2012 GOP Update: McClatchy Marist Polling: Obama One Term, Palin, Unannounced Gains 20 Points, In Statistical Tie With Obama - Analysis

Palin in Statistical Tie with Obama - Madame President? Image NY Daily News

Although the cross-tabs are not yet available for the latest poll from McClatchy-Marist, one of the least conservative of pollsters, the chances for President Obama to be re-elected in 2012 are growing dimmer by the day. In the initial release by McClatchy Entitled: “Poll Obama Expected to Lose But Still Tops Any Republican One on One” is somewhat disingenuous when one factors in the margin of error at 5.5%. What is leading headlines yesterday and today is the following from McClatchy :

“The biggest gain came for Palin, the former Alaska governor who hasn't yet announced whether she'll jump into the fast-changing race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
After trailing Obama by more than 20 percentage points in polls all year, the new national survey, taken Sept. 13-14, found her trailing the president by just 5 points, 49-44 percent. The key reason: She now leads Obama among independents, a sharp turnaround.”

Additionally this poll found that both Palin and Giuliani jump to the top tier if they are factored in the poll, with Giuliani showing the highest score against Obama. Currently, Perry, Romney and Bachmann lead with Republicans. Which begs the question – which demographic was used to calculate the overall approval among Republicans and Republican leaning independents in this poll? A Fox News Poll which was taken last month showed Palin losing in a Republican primary, and Giuliani topping all contenders, however, that poll included Democrats in the equation, the demographic which outweighed the Republican sample by a significant margin. When one took the % of Democrats out of the sample, the statistics changed dramatically, giving Palin the lead. One must wait until McClatchy Marist releases the cross tabs to truly parse this poll.

This is where the Republican’s stand in this poll against the President:
Giuliani beats Obama by 49 to 42, Romney is behind by 46 to 44, Perry behind by 50 to 41, Bachmann by 53 to 40 and Palin by 49 to 44*, which, should either Palin or Giuliani enter the race at any time between now and November of 2012, they would be in a position to start from a top tier position. What is interesting the poll also states that both Giuliani and Palin do not fare well with Republicans, similar to the Fox poll which used the same language in the release, yet again, in the cross tabs, included Democrats in the sample.

Additionally out of 1042 samples, 825 are registered voters, those two samples were combined, out of the 825 registered voters, 317 of those surveyed were Republican or Republican leaning Independents the balance, one might suggest were 508 Democrats and Democrat Leaning Independents or a 38% more Democrats and Democrat leaning Independents than Republicans’ which is hardly representative of voter registration nationwide. Moreover, if the poll is slightly skewed demographically by question, what is obvious is that among Democrats, Obama is losing significant ground, and in addition, those Democrats and Democrat Leaning Independents, along with Independents in general (where Palin leads Obama) one would suggest in a national match-up, Palin and Giuliani would be the most obvious choices to win the General.

However, lost in the polling, is the suggestion that Republican’s and those leading Independents, who happen to prefer Palin and Giuliani not enter the race, followed by both of the aforementioned either trouncing or within the margin of error, when it comes to a general election.

Polls at this point, of course, and the candidates mentioned are hardly an indicator of who might win the Republican nomination in the long run. Pundits now theorize that Republican’s will vote for the candidate they feel will have the strongest ability to beat the Incumbent. In addition, one must look at the primary ground game in three key states (which this year, may be a moot point) Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have traditionally been the bellwether as to who will eventually win the nomination. However, (current polls aside) should Palin enter the race, and take Iowa, with Romney taking New Hampshire, it will go to South Carolina, where, either Perry or Palin could end up gaining ground, should Perry win in the Carolina’s, it would setup a Super Tuesday scenario where the candidate that is best positioned to pull ahead, and has the best grassroots organization to begin with, would be considered the front runner, and if those states are split, it would continue to the next Month and so on, until a clear leader were established.

If one looks at the 2008 presidential race, Romney was out of the race by Super Tuesday, leaving McCain in the lead, and Huckabee, holding on for several months in order to a) give the voters a chance, and b) keep the Republican brand in the “news”.

The next debate will be a Fox debate held tomorrow night, September 22nd, 2011, and it is doubtful that out of the nine candidates running, a “thinning of the herd” will take place. At most, one would think the current field (plus one or two) may hang in until well into November. The press and even those who wish that a certain not yet announced candidates who are, apparently, able to clean Obama’s clock in a national election, would do so sooner than later, can afford to wait.

From this blogs perspective, the “non-candidate” in this poll most likely to run would be Palin, whose announcement into the race would bring to bear a massive grassroots organization, that might be difficult for other candidates to amass, specifically those in the current top tier. In addition, unlike the Romney/McCain/Huckabee contest in 2008, Huckabee came out of Iowa like a freight train, and then lagged in fundraising and organization; however, it was his grassroots support that was pivotal in keep the former Arkansas Governor in the race to the bitter end. Palin, unlike Huckabee, is not shy about fundraising, which would change the dynamics of the 2012 race, especially against Mitt Romney, who does well among Independents (note: surprisingly to McClatchy Marist and most likely the Republican Establishment) so does Palin.

