2012 Update – The Natural Order in Campaigns – Gingrich as the Non-GOP Establishment Candidate - Obama Campaign Hubris In the Face of the Inevitable

Gingrich, Paul and Romney - The Nominating Process Begins in Four Weeks - image cnn.com


It goes without saying that a political campaign, much like a beauty pageant, is nothing more or nothing less than a contest, albeit one of immense import. The fact is that candidates in a primary must compete against one another for the top slot and that will evoke mud-slinging in the hopes of gaining points, especially as there are only weeks left before the primaries and caucuses begin. Therefore, one will find that lower tier and top tier candidates will release ads “knocking” one another, or if one candidate is in the lead, knocking one only. These advertisements and press releases, becoming more frequent, sound more desperate than honest – specifically as the aforementioned become more shrill and or “informative” as the time to vote draws nearer. (See: ”Game-Iowa GOP Attacks Target Gingrich” (Yahoo News) . It’s a game that is as old as the nominating process, and one can anticipate much the same in a national election (as the mud-slinging was just as, if not more, egregious when there were only thirteen states).

However, if the establishment political class (those who are in government) and a media hostile to one political ideology and/or party, attempt to knock a front-runner this close to the beginning of the voting process, one can bet the House (and possibly the Senate) that there is good reason – that individual is most likely not going to “play ball” with those entrenched, those elite, and those who would crown a “king” over allowing the “masses” to decide whom they felt would best lead the nation forward. It is obvious that the anti-establishment candidate is one Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, the current GOP front-runner, and the individual preferred by the political class is one Mitt Romney, the former one-term Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts who has in recent weeks received endorsements from U.S. Senators, the Bush Family, Dan Quayle (former President H.W. Bush’s, Vice President), numerous pundits and the Fox News Network (which may explain the sudden surge in audience share that CNN is experiencing.)

In an AP article via the Boston Globe “Gingrich Surge Unnerves Some Republican Lawmakers” one is under the impression that Gingrich’s Peers of twenty-odd years ago (that is an established politician – or entrenched.) are horrified at the prospect of Gingrich as leader of the Free World, and notwithstanding, leader of the Republican Party. These few politicians (the five that are named), are not all in the Congress, but in the Senate where they would not have worked quit as closely with Gingrich over his entire career. They point to personal issues, and make statements that are vague or not particularly germane (given the time Gingrich has been out of the Congress) but nevertheless demeaning - and to a man they all support Mitt Romney. As one reads the second page, however, one runs into a similar group - this one a bit more pragmatic; recalling a different Gingrich, one who was focused, one who broke Gridlock. That is the Gingrich the political class fears – one who will get the job done, whether it fits their agenda or no.

In an email from the Romney Campaign, both Mitt Romney and former Governor of New Hampshire John Sununu and Senator Jim Talent will hold a press conference call outlining the many issues those three might have with Newt Gingrich’s “record”. That record is available online at The Library of Congress, and anyone can go back through Newt Gingrich’s entire career to find – baseless allegations being made by those who are in a political campaign.

It is interesting that there is little mention of the fact that the Massachusetts Secretary of State is making available correspondence from Mitt Romney’s time in office. These are hard copy documents, as the then, Romney Gubernatorial staff, purchased Commonwealth Computers and summarily wiped all email correspondence from the hard-drives (see article:here>). This is the type of politics that those living in the 16th and 17th century would find somewhat average, a bit of backstabbing, fabrication and business as usual.

It is for Gingrich, if he is to continue to be the front-runner, to either ignore or answer – to date, he has focused more on policy rather than political attacks on his record dating back two decades. What voters need to ask themselves, and one can believe they may have already done so given the polls, is “Can man (or woman) truly change their minds on an issue in twenty years?” The answer is obvious: anyone with an once of common sense understands that human nature and age and the factors of changes in society, advances in science and technology, allows individuals to change their minds, religion and even political affiliation. Changing one’s mind over the course of two decades is, therefore, not unusual. What is unusual is a change of heart and mind over a period of a year, or a month – that would be someone who could be categorized as a political opportunist.

