youthful group – given that Franklin at 73 was the oldest, Washington at 43, and Jefferson a 33 were what may be considered middle age, and the youngest was 26. Occupations also varied, from ministers, to lawyers. The document suggested that the individual was a representative of the people, rather than of the government. There was an abhorrence of all things monarchial – go figure – dynasties were considered to be less than desirable.(Archives.gov)

2016 Early Polling Continues to pit Clinton only against GOP potential candidates, Paul on Iraq – Yes his opinion can be stunning!

It appears that all pollsters continue to compare Hillary Clinton, and no other Dem candidate against the pack of 2016 potential candidates. In a situation where not one has officially announced a candidacy - but may have hinted – the best of those past races are generally put to the poll test. The pollsters have decided that must be Hillary Clinton only for the Democrats, and Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee and the 2nd place 2012 GOP candidate – Rick Santorum. In the latest round of Clinton vs. the GOP – she has lost some ground according to Forbes analysis, Clinton is still ahead but has lost ground in key demographics against both Jeb Bush and Rand Paul equally.

Here’s the conundrum – Clinton is likely to either bow out entirely in November, or be ambushed at the Democrat Convention again, by Obama-light – or the new Senator from Massachusetts – Elizabeth Warren. Warren, despite protesting too much, has opened the door in recent interviews and is playing the role of 2014 candidate support, a potential sign of things to come. There is also the Governor of Maryland, who has made no bones about a 2016 run. The latter two are most likely to enter the fray.

On the Republican side, there is no telling who may emerge yet as a frontrunner – as the fortunes and the establishment hijacks, no unlike the national Democrats, will muck things up (See John McCain, Mitt Romney). Although Paul is the most likely to capture both the GOP nomination as well as the national title, it remains to be seen what machinations, if any, the GOP will mount against the son of former Congressman Ron Paul. The establishment GOP candidate is someone who is slightly less Democrat than a Progressive.

It is one thing to hold your ground and compromise while maintaining core principles (Clinton, William Jefferson, and Reagan, Ronald), and another thing when the debates are peppered with “I agree”’s from both candidates!

However, Rand Paul (KY) would most likely have the tables turned in such a debate given his issues are conservative, and at the same time, Libertarian, which allows him some leverage and more reasoned though processes. in an op-ed in the Salem, Oregon, Statemen’s Journal, there is absolutely hope in this letter that as a “Republican” (Paul) telling it like it is re: Iraq, blaming both Bush and Obama, if he will be able to take the “heat” from other Republican’s. It is likely as, in any contest that yes, there will be those incredulous naysayers who will insist that the Iraq war was a brilliant move, yet there are those who are more pragmatic and can honestly say – bad idea. Good for Paul, and doubtful that he will back down from that stance – even hotly contested. He will be battling (a la Ronald Reagan – who was almost kicked from the party), the left and the right of the political spectrum. Although so far, the left has flung only bad photographs and some trumped up plagiarism charge. Paul appears, so far, and this early, to be the best bet of those “who might run”.

On a side note: there has been so much to discuss recently that it is difficult to pick one topic at any given time – from the disaster on the US border where daily cries for help are heard from the local media, to the VA scandal to the IRS scandal to the horrific destruction of the middle east by ISIS, to so much more than one can comprehend in an hour – one debacle after another, makes one incapable of feeling nothing but sadness for the state this nation has been brought to under this administration. One does not necessarily blame the President, simply because he is pretty much a figurehead, and is surrounded by those who are acting on their own accord – yet, surely not this much junk could get by one CEO, or one governor, or one small businessman (say an eye doctor) – which begs the question, should we, as a nation, hire another academic for the highest office in the land?

ABC Previews Campaign 2016 – the GOP – and the one Democrat – Hillary Clinton

ABC News had current 2016 previews of candidates for the GOP Presidential nomination – from Governor Rick Perry the checklist includes his pro’s and con’s – the con – in brief, he was accused of withholding funding for a state rep (who happened to be a Democrat, who was prosecuted for drunk driving. That’s the con, seriously.

The Ron Paul 2016 “checklist”, does much the same, with Paul’s biggest con – not being high father –and oh – maybe plagiarism . Seriously.

The main page of ABC News – offers Hillary Clinton as the absolute candidate - the timetable for Hillary is 8 years in the making and is a tad on the hopeful side, considering no mention of Elizabeth Warren.

In the pro’s and con’s of having someone fresh, interesting and of course, with a fairly clean slate (see con’s under GOP), then either Perry or Paul would suffice. What is interesting is the few that offer Clinton may not run at all, and the rise of “buzz” regarding Elizabeth Warren.

