So Long Harry and Thanks for All the Fish! The President’s Legacy – Will He or Won’t He Work with the GOP once freed of Reid?

The title is in reference to Douglas Adam’s 5 part trilogy beginning with A Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy and ending with “So Long and Thanks’ for All the Fish”. Basically if one has any familiarity with this irreverent take on life and its karma – then Harry Reid is about to become of those characters, the villain who is given his comeuppance, as the party faithful flee.

Tomorrow will be a day of historic proportions some pundits suggest, however, it may also be the tipping point in a mid-term where the population, in general, rejects, not only the Administration’s policies, but the progressives as a whole. Time of course, will tell, however, a recent Suffolk poll on the Massachusetts Governor’s race is telling. The Marginals (here) are chock full of surprises: In this poll, Baker leads Coakely for the Governor’s office by 4 points, and the President’s approval in MA remains underwater at 44%, Hillary Clinton’s visit to help out Martha Coakley had a net zero effect, with 61.4% suggesting it made no difference at all and finally, 28% watched Fox News more than any other network. The poll was based on Massachusetts political enrollment, 51% Unenrolled, 11% GOP, and 38% Democrat (approximately) – which does not bode well across the board for Progressives. The Ballot questions are also of interest, most favor keeping the casino and reject including bottled water, etc. in the states bottle return program.(Boston Herald)

North to New Hampshire, is the Scott Brown Race against Jean Shaheen, which is, at present a tie, Iowa was a tie, until a Des Moines Register Final poll showed no contest at all, with Earnst up by 7 points, and the Democrat Candidate suggesting she looks like Taylor Swift (Politico)

It is indeed a world gone somewhat wild. Given that the Republicans are set to take upwards to 10 seats (as some models show Iowa as a toss-up), and additional congressional seats, the President will be in a position to get things accomplished, should he be of that mind. With Reid gone from the equations (possibly a loud and obnoxious voice in the Senate to be sure, but no longer hampering votes and legislation from seeing the light of day, the President will have more opportunity to pass or veto as he sees’ fit.

Should the President reject overtures of bi-partisanship from the new Congress, then they have a loud enough group going into 2014 to continue to “Bushwhack” him, and the White House will also fall to the GOP – which, given history, is more than likely to happen even if the President was granted sainthood.

That said, a legacy is at stake, and rather going down in history as the rival to Jimmy Carter, he does have the opportunity to come out of this looking a lot more like Bill Clinton. The question remains, will he use the next two years to thwart the congress by any means (including overreach of the Constitution), or will he “play ball” and give and get in the dance of legislation?

Voters Are Angry – From MA to CA – Pelosi Begs for Cash as Rome Burns – Rand Paul in 30 States Supporting Candidates - Small tsunami or Armageddon?

According to CNN voters are somewhat miffed, to say the least, a full 60% or greater are angry at the direction of the country – that type of anger, the pollster suggests, is exactly what drove the wave of 2010 – the U.S. House takeover by the GOP. (CNN). What’s more, Nancy Pelosi is reported to be asking for cash from her minions in the Congress as the situation in House races is dicey again this mid-term. (Politico).

If that’s not bad enough, that rascally Rand Paul (KY-R) is running ads in Kansas of all places, to support the Senate candidate in that state. In addition, Rand’s PAC has been busy this mid-term, in other states where there is a need of support. Revealed by ABC news Rand has visit 30 states in this mid-term. (ABS News).

The standard GOP team for 2016 must be having conniption fits – Rand, not the ideal GOP candidate due to his many faults, such as voter outreach in groups largely ignored by the Party due to “belonging to the other party”, and darn it, a different approach to tax payers money (not spending it), and foreign policy (let ‘s not get overly involved) – yet he’s got the Reagan mojo going, and is undoubtedly the only candidate they have, or more precisely the nation has, that is a) willing and b) capable of reining in the insanity. That’s this opinion of course, however, historical patterns do play out – it is time for change in a positive direction – a candidate that will appeal to a large cross-section of the populace.