What is perhaps the most amusing take on the rise of Gingrich and Romney as "underdog" comes from the New York Times in concert with the Obama Campaign Manger, David Axelrod. Axelrod seems to believe that the Democrats are somehow able to influence the Republican Race. That is, of course, somewhat possible (See Mitt Romney accusing Deval Patrick for leaking Romney’s staff erasing their computers contents to the Boston Globe as “politically motivated”.) Then again, with a historically low approval rating, four weeks before the primary and caucus season begins, the Presidents’ campaign should be doing their best to undercut the opposition, down to the last candidate, at the lowest level. The odds are not exactly in their favor, and it is David Axelrod’s job to say the “darndest things”.

What history has proven is a man in last place in any major political party primary, may end up being the winner - that a party will have a clear winner at a nominating Convention and choose to use a method involving “Super Delegates” (those of the political class), to choose another candidate (One who would more easily “fit” what the political “party leaders” desired, rather than say, nominate the woman who actually won the nomination). It is certain that poll numbers can and do change, and that the fortunes of a candidate do not necessarily ride on the polls (unless they have a 20 point advantage four weeks from the actual primary or caucus - then one can make a fairly safe bet on the front-runner). The aforementioned are historical and statistical facts. As we round the corner of December, with two debates scheduled for the GOP, (the next on the 12th of December (Saturday) on ABC at 8:00 Eastern, in Iowa and sponsored by the Des Moines Press Register) it will be those debates and the candidates performances that will reach the millions who will eventually decide who has the mettle to lead. It is part and parcel of the process - it is what makes these United States such an amazing country in which to reside as a citizen. This because, a “ruling political class” can be pushed, and reformed by the simple act of voting, and a leader can emerge by the will of the people, rather than by the will of a “class” pushing one candidate over another. (Of course, as a feminist, one is compelled to mention one more time, that one example where the people’s choice did not materialize, that of the 2008 Democrat Convention).

Move over Gloria Allred, Cain hires Top Legal Gun – Specialty - Defamation and Libel – On Allegations – Does The Electorate Care? Or Even Know?

Herman Cain wear that Cowboy Hat well (compared to some other politicians - Clint Eastwood Approved GOP Presidential Candidate, Herman Cain

A Reuters article released yesterday and getting little play in the media” Cain defamation lawyer hired to monitor accusations” should have those who would “lynch” Cain in the Court of Public Opinion thinking twice. Cain, throughout his career (which is well documented) and in personal tomes (he’s written a few books) has prided himself on image, specifically that of a man of integrity and one who values his family, specifically his wife, Gloria and their children. Therefore, it is not surprising that this man, who may be a political novice, and may have not pleased the media by the manner in which his political team responded to the allegations of sexual harassment brought by two anonymous and two not-so-anonymous but dubious characters, has hired one of the top layers who would have the wherewithal to get to the so-called bottom of this, determine if there was any intent to slander his client (Cain) and then bring a screaming civil suit.

Frankly, when a man of character is impinged upon, even if a suit took years, and there was sufficient proof that these allegations were patently false, then these women had better find the means to pay damages. The media and those who would see either Cain’s campaign derailed by false allegations/and or those would be more interested in keeping Cain in the spotlight over false allegations, while something else of political import might be taking place (i.e. taking the heat off someone in a position of power – care to guess?) would be responsible for the pickle these ladies will find themselves.

If they are false allegations, and they are brought to court (and it won’t matter the time-frame as far as this is concerned) the smart money would be on a slew of retractions, hazy memory and avoidance of the court, in order to protect oneself from perjury. Good for Cain, he is not only standing up publicly denying the allegations as patently false, the man is being smart – proactive – taking the steps to insure that he, or any other candidate for that matter, will not face baseless allegations for political purposes – again. He has taken the moral high road.

Putting aside that Cain’s actions to date, are to maintain his stellar reputation, does the general public really care, and or do they even know for that matter that allegations have been made?