The only way that the GOP can lose both the Senate and the White House in the next two elections would be to follow the status quo and the “good old boy” network that has haunted the last two Presidential campaigns. It’s going to get interesting, once someone or two actually announce, and that will be in late 2014 early 2015.

Elizabeth Warren – 2016 – Stock Rising

The question has been asked and answered of the Junior Senator from Massachusetts, Democrat Elizabeth Warren – “Will you run for President in 2016?” All prior answers were no – except, the latest interview with the Huffington Post here, where she implies that there may be a run in her future. (Huffington Post)

As Hillary Clinton, the foregone conclusion as the front runner, begins to incur hostile media coverage (See: See CNN: “Hillary Clinton Downplays Controversy Around Bergdahls Release”), one begins to wonder if Clinton, will take the bait and run, knowing the probability that the progressive wing of the Democrat Party will likely push a Warren to the forefront, similar to what had occurred in 2008 (see PUMA).

Clinton on the one hand, has the experience in the Senate and is seasoned politically; however, she has liabilities associated with the Obama Administration, her personal story and the fact that she is a woman from a political dynasty. On the other hand, Warren, is “Obama light”, lacking experience, where any other time, that would be seen as an asset, with Obama’s falling poll numbers, and obvious errors in all facets of governing, the party association will hamper Warren. Both women will face the prejudice that one fears, won’t be overcome in the next several generations, they are women. Included in that summary is the premise that women are their own worst enemies, and as an example, look no further than 2008, when Clinton, the best of the three remaining candidates (McCain/Obama/Clinton), was cast aside in favor of a “better model”- for the most part by – women.

Although neither major party has anyone who has yet to announce, and speculation runs rampant as usual, the GOP has a real opportunity here, to sweep 3 – the House, the Senate and the White House, if, and only if they run the right candidate in 2016 – one that can compete with both the base and independents (and possibly a few Democrats – this does not mean their usual moderate, nor a fiercely right candidate. The meddling from both major party headquarters, if suspended for the next 3 years, would result in the best and one can be sure the worst of politics, but, it would be pure rather than sullied by those the pull the strings.

That said Warren is the one to watch as the most likely Democrat Party nominee.

Rand Paul best Hillary Clinton in 2016 Hypothetical match-up - Elizabeth Warren, Republican Turned Progressive, responds being credited with the Occupy Movement.

From the Lexington Herald Leader: Rand Paul has “narrowly” bested Hillary Clinton in a 2016 Hypothetical matchup – the Leader called it a “home court advantage”. The final advantage 48 (Paul) to 44 (Clinton) –which is the spread that separated President Obama from Mitt Romney.

Although several sources suggest that Clinton may not run and that the opponent from the left of center will be Elizabeth Warren, until the dust clears, there is little that can be gleaned from these polls other than who is better recognized at the time of the poll. As in 2012 when many top tier polling candidates eventually did not run, it may just be that early polling in 2016 will go the same way. That said, Mass Live (Springfield Republican)’s story this morning on Warren suggests she does not respond well to the truth:

WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is taking exception to a characterization put forth by former student, Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton, as he tries to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas.

In a fundraising letter sent this week, Cotton, who studied under Warren at Harvard Law School prior to her 2012 Senate election, described his former professor as the "intellectual founder of the radical Occupy Movement" and someone who supports a "European-style, single-payer" health care system, according to Talking Points Memo. And on Saturday, Warren struck back with a fundraising plea sent to her thousands of supporters on behalf of Pryor, her colleague in the Senate.

Of interest in the Mass Live article is Warren’s going to bat for endangered Democrats: i.e. Franken in MN and Sheehan in NH and well as Pryor because should she fail, and these Democrats lose their seats, which appears likely in two of the three instances, then, that will leave her little credence with the democrats as to her “star power”. Additionally, using the tire d war on women may not be the best method to denigrate a GOP challenger at this point, given how that panned out after the 2012 elections.

Speculation abounds, however, the players are bound to change, especially should Clinton not run, and Warren become similarly toxic, who then? Joe Biden?

On Benghazi and Boko Harem - Making Excuses by Pillorying Hillary Clinton – to what end?

A Politico article, (here)entitled: “The Boko Haram-Benghazi Link”suggests the premise of the article is a rebuttal to Allen West, the Tea Party Republican who is more than likely to hammer Obama for a host of issues, including the Benghazi Scandal. However, this piece was written to excuse Obama and the administrations culpability in both instances (standing down while letting embassy personnel die and refusing to acknowledge the Boko Haram as terrorist) by laying it squarely on the lap of the Clinton State Department. Sprinkled in amongst the rubbish, was a bit of the bad Republicans continuing to investigate a problem with Benghazi that simply did not exist, because it was part of the Obama administrations abhorrence of getting involved in too many conflicts (feint), and besides it all leads back to the State Department.

