The speculation over V.P. pics has reached a feverish pitch; as pundits and beltway experts weigh in on a multitude of possibilities for both McCain and Obama – one must keep in mind that, although a great way to pass the time, guessing who the V.P. will be is akin to buying a lottery ticket and hoping one wins. That said, those weighing in will have another week or so to continue to choose for the nominees – with one or two possibly getting it right.
The latest V.P. pic bandied about is Massachusetts Junior Senator, John Kerry. The case for Kerry’s V.P. is made by Jon Keller, of WBZ Boston. Keller’s Blog outlines the pro’s of a Kerry V.P. choice, so well, apparently, that Matt Drudge has made it a two day headline (August 15 & August 16). That said, other sources in Massachusetts have indicated there may be something to this, adding: “According to state law, Kerry can run for Senator and for Vice President simultaneously.”
Would Kerry fit the bill? Yes, he may even be the most logical choice. He is close to Obama. It was Kerry who chose Obama as the keynote speaker for the 2004 convention; he also campaigned for Obama in Illinois (while campaigning for president). Kerry has spent more time campaigning and fundraising for Obama than paying attention to his own Senatorial race. Additionally, as previously noted in other posts, Kerry’s 2004 campaign staff is working for Obama. Obama lacks experience; Kerry has experience and is national party leader. He is also an astounding political opportunist.
“Yes he can” run for Senator and V.P. simultaneously, however, polls indicate that the V.P. slot may be more likely than a re-election. Polls: Suffolk University polls have indicated that 51% of the respondents preferred Kerry not retain his seat (no other candidates were mentioned in this particular poll). Ed O’Reilly, Democrat for Senate managed to get on the ballot despite the best efforts of the Kerry camp to squelch O’Reilly’s ambitions. Additionally, Jeff Beatty, republican has begun to close the gap in the Massachusetts Senate polls – gaining approximately 20 points in the most recent polls, which coincides with the percentage of those polled as “having no opinion” (not knowing about) of the candidate, dropping from 60% to 40%.
O’Reilly and Beatty have grassroots campaigns, which Kerry cannot generate, preferring to meet with City and State politicians on the campaign trail rather than actual voters. The most interesting indicator is the Bay State press. Recent articles are showing caution: the word “if” has been inserted before “John Kerry wins the primary”. One needs only to "Google" Kerry and Massachusetts Campaign to find Obama's name in the majority of the results - this may be leading pundits to believe Kerry is considering the V.P. slot, or alternately, aggressively seeking the same.
With McCain and Obama now tied in the daily Rasmussen Polls (44 – 44), the Obama campaign must be seriously looking for a way to generate buzz. The logical step would be to go where they believe they have a shot. With Kerry’s popularity in Massachusetts questionable at best, and the Republican Candidate, Beatty mounting an increasingly effective campaign – Kerry might feel more comfortable in the national spotlight.
A Kerry VP pick in Denver? Yes, anything is possible, however, perhaps the campaign should poll in Massachusetts (specifically independents or unenrolleds who make up 50% plus of the electorate) prior to making any definitive decisions.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Friday, August 15, 2008
The Democrat Convention – This Should Be Reality Television at Its Best
The fact that Hillary Clinton’s roll in the upcoming conventions has been greatly expanded to include a nomination has many a pundit nonplused! Some are calling the nomination of Clinton “symbolic”, an appeasement process to bring Clinton supporters to Obama’s side. Other’s are a bit unnerved over the Clinton’s involvement in the process. Dick Morris, in a recent Fox News appearance, sees it a bit differently. Morris, who is not a fan of the Clintons and has a less than stellar track record of predicating the outcome of any given race, made an interesting point nonetheless: Obama caved into Hillary Clinton. How? By allowing her far too much time at the convention, and an opportunity to upstage Obama. The question: "How’s that for leadership on the part of Obama?" Morris went on to ponder; if Obama cannot control Hillary Clinton, how can he be trusted to control critical situations? (Issues of import to the security of the nation.)
That’s a valid question. However, can one place the blame entirely on Obama? Yes and no - it depends on who is chosing his advisors. That is not entirely clear. The one term senator from Illinois whose mentor, John Kerry, Democrat Massachusetts, brought to national attention in 2004 at the DNC convention, has hired members from Kerry's old campaign team. Those advisors, although well-intentioned, may not have the best track records.
