San Diego Mayor’s Race – Not the Unusual Outcome Noted – This is part for the Course to date

From the San Diego Union Tribune The San Diego Mayor’s race was won by a decisive victory – the winner, Republican Kevin Faulcone.(UT San Diego). This was despite the best efforts of Democrats and Unions using their usual model of negative attack ads and oodles of cash thrown at a progressive candidate(National Review with statistics).

Apparently, no one was watching the 2013 local races across the nation, where smaller cities experienced a somewhat hostile rebuke of incumbents – and this was regardless of Party. This will be especially interesting going into the 2014 mid-terms. Generally lower turnout – and a real antipathy towards anyone remotely spending long-terms in Washington.

In a word, if it can happen in Massachusetts, and in California, it can happen anywhere. If the mood of the electorate remains the same, 2014 will bring an entirely new Senate and Congress. Should the Democrats no longer control the Senate – there is zero chance they would control the House, then Harry Reid is removed as Majority Leader and finally the log-jam of partisan bickering will be done – Those Republican’s who have played to the left of the party – (compromise is one thing, rolling over is another0, will most likely find themselves replaced by someone who is more – liberty minded.

Also of note – the RNC may find itself butting heads with the Christian Right Wing, as they are finally awake, and looking at candidates that will meet their standards. Therefore, the largest voter turnout that never took place in 2012 will be enforce in 2016 – regardless of the hype surrounding any candidate that is brought forth from the Democrat side of the aisle.

Historically it would be the rebuttal to Obama in 2016 as it was to George W. Bush in 2008.

2014 Foreseeable Shift In Senate Power – Rand Paul – 2016 – Ted Cruz – Majority Speaker – Opinion

2014 should see a shift in power in both the House and the Senate, given 2013 local races and the anti-incumbency that drove incumbents out of office. Politico lists the 12 most vulnerable Democrat Seats here, and they are not far off the mark, figure 8 of the 12 are in any serious jeopardy. On both sides, the Progressive and Tea Party Factions will be pushing candidates that will in based on the aforementioned angst of the voter against anything Washington – throwing the baby out with the bathwater in some cases.

Although 2014 options are on the table – one who is suggested to run for the Presidency – but does not seem to be avidly pushing that front – is one Ted Cruz – he’s fighting in the trenches, and appears more concerned about being the point man for the base – against the Democrats – specifically the President and Harry Reid. CBS’s Bob Schieffer attempted to corner him this weekend, and failed – the transcript here is telling, in that Cruz shifts from a Presidential run to his usual for the people – which given the shift in power that is likely, Cruz would be a perfect replacement for Harry Reid. – One would have to have the support of one’s peers, however, once the primary dust settles, that may not be a problem on the GOP side.

As to 2016, Rand Paul (R-KY) is the most probable candidate to run at this point, and has been telling it like it is –most notably pointing out some disturbing facts about the alleged War on Women – going so far, The Daily News reports, as to suggest Bill Clinton’s relationship with a young intern was – predatory. He’s a favorite among those who are, again, looking for a different flavor other than – Republican and/or Democrat – he’s not seen as a strict Republican.

The chess board is open, there are few pawns and knights on the board as of yet, but there is plenty of time to speculate and look to the disillusioned low information voter to lead the charge.

Dem Dilemma – 2014 Looms with Obama Care (Affordable Health Care Act) – 15 Senate Seats that May be Lost before the Campaigns begin.

Image: Woman in CA who has lost insurance policy – she can no longer keep her insurance and must choose between a primary care provider and/or the Cancer doctors who can keep her alive Full story HERE at New York Daily News

As the nation begins to realize that some insurance carriers are dropping coverage, and coverage that is not substandard, and that the administration and those in the know (Congress/Senate) were aware this would take plan 3 years ago, nervous Democrats are reaching out to the White House for reassurance that all will be well – the main focus being the website – rather than a host of other issues from Obama Care plans that will lack comprehensive coverage of both doctors and/or hospitals one might currently use, or the 93,000,000 people who may be out of an insurance policy and forced into the exchanges. (Los Angeles Times).

It is not those Democrats alone who appear to be in a bit of a pickle, as both the President’s and the Congresses approval ratings are sinking faster than the Titanic, anyone who supported or signed onto the bill (See Moderate Republican) are most likely going to lose their jobs as the public becomes more aware of the fiasco that is – Obama Care (or Romney Care on steroids). An anti-incumbency sentiment is growing at a rapid rate according to ABC News reporting on polling by (Poll data here) by ABC/Washington Post released on October 22.