Dick Morris, who came to the public arena after working diligently to reelect one Bill Clinton, (not once, but several times, from the Governor’s office in Arkansas to the Presidency) and who understands which way the wind blows with polls (such as polls are) also spoke to the Cain allegations in an article on his website www.dickmorris.com

“I learned something important from my polling in the Lewinsky scandal. While the political world and the media were focused on the narrow question of who was right, Clinton or Special Prosecutor Kenneth Starr, most voters opted for a third choice: "We don't care. We don't want to hear more about this. This is no way to run a government or choose a president." Some resented the public discussion of oral sex, noting that their children were watching. They didn't want to hear it.

So it is with the accusations against Herman Cain. We are mired in the worst economic condition in eighty years and will not tolerate more talk about who invited whom up to their room and for what. We don't care….”

Mr. Morris could have taken that a few steps further, only those who are heavily vested in the current process of debate and the general election have even taken notice. When looking at the total population of those who watch the GOP debates, as well as read a newspaper or watch even their local news (past the first 5 minutes when they get a brief synopsis of what took place), or national coverage, it is minuscule in comparison to the rest of the voting public. Take this little test: ask a group of voters (or voter aged individuals) that are not as “avid” a political junkie as oneself might be – and one will find that perhaps one of the ten is even aware of “something they might have heard about Herman Cain”, but cannot remember what it was, and if they have seen Cain, they are, this is priceless, not sure which party he may represent – if they even know who he is – five in ten have no idea. The kicker, making Dick Morris so very right, when told about allegations against Cain, the reaction is the same, so?

Granted this is coming from Massachusetts, however, Cain may owe Bill Clinton a debt of gratitude. Instead of Clinton coming off as a cad (and he did) he came off as some sort of hero, especially to the younger generation, and since the economy was good, well, the rest of his shenanigans did not matter.

Now, Cain is viewed as a novice politician who has not been in Government (huge plus), to those who know of him, yet may not know (because they do not read, nor listen to a news organization due to plain old apathy and times constraints, or mistrust of the media) are hard-pressed to believe the allegations. He may lose a few points in the polls to those conservatives who still follow the hang them in the court of public opinion regardless of the facts, in order to maintain the pristine appearance of the GOP (that ship has sailed, but they are quite unaware). Whoever though this would hurt Cain, may have overplayed a hand or two, in the long run – this primary and the general will be won by those who are savvy enough to do two things. Run opposition ads that are to the point, humorous and on message, without going negative. Advertising that is upbeat and pro job growth, and yes, Reaganesque, will win the day – the ads, even those ads from PACS that candidates can’t control, which go strongly negative, and even perhaps bring up allegations of sexual misconduct, will destroy that candidate – Cain, is the perfect candidate, because he has no dubious government record to defend, however, he has a personal record, and a corporate record which are exemplary – plus a compelling life story.

Regardless of who is the eventual nominee, (there are as of today, in this mind, two possibilities only – Gingrich/Cain as time has run out). Gingrich, to make a point, will be in the exact position as Cain, he has been away from government long enough, to make that distinction and any “dirt” that can be thrown, will be largely ignored (Thank you Bill Clinton), and one can see this becoming a two man race, the day after super Tuesday. The individual, who wins South Carolina, will be the front-runner and most likely stay the front runner, becoming the eventual nominee of the party.


Well Matched Idea Mean who Could Move Mountains and Drive the Beltway Pundits, and GOP Central (and the Obama Team)into a tizzy

Cain and or Gingrich will drive the establishment GOP and the Beltway Pundits into a tizzy (yet another reason one might get attached to either one of these candidates. These two in particular, have a quality that allows for both independents and Democrats, and Tea Party and yes, Republican’s without the proverbial stick up their back (those who cast stones as they are so bloody perfect), to enthusiastically cast a vote for either of these men.
A little historical perspective on the Obama administrations sudden upswing: Although small inroads into improvement in the economy can be seen at this point, the same happened during the final morns of 1979 under the Carter administration, then the bottom fell out, inflation rose, and we were dealing with Iran, in a most passive way – (Iranian ships are said to be in or nearing U.S. international waters (or 14 miles off the coast) – Carter’s job approval ratings were much lower than Obama’s are now, however, Obama, with the exception of a few states, has yet to climb over 50%, staying steady in multiple polls as the man who can be beaten. Should inflation continue to rise, and the summer of 2012 be as disparaging as the past three years have been, then without a third party candidate who is pulled out of David Axelrod’s hat, Obama would be unelectable. Cain and both Gingrich (known by those who have heard him speak, but are not political junkies as: the old smart guy), stand much to gain in that scenario.

