New York’s 23rd District, Doug Hoffman takes Lead in Latest Poll – Pawlenty Endorses. The Nation Trends Conservative - Analysis

Doug Hoffman, New York 23rd Conservative Candidate - image Madison County Courier

Doug Hoffman, Conservative Candidate for the New York 23rd Congressional District, has now taken the lead according to a poll conducted by the Conservative Club for Growth. Hoffman receives 31% of the vote, with Democrat candidate Owens at 27% and the Republican Candidate, Dede Scozzafava at 20%, the balance of those polled remain undecided with just over a week until the election. Tim Pawlenty has become the latest in a string of Republican heavy hitters, to endorse Hoffman. Pawlenty, who is considered a considered a potential candidate for the 2012 Republican Presidential race, gave Hoffman his endorsement on Monday. Pawlenty joins Sarah Palin, Steve Forbes, Rick Santorum, Fred Thompson who have endorsed Hoffman over the Republican Candidate, Dede Scozzafava, who is considered to be too moderate. Former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich has endorsed Scozzafava – Gingrich is once again, considered to be a possible candidate for the 2012 Republican ticket.

Why the split?

As happens in the two major political parties in the United States, there are various sub-factions within each party, all holding several basic tenants, but at the same time, disagreeing on many – neither party is, as of this writing, cohesive. The Democrat Party includes progressives, and moderates, as well as the newly minted “Blue Dog” Democrats, which are, from all intents and purposes, Republicans. The Republican Party has the moderate or Beltway Republicans and then the more focused conservatives, both fiscally and socially, that drive the vote. In addition there are several up and coming parties, including the Libertarian and American Conservative Party, all of which are drawing new members from both major political parties. Hoffman is a candidate of the New York Conservative Party, a separate entity, which was founded in 1962, after members of the Republican Party in New York, felt disenfranchised, and formed their own entity. The New York Conservative Party has been influential in races in New York State, electing James Buckley to the Senate in in 1970. (An extensive overview of the New York Conservative Partycan be found here at the University at Albany.

The Political Landscape

There has been a shift in the political think of the American populace, to the right – according to a recent Gallop Poll

“Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.”

Gallop explains that the reason the shift is significant is that independents, are weighing in as holding more Conservative views, a 29% shift towards conservatism since 2008. Given that independent voters, (which make up a significant part of the electorate, especially in certain states (see Massachusetts with over 50% of the electorate designated as unenrolleds), and that those voters generally choose a candidate based upon identity, not party affiliation, it would then follow that conservative leaning candidates will be given the nod in the 2010 and 2012 elections.

The Evangelical Factor

A leader of what is dubbed “the right-wing, Evangelical factor”, (often erroneously tied to the Republican Party although, often responsible for Republican Candidates wins or loses, for that matter), James Dobson, made a stunning argument, or one might say prediction of today’s political landscape in 2007 in discussion with Fox New Talk show host, Sean Hannity. In a nutshell, Dobson argued that if the evangelicals did not endorse any Republican political candidate, and a left-of-center Democrat were elected President, the backlash to liberal politics over a period of several years, would result in a sweep of conservatism in 2012.
As one looks as polls on races in 2009 and 2010, Real Clear Politics, it is apparent that the nation is trending conservative in their choices.

Michael Steele and the RNC Chair - Leadership without Compromise

There are several candidates for the RNC Chair, all with hefty resumes and conservative credentials; however, the choice should be made with an eye towards leading the Party forward, rather than focus on the “moderate”, or worse, trying to recapture a bygone era. From an intellectual perspective, the GOP losses in the past two elections were the result of the natural course of history, magnified by a seeming loss of identity. Over the past 6 years, there appeared to be little in the way of either social or fiscal conservatism coming from the Party leadership. Therefore a “business as usual”, chair candidate, will not bring the “change” necessary to attract the “base” as well as those all-important independents fence-sitters who are crucial to state and national elections.

The traditional GOP model was a party of inclusion, Abraham Lincoln aside, the platform of the Party has remained consistent, yet, the Party is viewed by the uninformed as a group of angry old wealthy white men, propped up by a base made up of religious nuts. This view has been fostered by the Democrats (who are actually a party made up of wealthy old white men, propped up by a base that is comprised of the “haves” (Hollywood, The Union Leadership, NARAL, Editors) and the “have nots” (Name the minority). The Democrats get better press and the Republican Leadership remains silent. Both parties have their share of “base” negatives, it is a question of producing an “image” that will appeal to those “independents” – if the DNC can downplay Ayers, Wright and the entire Chicago Political Machine, surely someone within the GOP would be capable of “normalizing” their base, which happens to be the normal aspect of the party – Social Conservatives, specifically those who are religious.

The choice of the RNC chair, therefore, should be carefully weighed towards an individual who is both socially and fiscally conservative, has a track record of inclusion of the various factions that make up the GOP, is media savvy and has the understanding of technology in order to counter the left, and actually grow the base. Michael Steele, former Lt. Governor of Maryland, FOX news contributor, and current GOPAC chair, meets that criteria.

In a recent interview with the Baltimore Examiner, Steele talked about his desire to “tear up the old playbook” and “move the party forward”,

That's going to start with building a ground game of fresh new faces and new voices that reflect a modern GOP. That's what I've tried to do at GOPAC [the candidate-training organization he chairs]. It doesn't mean that we're less conservative; it doesn't mean that those founding principles on which we have stood and are time-tested are no longer relevant. In fact, they are, maybe even more so. But how we speak to them and how we express them to voters without ticking them off or making them feel we're sitting in judgment of their lives and communities will make the difference.

Bingo – Steel knows what is at stake, and understands the need not to abandon GOP principals, but to effectively communicate. What sells this social conservative? The man understands the GOP’s biggest problem and he addresses it a phrase that should be practiced by every GOP candidate, from the local dogcatcher to the Senate to the White House : ”I don't need to be Democrat Lite to win.”

To learn more about Michael Steele and his Candidacy for the RNC Chair: visit Steele for RNC Chairman