The CA 12th (formerly the 8th district) – Nancy Pelosi faces John Dennis in November election – Dennis new Commercial Quirky a Bit of Humor goes a long way.

The Contest: John Dennis Vs. Nancy Pelosi for the 12th - image John Dennis 2012 dot com

Yes, Virginia, there is a challenger to Nancy Pelosi in the California 8th district, one Libertarian, John Dennis. Dennis ran against Nancy Pelosi in 2010, the results of which race, was one of the few that the NYTimes predicted correctly – the return of votes – showing Pelosi with an 80% lead over candidate Dennis in the 8th district, one district that is gerrymandered to the point where Pelosi might as well have the ability to name her own successor. That said, different race, different year – the same odds however, apply to the newly formed 12th District – which Pelosi inherited when California, not unlike Massachusetts had to reshuffle the Congressional seats due to population loss. In Massachusetts, for example, Barney Frank became the sacrificial lamb (so to speak) when the Democrats on the Hill, had to restructure 10 districts into 9 – the result one of them had to have more conservatives (yes, in Massachusetts) than others – the district give to Barney Frank looked a lot different, with a majority of the large urban areas sliced away, and central Massachusetts (the reddest part of the bluest state east) included in the mix. Frank resigned – he had run a tough race for re-election against Sean Beilat – the race projected by the New York Times as a blow-out for Frank, by 75% of the vote, ended up a tad closer, at a 10 point lead. That said the former 8th district did indeed go to Nancy Pelosi – pre-redistricting.

The 8th district includes – San Francisco – Bay view Excelsior and Presidio. The 12th district now includes Outer Sunset and the Sunset District, a bit broader, but the Times continue to call the seat – “Safe Democrat”. They also have the Massachusetts 6th, with the Tierney-Tisei match up “Safe Democrat”, that said, a recent poll shows the Republican running away with the District. Go figure.

The 8th District results in 2010 showed Speaker Pelosi garnering 157,000 votes to John Dennis’s 33,000 (California Secretary of State) – and considering that in San Francisco County (the 8th District) -461,768 are eligible to vote, with 259,808 Democrats, 44,003 Republicans, 136,000 registered as not stating, and the balance a jumble of parties. The point being, that less than a third of those eligible to vote showed up at the polls. (Secretary of State, CA)

Therefore there may be an opportunity here for John Dennis to pick up the Disenfranchised, Democrats, as well as “declined to states” add a few Republicans and unseat Nancy.

The campaign released a new video – shown below – a bit quirky, but isn’t that what San Francisco is all about? – Those 4 million jobs Nancy is referring to as being created, hardly enough to push down the 8% unemployment rate nationally – however, Dennis and CO kept it light focusing instead on domestic surveillance issues – but again, he’s a Libertarian, and what’s not to like about a Libertarian?

There is likely to be zero polls out the district, and Dennis appears to be a serious challenger – in a year where the polls are based on the prior election (2010 for Congress – 2008 for the President), there are some factors to consider: Redistricting is one of the biggies, no one is apparently talking about – while talking heads use outdated district maps to back up 2008 and 2010 return of votes as a predictive indicator. One would be cautioned to wait until the dust settles, However, Dennis needs a ground game in the City-District, and poll watchers, and of course, someone to keep an eye on the bay, where most of the ballots may end up if they are not favorable to Ms. Pelosi.

(Basing that on MA and CT shenanigans.)

He’s got a sense of humor, grant him that.