The only thing that upset this scenario would be if the Republican Party decided, at its convention, to go to the Super Delegate model (those are not delegates per say, but Party loyalist, Senators, Congressmen) – this happened in 2008, when Hillary Clinton clearly had the popular vote, yet, once at the Convection, the Democrats when to the Super Delegate option, threw out the popular vote, and nominated one Barack Obama (stealing a phrase from Cain: Princess Nancy and her daughter cast the last two votes necessary to insure Obama’s candidacy). One would suggest that this type of action on the part of the GOP would, have serious ramifications for the party and for the nation.

Update Chicago: Selective Memory and Outright Lies Dominate Blagojevich Trial - Fear and Loathing In DC

As the Blagojevich Trial Continues: The Sun Times is reporting on two separate incidents involving Jesse Jackson, Jr., and Gerry Kozel, a contractor with ties to the Chicago Political Machine. First, Kozel, who is under immunity from prosecution, admitted that he lied to FBI investigators who came to his home:

When the FBI showed up at Krozel's home in the early morning of Dec. 9, 2008, Goldstein noted, Krozel told them he did not feel pressured and that there was no connection between the fund-raising request and the tollway project.
"You are telling your story, but it's a different story than you told on Dec. 9, 2008," Goldstein said, as the witness grew increasingly flustered. "You lied."
Krozel rubbed his forehead and asked to have questions "rephrased" before delving into an emotional explanation: When the FBI showed up, he had been dressing his handicapped wife and was "terrified" that he was going to be arrested and taken away.
"She cannot talk, she cannot write, she loses her balance," the 70-year-old exclaimed from the stand. "I just wanted to get the FBI out of my house."

Jesse Jackson Jr. and his insistence that he had never contacted nor been involved in a pay-to-play for Obama’s vacant Senate Seat has been debunked.

Federal prosecutors said Wednesday for the first time that U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. attended a meeting in 2008 at which $1 million in fund-raising for Rod Blagojevich was discussed in exchange for Jackson's own Senate seat appointment.
The meeting described by prosecutors was not previously disclosed by Jackson.

Over at Politico the Headline Blares “Rod Blagojevich trial could singe White House” The piece goes on to detail some of the finer points of the trial so far, specifically as regards Obama sending his Union lackey, Tom Balanoff, to discuss the Senate Seat appointment with Blagojevich. Defense lawyers are about to roll out witnesses, and have successfully subpoenaed Rham Emmanuel and Valerie Jarret, however, a judge ruled that Obama did not have to appear.

That said damage, according to Politico, has been minimal due to the multitude of issues catching the nation’s attention at the movement. From the Oil Spill in the Gulf, Judicial Appointments, ET al, have kept the national limelight off the case, but for how long? With Blagojevich’s Defense Team readying for several weeks of testimony and witnesses who have long ties to the Obama administration and Chicago Politics, chief among them, David Axelrod, who engineered both Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts and Barak Obama’s elections.

Is the White House Concerned? According to Politico – yes:

Said one aide to a top Illinois elected official: “People may be breathing easier, ‘cause there’s been no major revelations really connecting Obama or Rahm to this guy. But you never know what the long-term damage will be. The Obama people may be playing it cool, but trust me, they’re plenty worried.”