Of course, when one is possibly going to make a run at a higher office, say Hillary Clinton, there is nothing more assuring than a little help from one’s friends in the media. Therefore, one would think by dropping seeds that can be used by the opposition and planted at a later date, the Politico team is setting the stage for the anti-Hillary. The question remains – “which woman will the Democrats run instead?” – Look to Massachusetts for the answer. If the Democrats thought, however, that Hillary Clinton maybe a bit of a burden to bear, they may be having second thoughts after 2016. Will Hillary run? It appears less likely by the day. Watch for continued glowing coverage of the Harvard Professor turned Senator, Elizabeth Warren.

Rand Paul Op-Ed NY Times on Drone Use – Now Leads Hillary in Yet Another State Poll

Rand Paul, the Senator from Kentucky, wrote a piece in the New York Times entitled “Show Us the Drone Memo’s – in response to the nomination of David J. Barron, to the 1st Circuit. It was Paul’s usual pointed style, and the 100 comments with an op-ed piece are rather interesting, as it appears that Senator Paul is able to draw approval for his viewpoints from both sides – of course, depending on the issue. That said, petty partisanship aside, there are no other candidates from either major Party that can do the same. Paul’s receiving hits from within his own Party – specifically the Rick Santorum side – Santorum, who ran a second in the 2012, anyone but Mitt Romney, Republican primary, thinks a second and successful run at the gold ring is possible – yet, he is mistaken. Should he actually succeed in getting to Iowa and NH, where a close finish is necessary – he will face stiff opposition from the GOP – where he might find say, Jeb Bush, (i.e. the next Mitt Romney) in the pack of players.

Those supporters, it should be said, of any GOP candidate, specifically one who is tied to social issues, tend not to support any candidacy of anyone but the individual who they prefer.

Which, Jeb Bush would have a hard time, on several fronts, should the GOP foist yet another anointed one on the party itself and those who tend to vote Republican.

Consider that Paul is leading the so called pack, in a best of show against Hillary Clinton in the latest state of the state battleground polling (People’s Punditry). The entire poll results are here at Rockefeller.dartmouth.edu in PDF. Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas separates in 2nd by a hair, yet, Bush and the balance are in the back of the pack. There are far too many unsures, yet, this early trend in Paul’s approach to winning polls (both straw and pollster) are surely interesting and point to someone who can run and, at this point, best the current Democrat leader – or the sole Democrat leader. One would think that if they pushed a few other names, Biden for example, and Warren, that Senator Paul, as well as the balance of the GOP field, would fare better.

Hillary Clinton & the Media – Love-Hate Relationship – Would give anyone Pause to Seek Higher Office

Whether or not one is politically for or against Hillary Clinton’s policies, one has to admit that this particular woman has taken a beating from the press. Regardless of any changes in attitudes during the past 100 years towards women, the press, many of those members women themselves, berated Clinton for what she wore, her hairstyles, personal life, rather than report on her political life. This was especially true in 2008 when she won the popular vote in the primary, only to have it stripped away by her colleges in a super-majority vote at the Democrat Convention – giving all to one Barak Obama. It did not hurt Obama one bit that the press was more than devoted to the one-term state legislator, turned one-term Senator – they threw Hillary under the bus before it even arrived.

Therefore it is no startling revelation when Polticio runs a story on Hillary Clinton and her distaste for the “media” – quoting one associate: ““Look, she hates you. Period. That’s never going to change.”(Politico)

Herein lays the crux of the matter, anyone who is brave enough to enter the fray of national politics is either a quart short on reality or extremely dedicated – but of all the attributes and or less than desirable traits any one candidate may or may not have, the one thing is certain, the press, who has its own agenda, will lift them up or tear them down, depending on the movement and the talking points handed down by an editorial board.

Although one believes that Hillary Clinton would most likely be teaching at Harvard than running for the Office of the President again, it would mean to a woman who has devoted her life to that office, her husband, daughter and constituents, open for yet another shellacking by both the press, and this time an Obama weary nation who is looking for the next shiny new toy another term comes to mind – masochist. Seriously, hate is such a strong word, perhaps reasonable dislike of the entire bunch – right or left would be more appropriate to the situation.

