2016 – Speculation Taking Shape, Polling has begun, Clinton, Rubio, Christie, Ryan, Bush III

One might think Senator Paul has made a decision - rather people (and businesses selling cups, stickers, etc.) are hopeful - image from the Jeenyus Corner

It goes without saying that the political arena, not unlike Professional Wrestling, is a sport that draws in a segment of the population that is always seeking the “next best”, yet generally winds up rooting for the “lesser of two evils” team. With each election cycle there is hope, and then, those hopes are dashed, no matter who the candidate may be – and no matter which side of the political fence one sits upon.

2016 is starting to look eerily similar to those past elections, yet, dollars to doughnuts the actual contenders are those that are not yet in the spotlight – hopefully.

Quinnipiac Polling got the ball rolling with a hypothetical match-up between Hillary Clinton and ”top 2016 GOP Presidential Picks”, Chris Christie, Mark Rubio and Paul Ryan. In this poll, Clinton bests all three by double digits. (CP Poll) Of course, that poll was conducted prior to Rand Paul’s magnificent stand in the Senate, or prior to the Bush dynasty rolling out former FL Governor, Jeb Bush as a potential.

One should understand that although it appears the spot “belongs” to Hillary Clinton, considering her own party ditched her popular vote for the more progressive and younger Barack Obama, that said, all will depend on the mood of the nation by the time 2016 rolls around. In addition, it also greatly depends on the GOP and those who would pick a McCain or a Romney rather than someone who would actually energize the base as well as appeal to individuals on both sides of the aisle. Additionally someone who would honestly treat the media, as the media is going to treat them and be prepared to go head to head, not only with the group of GOP hopefuls, but the Press and the crazies from both parties.

It is with a heavy heart, that as a feminist would felt that 2008 was a no-brainer, with an adept Clinton leading the field of lightweights and the inexperienced (from both tickets) one fears that that ship has sailed. Although she had pulled away from the Obama Administration early enough, there is that connection, her health (which can be used by her competitors, her opposition and the media) and the dark side of her party, who would choose another half-term Senator, a woman, rather than allow Clinton her “due”. Unfortunately, one cannot just vote for “any” woman, no matter how “pretty” a picture that woman might make (or grandmotherly, take your pick) – It is confidence and quality - and the fact that historically there was a three decade gap between the first woman to grace a major party presidential ticket (Democrats, Ferarro), and the last to do so (Republican’s Palin).

The polling turns: A Recent McClatchy-Marist Poll shows a general downturn in popularity (both personal and job performance) for the President, as well a general dislike to both parties in Congress – although the Democrats fare slightly better, their numbers are not much to crow about. The Republicans’ find themselves on the right side of the budget cuts, but by a mere 2 points, compared to the President, in other words there exists a general distrust for both parties.

Enter Rand Paul – Dr. Filibuster, and the son of Ron Paul, the perennial Libertarian – GOP candidate who has, what one might think a small following, but it is a significantly motivated following. Rand Paul, unlike his father is getting press that puts him in contention. He is to be admired as a principled servant of the people and his Libertarian streak is what causes groups as diverse as Code Pink and the hard right to applaud his efforts.

There are those who already speculate that he is running in 2016 - That he will be a major player, the Washington Post, for one, and the UK’s Guardian suggests Paul’s odds are better than most at this time.

Then again, Jeb Bush is out there, and although he may be extremely capable – imagine the yawn, a Bush-Clinton match-up might be?

Should the good Doctor decide to run, (at the moment he is bolstering his 2016 Senate Campaign), it would be all bets off – but again – it is far too early to tell. One things is certain, what the nation needs is someone who is not wedded to either major political party – one that is capable of pushing aside the leadership and their status quo of divisive politics, to lead both the right and the left – similar to, but not Ronald Reagan, (the litmus test must go) rather a new breed of servant that would lead with the intent to put the people over the political machine.

President Obama and a Third Term – the Reasoning, the Right, The Left, the Money and the Constitution

The Steps, in brief, to amend the Constitution -image thisnation.com

There’s a great deal of “talk” about President Obama running for a Third Term and being successful, and talking heads as well as PAC’s are pushing this theory as if it were “gospel”. There is one questions to consider before sending money to a PAC or organization that would help one prevent such a scenario – especially considering how many are wedded to the theory that the United States is going to “hell in a hand-basket” over one man in the White House.

