The CA 12th (formerly the 8th district) – Nancy Pelosi faces John Dennis in November election – Dennis new Commercial Quirky a Bit of Humor goes a long way.

The Contest: John Dennis Vs. Nancy Pelosi for the 12th - image John Dennis 2012 dot com

Yes, Virginia, there is a challenger to Nancy Pelosi in the California 8th district, one Libertarian, John Dennis. Dennis ran against Nancy Pelosi in 2010, the results of which race, was one of the few that the NYTimes predicted correctly – the return of votes – showing Pelosi with an 80% lead over candidate Dennis in the 8th district, one district that is gerrymandered to the point where Pelosi might as well have the ability to name her own successor. That said, different race, different year – the same odds however, apply to the newly formed 12th District – which Pelosi inherited when California, not unlike Massachusetts had to reshuffle the Congressional seats due to population loss. In Massachusetts, for example, Barney Frank became the sacrificial lamb (so to speak) when the Democrats on the Hill, had to restructure 10 districts into 9 – the result one of them had to have more conservatives (yes, in Massachusetts) than others – the district give to Barney Frank looked a lot different, with a majority of the large urban areas sliced away, and central Massachusetts (the reddest part of the bluest state east) included in the mix. Frank resigned – he had run a tough race for re-election against Sean Beilat – the race projected by the New York Times as a blow-out for Frank, by 75% of the vote, ended up a tad closer, at a 10 point lead. That said the former 8th district did indeed go to Nancy Pelosi – pre-redistricting.

The 8th district includes – San Francisco – Bay view Excelsior and Presidio. The 12th district now includes Outer Sunset and the Sunset District, a bit broader, but the Times continue to call the seat – “Safe Democrat”. They also have the Massachusetts 6th, with the Tierney-Tisei match up “Safe Democrat”, that said, a recent poll shows the Republican running away with the District. Go figure.

The 8th District results in 2010 showed Speaker Pelosi garnering 157,000 votes to John Dennis’s 33,000 (California Secretary of State) – and considering that in San Francisco County (the 8th District) -461,768 are eligible to vote, with 259,808 Democrats, 44,003 Republicans, 136,000 registered as not stating, and the balance a jumble of parties. The point being, that less than a third of those eligible to vote showed up at the polls. (Secretary of State, CA)

Therefore there may be an opportunity here for John Dennis to pick up the Disenfranchised, Democrats, as well as “declined to states” add a few Republicans and unseat Nancy.

The campaign released a new video – shown below – a bit quirky, but isn’t that what San Francisco is all about? – Those 4 million jobs Nancy is referring to as being created, hardly enough to push down the 8% unemployment rate nationally – however, Dennis and CO kept it light focusing instead on domestic surveillance issues – but again, he’s a Libertarian, and what’s not to like about a Libertarian?

There is likely to be zero polls out the district, and Dennis appears to be a serious challenger – in a year where the polls are based on the prior election (2010 for Congress – 2008 for the President), there are some factors to consider: Redistricting is one of the biggies, no one is apparently talking about – while talking heads use outdated district maps to back up 2008 and 2010 return of votes as a predictive indicator. One would be cautioned to wait until the dust settles, However, Dennis needs a ground game in the City-District, and poll watchers, and of course, someone to keep an eye on the bay, where most of the ballots may end up if they are not favorable to Ms. Pelosi.

(Basing that on MA and CT shenanigans.)

He’s got a sense of humor, grant him that.

One last thought, on almost every single race, and every single poll, the media is now noting (Politico) that it is those with blinders on that cannot see an across the board win for Democrats in November – The polls simply cannot be wrong. (See: Poltico article on parallel universe) Further, that those who insist that the polls are somehow skewed in favor of the incumbent Democrat (pick one) are living in la-la- land. Of course, they do not consider that there is some math to factor into the mix. The following apparently makes sense to those in the media. Based on a 2008 electorate, polls are correct, because in 2008 there were 8% more Registered Democrats at the polls, the Republican’s were outmatched by the Democrats and Independents, an almost equal number trended Democrat. Further they used the 2008 Congressional elections to predict house and senate races in 2010. They were shocked when they work up and found historic gains by Republican’s in the House. The math is what is at fault, and since they no longer teach basic math skills to the majority - they assume, that 8 points or more will magically appear. One has to be delusional to believe that can happen. One would be better served to poll based on election statistics from the 2010 election, of course, the results are far less favorable, and with redistricting, that takes a great deal of county by county predictions right off the table, unless someone is actually polling the District or State for the Senate Race and not using 2008 models.