One can imagine that since that date, that sentiment has grown. Consider the VA Governor’s race, where the Democrat, Terry McAuliffe with a double digit lead, ended up winning in a squeaker after help on the trail from Obama and Biden. The National RNC, of course, were not about to help a “Tea Party Candidate” and came up a day late and several dollars short – otherwise, Cuccinelli would be the Govenor of Virginia today.

Elsewhere in City and State Elections, Incumbents lost regardless of Political Party (two parties in total – Republican and Democrat) – it was not an across the board sweep – but there will be new mayors in Western Massachusetts, regardless of how “popular” an individual may have been or how “competent” (See Results here at Masslive.com). Generally, in Western Massachusetts, one might see the Democrats win hands down regardless of a race, or on the local level, political affiliation is not that critical, and therefore, it’s more about being familiar with the “name” – enter the voter who is “mad as hell” and already talking about and acutely aware of 2014 and 2016.

Massachusetts is not the rest of the nation, however, as sold blue and reliable as it is, this also played out across nearby states.

Now, the President’s low approval ratings (39) are being blamed (one might think sarcastically) on Congress suggesting the shut down, etc. and Congresses low approval was somehow engineered by the Republicans (also in the single digit)who will certainly win re-election and control of the house.. One might argue that those Republicans, especially in the Senate, are in as much trouble as the Democrats running to the White House for Reassurance from a President who lied outright to the public upwards to 30 times regarding the ability to keep one’s insurance policy. Seriously, these are supposed to be smart people in the Senate.

One who is politically in tune to the changes in sentiment taking place on the ground (including the “low-information” voter) understands there are opportunities at hand for a serious shift in the political landscape of both major parties.

Ted Cruz will be appearing on the tonight show on the 8th of November, set the dvr, or you will miss the new face of political think and possibly with a major upset in 2014 should Obama care not be revised dramatically (allowing individuals to purchase insurance from private carriers across state lines, with no mandatory insurance purchases required – two suggestions) – You might be seeing the next Senate Majority Leader or as some who hope the next President of the USA.

Heading into the Mid-Terms, 2013 City and State Elections send confusing signals to those that rely on polling and national Political Parties. – The rise of the Anti-Incumbent Voter

There is an interesting article in the Los Angeles Times this morning worthy of a read - 'Battle is not over' after a close Virginia governor's race” speaks to the very close call between two opposing ideologies, one Democrat and one Tea Party – The Republican Candidate – was, in reality, Tea Party, and nothing made that more clear than the National GOP jumping in far too late in the game, with little cash to back up the campaign, in a last effort ditch to save “face” (See Red State) – Yet with no support, (from the RNC) this Tea Party insurgent came within a hair’s breath of winning the Governors seat, and not against any candidate, but against, a long entrenched political hack, who was heavily financed, and included support of the President and Vice President – as a Democrat, that win translates into a victory, but…not a resounding victory. Cuccinelli did what he could, but one can bet the house that future races similar in nature will see little asking or accepting of help in any form of the national GOP.

Things to consider regarding this national race: Tea Party Candidate is not saying he is not a Tea Party Candidate – in Virginia which is a purple state at best, not red/not blue – and he performed well, and possibly without the “help” of the national GOP would have won outright.

It was a race that both men ran as non-incumbents, another plus for McAuliffe. There are many former mayors this morning, as well as City Councilors and so on, and that was because they were – the incumbent. It would behoove anyone who is even remotely thinking of a run in the mid-terms or 2016 to distance themselves from major parties – politely – or if they do run, admit they are doing it for the right reason, to get their help – but again, does anyone really want the help of those who can’t get one elected, unless by default (See McAuliffe).

On the local level, those of us watching popular Democrat Mayors of larger Massachusetts cities, lose, outright, not because they did not perform well, but because they were seen as an incumbent – bring in Republican mayors, something unthinkable – there was the reverse as well, where Democrats upset Republicans’ – the mood – throw out anyone who was an incumbent, unless of course, one had no choice!

If either major party has any smarts, they might want to analyze these local election – it’s telling – and apparently throwing millions and presidents at a race, buys one a nail biter – This looks like a change o guard in 2014. – Those voters did not care which party got the boot – they were booting both.

As to Chris Christie’s return to the Governor’s office in New Jersey-= yes, that was a given, he is popular in NJ primarily because he can claim to be a Republican, but at the same time, act like a Democrat – he’s either a hybrid or disingenuous – but its Jersey Politics. As to the GOP push for Christie as a Presidential Candidate – if one put him up against, Elizabeth (Hiawatha) Warren, a single term Senate Seat warmer, in the mold of Barack Obama, she would win.

Therefore, the Patriots in this nation need to learn how to outsmart those bozo’s at the RNC and the DNC, and take it to the people.

Just a thought