*Obama leads Romney by 46 to 44, and Palin by 49 to 44 in this poll: Therefore in the Romney Obama match up: 10% are undecided, while in the Palin match-up, 7% are undecided, the undecided’s are generally leaning independents. Therefore, without the crosstabs yet available, one cannot know which candidate does the best among independents in this poll. However, with a remarkable gain of 20 points in a short period of time, especially in McClatchy poll, one can suggest that the candidate yet to announce is the candidate to watch in future polling. It is fitting then, to finish with a “Palinism” (believe that was coined by the New York Times) “Polls are for strippers and Cross Country Skiers”. However, they sure make life interesting, and can be predictive, especially internal polls.

Bachmann Joins Palin in “Women Can’t Be President” Rant “Hill Blog” – Offers “Serious To-Do List”

A little ditty by Jill Hummer, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Wilson College offers: : “A serious" to-do list for the female GOP candidates”, which includes: that they get serious about the economy, “Lose Fox News Celebrity Status”, and “Tone Down Silly Lingo”. She begins by noting that at this time in the 2008 election, Hillary Clinton was ahead in the polls, and so is Romney, while neither Palin or Bachman are close. Apparently, she failed to note that at this time in 2008 Mitt Romney was the favorite as well, and both he and Clinton failed to achieve the GOP nomination, Clinton robbed by Super Delegates, and Romney stymied by Mike Huckabee in Iowa and a combination of McCain, Huckabee and Fred Thompson (former Senator and Actor).
In addition, Palin, who has yet to announce is either tied or within the margin of error to Mitt Romney in many polls, while Romney is in front in certain polls, most notably Gallop, with the majority of respondents still undecided. Bachmann, who just announced last week, will most likely be making a dent in those numbers, as she continues to, as dubbed by the Christian Science Monitor Continues to Rise.

As to looking towards a strong leader, one who inspires confidence being a male trait, whereby, no female would be able to contend, think again. Turn on any talk radio show, ask a neighbor, or just view the words, actions and deeds of the two Women being advised not to appear on Fox News or use “Silly Lingo”, and one would find most hosts, callers, and others, bemoaning the fact that the only candidates from any party right now with any “male traits” (politely put), are Michelle Bachmann and Sarah Palin, while the men appear more like the women of yesterday.
It is that both of these women, who are smart, rededicated public servants, with records of achievement in both civic and private lives, are who they are, with no excuses, and who have a take no prisoners, pride in America attitude, which drives those on the left, and center, including Beltway, academic and Mainstream Republicans, Democrats and Progressives to flinch, just a bit.

The fact that a woman, who “studies the presidency and women”, (of which there must not be a great deal of study to do, considering we have yet to elect a woman to the highest office, and to anyone’s knowledge, only two have achieved the honor of being nominated to the “running mate status” (Palin and Geraldine Ferraro), with the third running a smart and savvy campaign until stymied by her own party and the women within (Hillary Clinton), there’s just not a lot of material there.
Perhaps it is time to go back a little further than the U.S. Presidency to find women who lead nations without hesitation, bringing peace, and standing up in war (in fact leading battles), from the beginning of written history to the 21st century. Not a one was perfect, but then again, most were born to their leadership posts as queens, or were from nations that respected women (Israel’s Golda Meir comes to mind), whereas, somehow, the nation that “leads the world in women’s rights, apparently has neglected to understand that the qualities associated with the office of the CEO of the United States, does not allude to one gender only. The Office of the Presidency is one which requires the abilities of a CEO, the ability of an individual to inspire, and lead, and the ability to choose those who will aid an administration wisely. How did the men stack up? I leave that to the reader to decide, (Please attempt to take partisan baggage out and look at the overall administration and ask the question, would a woman have not done an equal and or better job?)

In closing, the prevailing logic that most Presidents coming from a Governorship have a better record in office, may make it difficult for Bachmann, then again, the last President was elected from one term as a Senator, is a lawyer, and well, pretty much matches Bachmann career choices, (granted Bachmann is in the legislature where they actually write and vote on laws and hold the governments purse strings).
That said, it is not so much that either Bachmann and Palin may be right for the job, but they are both, Constitutionally eligible, brilliant, proven women who actually want to take on this mess of a government at this time and in this place, (ok, one might add a little crazy for wanting this particular job, but that goes to their male counterparts as well) – this is, of course, unless one must first pass the litmus test of male brilliance spouted by those from both parties, especially the women who dominate the mainstream media and academics who will, with a vengeance, do their utmost to undermine both, and any other female who dares to rise against the “accepted male norm”. It is, from this perspective, disgusting. Would it not better serve the public, and the candidates, to opine about policy differences one might have with either of the aforementioned? In a utopian America, that might be the case. Fortunately, both Bachmann and Palin appear immune to these ridiculous “ditties”, as they press on. We’re fortunate that we have one woman who has entered the race, and possibly a second who has yet to enter, giving us both an historical first for women, and an opportunity to see one elected to the highest office. It is a nation of opportunity for all, even though “all men are created equal”. It is surprising that little line was not thrown in by Ms. Hummer! The list brings one back to the 1950’s, a Betty Crocker, Good Old Boy, Wishing things were perfect world, where the women were women and the men were men. It’s no longer an option. We need strong women and strong men, to be both leaders and mentors – both these women fit the bill.