How would the President, with Congress and a majority of the States push through a repeal of an amendment in time for the President to qualify for a third term? The answer is simple. The 22nd Amendment was passed with what was considered “blazing speed”: it was brought before the Congress and passed on March 24, 1947. It was ratified on February 27th, 1951. (U.S. Constitution.net) That’s three years from the time the Congress passed the amendment, until it was ratified. The processes (There are two): :

1. A Bill must pass both Houses by a two-thirds majority. Once passed, the Bill goes to the State’s to “ratify”. Each State must vote on whether or not to adopt the amendment, again, the magic number is two-thirds of the states. A note: There is generally a time-limit written into the Bill, and that time limit is generally seven years.

2. A Constitutional Convention may be called. This involves two thirds of the states legislatures asking for a Convention to be convened for amendments. Once the states are convened, Proposed Amendments are then sent back to the states to be ratified.

When looking at both Constitutional paths to changing an amendment, one understands that the process is both lengthy with no guarantees of passages given the diversity of the States, especially in the two-party system in which the U.S. functions.

Yes there are other methods not discussed about, the Informal Amendment (or those interpretations of the Constitution brought before the Supreme Court), and the Popular Amendment which has never been attempted. The later would require a national election, which on the surface sounds very simple, and yet, neither of the aforementioned are specifically written in the Constitution itself, the Popular Amendment was proposed by one of the framers. For more information on the above refer to: uscontitution.net.

What would anyone gain from spouting off about a change to the 22nd amendment? A change that would be speedy enough to allow for a third term for any President (unless the process was started in Congress previous to that Presidents second term) – is technically impossible. Anyone who donated or supported candidates during the 2012 election might find that they are receiving robo calls from PAC’s in late November! Calls that warn of impending crisis, and how donating to that PAC will allow them to fight for the freedom’s one is losing, has lost or is about to lose. Seriously. There’s a lot of money at stake. One can point to the right, but one also has to understand that there are also PAC’s on the left, looking for continued employment and a source of income – from the individual “patriot” or “progressive”.

Could they be that devious, or money-grubbing? You betcha.

The 2012 election was won and lost for one reason and one reason only – the Republican Party failed to get out the vote. (Or enough of the vote to compensate for the 3 to 4% cheating one can anticipate from the Democrats). It is not an impossible task. It has been done before – before there were multi-billion dollar campaigns, and anyone with reason understands that messaging costs. However, the 2010 election should be the model for all elections, as there were PAC’s, but little to no real involvement from the national parties, with the exception of a few blessings (those candidates generally lost), and a change in the House that was historic based on the motivation of the people. One would think people were motivated in 2012, and the truth of the matter, they were obviously not motivated enough. There is an exemplary article written by Erik Erikson at Red State: “A Primer for Rich Donors Who Got Taken to the Cleaners by Republican Consultants” It is suggested reading for those on the right and those on the left of the political aisle.

The President won, the Progressives within the Democrat Party may want to enact social changes that those on the right are not simpatico with, and however, there is nothing done that cannot be undone. When one hears: “Obama Care! We’ll be stuck with it for-ever!” Think again. It is an Act that is constantly being changed by those currently in power. Waivers are granted, rules being written and re-written, before the Act takes full effect! In four years there will be yet another election, and if the people are disgusted by the left, then the people will vote for the more “right’ candidate. That will bring about a change in the Administration as well as all facets of the government, and new rules will be written. That is, of course, unless the Act itself is struck down once more on the basis of Religious Freedom (see Liberty University Health Care Suit).

A reasonable person might be tempted to hold onto their wallet. The reason: there are those that are espousing the third term, even talk show hosts are on the third term bandwagon. These are smart and savvy radio personalities that appear to have nothing to gain – except audience share and their advertisers (who happen to have a good deal to do with prepping for disasters, investing in gold, etc.)who both benefit from – fear. They may also believe some of what they are espousing, but again, as with anything else that needs to be verified, research the possibilities. If one doesn’t trust “Google”, then head to the local library and look it up!

