Massachusetts Governor’s Race 2010 Poll - Patrick: 29% Believe He Should Be Re-Elected – Mihos Beats Baker in Republican Primary (Again) – Analysis

Mihos-Patrick Matchup likely 2010 according to Recent Polls

A newly releasedpoll (marginal’s here) by Suffolk University is accompanied by the headline: “Patrick Leads Opponents Despite Negative Ratings”, however, the conclusion is a bit premature given the early nature of the race (primary is not set until Tuesday, September 14th, 2010), and the overall disapproval of the Governor’s job performance to date in that same poll.

In reviewing the marginals, the University, once again, polls 8% on campus, with the balance of the geographic areas of Massachusetts being either over represented or underrepresented (county by county census data) The sample of registered voters, once again, under represents the “unenrolled” – an ever growing portion of the electorate – currently approximately at 51% (based on Massachusetts Secretary of State Voter Registration as of 2008). Therefore, the poll, for all intents and purposes, is more entertainment at this juncture.

The Govenor, who only 29% of those polled believe should retain his seat, appears to have unusually high favorability ratings – 42% favorable/45% unfavorable and 11% undecided (1% never heard of him). Tim Cahill, Democrat turned Independent, 35% favorable, 12% unfavorable, 25% Undecided, 18% never heard of him. Republican, Charlie Baker, and fares poorly overall, 45% never heard of Baker, of those who have, 15% favorable, 11% unfavorable and 30% are undecided. The one populist candidate, running as a Republican, is Christy Mihos, 27% favorable, 23% unfavorable, 29% undecided, and 22% of those polled never heard of him.

Given this scenario and the fact that independents vote in the Massachusetts Primary (given enough interest in a given race, and one must understand that there is a great interest in the race), even among non-political junkies: Mihos would trounce Baker in the primary, leaving a three way race between Cahill, Mihos and the Incumbent, Patrick. Historically, the independent candidate does not fare well in Massachusetts, Mihos understands this quite well, running in 2006 in a three way match-up between Patrick and Kerry Healy, Mihos took 3% of the vote – Healy, weakened by the Republican brand, negative campaign ads, and lack of grassroots support, lost by over 21% To those in the state that blame Mihos for Healy’s loss, a basic math review may be in order.

Therefore, a race between Mihos and Patrick is likely – with Patrick most definitely (according to this poll) taking a loss. This is based on the pivotal question and result: Does Patrick deserve to be re-elected: a measly 29% of those polled (included 8% of university students/professors) believe that he does.

One has to understand that some polls are designed and commissioned in order to achieve results, which may be given to the press, which then broadcasts the “approved results”; never bothering to investigate the marginal’s where the real story lays. One of the most amusing aspects of this poll is a question: “Do you favor the Commonwealth of Massachusetts adding a recall vote where
citizens could remove an elected official when he or she is underperforming?” – the results: 54% yes, 38% no (the percentage of Democrats polled), with only 8% undecided on this issue. If that were, in fact, available to the state’s electorate, one would bet the house that many of those sitting on Beacon Hill would find themselves out on the street.

However, caution is in order, as again, it is still early in the season, with a primary almost a year away – but one can predict, given previous polls by Suffolk (marginals here) that the scenario of a Patrick /Mihos matchup would result.

As New Jersey Goes – So Goes the Nation – Gubernatorial Race: Christi Maintains Poll Leads Despite Best Efforts of Media and DNC - Analysis

John Corzine with Barack Obama, Corzine Trailing Despite Bombs Thrown at Republican Opponent

A report fromPolitico this morning, suggests that despite the best efforts of embattled New Jersey Governor, Democrat Jon Corzine and the general media, Republican challenger, Chris Christie continues to maintain a sizable lead in the polls. The premise of the article, “Christie Holds Lead Despite Bad News”, is that Corzine remains behind, even though several allegedly damaging revelations about Christie have come to light. These include: failing to disclose a loan made in 2007 to a colleague (while employed at the U.S. Attorney’s office in NJ, racking up several parking tickets, and the kicker: talking to Karl Rove about the possibility of running for Governor while still a U.S. attorney. Based on these “crimes and misdemeanors”, Christie is a saint compared to the bevy of issues facing high profile incumbent Democrats, that, although underreported, have made national news. From Chris Dodd’s Mortgage Issues, which, ethics complaints brought in the Senate, have apparently disappeared due to his peers judgment and dismissal, to the former Louisiana Democrat, Congressman William Jefferson of cash in the freezer fame, to a host of characters, most recently, Obama nominees for cabinet positions who had issues of tax returns.

Parking Tickets? Is that all you’ve got?

As the media has excused almost every indiscretion by anyone remotely connected to a particular party of the years; attempting to point a finger for a similar or lesser issue, is not going to fly with John Q. Public – they have become: immune. Additionally, there may be other “bombs” that worked in the past that will no longer hold water with the all-important Independent Voters, chief amongst them in the charge: “Right Wing Republican”. This has developed most recently due to those “Health Care Town Hall Informational Sessions” where average citizens, many of whom are independents, Libertarians, and even Democrats, have been characterized by the administration, high profile members of Congress and the media as “mobs, Republican’s and paid for by Conservative Groups”. Apparently, those who were none of the above began to see the light in respect to the media’s inability to separate itself from news versus personal ideology of the various editors, producers, journalist and anchors.

Therefore, as all politicians, regardless of party, and apparently indiscretions, are now on a level playing field, what on earth will they campaign on? Simple Answer: The issues that are currently favored by the majority of the public, some of which are not in concert with the current Party in Power. Stimulus spending and Government run entities and control come to mind, in a word, the economy and sticking to the U.S. Constitution are leading factors among, amazingly, regular citizens who vote, and will, therefore, dictate how they vote. The politician, regardless of party, (but face it, most often a Conservative Republican or Libertarian), will do well in the 2009 and 2010 gubernatorial, U.S. House or Representative and Senate races.

The Polls: Looking at the data from Real Clear Politics, one finds that out of all 2009 matchups, Republicans are currently leading across the board. In those 2010 matchups being polled, Republican’s lead in early polling, with exceptions being polls conducted by the Daily Kos (no surprise there), and the states of Ohio and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania (current match-ups, including primaries) currently favoring the incumbent or Democrat running. That said, even Liberal Massachusetts, with incumbent Deval Patrick, (advisor and mentor David Axelrod, who is currently the advisor to Barack Obama), the Republican Candidate, Christie Mihos, is leading Patrick in the polls.

Therefore, the age of dismissing indiscretions for one, while playing up the indiscretions of the other, may be at an end – It may now be incumbent upon politicians, regardless of party affiliation and the media, to actually let the voting public know where they actually stand and not make campaign promises, based upon what may be popular, while being either inept or unable to make those promises happen fast enough for the “American Idol” voting block. It’s one thing to be a Rock Star, or run on the coat tails of a Rock Star, but one must realize that in America, Fame is fleeting, and once the bloom if off the proverbial rose, substance is what the voters will demand. If it cannot be delivered, they will go elsewhere, no matter how hard the media pushes, or the ads attack, the public now wants to know where a particular politician stands on issues, and should that politicians not fulfill his or her promised ideology, they will, undoubtedly, be out of a job.