Massachusetts is seeing an anomaly as the GOP Candidate for Governor, Charley Baker, has been endorsed by almost every paper in the state, including the Boston Globe(Boston Globe) and the Springfield Republican.(Masslive) This is just the icing on the cake with Martha Coakley's 9 point deficit in the Boston Globe poll.

Two competitive Congressional Races are shaping up in MA – John Chapman against Incumbent Keating in the 9th district, and Richard Tisea versus newcomer Seth Mouton, standing in for defeated former 6th district rep, Tierney.

In New Hampshire, Scott Brown has taken the lead slightly over Jean Shaheen, whose supporters are sticking yard signs everywhere about the state touting her close relationship with the President – they will receive thank you notes from Brown’s campaign come that Wed. Morning in Nov.

The theory goes as follows, if Massachusetts has suddenly gone slightly purple, and then what of the rest of the nation where blue is not normally the flavor of the month?

Never mind the Tsunami – Armageddon is upon the Democrat party, and they know it. It is time for new leadership of the JFK ilk to pull my father’s party out of the ditch – not one capable person on the horizon that fits the bill.

2014 – Senate Preparing for Party Switch – 2016 – Begins with Rand Paul

Barring any massive upheavals in the universe as it is today, the outcome of the 2014 mid-terms will, in all probability, produce a GOP majority. With that in mind the Senate is said to be preparing on both sides of the old aisle for the “switch” according to the Wall Street Journal, and Harry Reid intends to continue to drag down the Democrat Party – go figure. (WSJ)

Not wasting any time, nor letting grass grow under his feet, the Most Interesting Man in Politics, Rand Paul (Time Magazine) , has scheduled his first 2016 team meeting, this according to the National Jouranl(picked up as well by the Hill Blog.

It is that season, that political season, where the meek crumble and those that are either crazy and or decidedly dedicated or a bit of both, would take on the prospect of a grueling primary, and if one should win, take an even greater task, the general election – all for the booby prize of landing in the nations White House. In this wise, and in this time, the stakes are so high in the “can it be fixed at all area”, that one has to have a bit of crazy to even consider running. Either way, no matter which side, or who the candidate is, it behooves all citizens to thank them for even suggesting they might be interested in the job of dragging us out of this very deep ditch. Of course, this bloggers preference at this moment in time is the Kentucky doctor, Rand Paul. He meets the ridiculous criteria: younger, hipper, and more in tune with the entire population, he makes the covers of the magazines and most beautiful people’s list. Additionally, he is smarter than all that, has run his own business, is a doctor, has a deep understanding of the constitution the way it was written, and prefers individual to states rights. In other word, a Renaissance man that has his pulse on the country, which is a great prescription for this time and space.

On The Run – Kay Hagen (D-NC) calls for West Africa Flight Bans – Progressive Dem., E. Warren touts line Republicans have “Rigged” Election?

On The Run – Kay Hagen (D-NC) calls for West Africa Flight Bans – Progressive Dem., E. Warren touts line Republicans have “Rigged” Election?

One can smell blood in the water, and those are the small businesses how are suddenly ramping up as they see a safe haven on the horizon. The Democrats will lose the Senate and gain additional seats in the House in 2014, this is a given by most pollsters. What are endangered Democrats to do? –Act like Republicans – Take Kay Hagen, Democrat incumbent in N.C.’s senate race. Hagen was bitterly against banning flights from affected West African Nations during the Ebola crisis, whiles her opponent Tillis, was not. Polling suggested that the general public might just side with Tillis, and lo and behold: Time’s headline blares:Democratic Senate Candidates Back Ebola Travel Ban” . That would be Kay Hagen in a major policy switch otherwise known as flip-flopping to salvage one’s “career” as a public servant.

