As far as political campaign advertising is concerned, from :30 second commercial spots, to those of some length that appear on campaign websites, social networking websites, and the like, the award for best video to date for the 2012 Campaign goes to Texas Governor, Rick Perry's creative team for the compelling video shown below.
To steal a phrase from one liberal leaning friend and colleague, who has some knowledge of the industry - the "MTV clip" style, the use of the dark, "Exorcist" style music, war torn imagery, to the light and uplifting "savior" of the nation theme, makes this short a must view - for content and talent. The video produced by former Tim Pawlenty's team, headed by Lucas Baiano suggests that a full length feature film may be in order. At the very least, expect this to be an entertaining 2012 political season.
In a word: Brilliant
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Massachusetts Taxpayers Footing Bill for Luxury Items – Fraud, Incompetence Rife in The Bay State - Business As Usual
From TheBoston Channel comes a report entitled: “Mass. Welfare Money Spent On Resorts, Nail Salons”, detailing the news outlets investigation into “cash assistance” relief programs in place in the Bay State. Apparently, the data collected by the station involved a three month period in the fourth quarter of 2010 revealed million dollars were spent on travel as well as other luxuries. The emphasis appears to be on those that have abused the system; however, the real headline should focus on the State’s management of the program.
The agency that oversees the program, the Massachusetts Department of Transitional Assistance had never done an audit for waste for that program, or, if one reads into the fact that this was news to that Department, any other programs administered by the same.
With half the nation on food stamps and assistance under the current administrations watch (Washington), unemployment and the economy the main factors in the need for public assistance, one would think that aid could be delivered in a cost effective and dignified manner – perhaps, as with most “public programs” the Department of Transitional Experience might better serve the taxpayer if it were, say, outsourced to a private company.
In addition a few rule changes as to what one might do with money received from public assistance should be in order, along with ongoing monthly audits. Food, Clothing, and other essentials should be allowed, however, a trip to a nail salon, or a trip to Disneyworld, might be a bit over the top.
It is not that the Massachusetts Taxpayer is resentful of helping the needy, it is that the Massachusetts Taxpayer is quickly finding that one can no longer afford a trip to the nail salon, or a family vacation outside of the state, and still buy the weekly groceries – and articles such as this only fuel the flames of resentment, not at those receiving the aid, rather those that administer Taxpayer’s dollars.
According to a study conducted by the Heritage Foundation and released under testimony to the House Ways and Means Committee in April of this year (See PDF link here), the average household of four received $30,000 annually in Welfare Assistance, which is above starting salaries in most industries in the Bay State, including Teachers in some areas of the state. With the Federal Government’s current inability to see the fiscal forest through the trees (similar to the Bay State’s administration since 2006), this type of fraud, waste and abuse and incentive for those receiving, or about to receive aid to settle down to a state paid lifestyle.
It is by far, for most, a life of existence, not luxury, however, there is nothing in place that would provide the incentive to move up and out of the system, with the exception of “educational programs”, which do little or nothing put pour more money into bureaucracy rather than in actualized results.
One anticipates paying reasonable taxes: to provide for repair of infrastructure, teachers’ salaries, protection (police, fire, military) and yes, even assistance to ones neighbors in need, yet one also expects that those who are elected officials, hired by the people, will in turn, appoint and hire administrators who are qualified to effectively administer programs named. Unfortunately, it is not the case in the Bay State, or the current administration for that matter. Those living in Massachusetts are growing used to indicted Speakers of the House, fraud, waste and abuse in all facets of the state Government; however, it does not mean that it is accepted. When the few that support the many continue to decline due to inflation and increased taxes, there will come a point where there simply is no way to continue to provide services -a point that appears to be missed by those living in the Ivory Towers of Denial.
The agency that oversees the program, the Massachusetts Department of Transitional Assistance had never done an audit for waste for that program, or, if one reads into the fact that this was news to that Department, any other programs administered by the same.
