Election 2009 – State-wide Elections trend Republican, Congressional Races Trend Democrat – Analysis

The State of New Jersey and the Commonwealth of Virginia both elected Republican Gubernatorial candidates; Bob McDonnell took Virginia by a margin of 18% the state had last voted for a Democrat in 2005 who won by a margin of approximately 5%. Additionally, yesterday saw a sweep, as both the offices of Lt. Governor and Attorney General went to the Republican candidates. In New Jersey, the trend towards Republican Chris Christie was more pronounced, although the margin was 5%, that spoke volumes, as a third party candidate, , Chris Daggett took 6% of the vote.

Historically, New Jersey, like Massachusetts to the north, is considered a Democrat “stronghold”, a Republican has not held that seat since 1997 when Christine Todd Whitman struggled to achieve victory with a 1% margin. In New Jersey, the Incumbent Corzine, was struggling with low approval ratings, and New Jersey has a tax rate, as of 2008, that was 2 points higher than Massachusetts’ , (2009 might show that both states tax burdens have risen due to new taxes imposed on both New Jersey and Massachusetts residents).

Two special elections to fill U.S. Congressional vacancies were won by the Democrat candidate in both New York’s 23rd and California’s 10th Congressional districts. The New York 23rd race garnered most of the national attention due to an apparent “schism” within the Republican Party. The results, however, in the 23rd, upon closer inspection of the incomplete results (not all counties had reported in as of 11:30 pm est.), show Owen’s with 50% of the vote, Hoffman, the Independent New York Conservative Party Candidate with 44.7%, and Dede Scozzafava, the Republican who had dropped out of the race this past weekend, with 5.3% of the vote. That leaves Owen’s victory (considering the New York Republican Party endorsed candidate and the Conservative Candidate combined are at exactly 50 %,) a virtual Republican/Conservative tie.

In the California 10th District, the Democrat, John Garamendi, took the seat by 10 points over Republican Harmon, which was in line with the last CBS/USA Survey poll. That said, the district is heavily Democrat, by 18%, , leaving 8% off the table.

In both local elections, the results are not stellar for the Democrat Party, considering the spread in California’s 10th and , what amounted to “Scozzafava’s” Party Brand as a Republican, leading to a Win for the Democrat.

Were the election results in these four contests a referendum on the President? The question being asked by every media outlet, and using “exit” polls to prove otherwise, (exit polls not always the most reliable (see election 2004where television network exit polling gave the election early to John Kerry, while actual vote count was the opposite) assume that this was more of a local issue, or a referendum on the economy. That said the President and Vice President both spent a great deal of time in three of the four states, especially New Jersey and New York. It goes to popularity and to trust. The general public may be willing to give Obama a pass, personally, but apparently are not willing to vote upon his endorsement of a particular candidate. Additional issues of health care reform, the economy and jobs contributed to the outcome in all four districts, which should send a clear message to those in the Senate and the House facing re-election next year that they will either outright lose their seats or face a very tough challenge from either a Republican and/or Conservative candidate. Additionally, history is not on the side of those incumbents that are affiliated with the “party in power”, as off-year elections generally swing to the opposition party. Therefore it is highly probable that, come 2010, the Congress will be held by the Republican Party, with a White House controlled by the lone Democrat, Obama. One of two situations would then develop. Either the President would begin to govern from the middle (which is highly improbable given his decisions to date being left of center) or should that occur the Congress would stop any further legislation that would be considered “progressive” from getting to his desk. At this point, getting nothing done at all would be preferable to passing legislation that would increase our national debt, increase the role of government, and ultimately increase taxes – the burden of which would fall mainly on the middle class.

Tuesday Elections – Will they be Predictive of 2010? Analysis VA, NJ, NY 23, California 10th and the Massachusetts Special Election - Senate Race

On Tuesday, four states are holding elections that have the eyes of the nation’s pundits and political party analysts doing a bit of hand-wringing. The Virginia Governor’s race is all but a foregone conclusion (these deductions are based on poll data from Real Clear Politics) with the race for Governor’s (and the balance of the majority of the State’s offices) going Republican. In New Jersey, it remains too close to call, as those same polls have either Corzine or Christie, up by any number of points, with Dagget, the independent in the mix; that said, the majority of the polls favor Christie, which in that Democrat stronghold, should Christie emerge as the victor, that is a real coup for the Republican Party.

The New York 23rd district and the California 10th are in play due to congressional representatives taking positions within the Obama administration. The New York 10th is being watched as it’s a drama based race, the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, bowed out of the race due to low poll numbers and has endorsed the Democrat, over Conservative Doug Hoffman. One can, given that last minute endorsement which, as her core constituency was those who would vote Republican, for the most part, those votes should transfer to either Hoffman and/or voters may still give Scozzafava the vote – whether it counts or no. In that race, like New Jersey, polls are up and down, that said; – consider that race, to likely go to Hoffman (based on those Scozzafava voters who would only vote Republican, pulling the lever for a like-minded Conservative.