A few things to consider coming out of the trail in the next few weeks: Should the trial turn national (and it has begun) especially in August, with only 3 months until the general election in November, the impact of the aspersions cast on the administration, regardless of merit, will stick. Additionally, should Obama be tied to the pay-to-play scheme in his home state of Illinois, with allegations of the same in Congressional district races in both Pennsylvania and Colorado (and at this point, there may be others yet to come forward), Congressional Investigations cannot be far behind. Although Impeachment proceedings appear unlikely, but not improbable, the collective damage to the Administration to date, coupled with an aura of Politics gone dirty, will put whoever runs for the White House (be it Hillary Clinton, Palin, Romney, or, more likely the candidate we have not met) in the driver’s seat for 2012. If Obama, who expertly channels Jimmy Carter, was doomed to be a one-term President, then this trial will, in all likelihood, play a part in ensuring that he faces early retirement.

Gallop Voter Enthusiasm Trends – Republicans Trend Highest In History of Pollster – Surpass 1994 Midterms by 17 Points - Analysis

A newly released Gallop survey on Voter Enthusiasm shows Republicans going into the mid-term elections with an historic 28 point lead in Voter Enthusiasm. The survey, which has been conducted by Gallop since the 1994 mid-terms, includes both major political parties and Independent “leaners”. Republicans scored a 59% enthusiasm versus a 44% enthusiasm by Democrats and Democrat Leaning Independents, compared to 2006, where Democrat Enthusiasm was at 50% versus a 40% score for Republicans. In 1994, when Republicans took control of both houses during a mid-term election, the split was even less pronounced – with Republican’s scoring 42% versus 32% for Democrats.

Gallops analysis cautions that conditions can change prior to the election, as in 1998, when the Democrats picked up seats and points in the survey just prior to the midterms, however, it is also noted that this scenario is unlikely.
Turnout being the key to any given election, the element of enthusiasm among voters is critical to a party’s gains or losses, and in light of recent gains in special elections for Republicans, in consistently Democrat States with a significant disparity in advantage for Democrats.

For example, the New Jersey Governors race and the Massachusetts Senate Race held earlier this year, were early indicators of the mood of the electorate. Although Democrats maintained seats in several Congressional districts, it was not without special circumstances that allowed the gain. The New York 23rd, for example, had a three way split, with Doug Hoffman, the New York Conservative Party candidate, a Republican Candidate that leaned left, and eventually resigned days before the race, throwing an endorsement to the Democrat, Bill Owens, who eventually won by absentee ballot In the Pennsylvania 12th, the Democrat, Mark Critz, ran as far to the right as possible, and in the district, distanced himself from the administration in order to gain the advantage.

The Massachusetts factor:

Although always knows as the Bluest State given the fact that both state and federal elected officials have, for decades, been Democrats, Massachusetts has seen significant political changes beginning in 2009. There are unprecedented numbers of Republican candidates for both state and federal offices, forcing primaries, which is not the norm. The Congressional Delegation from Massachusetts, which is controlled by the Democrats, has multiple challengers to the incumbent. An estimated 178 Republicans are running for office in a State where most pundits continue to nay say any advantage based on voter trends from 2008. That said, when looking at the voter trends from the January 19th, Brown-Coakely special election, one can see where, regardless of district and makeup - there are some significant changes taking place in the Commonwealth. Also significant is the fact that many of those running had made this decision prior to Brown announcing his candidacy for the open Senate Seat.

As Massachusetts was primarily used as a testing ground for the 2008 election of Barak Obama (See David Axelrod and his use of Deval Patrick (source: commentary 2007 at mybaracckobama.com see Screenshot), it goes without saying that having had a virtual preview of “coming attractions”, should the level of enthusiasm in Massachusetts (for national candidates) be any indicator and/or have been exported nationwide (similar to Deval Patrick, i.e. Barack Obama) , the Gallop Enthusiasms tracking should remain even or even increase prior to the election. With the following factors: Unemployment claims continue to rise, a failed stimulus, unprecedented growth of government, several scandal, specifically paying candidates to stay out of races, and/or paying for Senate Seats, the unpopular Health Care Reform Bill, the situation in the Gulf, which is on day 60 something, with a lack of command from the oval office (see MSNBC).


Axelrod on Deval Patricka and Barack Obama 2007

In the case of 2010 and 2012 for that matter, Axelrod may want to go back to journalism, assuming of course, the industry still has a stomach for one-party reporting, and finally figures out that the Internet is not the enemy, rather, the perception of the public accounts for the massive decline in subscriptions.

