2016 Update – O’Malley Announces from Baltimore, Cruz Campaigns in MA, Paul to Stop in MA

The former Governor of Maryland, Martin O’Malley, launched his Presidential Campaign in Baltimore, joining Bernie Sanders of VT and Hillary Clinton in the quest for the Democrat nomination for 2016. (Yahoo News). O’Malley presents a reasonable alternative to Clinton and can be made to appear more mainstream than either Clinton or Sanders – the one to watch on the Dem. Side.

Meanwhile, in Massachusetts of all places, Ted Cruz has a campaign rally in Andover this past weekend according to the Andover Eagle Tribune, the event, held on private property, saw over 500 in attendance. Granted MA is close to the NH border, however, Rob Eno over at Red Mass Group suggests that the 2016 primary in MA will count for a multitude of reasons, least among them the number of delegates to the Convention and the fact that the Bay State Primary is earlier making this a competitive state. (Red Mass Group)

On June 7th, Rand Paul will be in Peabody for a campaign event, at the Marriott, tickets are paid, making this a fundraiser/campaign rally(document via Facebooks’ Massachusetts for Rand Paul page.

There are rarely visits to Massachusetts by any politician campaigning for the Presidency, one might site Big-Foot first, so this is an anomaly –however, given the makeup of the state, with the majority of voters registered as unenrolled (or independent) it is a perfect stop for those seeking support, both in votes and financially. Given the Jeffersonian Republican wing of the party more prevalent in the Bay State, both Paul and Cruz, could fare well here, especially with boots on the ground.

Both parties fields are more robust than previously predicted, the GOP with the most varied field in memory, and the Democrats starting to pick up options making a Clinton-Bush rematch less likely than touted by the media and both DC based parties. America can temporarily breathe a sigh of relief – until both drop out of the race.

2014 NH-MA Update – Brown Gains on Shaheen, Baker-Coakley Tied - New -Obamacare at Tax Time

The Boston Globe is reporting that Scott Brown’s gain’s against incumbent Democrat Shaheen is due to the “anti-Obamacare” sentiment in the Live Free or Die state (Boston Globe). Given the fact that USA Today announced those who did buy Obamacare with Subsidies will be seeing a penalty at tax time. The gist:

A significant benefit of the Affordable Care Act is the opportunity to receive money-saving tax credits up front to cut the overall cost of health insurance, but now hundreds of thousands of consumers could owe back some of that money next April.

Those affected took advance payments of the premium tax credit for health insurance. Some married couples could owe $600 or $1,500 or $2,500 or even more. It might feel like a raw deal for some who are already suffocating under the escalating costs of health insurance.

(USA Today)

Unless some sort of miracle occurs, and the trust is regained in politicians who have pushed this policy forward (all Democrats), then Brown should handily win in New Hampshire, and have plenty of company in other “safe” Democrat Senate and Congressional races nationwide. If that issue were one alone, it would not play as well, however, there is the immigration issue, the ISIS issue, and a host of other scandals that will have far reaching effects (see 2016).

The Massachusetts Governor's race also appears to be tied up: Rasmussen got involved and found the race at a dead heat with 1 month to go. (MASSLive) Martha is, perhaps, the worst second chance candidate the Mass Democrats could have fostered. Favoring raising taxes, scandal after scandal, and a very weary electorate should see Baker in the corner office. The only thing that makes this a “may” is the ability of the Dem boots on the ground to miraculously come up with 30,000 extra voters 11 hours before any given election (should the odds not be in their favor.) If Baker and the State GOP do not have poll watchers and attorneys present at most of the major cities, then it may still go Martha’s way. The Secretary of the Commonwealth has left the million plus dead and missing voters on the roles for just such an occasion. Incidentally, those same dead voters collect ebt cards . Local news stories, which do not appear to have much of an effect when the balloting is done. In order for Baker to best Coakley he needs to be 5 points up. When that happens, it’s a Baker Governorship.

How vulnerable are the Democrats? John Chapman to run for MA9 against Keating (D) – Has NRCC Support – Hell Freezes Over

John Chapman, Candidate for the MA9 - image from www.johnchapman2014.com

From the Springfield Republican, an article on vulnerable Democrats trying to “straddle” on Obamacare apparently has some play, even in Blue Massachusetts.(Masslive) What is, perhaps, even more shocking is the candidacy of John Chapman, former Romney Official, who will be running for the 9th Congressional District in MA (Masslive). In a press release this morning, the NRCC noted:

WASHINGTON - Today, the National Republican Congressional Committee announced that John Chapman has been elevated to ‘On the Radar’ in the NRCC’s ‘Young Guns’ program. The program will help to provide candidates and their campaigns the tools they need to run effective, successful and winning campaigns against their Democratic opponents. Originally founded in the 2007-2008 election cycle by Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), Majority Whip Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Budget Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), the Young Guns program supports and mentors challenger and open-seat candidates in races across the country. Chapman is running in Massachusetts’ 9th Congressional District.

“I am confident that John Chapman will be a successful and dedicated member of this program and that he will continue to work hard to reach the crucial campaign benchmarks that have been established ahead of the 2014 elections,” said NRCC Chairman Greg Walden. “Massachusetts’ hardworking families deserve better than skyrocketing health care costs, financial instability and mountains of debt on their backs. I am certain that John Chapman will be a strong contender this election cycle.”

John Chapman's career has taken him from the Reagan White House, where he served as an aide in the Counsel's Office, to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, where he led investigations into Wall Street corruption and financial fraud, to the highest levels of Massachusetts state government, where he was an agency commissioner and undersecretary of economic development. John was also General Counsel for the Joslin Diabetes Center, an affiliate of Harvard Medical School, and a former partner at the law firm of Duane Morris LLP, where he advised corporate clients on enforcement and compliance issues, corporate governance and regulatory matters.

Throughout his entire career John has exhibited the personal qualities of leadership, determination, collaboration and diplomacy, which will serve him well as the 9th District's next Congressman

Normally, Massachusetts receives little to no support for any candidates running with an ® following their name, however, this year might be different, support from D.C. or no. Although a firm Reagan-Romney Republican (which is to say, possibly conflicted enough to be both moderate and conservative, thus appealing to all factions in the MA independent party (50 % unenrolleds registered.), one gets the sense that perhaps no place is a “safe spot for incumbents.

Which begs the question, if the NRCC is pegging one Candidate in the Bay State what next? One should see opposition candidates for almost every district, and unless there is a huge, get out the low information voter turnout by the Democrats – unlikely in a mid-term, then changes are in the wind. Not only in Massachusetts, but nationwide.

One might also point out that since the electorate is somewhat unhappy with a list of complaints, most prevalent is the economy, and the disconnect between Washington and the “rest of the nation”.

2014 may prove, in the long-run to be predictable, but one should not bet on it.