Additionally, the California 10th, which has been underreported, finds the latest local news poll (CBS 5) with Democrat Garamendi up by 10 points over the Republican Harmer. Under most circumstances one would assume, given that the district is considered solid Democrat, that the Democrat would basically run away with the seat – however, something is afoot – certain conservative PAC;s have turned their attention to the 10th (and the NY 23rd and the New Jersey Governor’s race) in the past 48 hours.

This can only indicate one thing – the GOP nor for that matter any conservative, is never known to throw “good money after bad” – they may “smell blood” – If Harmon doesn’t outright win the election, then the fact that he comes within striking distance of the Democrat in this particular district is a real signal as to how hard the Democrats must work to keep their jobs in 2010.

Historically speaking, the house changes hand every three to four terms (or 4 to six years) – As the Democrats have controlled both houses since 2006, historical logic dictates that it is probable a change is going to occur giving Republican’s the edge. Therefore, two of the four races, historically would go Republican (the same is true for state Governors, a back and forth between political parties is the norm) that said, should three or all four of the races turn to the “right”, then that would herald something a bit more interesting, a shift in the mindset of the voting populace towards the right. Once the dust clears, it will be interesting to see how these states and districts voted by party affiliation – as it may not only be a rejection of the Democrat by Republicans (given), or Independents (looking increasingly given) but by the rank and file (moderates) of the Democrat Party).

If the GOP or the NRSC throw anything at all to the Special Election in Massachusetts in January, then the handwriting will be further imprinted upon the wall. In the special election to replace Ted Kennedy, a primary battle of some media magnitude is being hard fought by the Democrats, Coakley, Capuano and Pagliuca and Khaezi, as of this writing that, although the GOP has a viable candidate in Republican Scott Brown, he must face a primary from Jackie Robinson, who filed signatures last week . Should Brown win the primary in December (which give his grassroots campaign and Robinson’s lack thereof), if the NRSC and the GOP start to throw anything at all in Brown’s direction, that will signal more than an historical electoral pattern. Although, many pundits are now calling this race, “safe” by virtue of Massachusetts being Massachusetts, this is the next race to watch as far as the state of mind of the voting electorate. Should Brown receive any support from the RNC (NRSC) and become the second Republican Senator in over 3 decades from Massachusetts, that will be clearly indicative of the mind of the electorate, and the end to purely party driven voting for at the very least the 2010 and possibly 2012 cycles.

Obama Faces A Fourth Front – The California 10th – Local Media: “Race to Replace Tauscher may be closer than first thought”

There’s been a good deal of attention (for those political junkies paying attention) to three particular races: the New York 23rd Congressional, and Virginia and New Jersey’s Governor’s seats, but a 4th exists – the California 10th. The seat, which was left vacant (similar to the 23rd), when Obama elevated Ellen Tauscher to a position in the State Department. On Tuesday, California 10th district voters go to the polls to choose either Republican David Harmer or John Garamendi, who survived a brutal Democrat primary.

According to local news outlet KCBS the race may not be a given, even though this district actually trends Democrat. According to the California Secretary of State’s office voter registration in the 10th district (as of February 2009), counts 368,484 registered voters, 47 percent Democrat, 29% Republican, 2.9% American Independent and .58% Green Party and additional count includes 1527 voters of whom 19.8% are uncommitted to any party, Libertarian, Peace and Freedom make up the balance. This should indicate a landslide for the Democrat running, that said, as with any off season election, the get out the vote drive is lackluster at best (New York 23rd may be the exception), and disenfranchised moderate Democrats may be more independent minded as of late. (These are the type of Democrats that reject left of center ideology and spending - similar to Democrats who were referred to as Reagan Democrats in the late 1970’s - remember that little “revolution” began in California all due to the Carter Phenomenon.) The last polling found on this particular race was for the Democrat primary. This race, perhaps more so than the other three, bears watching. Should the Republican take a healthy percentage of the vote (45%), or even win the seat (which according to local media, is probable), then this would signal a real rejection of the current modus operandi in place in Washington. Of the "big 3" races, the New York 23rd currently has Conservative Doug Hoffman in the lead, Virgina has Republican McDonnell leading by double digits, and New Jersey is too close to call, however, the Independent Candidate (similar ideology to Corzine)has lost ground in the past week, giving Corzine a slight edge over the Republican - the poll was conducted by Quinnipiac and with less than a week to go 19% of those polled are "undecided" making this any ones race.