Meanwhile in Minnesota, in an allegedly “safe” Senate Race – Funnyman turned Senator , Al Franken, Progressive Democrat, has the party’s super-star, Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) out stumping for him. The Washington Post reports that Warren, in front of a huge crowd of 400 Franklin supporters, she quipped: "The game is rigged, and the Republicans rigged it," to the screaming 400 .

When you have party headliners going to states to stump for candidates (Warren’s headed to Colorado next, to try and bail out Udall - heck, Bill Clintons’ coming to MA to stump for Martha Coakley!) there are major losses on the horizon. Those last ditch party stars are brought in with the intent of helping to at least get out the base. Those door knockers and senior center, nursing home ghouls, who “help “people to vote, especially if an election appears to be on the downward side.

This time, it may not help. Try as they might to get away from the fact that they have been aiding an abiding an incompetent and therefore, dangerous to the health and welfare of the citizens, by oh, refusing to say whether or not they voted for Obama, they can’t. If they stood up for what they truly believed in - they’d stand a better chance. Kay should stick to the party line that she believes in – Warren is an opportunities who will say anything to get anywhere, thus she’s in full character, and acting as usual. More respect to Warren. Suffice it to say, there will be a few new faces in DC come January.

Something New, Nothing Borrowed, Nothing Blue – Massachusetts Reacting 2014

For all the ills that are affecting our great nation, mainly due to incompetence of leadership in the administration, which is effectively perceived as the Political Party it represents, the final straw has broken. Take Massachusetts, the “bluest” state for example; there is a possibility and a better than average possibility that both the Governor’s Seat as well as two Congressional seats will see changes in a few weeks.

The first is the battle between Charlie Baker and Martha Coakely – Martha being a flawed candidate3 from the getgo has made the national stage again in Poltiico’s hit piece “Martha Chokeley”. Basically the article outlines the problems Martha has faced in the past and faces still, unless the dead vote, and there are mysterious voting boxes in certain districts that are friendly to non-english speaking voters, Martha will go down in proverbial flames. The Unenrolled (which describes this bloggers political affiliation as none) have had it.

This lack of enthusiasm and distrust of all things old (or holding office) is evidenced by a new poll (PDF Here) released by Emerson College/WGBH, not exactly conservative pollsters, regarding the 6th Congressional District. It is not so much that the Republican, Richard Tisei is that far ahead of the Democrat running, it is a draw given the margin of error. The stunning reveal in this poll is Obama’s approval rating: a 62.6% unfavorable opinion of the President exists in the 6thth Congressional district. Blow me over with a feather.

This is Massachusetts.

Over on the Cape, the incumbent Democrat, Keating is a tad on the squeezed side, according to the Boston Globe, John Chapman is handing him his hat – yes another Republican Pickup.

If one understands that the Cape is more conservative than say Lowell and the 6th district, one can well imagine that without some serious cheating going on, the Democrats will lose heavily in Massachusetts.

This is Massachusetts – where there is a point that the people rise up and say, enough – the news out of everywhere is so horrifying that event he level headed are starting to think that the end is near, especially those who are currently holding offices and have a (D) somewhere in their history.

If this is taking shape in Massachusetts, then imagine what is happening elsewhere?

Where less progressive heads prevail.

Senate Elections 2014 – NC Debate leaves questions – Hagan hammers Millionaires – clueless on Kennedy Equal Pay Act. Picking Harry Reid’s Replacement.

It’s difficult to tell which races will be the one to finally push Harry Reid (D-NV) off his mighty perch, and send him back to the floor of the Senate in order to finally get something, anything done. Granted a conservative here, but unenrolled, as disgust for both organized political parties is what drives a clear vision of what might be wrong in Washington. This fuels a constant infatuation with CSPAN and debates around the nation for the Federal Senate and House seats up for grabs in less than a month. Grab the popcorn and possibly some aspirin as this is not for the impatient, nor those who cannot stand another slogan; especially that darn “war on women”.

