If one looks to historical voter demographics to predict outcomes; then the likely outcomes, despite polling to the contrary, will place John McCain in the White House.
How they Voted 1980 – the keys: Regan won 53% of the male vote and 49% of the female vote, 52% aged 30-49 and 54% age 60 plus, 86% of the Republican vote and 26% of the Democrat vote.
Today, the issue of Race has become more prominent in the campaign – in the 1980 Voters by Groups – 10% of non-whites cast their vote for Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, retaining 90% of that group. However a stunning AP/Yahoo poll suggests that that one-third of all white Democrats still have an unfavorable view based on race. additionally, the Democrats have lost a share of Democrat women (no polling percentages), unable to bring voters who were firmly in the Clinton camp back into the fold. Groups include PUMA a PAC that was formed to return the Democrat Party back to its roots.
The Catholic Church has become more aggressive, noting that those who support abortion are “disqualified” – a YouTube video used by Catholic.org was pulled from that website. Recent Obama Rallies have been interrupted by a group called “Blacks Against Obama, their main theme has been the abortion issue. Although Reagan did not carry an overwhelming amount of the Catholic vote, McCain may make up ground as the churches are now more vocal and parishioners more engaged.
The Republican Base is no longer a wild card: Now that Sarah Palin, a strong, pro-life, conservative with a reform record is running with McCain, the base is solid and growing: The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that state Democrats “are freaking out” because Palin has energized the California Republican Party. Although downplayed by most of the media, Palin has attracted crowds of up to 60,000 at an event in Florida, the attendees: seniors. Compared to recent crowds of 8,000 for Obama, the top of the ticket. McCain already has the mighty Republican base behind him, to the extent not seen since the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan, he appeals to Independents, and most importantly disenfranchised Democrats. Should 10% of the Democrats (conservative figure) cast their vote for the McCain-Palin ticket; the electoral map will mirror that of 1980.
Finally, the biggest McCain-Palin boost is from the media. A Rasmussen poll suggests that 51% of the respondents felt that the media was “out to hurt” Sarah Palin, one sore point for the Republican Base and PUMA. It is no wonder then, that as the polls continue to tighten and the Republican base is shown as energized that the Democrats have little left but despair and derision? Although pundits are cautiously calling this a close race, Rasmussen, whose track record is a bit better than most pollsters, is already showing Palin-Clinton match-ups. As of September 3,Palin is leading Clinton 52/41 among women. Therein lays the rub: Is this particular polling designed to predict the outcome of the 2008 race? Or is it 2012?
