Networks To Limit RNC/DNC Convention Coverage, Tampa Dem Mayor, Isaac and the RNC Convention, Cardinal Dolan at the RNC, Electoral College Predictions

The Republican National Convention - catch it on Cable News or C-Span - image: urbanchristiannews.com

It’s a wrap – the New York Times is reporting that the three major television Networks (ABC, CBS, NBC) will not offer full coverage of either the Democrat or Republican Conventions, rather one hour a day from Tuesday through Thursday for both, focusing on major speakers. Apparently, the networks are working on the assumption that viewers are disinterested in the process; therefore, it is a cross between ratings, and a public service not to air the conventions in their entirety. There are, as the network executives pointed out, other ways for those wishing to view the convention to do so, they named the web and “other sources” – those would be the cable news networks, as well as C-Span.

Meanwhile, in Tampa a bit of a storm is brewing besides Tropical Storm Isaac – from CBS Local the Democrat Mayor, Bob Buckhorn, indicated that in the event of a hurricane threat, he would have to cancel the RNC Convention. Brietbart.com suggests the Mayor, who supports his party’s nominee, incumbent President Barack Obama, maybe a bit overzealous. The Mayor, who most likely made that statement in regards to public safety, had previously noted that the RNC Convention in Tampa brings the City to the forefront, but, and this is a big but, he’s previously addressed concerns about public safety, including multiple scenarios ranging from anarchists to bio-chemical warfare in the streets of Tampa. (Indybay.org) Isaac is just one more “disaster scenario” that has come to the forefront. The probability for protestors exists at any convention, RNC or DNC, as well as the weather being a factor - however, in all honesty, the weather can be a larger threat in certain areas of the country than other – what the city of Tampa will lose should Hurricane Isaac actually materialize, would be substantial and regardless of political affiliation a Mayor of any large city, specifically in these hard economic times, faces substantial economic hardships – and the monies and publicity for the city as a travel destination due to the RNC Convention, would be sorely missed. Take this one with a grain of salt and an obvious mistrust of Democrats in general.

A larger political storm maybe brewing – New York’s Cardinal Timothy Dolan will be giving the benediction at the RNC when Mitt Romney officially becomes the GOP Nominee. Romney will also appear on EWTN (Catholic Cable Channel) in an interview that will air at 8 p.m. EDT on Thursday, August 23, 2012. (Zap2it.com) The Cardinal’s spokesman suggested that he would speak at either the DNC or RNC conventions, citing that the benediction was not an endorsement of any candidate. One would think that mean’s the Cardinal is protecting the Church because on surface, a church cannot endorse and or support a candidate publicly without the threat of loss of Non-Profit status. Additionally, the Catholic Church, in particular is not thrilled with the current administration – it is not only the issue of the President forcing religious affiliated organizations (specifically Catholic) to pay for abortions through their insurance coverage (against their faith as well as trampling on the Constitution), but goes deeper, into the administrations heavy hand when it comes to individual rights and limited freedoms. (See National Catholic Newspapers: the National Catholic Register, American Magazine Our Sunday Visitor, multiple publications off-line, and the Catholic News Service)

Adding to the drama this week The Denver Post reports that two professors, who have predicted the outcome of the Electoral College since 1980, based on economic forecast models, show Mitt Romney with a fairly large lead over President Obama: 320 (R) to 218 (D), the Huffington Post was quick to point this out and compare their own model which is more generous to the President showing a national split and several races up for grabs. That said, using a non-scientific method of measuring approval ratings state by state, over a 3 year period, with Gallup polling data, modeled on the 2012 electoral college and shift in votes away from traditional blue states to red (lost Congressional districts, and population affect the EC), the scenario is similar to the Denver University predictions.. (This blog).

A new Gallup poll released yesterday shows Romney’s lead (This week) with Romney 47 to Obama’s 45, still within the margin of error, however, climbing. Also check the latest Demographic Trends, specifically HHI: Romney leads in HHI of $39,000K and up, as well as among all Education Levels with the Exception of Post Graduate, by wide margins. Generally, the conventions would give a candidate (with nationwide coverage of the convention) a boost in the polls.

Abortion Not Likely A factor In Catholic Vote in 2010, Despite Church Inclusion in Health Care Reform Debate

A recent article in Politico suggested that the Democrat Party may lose the “Catholic Vote” in 2010 should abortion be included in the Health Care Reform plan that has gone to the Senate – the argument: that Catholic Bishops will play a factor in how the rank and file votes in upcoming elections should the Bill include abortion has never been tested.

The Catholic Identity versus the Political Identity of Catholics has, in the past, resulted in a run to the Party and away from Church Teachings. The 2008 elections were a testament to that fact, despite the increased efforts from Rome to educate Catholics on politics and abortion. Additionally, In the 11th hour of the 2008 Presidential Campaign, the Church began to make mention of abortion and the vote as it related to those Catholics who held political office and their pro-abortion stance. High profile Democrats: John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi openly espouse their “Catholic Identity" in an effort to sway their constituents, while being endorsed by abortion activists as being leaders of the pro-abortion movement in the United States (2008 List here). Several Catholic Priests, who openly opposed pro-abortion candidates, were quickly rebuked by both the press and the Church. As far as Barak Obama, the candidate, was concerned, he made no pretense of the fact that he was clearly pro-abortion; his support for late-term abortions was, for the most part, public knowledge.

The Catholic “excuse” at the time (2008) was – “war”. In an effort to assuage their “Catholic Identity”, Obama, the candidate of “peace”, was chosen over McCain, the candidate of “war”. The real motivator however, had little to do with religion – it was, and it remains – the economy. Fear that the Republican Party, seen as been “in control of the economy for eight years, despite the fact that Congress was, for two of those years, a Democrat majority, pushed the Catholic Vote towards the Democrat who was going to fix the economy, and a host of other issues – abortion was simply not a factor. In the month before the campaign ended polls supported an Obama win, based solely on the economy.

Although the Catholic Bishops, appeared to have some say in the Stupak Amendment, it remains doubtful that a social issue will be the driving force against Health Care Reform. What will drive this particular vote is economics. The rank and file Catholic is well aware of the cost of the bill and the current state of the economy. It is a question of what will happen when it comes time to pay for additional government programs that will be the driving factor – this time, abortion will be the “excuse.”

Although a poll by Gallop in May of this year, suggests that more American’s consider themselves pro-life, since that pollster began asking the question in 1995, recent polls suggest the economy and health care reform are top on the minds of most Americans. In fact a recent survey by Rasmussen, shows 85% of the respondents chose the economy as the top issue.

Therefore, the probablity exists that those that are attempting to drive the conversation away from the economic factors of Health Care Reform, though “fear of Rome and the Catholic Church in general”, are missing the mark. The evangelical Christians, who decided to sit out the election in 2008, as there were no acceptable Republican candidates. As early as 2007, James Dobson and a host of evangelical leaders decided they would not support any Republican nominee (Video here. He went further, in 2008, Dobson specifically stated that he would not support McCain (see James Dobson on not voting for McCain in 2008 here). The loss of the evangelical vote propelled Obama into office, and maintained the Democrat majority in the House and Senate. Therefore, moving the conversation away from the economy to the abortion issue, is doing nothing more than announcing to those Catholics who do follow the Church’s teachings, that they will be joining the ranks of those millions of evangelical social issue voters who will come roaring back to the polls in 2010 and 2010.