New York’s 23rd District, Doug Hoffman takes Lead in Latest Poll – Pawlenty Endorses. The Nation Trends Conservative - Analysis

Doug Hoffman, New York 23rd Conservative Candidate - image Madison County Courier

Doug Hoffman, Conservative Candidate for the New York 23rd Congressional District, has now taken the lead according to a poll conducted by the Conservative Club for Growth. Hoffman receives 31% of the vote, with Democrat candidate Owens at 27% and the Republican Candidate, Dede Scozzafava at 20%, the balance of those polled remain undecided with just over a week until the election. Tim Pawlenty has become the latest in a string of Republican heavy hitters, to endorse Hoffman. Pawlenty, who is considered a considered a potential candidate for the 2012 Republican Presidential race, gave Hoffman his endorsement on Monday. Pawlenty joins Sarah Palin, Steve Forbes, Rick Santorum, Fred Thompson who have endorsed Hoffman over the Republican Candidate, Dede Scozzafava, who is considered to be too moderate. Former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich has endorsed Scozzafava – Gingrich is once again, considered to be a possible candidate for the 2012 Republican ticket.

Why the split?

As happens in the two major political parties in the United States, there are various sub-factions within each party, all holding several basic tenants, but at the same time, disagreeing on many – neither party is, as of this writing, cohesive. The Democrat Party includes progressives, and moderates, as well as the newly minted “Blue Dog” Democrats, which are, from all intents and purposes, Republicans. The Republican Party has the moderate or Beltway Republicans and then the more focused conservatives, both fiscally and socially, that drive the vote. In addition there are several up and coming parties, including the Libertarian and American Conservative Party, all of which are drawing new members from both major political parties. Hoffman is a candidate of the New York Conservative Party, a separate entity, which was founded in 1962, after members of the Republican Party in New York, felt disenfranchised, and formed their own entity. The New York Conservative Party has been influential in races in New York State, electing James Buckley to the Senate in in 1970. (An extensive overview of the New York Conservative Partycan be found here at the University at Albany.

The Political Landscape

There has been a shift in the political think of the American populace, to the right – according to a recent Gallop Poll

“Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.”

Gallop explains that the reason the shift is significant is that independents, are weighing in as holding more Conservative views, a 29% shift towards conservatism since 2008. Given that independent voters, (which make up a significant part of the electorate, especially in certain states (see Massachusetts with over 50% of the electorate designated as unenrolleds), and that those voters generally choose a candidate based upon identity, not party affiliation, it would then follow that conservative leaning candidates will be given the nod in the 2010 and 2012 elections.

The Evangelical Factor

A leader of what is dubbed “the right-wing, Evangelical factor”, (often erroneously tied to the Republican Party although, often responsible for Republican Candidates wins or loses, for that matter), James Dobson, made a stunning argument, or one might say prediction of today’s political landscape in 2007 in discussion with Fox New Talk show host, Sean Hannity. In a nutshell, Dobson argued that if the evangelicals did not endorse any Republican political candidate, and a left-of-center Democrat were elected President, the backlash to liberal politics over a period of several years, would result in a sweep of conservatism in 2012.
As one looks as polls on races in 2009 and 2010, Real Clear Politics, it is apparent that the nation is trending conservative in their choices.

Sarah Palin – the Modern Maggie Thatcher

When Sarah Palin was announced as the choice for running mate, misgivings came from both genders within the Republican party, fueled by a relentless press that questioned how someone with no background (they neglected to use Google), could be elevated to such a lofty position. Then she spoke at her introduction and set the Republican base at ease, but not the media (that body she does not court), which works for her in this instance. The worry that a woman would not be able to stand up to the opposition and/or to lead in any event has taken hold of the press, regardless of party affiliation (evident during Hillary Clinton’s candidacy), fell on deaf ears as Palin spoke with television viewership that rivaled that of media darling, Obama. The questions are still there, in the papers, or the blogs, or the cable news outlets – is she capable of sustaining this level of statesmanship?

Photograph of Margaret Thatcher wedding day 1951

Apparently, she is given more credence by the British who have already compared her to their own Margret Thatcher, and with good reason. From the book, “Queen, Empress, Concubine” by Claudia Gold, Thatcher’s life and rise in U.K. politics is given excellent, albeit condensed treatment. Thatcher was the first woman that lead a political party in the UK, her background one of simple means; her father was a local grocer who instilled in her the value of hard work and self-reliance. She worked her way through Oxford, studied chemistry and joined the Conservative party. She won a seat in Parliament, at the age of 34. Thatcher was also a wife and mother, and a reformer. The Press did not treat her kindly. There are similarities – therefore the comparisons.