Taking a quick look at the races on Real Clear Politics, it appears that the following races are “toss-ups” based on the latest polling: AK: Begich (D), AR: Pryor (D), CO: Udall (D), GA: Open (R), IA: Open (D), KS: Roberts (R), KY: McConnell (R), LA: Landrieu (D), NH: Shaheen (D), NC: Hagan (D) . (Real Clear Politics). The control of the Senate rests on a handful of seats, 6 – which, one might note – is a conservative estimate. Looking at the aforementioned races - and employing some handicapping – on these: Sullivan trumps Begich in AK, in AR - Cotton tops Pryor, in CO – Udall trumps, GA, Perdue, IA, Ernst (that’s by a hair), KS: Orman, (I), LA, Cassidy, in NH, Scott Brown, and in NC, Tillis *Based on last night’s debate.

Therefore, we have 7, plus the 3 open seats in considered safe Republican (MS, SD, WV) and that brings the number to 7 – with 9 Democrat takeover’s – and Udall Safe (so far). The Senate needs to start seriously considering who would fit the bill to undo the damage Harry Reid has done, and to get things moving – at the very least a pretense at work. This will also allow the House, who has passed a slew of bills which have all been denied a vote at the Senate (sitting on Reid’s desk) a chance to either pass or not, depending on merits.

Back to Hagen, The News and Observer notes that neither candidate pulled any punches, however, it also appeared that they could not step away from attacks, one liners aimed at the people who have to choose between the two and figure out which one is more reprehensible – in this opinion that would be Kay – she appears to be earnest until she drags out that War on Women, and BS about having to pass an Equal Pay Act, whereby Tillis actually understands there is already one on the books, signed by one John F. Kennedy in 1963, and it just needs to be enforced. Probably the best place to start would be Washington DC. The Dem’s need new talking points, and the President has supplied the GOP for this election, but they’ll need something new for the next. Otherwise, it is no wonder that anyone with any sense sees this as a chess game of more entitlements vs. less government – and will vote accordingly.

One has to ask, if JFK signed an Equal Pay Act in in 1963 (remarks and information courtesy of University of California at Santa Barbara), why was there a need for others? – Why not enforce the law on the books? Because, women in general, as consumers, and potential voters, are considered a minority, due to what? Sheer numbers suggest that without political division women would rule (literally), therefore, not enforcing certain laws, keeps major political parties in force (equal pay, border security, blah, blah, blah). Did Tillis remind Hagen that this was the case? – Nope, he just stole the President’s line about the agenda this election, and that was, in essence the entire debate. It is a good line, but..as far as debates go..I’ve had better with my Beagle.

About polls, personally they play a part and suggest a lean one way or the other, however, given the man on the street theory, whereby, people have had it across the board, (apparently the improving economy has not trickled down to what used to be the middle class), then bloodbath is the only word on would suggest for the Progressive Democrats this election, and with only 2 years to recover, anyone running on the aforementioned ticket in the general, should have the DNC front the entire bill.

As a betting individual using polls and politics, there is margin of error. For example in 2012 there was no way to convince this individual otherwise that even Mickey Mouse would have been able to ace the presidency under a GOP ticket – however, there was a miscalculation - there had to be a type of candidate in play to get both Tea Party (fiscal conservatives) and Evangelicals (those that believe certain religions are cults and therefore would not vote for say – a Mormon) – the theory by the RNC that no matter who they choose as a candidate would be better and that the base would go along, apparently were wrong. Leading to a gross error in prognostication on my part – go figure.

Scott Brown Leads Shaheen in new Polling – Significant Jump – Rove rants about Funding and potential Senate Loss

Two for one that are somewhat connected.

A vox populi polling released a new poll showing Scott Brown besting the incumbent by favorable numbers Although the polling firm is a Republican grounded firm (as in employees), they have a fairly decent tract record so far as calling a race. They had Eric Cantor in trouble prior to his significant loss to a man who had no money.