Which is why the nation was shocked when a day before the November 1980 elections Jimmy Carter was tied with Ronald Reagan, and the results just didn’t jive because Regan won! Shocker! – Gallup in explaining the differential once the dust settled simply stated, there was a change in enrollment in political parties from the prior election that weren’t factored into the polls. (Google News Archives).

Really?

Check out the video below – Personal Note, a Libertarian in Congress would far better serve the nation, as they are independent of major party affiliation... If one is in the Califonria12th, visit http://www.johndennis2012.com/, maybe make a donation, be part of history, get him a ground game. Find those 250,000 missing voters who stayed home and get them to the polls for Dennis.

Pelosi Versus Dennis - Dennis Ad Cast Pelosi as Wicked Witch!

A scene right out of the "Wizard of Oz" is the latest political ad by John Dennis for Congress. John Dennis is the Republican Candidate challenging Nancy Pelosi for the California 8th District Seat. The ad is a bit hokey, and depending on which way one votes, pretty darn funny - either way it sure does get the point across. If anyone can make Pelosi disappear from the political arena, it would be John Dennis. He's received every conceivable endorsement in the district and Nancy, according to the last FEC filing is a bit short of cash.


See Ad Below

Nancy Pelosi Not Sure How Long She’ll Remain Speaker of the House – Is the Speaker Considering Retirement Options? Analysis

Pelosi unsure of her role as Speaker - Image: Time

A rather glowing article on House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, from the WashingtonPost yesterday included a somewhat unusual statement from the Speaker at the end of the article:

"If you're asking me how long I intend to stay here, I don't know. I don't know. I just don't know. I have certain issues that I want to accomplish, but what's more important to me is that we have a strong Democratic majority," she said. "That's more important than who is speaker."

Some may argue that her national favorability rating standing at 11% would give her reason to muse over losing the speakership, however, it is the approval rating in her own back yard that would give Pelosi pause. A Field Poll conducted last October 2009, shows Pelosi with an overall approval 34% in California, with Democrats, at that time, giving the Speaker a 51% rating, with 21% of the Party Faithful having no option, and 23% disapproving of the Speakers performance. In the same poll, Senator Boxer, who is now in a battle for her Senate Seat, has a higher rating, 66% in this particular poll. According to Real Clear Politics Polls Boxer is now within the margin of error in most California polls, giving her Senate Seat the websites “Toss up” status.

The 8th district may not be representative of the balance of California, however, if one looks at the California Secretary of State’s registration statistics, in 2008, 56.49% or 269,664 registered voters identified themselves as “Democrats” , the latest figures show a slight decline in registered Democrats – dropping to 251,516, with the overall percentage remaining basically the same.

Interesting, however, is that 17% of those Democrats voted for Cindy Sheehan, of Code Pink fame, in 2008. What would an approval poll in Nancy Pelosi’s district look like now? See Barbara Boxer.
Nancy also faces opposition from Dana Walsh, the Republican candidate who ran against Nancy in 2008, in a year where the Republican Brand was as bad as the Democrat Brand is today. At that time, Walsh received only 8% of the vote.

However, fundraising in 2010 is telling. Both Walsh and Pelosi have filed approximately the same amount in dollars: Pelosi: 1.7 million to Walsh: 1.4 million. Cash on hand: Pelosi: 172,000, Walsh: 123,000. Both women are not being funded by their political parties. Walsh, however has a primary fight with John Dennis, while Pelosi has recorded a total of $2500 from her Party. That fact, in and of itself, maybe due to the fact that the Speaker’s district seat is considered a “lock” for the Party, but then again, so was the Senate Seat referred to by Democrats as the Kennedy Seat.

One also understands that Dana Walsh is no Scott Brown, nor does she have to be, (or any other challenger with fiscally conservative credentials in 2010), and one would hazard to guess that Pelosi, is watching this more closely than any other race she has faced in the district. Given her popularity nationwide, as well as the statistics favoring a change in majorities – thereby ousting Pelosi as Speaker, the real possibility exists today, that she may also be looking at forced retirement in her own district. Nancy Pelosi's Statement, in the post article, directly stating that it is not important who the speaker is, as long as the Democrats maintain a majority, appears to be forced bravado on her part. Perhaps like Dodd, and others who have “fallen on the sword” so to speak, for the sake of the Party and outright retired, Pelosi maybe thinking along the same lines. It would prevent her from losing face: first by losing the majority, and secondly by losing in her own backyard.