The Nation Wakes Up - While ABC News and AP Rip Gibbs over Obama Miniscule Budget Cuts – Freedom Works Plans September 12 March on Washington

The Capital - image CNN

On Monday during the White House Press Briefing Robert Gibbs dodged questions from AP Reporter Jennifer Loven and ABC’s White House Correspondent, Jack Tapper. A Video of the exchange is available at Real Clear Politics. At issue, the $100 Million in budget cuts that Barack Obama requested from his Cabinet - (Granted he said it was just a “drop in the bucket) – a transcript of the exchange:

JENNIFER LOVEN, AP: The $100 million target figure that the president talked about today with the Cabinet; can you explain why so small? I know he talked about -- you know, you add up 100 million and 100 million, and eventually, you get somewhere, but it would take an awfully long time to add up hundred million (inaudible) in the deficit. Why not target a bigger number?

GIBBS: (Smiling) Well, I think only in Washington, D.C. is a hundred million dollars...

LOVEN: The deficit's very large. It's not a joke.

GIBBS: No, I'm...

LOVEN: The deficit's giant. $100 million really is only a step.

GIBBS: But no joke.

LOVEN: You sound like you're joking about it, but it's not funny.

GIBBS: I'm not making jokes about it. I'm being completely sincere that only in Washington, D.C. is $100 million not a lot of money. It is where I'm from. It is where I grew up. And I think it is for hundreds of millions of Americans.

LOVEN: The point is it's not a very big portion of the deficit.

TAPPER: You were talking about an appropriations bill a few weeks ago about $8 billion being minuscule -- $8 billion in earmarks. We were talking about that and you said that that...

GIBBS: Well, in terms of -- in...(CROSSTALK)

TAPPER: ...$100 million is a lot but $8 billion is small?

In the grand scheme of things, with the earmarks included in this budget in the billions, Obama should be telling those members of Congress and the Senate to start eliminating earmarks post-haste. A primary example would be Senator Diane Feinstein (CA-D), requested $25 billion for a firm that awarded a contract to her husband. It’s only money, taxpayers money, and the taxpayers are fed up with both parties abuse of the public trust – from bumbling Barney Frank (D-MA) and Mortgage Mogul Chris Dodd’s (D-CT) mismanagement of financials, to Harry Reid’s high speed train from Vegas to Disney; the never ending list of earmarks reads like a monopoly game run amok.
The Tea Party’s held across the country on April 15th, may have given, Obama advisor and Political Kingmaker (Duval Patrick Governor (D-MA) and Barack Obama), David Axelrod the “hebbie jebbies” –

Axelrod was asked on CBS's "Face the Nation" about the "spreading and very public disaffection" with the president's fiscal policies seen at the "Tea Party" rallies around the country last week.
"I think any time you have severe economic conditions there is always an element of disaffection that can mutate into something that's unhealthy," Axelrod said.

One has to wonder how Mr. Axelrod, and his friends at what has become known as MSDNCby conservatives, will react when the Tax Day Tea Party takes to the road in a planned March on Washington DC on September 12. (suggested – road trip) Permits have been secured, and this grassroots organization which managed to mobilize an estimated 800,000 non-violent protesters on April 15th, will send another message to Washington regarding fiscal responsibility, or the lack thereof. Freedom Works, a Washington based Conservative Think Tax, has an outstanding Board of Directors, including Steve Forbes of Forbes Magazine and former House Majority Leader, Dick Armey. There is a link on the website homepage which allows one to sign-up for the March in September (suggested). It might be interesting to see the next Janet Napolitano Homeland Security Missive, naming publishers, investors, and former House Speakers as possible domestic terrorist, right along with those dangerous pro-life Christians.

A side note: The Tax Day Tea Party’s that were held across the nation were organized by several groups, Freedom Works being one of the most prevalent sponsors. The events were bi-partisan and included individuals from all parties. For enthusiastic coverage of the Chicago Tea Party Event visit; Hillbuzz.org, a moderate Democrat blog.