Which brings us to Karl Rove’s dire predictions on the Senate race published in the Wall Street Journal. Rove warns that the GOP is at a distinct cash advantage and Democrats are buying airtime over Republicans in key states.(WSJ)

One might be concerned if, those showing up at the polls were fewer and angrier than in most general elections. Additionally, between now and November, there is significant time for trends to change. That said, most of the nation does not know who to blame, but Congress. According to a new poll, most of those believe that Congress is controlled by Democrats! (Rasmussen) Add that to the President’s approval ratings, and one might think looking for six measly seats, may turn into find 12.

WSJ/NBC Poll – Obama Confidence Low - Approval Sinks – Nation Rejects Both Major Political Entities

Most American's having difficulty telling DC Democrats or Republicans apart - image toonrefugee.com

The latest WSJ poll is out and according to NBC News the nation is no longer divided on President Obama’s capabilities; they are disapproving by the widest margin to date. In the same poll analysis by NBC, they note that the Republicans in Congress are doing worse than the President – and nearing the end of the article, note that most voters would rather not see their incumbent in office any longer (NBC News).

That was made evident last week in the stunning (to D.C.) defeat of Eric Cantor to College Professor, David Brat. One might suggest that that scenario will play out in coming primaries, regardless of which Party flavor, in the ensuing months. When it comes to the general, one might predict 40-50% of the seats will changes hands, which is not, by any means a conservative figure, however, when one looks closely at the 2013 local elections (yes, this anti-incumbent fervor had a trickle-down effect) – the incumbent lost in large numbers, in cities small and large.

As the leadership of each major political party has been called into question as of late, the 2016 prospects of those Libertarian Leaning politicians is looking up.

In the past weekends IA GOP convention Rand Paul (K), spoke to a room that decidedly changed their minds regarding the Senator, having previously been committed to other potential candidates, they came away deciding that Paul was the better choice, or at the very least, someone they would vote for .(U.S. News)

At the Massachusetts Democrat Convention Martha Coakely and Steve Grossman will face off in primaries against two others who made the ballot, according to the Boston Globe , the winner of which will face Charlie Baker for the Bay State corner office. Normal Massachusetts politics generally has a solid candidate going into the general, with either little or no primary challengers.

One might see both major political party fractioning in the ensuing years, as well as shifts, the Democrats becoming decidedly Progressive Socialist while Republicans more Libertarian in nature. Voter angst against the status quo will undoubtedly ensure that this scenario plays out either in whole or in part.

San Diego Mayor’s Race – Not the Unusual Outcome Noted – This is part for the Course to date

From the San Diego Union Tribune The San Diego Mayor’s race was won by a decisive victory – the winner, Republican Kevin Faulcone.(UT San Diego). This was despite the best efforts of Democrats and Unions using their usual model of negative attack ads and oodles of cash thrown at a progressive candidate(National Review with statistics).

Apparently, no one was watching the 2013 local races across the nation, where smaller cities experienced a somewhat hostile rebuke of incumbents – and this was regardless of Party. This will be especially interesting going into the 2014 mid-terms. Generally lower turnout – and a real antipathy towards anyone remotely spending long-terms in Washington.

In a word, if it can happen in Massachusetts, and in California, it can happen anywhere. If the mood of the electorate remains the same, 2014 will bring an entirely new Senate and Congress. Should the Democrats no longer control the Senate – there is zero chance they would control the House, then Harry Reid is removed as Majority Leader and finally the log-jam of partisan bickering will be done – Those Republican’s who have played to the left of the party – (compromise is one thing, rolling over is another0, will most likely find themselves replaced by someone who is more – liberty minded.

Also of note – the RNC may find itself butting heads with the Christian Right Wing, as they are finally awake, and looking at candidates that will meet their standards. Therefore, the largest voter turnout that never took place in 2012 will be enforce in 2016 – regardless of the hype surrounding any candidate that is brought forth from the Democrat side of the aisle.