Rand Paul and the Libertarian’s – What’s the appeal going into 2016? – Paul wins Maine Straw Poll

Rand Paul recently won the GOP Straw poll at the Maine GOP convention. (Politico). What that means in the most simple terms, is that the activist within the Maine GOP have a majority of Ron Paul supporters giving him both the college grassroots (where he has a good ground) to set up a solid shop for 2016 in the state. Right as of this morning, leading in hypothetical national polls is fine, but without ground troops; one might as well be throwing money into the wind when trying to put together a national campaign.

You need both –

Enter the “Wealthy” Libertarians as they would be dubbed by the New York Times:

“As he has risen in prominence as a Republican presidential contender, Mr. Paul is avidly courting a small but influential cluster of wealthy libertarians. His pursuit offers an intriguing window into an eclectic network of potential donors who have made fortunes in Silicon Valley start-ups and Wall Street hedge funds, a group that could form a vital donor base if he makes a bid for the Republican nomination. A tight-knit tribe of philanthropists and entrepreneurs, they have exerted enormous intellectual influence on conservative policy. But they have historically spent more on nonprofit groups and endowing college economics departments than they have on backing candidates.”

In other words, a Barry Goldwater, who ran as a Republican, and attracted college students and Middle America, including one young Hillary Rodham Clinton.(The Economist)

What is the appeal one might ask when one weighs the differences between the two major parties, and one individual who has a political ideology from a third party? The third party, Libertarians hold a variety of belief’s that appeal to both Conservatives as well as Liberals- they are, for the most part, anti-war, pro-woman’s rights, and complete fiscal conservatives –suggesting that without free-markets (Capitalism) one might as well pack it in. Smart spending versus Big Government wasteful spending has always been a bone of contention with the Libertarian. What Goldwater did not have was timing. Whereas Paul does – today’s millennial are disaffected and disappointed – there are fewer opportunities of the scale that would make younger people more independent and offer more mobility, rather than the current trend of living indefinitely with parents in order to pay off enormous student loans (that industry owned by the Federal Government as well), while finding temp work rather than a career for which they had prepared.

Therefore, as the timing is one which would welcome a state’s rights, free market thinker in the political arena, it may take some doing for the left (including the media) to scare the voter away from Senator Paul. Although odds are better than average that the Democrats will include a woman at the top of the ticket – the timing for that maybe off a bit. With a brand damaged by the Affordable Health Care act, among other lesser publicized “scandals” – the 2014 and 2016 elections will be held in the hands of Barack Obama, much in the same way as the 2006 and 2008 elections were credited to George W. Bush. (Note on that front, the RNC’s ability to front the weakest candidate possible in a given year where by any counts they should win handily, confounds logic. In the case of Bush, some blame has to be placed on the candidacy of John McCain, a Bob Dole for the present age. Romney is another RNC pick, and they are seriously dragging out the political dynasty of Bush once again, with Jeb. One can only hope that they play their cards correctly this time out and stay out of this General Election. It is time for a shift to Liberty minded “Jeffersonian Republicans” to take the reins. Paul is that person, it remains to be seen if his broad appeal to multiple factions opens the eyes of those in DC that cannot see beyond the beltway.

2014-2016 – Party Affiliation No-More – Rand Paul Wow’s Independent Youth Vote – Bests Clinton - Nation Leaning Unaffiliated

Party Affiliation in the U.S. appears to be on the downside, with higher percentages suggesting they prefer no party affiliation according to Gallup Polling – at 42%, the highest percentage in 25 years (Gallup). Another poll from Reason shows a deep distrust of politicians in general,(Reason, with access to crosstabs) which builds a strong case for those running who, while being affiliated with a political party, are not entrenched politicians who parrot their political affiliation party line.

As 2016 polling is strictly hypothetical at this point, given the fact that the 2014 mid-terms must first take place before the real games begin, it is still of interest as to which way the individuals polled are leaning. Take the latest Quinnipiac polling on how Colorado sees the 2016 race. Among likely candidates, Rand Paul is besting Hillary Clinton, and other “rivals”, at the top of the chart – being preferred by the college vote, a normal Democrat stranglehold. (Politico) (A side thought - Colorado is much like Massachusetts)

As the independent voter, regardless of lean, increases, and the distaste and distrusts of those perceived as part of the problem continues to rise, those who, like Senator Rand Paul, stand a better than average chance of reaching for the Presidential Brass Ring with success. Those who are seen as part of a political dynasty may sound fabulous to those who are part of the “machine”, however, to those who vote, and the vote counts, a different outcome is likely. Therefore, one can suggest given the early data, that the individuals running for the highest office will be “gimmicky” (i.e. first this or that), and brand new to the political scene (less than say 3 or 4 terms) and not be wedded to a political party to the teeth, (voting against one’s party on occasion). That leaves very few eligible for the position.