One last thought, on almost every single race, and every single poll, the media is now noting (Politico) that it is those with blinders on that cannot see an across the board win for Democrats in November – The polls simply cannot be wrong. (See: Poltico article on parallel universe) Further, that those who insist that the polls are somehow skewed in favor of the incumbent Democrat (pick one) are living in la-la- land. Of course, they do not consider that there is some math to factor into the mix. The following apparently makes sense to those in the media. Based on a 2008 electorate, polls are correct, because in 2008 there were 8% more Registered Democrats at the polls, the Republican’s were outmatched by the Democrats and Independents, an almost equal number trended Democrat. Further they used the 2008 Congressional elections to predict house and senate races in 2010. They were shocked when they work up and found historic gains by Republican’s in the House. The math is what is at fault, and since they no longer teach basic math skills to the majority - they assume, that 8 points or more will magically appear. One has to be delusional to believe that can happen. One would be better served to poll based on election statistics from the 2010 election, of course, the results are far less favorable, and with redistricting, that takes a great deal of county by county predictions right off the table, unless someone is actually polling the District or State for the Senate Race and not using 2008 models.

Which is why the nation was shocked when a day before the November 1980 elections Jimmy Carter was tied with Ronald Reagan, and the results just didn’t jive because Regan won! Shocker! – Gallup in explaining the differential once the dust settled simply stated, there was a change in enrollment in political parties from the prior election that weren’t factored into the polls. (Google News Archives).

Really?

Check out the video below – Personal Note, a Libertarian in Congress would far better serve the nation, as they are independent of major party affiliation... If one is in the Califonria12th, visit http://www.johndennis2012.com/, maybe make a donation, be part of history, get him a ground game. Find those 250,000 missing voters who stayed home and get them to the polls for Dennis.

Nancy Pelosi, (D-CA8) Up for Re-election in 2012 – Battles to Maintain Power in Congress – Capuano (D-MA) No to Pelosi – Boston Globe Scolds

Pelosi Seeks Power - here with Obama - mutual adoration apparent - image PatDollard

Nancy Pelosi, former Speaker of the House, is determined to seekthe position of Democrat Minority Leader, regardless of the fact that some in the Democrat Party would prefer another member take the lead. Pelosi, who, despite support for her Republican Opponent in 2010, John Dennis, coming from every corner of the 8th district, including the endorsement of Cindy Sheehan, won re-election by a an astounding 80.1% of the vote. Pelosi, who along with the House Democrats, lost leadership positions when Republican’s regained control of the Congress in November, simply refuses to go away. Perhaps it is the fact that she did so well in her own District, or the dogged nature of the Progressive, whose ideology trumps reason in all cases, that leads the most unpopular figure in American politics to compete in what is partially, a popularity contest.

All leadership positions, regardless of which political party controls the house, are subject to politics inside the party; members must convince their “peers” that they deserve a specific leadership post. Nancy is now in the stages of doing just that, while the GOP is perhaps her biggest cheerleader. Her biggest detractor however, comes from the Bay State, where one would think that Progressive Democrats would heartily support Nancy’s quest to be the Minority Leader – not so.

The Boston Globe reports today, (or more to the point opines and blasts several Democrat incumbents for bad manners) suggests that Michael Capuano (D-MA8), is not pleased with Nancy’s performance and suggests she seek retirement. Capuano, unlike the balance of the 9 Massachusetts Congressional Representatives, did not face a tough fight for reelection this year (he ran uncontested. He understands the consequences should Pelosi remain the face of the Democrat Party. It was the numbers that came into play in the once “secure” Democrat Commonwealth of Massachusetts that made Mike stand up and take notice.

Normally, members of Congress in blue states like Massachusetts and California, do not even face a serious challenger, and go unchallenged for decades. In 2010 that changed, and both California and Massachusetts saw challengers in Districts that are home to some of the most previously powerful in Washington. For example, when looking at Districts the New York Times suggested would be taken by each incumbent with at least 70 plus percent of the vote, they actually came in a tad too close for comfort. The MA2 (Richard Neal (Formerly seeking Chair of House Ways & Means), saw 1st time challenger Tom Wesley with little financing, take 42.7% of the vote, MA5 (Niki Tsongas), saw 1st time challenger, Jon Golnik take 42.3% of the vote, the open seat in the 10th District, Democrat Bill Keating won by merely 4 points, and in the MA4th, Barney Frank (former Chair Finance) was chased by Sean Bielat, and won by 10 points, which had Barney Frank fuming (see Globe article on Frank’s bad manners.) The balance of the races, were in the same vein in MA, with entrenched incumbents coming in with lower overall percentages than in previous decades.