Historically it would be the rebuttal to Obama in 2016 as it was to George W. Bush in 2008.

How vulnerable are the Democrats? John Chapman to run for MA9 against Keating (D) – Has NRCC Support – Hell Freezes Over

John Chapman, Candidate for the MA9 - image from www.johnchapman2014.com

From the Springfield Republican, an article on vulnerable Democrats trying to “straddle” on Obamacare apparently has some play, even in Blue Massachusetts.(Masslive) What is, perhaps, even more shocking is the candidacy of John Chapman, former Romney Official, who will be running for the 9th Congressional District in MA (Masslive). In a press release this morning, the NRCC noted:

WASHINGTON - Today, the National Republican Congressional Committee announced that John Chapman has been elevated to ‘On the Radar’ in the NRCC’s ‘Young Guns’ program. The program will help to provide candidates and their campaigns the tools they need to run effective, successful and winning campaigns against their Democratic opponents. Originally founded in the 2007-2008 election cycle by Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), Majority Whip Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Budget Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), the Young Guns program supports and mentors challenger and open-seat candidates in races across the country. Chapman is running in Massachusetts’ 9th Congressional District.

“I am confident that John Chapman will be a successful and dedicated member of this program and that he will continue to work hard to reach the crucial campaign benchmarks that have been established ahead of the 2014 elections,” said NRCC Chairman Greg Walden. “Massachusetts’ hardworking families deserve better than skyrocketing health care costs, financial instability and mountains of debt on their backs. I am certain that John Chapman will be a strong contender this election cycle.”

John Chapman's career has taken him from the Reagan White House, where he served as an aide in the Counsel's Office, to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, where he led investigations into Wall Street corruption and financial fraud, to the highest levels of Massachusetts state government, where he was an agency commissioner and undersecretary of economic development. John was also General Counsel for the Joslin Diabetes Center, an affiliate of Harvard Medical School, and a former partner at the law firm of Duane Morris LLP, where he advised corporate clients on enforcement and compliance issues, corporate governance and regulatory matters.

Throughout his entire career John has exhibited the personal qualities of leadership, determination, collaboration and diplomacy, which will serve him well as the 9th District's next Congressman

Normally, Massachusetts receives little to no support for any candidates running with an ® following their name, however, this year might be different, support from D.C. or no. Although a firm Reagan-Romney Republican (which is to say, possibly conflicted enough to be both moderate and conservative, thus appealing to all factions in the MA independent party (50 % unenrolleds registered.), one gets the sense that perhaps no place is a “safe spot for incumbents.

Which begs the question, if the NRCC is pegging one Candidate in the Bay State what next? One should see opposition candidates for almost every district, and unless there is a huge, get out the low information voter turnout by the Democrats – unlikely in a mid-term, then changes are in the wind. Not only in Massachusetts, but nationwide.

One might also point out that since the electorate is somewhat unhappy with a list of complaints, most prevalent is the economy, and the disconnect between Washington and the “rest of the nation”.

2014 may prove, in the long-run to be predictable, but one should not bet on it.

2014= In with the New – Out with Everything Washington – the wrath of the American Taxpayer.

A Morning’s Musing – or Rant

In a recent conversation regarding politics in the U.S., it was brought to my attention that those that know, and understand the Washington circles are obviously insulated, but not to the point where they have lost the ability to see the forest through the tree’s – in other words, something’s afoot, they just can’t quite get their fingers on it. It appears that those old stalwarts in the Senate, regardless of Party are facing challengers and polling in areas that they certainly should not. That would be the case if the public were perfectly happy with those that are sent to do the people’s bidding. but by appearing not to do what they were sent to do, it is also appearing they may be retiring early.

Kentucky and Mitch McConnell for instance – a “safe seat “for the most part, except McConnell is facing deficit in his race against a Democrat , in not one poll, but all polls(politicusa). That would be fine and dandy except that the tea party candidate bests all of them.

