Harry Reid in the Hot Seat – 2010 Election – Shades of Tom Daschle - Maybe

Harry Reid (D-NV), current Senate Majority Leader, is concerned that the RNC may actually try to dethrone him in 2010. In a recent Las Vegas Review Journal article, Reid noted he is trying to raise a paltry $50,000 by midnight,December 31 – he currently has $2,750,000 in elections funds, most of the money coming from the gaming industry. This amount of cash on hand is a small sum to wage a “war” should the RNC launch a serious attack. Compared to John Kerry (D-MA), who recently won re-election, and is in “safe” state for Democrats - he has a decent $4,260,597 on hand with top donors: University of California, Harvard, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.

Kerry and Reid are powerful Democrats, however, Kerry enjoys the “myth of Massachusetts”, whereby the RNC believes that the state is a lost cause (without taking into account the 51% of voters who identify themselves as unenrolled.) Although the DNC is singing a similar song in Nevada, (they have a 100,000 voter registration lead), it is still a “swing” state, (as Massachusetts could be if given the right attention).

According to the Nevada Secretary of State’s office : 2008 Nevada Active Voter Registration tables show the Democrats with a total of 537,642 enrolled, versus 435,068 Republican’s enrolled – there are 1,222,249 registered voters, of which, 186,021 are “Non-Partisan” with the balance Green, Independent, Libertarian, Natural Law or “other”. It will be the effective “courting” of those 186,000 non-partisan voters that will make or break Nevada and Harry Reid. (The same way Republican’s manage to get into the Governor’s office in Massachusetts.)

Ried is concerned that he raise these funds, because with the deadline for political contributions closing on Dec. 31st, and the FEC report that follows may be used as a quide by some who would harm Harry - it’s all about appearances. In the Review Journal Reid Stated: "Republicans and the media, both in Washington and Nevada, will use this number to gauge the strength of my campaign,". Reid is fighting back: he has set up a website: Giveem hellharry.com , and according to the Mercury News Reid has started his 2010 campaign by soliciting donations using “I’m the Republican’s number one target”. as an incentive for donors.

The question remains, can Harry Reid, who’s overall popularity in the State of Nevada is at a 51% disapproval rating stave off a possibly active state GOP? Harry Reid's seat, not unlike John Kerry in MA, who had a 56% “replacement rating” according to a Suffolk University Poll, (Add to that: 51% of the state’s electorate unenrolled.) looked as if it were in jeopardy - yet the RNC walked away from Massachusetts. Apparently - this media driven “heavily Democratic state” and John Kerry’s “war chest” weighed in more than possibly picking up a badly needed Senate Seat with the 51% of unenrolled who put Mitt Romney in the Governors’ Mansion (Granted, on his own dime.) The RNC looked the other way and John Kerry’s easily won re-election.

Therefore, Harry Reid should look to Kerry, Massachusetts and the national RNC - if there is a sign that the RNC will put up a fight, of if they field a candidate who has Romney like funds; Harry Reid will be nothing more than a footnote in DNC History.

McCain-Huckabee Speculation

Clinton Wins All-Important West Virginia

The Arkansas News Service is reporting on the U.S. New and World Report blog that floated a Mike Huckabee as Vice President piece earlier in the week – additional speculation from Novak, floating a “credible religious right type” informer who made the claim that Mike Huckabee would see Obama as a president that America “deserved” – a statement that was flatly denied by a very credible Mike Huckabee, finishes the article. U.S. News and World Report has a follow-up here: Responses from those on the “right” to the idea of a McCain-Huckabee ticket.

All pundits involved (with the exception of Novak, who should try a actual reporting for a change - “credible religious right type” (note: smears two entities in one stroke of the pen, Christian conservatives and Mike Huckabee – a two-fer!), are speculating based on the fact that McCain needs help in certain areas and Mike Huckabee fills that bill. They point to the south, as well as blue-collar working class individuals who, they note, Mike Huckabee identifies with. Here’s a thought, given the map of the GOP race to date, Mike Huckabee has done very well, including states that have voted since he announced an end to his candidacy. Protest votes send a clear message; unfortunately, pundits and the GOP and possibly John McCain may miss the message.

It is not true that Mike Huckabee appeals to only the “Evangelical, Southern, working class” that the media and pundits continually point to in an attempt to explain his appeal away vis a vis their elite mentality. One look at the HuckPac blog roll shows a stunning array of non-typical Huckabee supporters.

Conversation with mother-in-law, an 85 year old, sharp as a tack, Yankee, Catholic, non-nonsense, kind of lady – I don’t like that Obama, he has no experience, and change, what kind of change? I like Hillary, but it’s looking like she doesn’t have a chance, (she reads the actual newspaper, watches CNN, FOX and MSNBC), I don’t like McCain, he’s too old (seriously, this was said, but there is an explanation) – I don’t know if I’m going to vote. Except, it would depend a lot on who McCain chose as V.P., (here comes the age factor), I’m not crazy about Mitt Romney, given his record in Massachusetts, we had enough of him, but, I’d vote for McCain if he chose Mike Huckabee. – So, I had to ask, why Mike Huckabee? Because he’s honest, and he has a plan, I watched him a lot on CNN in the beginning and I know they told us that he couldn’t make it because he didn’t have enough money, but they liked him, and so did I. He’s a compassionate leader and he cares about the country and the people. (For the record, she has voted both sides of the Aisle, and considers herself to be Independent). McCain can now add Senior Citizens to the list of those who would vote for him, only if he had a younger running mate! Preferably one who was bolstered in the beginning of the primary cycle by CNN and MSNBC! (How ironic is this?)

From a geographic -demographic perspective, a McCain –Huckabee ticket makes sense in any wise, Mike did well in the south and the Midwest, and of course, West Virginia. He’s known, and although, not well liked by neo-conservative groups (that should be a bell-ringer as to why he’s electable); it’s a smart-choice on a GOP ticket.

That said all of the above is mere speculation. McCain has the choice to make, and there are many qualified candidates for the VP slot – short list, long list, top of the list, at this point, that list is subject to change. Although personally a Mike Huckabee supporter who would love to see him on the ticket, I prefer a “wait and see”, actual announcement to wild speculation.



On another note, a very positive note: Hillary Clinton took the state of West Virginia last night in what can only be seen as a stunning defeat for Barrack Obama and a huge boost to the Clinton Campaign. It was an across the board, across demographics victory that should send a clear message to those Super Delegates who have yet to commit that perhaps Obama is not the right choice at this particular moment in time. The Base, again, that all important Base, which, although as fragmented as the RNC base, has that big block of working-class voters who identify with Hillary Clinton, along with women, (it might be worth noting that this particular minority is actually a huge majority), who are critical to a win in November. Just as the RNC has relied heavily on values voters (or those who are also Christian conservatives, those who prefer less tax, those who prefer less government), in the past to push G.W. Bush in to the White House for two terms, neither party can, at this point, afford to ignore the candidates (or potential v.p.’s) that will bring these voters home.