Capuano understands that those results are encouraging, not to the Democrats, but to those who are now considering run in 2012 at the same Congressional Representatives who only won by 10 points or even 20. The challenges will come, and these former powerful members of the House, will have to begin fundraising again, to battle opponents unknown. It is that with Nancy Pelosi’s face as leader, which will be used in every possible ad against those who support her, which has smart Capuano running as far away from his former protégé as possible.

It will be interesting as the infighting continues, to see if, between now and January when the new Congress convenes, who will take the titles of Democrat Minority Leader and Whip. Capuano may be hoping it is a moderate face, however, Nancy is not going away quietly, and may, in the end, manage to take the lead. According to the Globe, all Nancy Pelosi needs is the backing of the California Congressional Representatives (D) as well as the 10 Democrat Massachusetts Congressional Representatives and she will be well on her way to meet her goal. Note that report was made prior to the Capuano announcement/analogy vis a vis Pelosi and baseball (the losing coach is normally fired (paraphrased), leaving Pelosi, 1 short. Surely there are other Progressives, left in the Congress who will stand for Pelosi, and give the GOP the opportunity of taking the rest of the House and Senate in 2012. Of course, this depends on whether or not the GOP stands on its principals and delivers on the promises made - that is the only option before these new Congressional members.

Nancy Pelosi faces challengers – Names mentioned as Replacement: Richard Neal (D-MA2)

Richard Neal Next Minority Whip? Progressives add to List of Pelosi Replacements: image Kerry.senate.gov

Not without a little interest as the Congressman Richard Neal represents the MA2 district, a bleep on a bog: www.leftinalabama.com speaks to the question all Progressives are asking: “Dose Nancy Pelosi Deserve to be the Dem Leader?” (Title of the post on leftinalabama) The question asked is met with a variety of no’s, most often with reference to sports and what happens to the head coach when any given team suffers massive losses.

Then the roll call of who might be acceptable to Progressives, since Ms. Pelosi is clearly not (in Alabama and one would suspect elsewhere outside of the main media): John Larson, Ed Pastor, Richard Neal, Ed Markey, Norm Dicks, Bob Brady, David Price, and Anthony Weiner.

Richard Neal, who the Progressives may champion, (as they did with the recent get-out-the-vote to reelect Neal to yet another term in Congress), does not necessarily project the personality nor the power to become the whip. Although objectively, one has to look at Neal, who is a team player in the Obama administration, managed to survive the first challenge he faced in decades to win reelection, and managed that to the tee.

When one questions what does the minority whip do? They count votes and bully their peers into seeing things their way. Hardly sounds like Neal’s style, however, that may be the reason why his name came up at all – the fact that (old adage again) one can catch more flies with honey than vinegar, coupled with a threat of some sort, that would surely never make the press. Neal is the epitome of discretion.

One knows this especially when one is a constituent simply because the Congressman is barely heard of or from during the period between elections. More to the point, even during elections, there is little to find out about Richard Neal, other than very positive stories run in the local press, followed by glowing endorsements from the same. Neal won the election, some might say, handily, however, when looking at the reality of the race, he had to fight harder than usual, as one Tom Wesley, of Hopedale, a veteran and businessman, managed to get 40% of the vote, but did that distraction of a war for his seat of “power”, prevent any negotiations elsewhere? Most likely not. Neal is no idiot, knowing his political fortunes were about to be seriously diminished, it would make sense, for him to turn from visions of Chairing the House Ways and Means Committee (no longer an option) to Minatory Whip. He’s progressive, he has Obama’s back, and yet, he appears non-threatening.

Although one must understand that this is from one comment on one progressive blog, early in the conversation, one must factor that it has at least some traction. Suggestion: Set Google Alerts to Richard Neal, Minority Whip.