And they aren’t taking it lightly – that’s the Tea Party – They are, according to the New York Post mounting challenges to both McConnell and Grahamand not a moment to soon.

Where else does one find a race that may be worth keeping an eye on? Not yet declared Scott Brown does something for charity –which is usual for Scott Brown, but since he’s in New Hampshire and a hypothetical poll shows him in a dead head with Jean Sheehan (Democrat Senator), those in the Granitite are hoping he will run, to push that along the Washington Post is reporting that Brown appeared shirtless on the cover of the Union Leader – of course, that was due to the fact that he wasn’t about to plunge into the icy bay with a wetsuit, so, he appeared san shirt –the Union Leader, is just trying to stir the pot.

Being a MA resident who saw Brown as the best Senator the State (Bay) had in eons, as he actually got things done, he wrote bills, eh got them passed, and he did most of what the people sent him there to do, always with an eye on his State and all of the people in it –New Hampshire could do worse, it is MA’s loss.

If one thinks this will stop at the borders of Kentucky, the Carolinas, or New Hampshire, think again. It is a way of the public, even those low information voters, suddenly getting interested in “throwing the bums out!” – Regardless of which bums happen to be warming seat – and it defies party rules. Publicly not so much but privately –they’ll vote anyone in who isn’t currently sitting in Washington.

Those that want to stay in their seat, should be home in their districts and pumping it up by denying the following: I had zero to do with Obamacare, I had zero to do with that harebrained immigration bill, I had zero to do with the farm bill, and a host of other things that are costly and do nothing to help the middle class. (Or what is left of it.) One might want to point fingers at Obama, but he’s literally yesterday’s news. He’s got two years left, and in that time, he’s about as relevant as Hillary Clinton. Who to watch, the darling of the left – Elizabeth Warren for the DNC nod – she’s got about as much experience as Obama did in 2007-2008 – therefore, she makes sense.

On the side of the Elephant, of which there is a rather larger one In the room – chaos reigns on paper –but, as the dust settles and those who are serious stand up –one will find that the old guard, that moldy old bunch of bum crowners, will have their hands full. All it will take it one of those new Jeffersonian Republicans’ to stand up and take it to the folks, because no one is waiting for the next Reagan, they are waiting for the guy who will lead, without a lot of ridiculous promises but with common sense solutions. Finally it would not hurt a whit if that person could care less about how his party feels about him and or how the press feels about him –that would be the icing on the cake. The taxpayer isn’t looking for shiny new or women or hyena of what have you – they are looking for stability and a little crazy thrown in for good measure.

New Hampshire – 2014- Scott Brown – Not Declared – behind Sheehan (D) Incumbent by3 points? –Let the Games Begin

One does not even have to be a declared candidate to meet polling margin of error in 2014 -image Poltiico

2014 is starting to shape up similarly to 2009 - Politico is reporting that Public Policy Polling has Scott Brown with an early deficit of 3 points should he decide to run against the incumbent, Democrat Cindy Sheehan.

To those watching minor mayoral races, city council races, and the like in 2009, there was a refreshing schematic that became apparent in close to sixty percent of the races nationwide, and that was the incumbent – lost. It was not, by any means, a partisan route, as in Democrats only – although that did play a factor in Massachusetts. However, it was anti-incumbency – mad at Congress and the major parties, that had a hand it the vote.

Therefore, one would surmise, that no seat is “safe” in 2014. Of course, that’s a long ways off – and things can and do change. The economy could come roaring back to life, the Democrat and the Republicans in Congress and the Senate, might just put aside all their difference and cooperate on multiple issues, especially the revising the Affordable Health Care Act, the President might just get a little more centric, and Harry Reid may switch parties – all of the aforementioned, of course, are as likely as any change taking place to alleviate the overtaxed and disappearing middle class, as well as the angst felt by those 20 something’s who have – no hope.