Finally, there is always the next election, and to date, there are a few names being bandied about – from the Senator from Florida, Rubio, to the latest conjecture , Jeb Bush, or Bush III as the Drudge Report noted. However, those of us in the trenches know one thing for certain, regardless of which major party one is affiliated with, the power brokers are already choosing the next contender. If one is on the right or a Republican, one might look to who ran and lost previous to Mitt Romney. The old – “It’s your turn now” nonsense that continues to push a candidate that is clearly unelectable, unless it is a “dynasty” in which case, that may also be a mistake. (See McCain, See Romney). If one is on the left, get ready for Elizabeth Warren, the newly elected, Jr. Senator from Massachusetts, touted by some Progressives as the perfect candidate to Replace Barack Obama. Gone will be the race card, replaced by the “Feminist Card”. Watch the GOP try to match that. In the meantime, perhaps there will be a movement away from both major parties – towards the Libertarian Party, or if there is any sense in this world – the Tea Party (get organized please). This would allow for what the founding fathers actually envisioned – (Read: the Federalist Papers) a Republic that was free of strong Political Parties.

When the math doesn’t add up, there’s usually a reason: those factors not considered. For example, the polls and the possibility for a sweep by the Republican’s were there in 2012. What one did not account for was the fact that voters would sit this election out – for a multitude of reasons, including failure of software (nothing beat s boots on the ground). That said, the math for a third term, no matter which way one slices it, doesn’t add up – but what does add up is the money that will be sent by the gullible to either support or defend something that simply will not occur.

Charlie Crist’s Run As Independent Will In The End Be A Boost to Rubio - Analysis

Charlie Crist now Run as Independent, Mark Rubio Likely Next Florida Senator

Charlie Crist’s run for the Senatewas over before he announced his plan to run as an “Independent” and leave the GOP. Crist had been lagging behind, Mark Rubio, former Florida Speaker of the House, in the GOP primary polls. Rubio, a fiscal and social conservative, had pulled ahead by 17 points in a Rasmussen Poll taken in March; however, recent polling data suggested that the race was within the margin of error. This begs the question, why the sudden switch to Independent. Although the polls appeared to have tightened, Rubio’s last quarter FEC filing reports beat Crist’s by 2.5 million. In most instances, one can argue that cash on hand may not beat a solid grass roots ground game, but Rubio had Crist beat on that score as well.

Both Rubio and Crist were outpolling the Democrat contender, Kendrick Meeks. Now, with Crist running as an Independent, granted with name recognition, the battle will come down to a match-up between the Political Parties – and who has the better “brand” going into November. The Atlantic blog, reported that Crist, had reached out to the White House < a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/04/the-night-beat-sorry-charlie/39662
">Chief of staff Rham Emanuel, prior to his announcement but calls were not returned. Leaving room for speculation that Crist may have wanted a place on the ballot as a Democrat. The blog also notes that as of now, Obama is polling in the high 40’s in Florida, however, Democrat political candidates cannot rely on how well Obama polls in any given state (see Massachusetts Special Election as an example).

Florida’s electoral makeup, according to the Secretary of State’s website is currently at 36% GOP, no party affiliation, 19%, other party 3% and Democrats 42%, meaning Crist would have to pull significant numbers away from both major parties in order to beat Meeks and Rubio. This is highly unlikely, as Independent Candidates, with rare exceptions, normally pick up an average of 6% of the final vote tally in elections. The one candidate who did pull it off in recent history was Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, who ran as an independent when forced out of the party primary, going on to a solid win. Crist is no Joe Lieberman. Although charismatic, he is not an incumbent, who is widely popular and supported by both party affiliations, therefore, it is most likely that Crist will manage that 6%, while the race will shape up between Meeks and Rubio. Although Democrats currently hold an advantage of 6% over the GOP, that 12% of unenrolled (giving Crist the 6 points), will most likely go GOP based on historical trends.

The move to Independent may have been a bit premature, and it did appear to be a move of desperation, rather than one of commitment to a particular political ideology, which may have the unintended consequence of pushing Crist further down in the polls, which should be evident in polls certain to be out within the next few weeks.

The handicappers (media) also see this particular race through varied rose colored glasses. An Ap article suggests that Crists’ move will benefit Meeks, while Politico sees the move as beneficial to both major parties (depending upon which GOP or DNC former consultant is citied in the article. Overall, with Florida’s modest makeup of independent voters, the Republican Brand building nationwide, even though the two remaining candidates Meeks and Rubio are lesser known that Crist statewide, it will, in the long-run, boil down to those two candidates, leaving Crist as the third man out.