John Kerry campaign staff from his failed 2004 presidential bid that are working for Obama include:
Heather Higginbottom, Obama’s policy advisor, Stephanie Cutter, senior advisor to Obama and chief of staff for wife, Michelle and Jim Margolis leads the commercial production and daily message team. Additionally, Tom Daschle is a national co-chair of the Obama campaign.
The Obama camp is hoping that the “symbolic” nomination and multiple appearances by the Clinton’s during the convention will mollify the 18,000,000 Democrats who voted in the primary’s – bringing them over to the side of the “magnanimous Obama.” This remains to be seen. One can bet the house that the ratings for the Denver Convention will be through the roof – not necessarily because Obama will be on the stage, along with a yet to be announced running mate – it is the drama. This year’s DNC party will be the best of Realty TV. It remains to be seen how much control Obama and his staff will have over those delegates on the floor who are there for one reason and one reason only – to nominate Hillary Clinton as their party’s standard bearer. Comments on the original news release from the ABC Blog are an interesting read with a common theme – disarray. What types of message will this sending to the average voter?
To recap: Obama’s surrounded himself with campaign advisors who have major political failures under their belt and Hillary Clinton will have a huge percentage of air time at the Convention. Republicans, who were destined to lose every election this year, are looking more likely to retain the White House and those Daschle-like, DNC “Obamafiles” (Pelosi and Kerry come to mind), may end up on the outside looking in.
That’s a valid question. However, can one place the blame entirely on Obama? Yes and no - it depends on who is chosing his advisors. That is not entirely clear. The one term senator from Illinois whose mentor, John Kerry, Democrat Massachusetts, brought to national attention in 2004 at the DNC convention, has hired members from Kerry's old campaign team. Those advisors, although well-intentioned, may not have the best track records.
John Kerry campaign staff from his failed 2004 presidential bid that are working for Obama include:
Heather Higginbottom, Obama’s policy advisor, Stephanie Cutter, senior advisor to Obama and chief of staff for wife, Michelle and Jim Margolis leads the commercial production and daily message team. Additionally, Tom Daschle is a national co-chair of the Obama campaign.
The Obama camp is hoping that the “symbolic” nomination and multiple appearances by the Clinton’s during the convention will mollify the 18,000,000 Democrats who voted in the primary’s – bringing them over to the side of the “magnanimous Obama.” This remains to be seen. One can bet the house that the ratings for the Denver Convention will be through the roof – not necessarily because Obama will be on the stage, along with a yet to be announced running mate – it is the drama. This year’s DNC party will be the best of Realty TV. It remains to be seen how much control Obama and his staff will have over those delegates on the floor who are there for one reason and one reason only – to nominate Hillary Clinton as their party’s standard bearer. Comments on the original news release from the ABC Blog are an interesting read with a common theme – disarray. What types of message will this sending to the average voter?
To recap: Obama’s surrounded himself with campaign advisors who have major political failures under their belt and Hillary Clinton will have a huge percentage of air time at the Convention. Republicans, who were destined to lose every election this year, are looking more likely to retain the White House and those Daschle-like, DNC “Obamafiles” (Pelosi and Kerry come to mind), may end up on the outside looking in.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Hillary Clinton – Vindicated – Nominated - Party in Denver
According to ABC News a deal has been worked out between the rival Democrat camps that places Hillary Clintons name in nomination at the Denver convention. The question now arises: “What if?”. Should the DNC be paying attention to the winds of change – the polls show Obama and McCain in a dead heat for weeks. Today’s Rasmussen Poll has a 1 point difference between the two, with Clinton voters likely included in that mix. The more Progressive Arm of the party (Pelosi, Reid, Kerry and Moveon.org) may be in for a rocky mountain ride, while moderates scramble to salvage what should have been a run-away for the “chosen one”. However, at this stage of the game, introducing Clinton as the front-runner (should that occur), may not leave enough time for the DNC to recover. That said it is the true Democrats in the party that have forced the Progressives to kneel, giving Clinton the opportunity to salvage the party in 2012.
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