Polling is also a funny thing, depending upon the pollster – a recent Rasmussen Poll on Presidential matchups, for example, gave two choices as to whom one would prefer – Hillary Clinton or Chris Christie. One was compelled to finish the polling electing one or the other. If the point of the poll was to see how one would do against another in this hypothetical match up – that’s fine, but if it were to give an overall view of how the vote may go – it was far off the mark. Other choices, could have included Rand Paul, the Senator from Kentucky – who one would hazard to guess would do well across a broad spectrum of voters – as well as anyone who has an idea and not a permanent place in D.C.

Yes, Brown could win New Hampshire easily, he’s new to New Hampshire (sort of), he had a get along and get my way approach to legislation in his short time in the Senate, and he got things done (which message failed to get across with all that screeching about Billionaires, and ads suggesting that ok, he did his job, but he just might vote Republican. In Massachusetts, that’s pretty much all one used to need.

Notice the past tense.

Therefore watching races across the country, look to the underdog –the one candidate that is not politically savvy in the Congressional districts, especially during the primary season. This time around, one thinks it might not be scads of cash that’s going to make or break an election (although it does help) it might just be the people who decide – enough is enough.

Heading into the Mid-Terms, 2013 City and State Elections send confusing signals to those that rely on polling and national Political Parties. – The rise of the Anti-Incumbent Voter

There is an interesting article in the Los Angeles Times this morning worthy of a read - 'Battle is not over' after a close Virginia governor's race” speaks to the very close call between two opposing ideologies, one Democrat and one Tea Party – The Republican Candidate – was, in reality, Tea Party, and nothing made that more clear than the National GOP jumping in far too late in the game, with little cash to back up the campaign, in a last effort ditch to save “face” (See Red State) – Yet with no support, (from the RNC) this Tea Party insurgent came within a hair’s breath of winning the Governors seat, and not against any candidate, but against, a long entrenched political hack, who was heavily financed, and included support of the President and Vice President – as a Democrat, that win translates into a victory, but…not a resounding victory. Cuccinelli did what he could, but one can bet the house that future races similar in nature will see little asking or accepting of help in any form of the national GOP.

Things to consider regarding this national race: Tea Party Candidate is not saying he is not a Tea Party Candidate – in Virginia which is a purple state at best, not red/not blue – and he performed well, and possibly without the “help” of the national GOP would have won outright.

It was a race that both men ran as non-incumbents, another plus for McAuliffe. There are many former mayors this morning, as well as City Councilors and so on, and that was because they were – the incumbent. It would behoove anyone who is even remotely thinking of a run in the mid-terms or 2016 to distance themselves from major parties – politely – or if they do run, admit they are doing it for the right reason, to get their help – but again, does anyone really want the help of those who can’t get one elected, unless by default (See McAuliffe).

On the local level, those of us watching popular Democrat Mayors of larger Massachusetts cities, lose, outright, not because they did not perform well, but because they were seen as an incumbent – bring in Republican mayors, something unthinkable – there was the reverse as well, where Democrats upset Republicans’ – the mood – throw out anyone who was an incumbent, unless of course, one had no choice!

If either major party has any smarts, they might want to analyze these local election – it’s telling – and apparently throwing millions and presidents at a race, buys one a nail biter – This looks like a change o guard in 2014. – Those voters did not care which party got the boot – they were booting both.

As to Chris Christie’s return to the Governor’s office in New Jersey-= yes, that was a given, he is popular in NJ primarily because he can claim to be a Republican, but at the same time, act like a Democrat – he’s either a hybrid or disingenuous – but its Jersey Politics. As to the GOP push for Christie as a Presidential Candidate – if one put him up against, Elizabeth (Hiawatha) Warren, a single term Senate Seat warmer, in the mold of Barack Obama, she would win.

Therefore, the Patriots in this nation need to learn how to outsmart those bozo’s at the RNC and the DNC, and take it to the people.

Just a thought