Gallup Predicts “Unprecedented” Change in Political Landscape – Republican’s Take Historical Lead Over Democrat Counterparts in Latest Poll

Gallup released its poll on the “Generic Ballot” yesterday, showing an “Unprecedented 10-Point Lead” for the GOP. The “Generic Ballot” is a general survey which indicates how voters will choose which by Party, the candidate they prefer when at the ballot box. The Survey, which has been conducted by Gallup since 1942, is historical in the fact that Republican and Democrat gains during mid-term elections are anticipated, however, in certain years, these gains are significant; Gallup specifically notes 1994 and 2002 in their release. According to Gallup in both 1994 and 2002, years that Republicans took significant numbers of seats in both houses, the Generic Gallup had Republicans with a 5 point lead over Democrats in both of those mid-terms. In 2006, when the Democrats took control of both the House and Senate, Gallup polls in August (among other pollsters shown at pollingreport.com), gave the Democrats a 2 point lead over their Republican Counterparts in August.

Gallup is one of the most “conservative” (meaning cautious) pollsters – normally trending with smaller spreads than other pollsters on all subjects, including the Daily Presidential Tracking polls. Therefore, this particular Gallup poll is historically significant, and should November play out as predicted, the shift in the Political landscape at the Capital will signal not only a change in political parties but a rejection of the policy and legislation that has been passed by this Congress since 2006. The largest lead in Gallup history goes to the Democrat Party, which held a 32 point lead over Republicans in 1974. At that time, the mood of the country was dismal – President Nixon and Watergate dominated the news – Democrats took both Houses, and in the next election, a little known, inexperienced one term Governor from the State of Georgia, was elected to the Presidency - one Jimmy Carter. One note: these wide gaps in polls were also taken pre-1990 or prior to the “information age” – the only news outlets were traditional media: CBS, NBC, ABC and the local daily newspapers. In the 2006 and 2008 election, Democrats held the edge on new media, specifically Internet, and yet the Generic Ballot from 1994 onwards shows this election to be the only one trending “double digits”.

Included in the Gallup is a second poll on “Voter Enthusiasm”. Polls on Voter Enthusiasm give a general view of which party is likely to “get out the vote” in numbers sufficient to either take a lead and or hold onto house and Senate seats. The gap in Voter Enthusiasm is also high by percentage and it speaks to the mood of the nation overall. This poll is taken by party affiliation: Republicans are now at a 25 point lead in enthusiasm over their Democrat counterparts, which Gallup notes is a one-point lead. Gallup Conservatism).

How will this play out in November? Historically one must understand that midterms normally signal a change in the “guard” in the Congress, and sometimes in the Senate as well. Polling at Real Clear Politics, which offers a margin based on a wide range of polls taken over a period of time: The current trends indicate the following (based on this method): The Senate: Democrats 48 Safe Seats, Republicans 44 Safe Seats, with 8 seats noted as “toss-ups”, the House: 194 Democrats “Safe”, 206 Republicans “Safe” and 35 seats noted as “tossups” (Note: This includes only 1 of the 10 seats in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts- where at least 4 of the House Seats are competitive.)

Lastly, the Governors, which are perhaps more critical than both the House and Senate Polls – show the Democrats with 15 “safe”, the GOP with “26” safe and “9” States that are, at present a “Toss-up”. The Governors races are important for several reasons, not the least of which is that it is indicative of the 2012 Presidential race and which party might be favored during that year. In 2006 a total of 36 seats were in play, with Democrats taking 6 of the Governorships over the GOP.

In terms of polls, the Gallup, which has been consistent over the years, is the one to watch on the Generic Ballot in the next two months – should the Republican’s remain at 5 to 10 point lead, then it is certain that that the majority Party in the Congress will be one that has campaigned on lower taxes, fiscal responsibility and a smaller Federal Government. Victory on this magnitude on the side of the GOP, may play out in several ways, one of which would be to begin the repeal process of unpopular legislation put into play, and ensure that no further spending projects are allowed out of the House. Should the Presidency fall to the GOP in 2012, this would insure the repeal of unpopular legislation and the remaking of certain legislation to affect choices for the American Public as regards health care.

To those who would believe that the damage done to our great nation is irreparable and will take decades to undo – take heart and look to history for guidance. What has been done, can be undone by the stroke of a pen, in years, not decades. Whoever takes the executive branch in 2012 will be faced with difficult decisions, including the possibility of tax increases for a short period followed by across the board tax cuts(see Ronald Reagan), in order to quickly put the economy on the road to recovery. Those who have lived history understand that this can and will happen, those who ignore history, are doomed to repeat it (i.e. Carter vis a vis Obama).

Mass Senate Race: Latest Poll Brown Plus 9 Over Coakley

Real Clear Politicsshows a variety of polls on the Massachusetts Senate Race, all coming within the past 24 hours. The latest poll has Brown up by 9 points over Democrat Martha Coakley. The poll, conducted by Insider Advantage/Politico ((Marginals herewas taken on the 17th. Additional polls vary between a tie (Daily Kos) and 10%, with the majority coming in between a 7 and 10 point advantage for Brown.

That said, no one is taking anything for granted in Massachusetts, the get-out-the vote effort for Brown has risen with each poll, regardless of the point spread.

Note: A Suffolk University Bellweather Poll has reportedly gone to Brown in double digits, however, Suffolk University has not issued a press release and/or provided marginals, which is a rarity. Until marginals or a press release are available on Suffolks website regarding bellweathers, one would be wise to refer to Real Clear Politics list of polls, or check the Suffolk website here. Currently Suffolk is showing the last poll as of December 14th.

Why is McCain so Confident? - Internal polling may be the key.

While the public relations machine for Barack Obama continues to pound away, while CNN, CBS, Zogby, Rasmussen, NBC and Fox show Obama leading in their respective polls (by varying degrees), John McCain continues to stand firm in the face of what, almost every pundit considers to be, insurmountable odds. Polls, mathematical predictors of outcome based on probability, are at issue, specifically the wide range of results shown here at Real Clear Politics. Real Clear Politics takes an average of all polls done, regardless of the sample used, and reaches a conclusion. Currently, Obama is shown to be leading nationwide by 7.6% according to this method. Some polls have been shown to be more accurate that others over the years, with the IBD/TIPPS poll having been the most accurate in 2004. Currently that poll “average” shows a virtual dead heat with 10.1% of the respondents, not sure (or refusing to answer). According to this poll, Obama is at 46.5 percent and McCain at 43.1 percent, there is a 3% margin of error, and an additional 10 points that are up for grabs.

Then there are those polls that the public and the press are not privy - the internal polls done by both campaigns. It is safe to say, at this point, the pollsters, who use a variety of formulas, questions and samples in order to achieve results are confusing due to the range of results as well as the percentage of undecideds. Therefore, one has to look at the reaction of the campaigns to try and guess what their internal polling data suggests. Both McCain and Obama are making stops in states where perhaps, their internal polls show that they need an edge. Interestingly, the VP candidates are most likely in states that are not critical - to shore up the base, as the balance is in line with that particular campaign. Both candidates ignore states that are considered “safe” one way or the other. What’s it all mean? Not one of “us” knows – literally, who will be elected on the 4th of November, not the pollsters, not the press. It will, in all likelihood, be yet another horserace. As Palin suggested, It's not over untl it's over.