With half the nation on food stamps and assistance under the current administrations watch (Washington), unemployment and the economy the main factors in the need for public assistance, one would think that aid could be delivered in a cost effective and dignified manner – perhaps, as with most “public programs” the Department of Transitional Experience might better serve the taxpayer if it were, say, outsourced to a private company.
In addition a few rule changes as to what one might do with money received from public assistance should be in order, along with ongoing monthly audits. Food, Clothing, and other essentials should be allowed, however, a trip to a nail salon, or a trip to Disneyworld, might be a bit over the top.
It is not that the Massachusetts Taxpayer is resentful of helping the needy, it is that the Massachusetts Taxpayer is quickly finding that one can no longer afford a trip to the nail salon, or a family vacation outside of the state, and still buy the weekly groceries – and articles such as this only fuel the flames of resentment, not at those receiving the aid, rather those that administer Taxpayer’s dollars.
According to a study conducted by the Heritage Foundation and released under testimony to the House Ways and Means Committee in April of this year (See PDF link here), the average household of four received $30,000 annually in Welfare Assistance, which is above starting salaries in most industries in the Bay State, including Teachers in some areas of the state. With the Federal Government’s current inability to see the fiscal forest through the trees (similar to the Bay State’s administration since 2006), this type of fraud, waste and abuse and incentive for those receiving, or about to receive aid to settle down to a state paid lifestyle.
It is by far, for most, a life of existence, not luxury, however, there is nothing in place that would provide the incentive to move up and out of the system, with the exception of “educational programs”, which do little or nothing put pour more money into bureaucracy rather than in actualized results.
One anticipates paying reasonable taxes: to provide for repair of infrastructure, teachers’ salaries, protection (police, fire, military) and yes, even assistance to ones neighbors in need, yet one also expects that those who are elected officials, hired by the people, will in turn, appoint and hire administrators who are qualified to effectively administer programs named. Unfortunately, it is not the case in the Bay State, or the current administration for that matter. Those living in Massachusetts are growing used to indicted Speakers of the House, fraud, waste and abuse in all facets of the state Government; however, it does not mean that it is accepted. When the few that support the many continue to decline due to inflation and increased taxes, there will come a point where there simply is no way to continue to provide services -a point that appears to be missed by those living in the Ivory Towers of Denial.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
2012 GOP Update: McClatchy Marist Polling: Obama One Term, Palin, Unannounced Gains 20 Points, In Statistical Tie With Obama - Analysis
Palin in Statistical Tie with Obama - Madame President? Image NY Daily News
Although the cross-tabs are not yet available for the latest poll from McClatchy-Marist, one of the least conservative of pollsters, the chances for President Obama to be re-elected in 2012 are growing dimmer by the day. In the initial release by McClatchy Entitled: “Poll Obama Expected to Lose But Still Tops Any Republican One on One” is somewhat disingenuous when one factors in the margin of error at 5.5%. What is leading headlines yesterday and today is the following from McClatchy :
“The biggest gain came for Palin, the former Alaska governor who hasn't yet announced whether she'll jump into the fast-changing race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
After trailing Obama by more than 20 percentage points in polls all year, the new national survey, taken Sept. 13-14, found her trailing the president by just 5 points, 49-44 percent. The key reason: She now leads Obama among independents, a sharp turnaround.”
Additionally this poll found that both Palin and Giuliani jump to the top tier if they are factored in the poll, with Giuliani showing the highest score against Obama. Currently, Perry, Romney and Bachmann lead with Republicans. Which begs the question – which demographic was used to calculate the overall approval among Republicans and Republican leaning independents in this poll? A Fox News Poll which was taken last month showed Palin losing in a Republican primary, and Giuliani topping all contenders, however, that poll included Democrats in the equation, the demographic which outweighed the Republican sample by a significant margin. When one took the % of Democrats out of the sample, the statistics changed dramatically, giving Palin the lead. One must wait until McClatchy Marist releases the cross tabs to truly parse this poll.