Women here, stateside, have looked for a strong, conventional, yet independent leader who was in that very mold. Is Sarah Palin another Margaret Thatcher? Humble background, mother, and a conservative streak would lend to the comparison – that said, Palin has an endearing indentifying quality, which leaves no doubt that she will lead with grace, style and yes, wit – but with integrity from a position of strength.

It is not the fact that Palin is a woman that is her political strength - her strength lies in her accomplishments as a reformer, her fearless and capable speech, and her ability to actually indentify with those in the trenches. She just happens to be a woman, and women just happen to have been waiting for “not any woman” but a woman who could lead. There will, of course, be the one issue that separates (or appears to separate) women in the U.S. and that is the issue of abortion. How important is that issue to the independent and unenrolled women? That is the unknown. The committed left and the committed right have already chosen sides on this issue in regards to Palin - ( some on the left going to far as to worry over her hairdo (without first checking fashion trends) as if a choice of hairstyle somehow has relevance to governing. Independent minded and Unenrolled voters look to character, accomplishments, and of course, the entire ticket, and yes personality. In that case, Palin should do quite well; regardless of (or perhaps because of) how hard the left leaning media works to portray her in a negative light.

Joe Lieberman – Introducing the New Independent Republican Party.

Last night Joe Lieberman addressed the Republican Convention and made a direct appeal to moderates across the nation, regardless of party lines, to take a long look at McCain and cast their vote in November for a Republican. Although the party faithful Democrats are up-in-arms about Joe’s speech, those Progressives who would have replaced him in a heartbeat with an Obama clone two years ago, one can’t be sure how that appeal affected the likely voters that are on the fringe - moderate Democrats as well as Independents. In contrasting the speech given by Zell Miller in 2004, which was a fiery lecture regarding the basic values that Miller felt had been abandoned by his party, Lieberman looked to history and gave a spot-on analysis of what the first President felt was wrong with party partisanship and how one-day it that partisanship – putting party first - might lead to a division within the nation that would cripple the government. His references to Barrack Obama were polite, yet they pointed to the lack of experience and the partisanship shown in Obama’s short time in his national Senate seat.

Lieberman is being called “Brave by some for crossing the aisle and incurring the wrath of his party. Threats have been made, by the likes of Harry Reid, that Lieberman could face the loss of a coveted Committee Seat should he not blindly follow the party. The fact that anyone would think a place of prominence in a given political party should concern an American or hold a Public Servant hostage is mind-boggling. When one compares the various “Party” experiences of both McCain and Palin with those of Joe Lieberman - a theme of true independence occurs. Many in the within the rank and file of the Democrats feel, and rightly so, that their party has been hijacked by Progressives (Socialist-Communists), turning the once inclusive party into a elite machine (See DNC Reform and PUMA), while most within the Republican party have been Independent (the rank and file and those outside of the Beltway), and the party, although much maligned, was the original party of inclusion and has historically, done more to promote those who may by gender or ethnicity, be targeted as “owned” by the other party.

Now that Joe Lieberman has thrown down the gauntlet, so to speak, and invited independents, rather those who care more about the country rather than a political party, to join with him in what amounts to a reform movement, a movement not only for the country but a movement within a party for the good of our nation.

As the far left members of the Democrat Party (or more appropriately the Progressive Democrat Party by virtue of its leadership), has, in recent days, shown that fascism and fanaticism know no bounds. In the past few days, Democrats have released the SS number and Home Address of VP Nominee, Sarah Palin, sympathetic media outlets such as Move-on.org, The New York Times, the Daily Kos (who works for Howard Dean, disclaimer on Home page), and the Huffington Post have placed unusual amounts of emphasis on Palin’s family personal matters – and Howie Carr, WRKO Boston, reported that one that had gone so far as to offer a reward to anyone who can come up with dirt on the family. Fascism anyone?

There has always been party rivalry, but that has been tempered with decency – within recent years, decency has fallen by the wayside, in favor of any tactic, including slander, in order to place the Democrat ticket at the top. As an independent minded American who, granted, leans conservative, the choice has become increasingly clear – there simply is no alternative to a McCain-Palin ticket – it is the New Independent Republican Ticket that offers real change that is backed up by the players resumes - not an empty “Yes we can” (borrowed from a Massachusetts governors campaign), that does not offer a resume or any certainty that there will not be four more years of the same partisanship that our first President, George Washington, predicted.