Nancy Pelosi Faces Opposition in 2010 - CA 8th District – Candidate Profile: Dana Walsh

Dana Walsh for Congress: CA 8th District - The Anti-Pelosi - image CNN Money from article: Elect a Businesswoman to Congress

Addendum: Although, at the time, Dana Walsh appeared to be the stronger primary candidate, (lesson to learn about cash on hand versus the voice of the people) one John Dennis is now the opposition candidate to Nancy Pelosi - In fact, Dennis has risen to the occasion and appears to be exactly perfect for the 8th district. To learn more about Dennis read this article here and go to www.johndennis2010.com

Nancy Pelosi, the multi-millionaire congressional representative of the California 8th district is up for re-election in 2010 and, as usual, her seat is considered “safe”. However, those who normally do not poll the California or Massachusetts congressional or senatorial races unless and until, they are forced to do so because it becomes glaringly apparent that an incumbent or the Democrat running for a seat vacated by a Democrat is – in a word – cooked (see Scott Brown and the last minute polling, both real and biased (Boston Globe), that flew out of Massachusetts in the final week of the campaign. Once the numbers indicated Brown might win, the pundits and pollsters were willing to concede, he’d do great even if he came close. Once he won outright, his win was considered “a fluke”.

Really?

Several factors are in play now, that have continued to build steam over the past six months, and the angst felt by the general public (regardless of political affiliation) is palpable. There are several races that are definitely national in scope simply based on who is currently holding the seat: Harry Reid, in Nevada, Barney Frank in Massachusetts and yes, Nancy Pelosi in California.

In 2008 Nancy Pelosi cruised to victory against several contenders, one of which as a San Francisco business woman and Republican, Dana Walsh. In her 2008 campaign against Pelosi, Dana garnered a mere 9.7% of the vote in a 4 way race, with Independent “Code Pink” Cindy Sheehan, picking up 16.2% respectively. Nancy Pelosi managed to receive 71% of the vote in that District in 2008.

The majority of Pelosi’s’ funding came from PAC’s: 53% and the top corporate donors are wineries. The later most likely because Pelosi and her husband own a winery where they wined and dined donors in 2008 (source: Word Socialist Web Site). In 2008 Pelosi raised $2,856,945 for her campaign in a year when any Democrat win was a “given”. Dana Walsh’s campaign finances were not noted as Cindy Sheehan was the top “vote getter”.

Nancy Pelosi - looking rediculous while cowtowing to a male centered society - image cinifiles wordpress

Times have changed – According to the FEC; Dana Walsh is starting to attract attention. Although early in the “game”, Walsh has (as of the last FEC report) raised $415,344, compared to Peloisi’s $1.2 million, which in terms of a Republican in Pelosi’s court, spells trouble. Walsh also has a primary challenge in John Dennis, who is also running to unseat Pelosi. The additional fact that there are at least two Republican challengers in the 8th District of California is stunning.

Additionally, Cindy Sheehan managed to raise approximately $626,000 total in her campaign against Nancy - this should also be factored in, because in most of the nation, Cindy would have been considered a “fringe candidate - left of left – in other words, in 2008, members Nancy's base had, in a word, enough of Nancy.

Dana Walsh’s appears ready to give Nancy Pelosi a ride for her money, and in this political climate, the probability exists that the next woman elected to the 8th District in California will not be Nancy Pelosi.

About Dana Walsh: The current Health Care Reform Bill – she stands in opposition and offers real ideas for reform available here on danawalshforcongresss.com. Dana also takes a stand with solutions for a myriad of issues ranging from Cap and Trade to the War on Terror – Dana is smart, without the obvious “holier than though” persona that Nancy Pelosi has trademarked.

To learn more about who, with some help, could unseat Nancy Pelosi in 2010, visit: Dana Walsh For Congress - the anti-Pelosi.

You can also follow Dana on Face Book, where she currently has 3,544 fans Nancy Pelosi does not have a Facebook page and/or fan page.

The Speaker, who prayed to St. Thomas prior to the vote on health care reform (Video here). She may be saying Novena's left and right over the next few months, calling on all the saints and the Pope himself. Of course, this is the same woman who screams separation of church and state unless she feels it is politically expedient to be a Catholic. Even in San Francisco, there appears to be a limit.