This is where the Republican’s stand in this poll against the President:
Giuliani beats Obama by 49 to 42, Romney is behind by 46 to 44, Perry behind by 50 to 41, Bachmann by 53 to 40 and Palin by 49 to 44*, which, should either Palin or Giuliani enter the race at any time between now and November of 2012, they would be in a position to start from a top tier position. What is interesting the poll also states that both Giuliani and Palin do not fare well with Republicans, similar to the Fox poll which used the same language in the release, yet again, in the cross tabs, included Democrats in the sample.
Additionally out of 1042 samples, 825 are registered voters, those two samples were combined, out of the 825 registered voters, 317 of those surveyed were Republican or Republican leaning Independents the balance, one might suggest were 508 Democrats and Democrat Leaning Independents or a 38% more Democrats and Democrat leaning Independents than Republicans’ which is hardly representative of voter registration nationwide. Moreover, if the poll is slightly skewed demographically by question, what is obvious is that among Democrats, Obama is losing significant ground, and in addition, those Democrats and Democrat Leaning Independents, along with Independents in general (where Palin leads Obama) one would suggest in a national match-up, Palin and Giuliani would be the most obvious choices to win the General.
However, lost in the polling, is the suggestion that Republican’s and those leading Independents, who happen to prefer Palin and Giuliani not enter the race, followed by both of the aforementioned either trouncing or within the margin of error, when it comes to a general election.
Polls at this point, of course, and the candidates mentioned are hardly an indicator of who might win the Republican nomination in the long run. Pundits now theorize that Republican’s will vote for the candidate they feel will have the strongest ability to beat the Incumbent. In addition, one must look at the primary ground game in three key states (which this year, may be a moot point) Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have traditionally been the bellwether as to who will eventually win the nomination. However, (current polls aside) should Palin enter the race, and take Iowa, with Romney taking New Hampshire, it will go to South Carolina, where, either Perry or Palin could end up gaining ground, should Perry win in the Carolina’s, it would setup a Super Tuesday scenario where the candidate that is best positioned to pull ahead, and has the best grassroots organization to begin with, would be considered the front runner, and if those states are split, it would continue to the next Month and so on, until a clear leader were established.
If one looks at the 2008 presidential race, Romney was out of the race by Super Tuesday, leaving McCain in the lead, and Huckabee, holding on for several months in order to a) give the voters a chance, and b) keep the Republican brand in the “news”.
The next debate will be a Fox debate held tomorrow night, September 22nd, 2011, and it is doubtful that out of the nine candidates running, a “thinning of the herd” will take place. At most, one would think the current field (plus one or two) may hang in until well into November. The press and even those who wish that a certain not yet announced candidates who are, apparently, able to clean Obama’s clock in a national election, would do so sooner than later, can afford to wait.
From this blogs perspective, the “non-candidate” in this poll most likely to run would be Palin, whose announcement into the race would bring to bear a massive grassroots organization, that might be difficult for other candidates to amass, specifically those in the current top tier. In addition, unlike the Romney/McCain/Huckabee contest in 2008, Huckabee came out of Iowa like a freight train, and then lagged in fundraising and organization; however, it was his grassroots support that was pivotal in keep the former Arkansas Governor in the race to the bitter end. Palin, unlike Huckabee, is not shy about fundraising, which would change the dynamics of the 2012 race, especially against Mitt Romney, who does well among Independents (note: surprisingly to McClatchy Marist and most likely the Republican Establishment) so does Palin.
*Obama leads Romney by 46 to 44, and Palin by 49 to 44 in this poll: Therefore in the Romney Obama match up: 10% are undecided, while in the Palin match-up, 7% are undecided, the undecided’s are generally leaning independents. Therefore, without the crosstabs yet available, one cannot know which candidate does the best among independents in this poll. However, with a remarkable gain of 20 points in a short period of time, especially in McClatchy poll, one can suggest that the candidate yet to announce is the candidate to watch in future polling. It is fitting then, to finish with a “Palinism” (believe that was coined by the New York Times) “Polls are for strippers and Cross Country Skiers”. However, they sure make life interesting, and can be predictive, especially internal polls.
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