Press Decries Gender Gap in GOP Leadership with Murkowski’s Primary Loss – Looking to the Future – Fiorina, McMahon, Ayotte and Angle

From Politico: a new article entitled: “Senate GOP's new gender” speaks to the primary loss of Alaska’s Linda Murkowski (R-AK), as if she were the last capable woman in the GOP in the Senate. It was the leadership role that Murkowski had in the Senate, that the author at Politico is apparently mourning, and the fact that Collins (R-ME) or Snow (R-ME), or Hutchinson (R-TX) are the only three GOP women left to choose from.

Apparently, it’s the standard GOP equals old white men cry of Progressives that is understood in the context of this article. One must say – it is a tad too early to project the makeup of the Senate as of November 3, 2010, but one can bet that there will be several qualified women joining Snow, Collins and Hutchinson.

The author goes on to speak of the gap between the two political parties, noting that the Democrats have twelve women to choose from, including Barbara Boxer – which said numbers may be lower as of the 3rd. The implication: Democrats field more women candidates, which is, in itself, not exactly true.

An honest assessment of the women who are poised to take Senate Seats, also includes several who are more than capable of assuming leadership roles, not least among them, Carly Fiorina (R-CA) who is now leading Barbara Boxer in the polls (See Real Clear Politics) In addition, one has to pay close attention for former business executive Linda McMahon (R-CT) who is closing a huge gap between her opponent, Richard Blumenthal, who is not without baggage. Although there are no September polls posted, it would appear likely that McMahon will have gained another point or two in the past month – and that this race will be tight, but winnable for the GOP.

In New Hampshire, one finds Kelly Ayotte with a lead against Democrat Paul Hodes and finally, one has to seriously look at the Nevada race, where Harry Reid after pouring millions into the Nevada sand is still struggling to gain traction against Tea Party/Republican candidate Susan Angle. Polls from August show them at a statistical dead heat.

Therefore, the real story is that there are more women running for Senate on the GOP ticket and that, as a feminist, is heartening to say the least. The fact that a woman runs, and loses is no shame either; it is that competence and gender do not go hand in hand. From this perspective, a vote based on gender without concern to qualifications is no better or worse than a vote based on ethnicity or race, for the same reasons. That said, it sure is heartening to see these women, conservative women, running successful campaigns against entrenched men (for the most part – exception: Boxer).
One has to wonder how well Politico will handle the ensuing presidential contest for 2012, where odds are not out of the question that Sarah Palin will face Hillary Clinton (not Barak Obama) for the Presidency.

Courtesy of Breitbart TV, the first Hillary for President 2012 advertisement. How many democrats feel that had the choice of Super Delegates been different, their party would not be faced with the massive losses this November, and the nation, as a whole, would be in better shape? Of course, at this point, it is all supposition, but nothing pleases more than a progressive pundit (female at that), being forced to choose between the most Progressive President this nation has seen, and a Centrist Democrat and former Goldwater Girl come the primaries of 2012. One has to recall the venom these same journalists who scream disparity for women, used to push their own Hillary Clinton under the bus, in order to elect Barak Obama.

2010 Control of the Senate - Review Shows GOP within Striking Distance of Taking Both Houses

Politicois suggesting that the fate of the Democrats control of the Senate rests with three Democrats: Feingold (D-WI), Boxer(D-CA) and Murray (D-WA). The premise of the Politico article is that it was thought highly unlikely that the aforementioned would be in any real “danger” of losing a seat held since 1992, the year Bill Clinton was elected. Incidentally, that election preceded the 1994 Republican landslide which saw the GOP take control of both houses.

At that time, the pollsters reviewing the Generic Ballot (a measurement based on a hypothetical choice between the two major political parties), especially Gallup, gave the Republicans a a 5 point lead over their Democrat counterparts. In 2006, the Democrats led by 7 points and today, the GOP leads by an historical 10 points, which is a high point for the party in the history of Gallup polling.

Out of those three chosen by Politico as being on the proverbial chopping block, it is realistic that one, perhaps two will be retired come November: Boxer (D-CA) and Feingold (D-WI).
Statistically, the lead for the GOP may come from other states, currently considered “Leans Democrat”. If one reviews the polls at Real Clear Politics one finds a map that currently shows: Democrats: 44 Safe or not up for reelection versus Republican: 34 safe or not up for reelection, with those states deemed either safe Democrat or safe Republican by the pollsters, pushing the totals to 48 Democrat and 44 Republicans.

It is, according to Real Clear Politics, the Tossups (8) that will determine which party eventually has 51 seats and Control of the Senate. The Toss-Ups are Boxer (D-CA), Bennet (D-CO), Florida (Open-R), Illinois (Open-D), Nevada (Reid-D), Ohio (Open-R), Murray (D-WA), and Fiengold (D-WI). However, it is still early in the game, being August and of those seats at this point, one can realistically see the following play out: Boxer, Bennet, Ohio, and Florida will be leans Republican within the month as will Illinois, Nevada will remain a Toss Up, as will Feingold and Murray.

Open seats are those where no incumbent of either party is running in an election year and Toss-ups are called by a statistical tie in the polls. Real Clear Politics uses a combination of all polls taken in any given race to determine an average. Pollsters include the Daily Kos (leans left) as well as Rasmussen (said to lean right). This blogs preferred pollster is the left leaning Public Policy Polling simply because it leans left, however, has had more accurate outcomes when it comes down to the final stages of a given race. As with all polls, there is plenty of room for error and bias, however, when margins go over 5 points, one can feel fairly safe betting on the outcome based on this pollster.

Polls, therefore, are the political junkie’s version of Reality TV.

There is a poll at Real Clear Politics that currently leans Democrat, which should be moving into the “Toss-up” or Leans Republican column shortly and that is the CT Race between McMahon(R) and Blumenthal (D). Blumenthal had a 34 point lead over Republican Linda McMahon pre-primary, which one post primary poll shows the lead reduced to 7 points, the last poll was taken August 11th.

Therefore, it may not be Patty Murray that tips the balance for the GOP or Russ Feingold for that matter, but an Open CT seat which suddenly turns to the right in early September. At present, states shown as Leans Democrat, have yet to hold primaries (due Sept. 14th), including New York, where Gillibrand holds a 19 to 23 point lead over the three Republican Contenders, comparing New York to Connecticut, where the political landscape is similar, one should watch that race once the primary closes, and the margins begin to tighten.

Based on the above, the GOP stands a better than average chance of picking off the 51 seats needed to take control of the Senate. The story will continue to unfold and tighter polling data should become available 3 weeks out (or 1st Week of October) which will be truly indicative of which party will triumph in 2010. Until then, speculation is base on the polls and unfortunately past state voting trends. With this election, that should not be factored, given the angst against incumbents that has crossed party lines. (See AK, Murkowski)

A Side Note on personal perspectives.
As there are primaries in Massachusetts on the 14th of September, and having gone door to door for a Congressional Candidate, the objective being to introduce the candidate to both Republicans and Independents in an approx. 8 block area that was predominately Democrat. In the process of knocking on doors, the Democrats visited were most enthusiastic – took the literature, and asked in-depth questions about the Candidate. What is telling in this small cross section is that the candidate is a Republican. It may be one small section in one medium sized city, in a blue state, where the “straw that broke the camel’s back” has many Democrats, either committed to or considering voting for a Republican for the first (second in some cases see: Scott Brown), a Republican. As Massachusetts is considered “safe democrat” on all seats, with the exception of the 10th (toss-up), it will be interesting to see if enough interest is generated amongst pollsters after the primary on the 14th to even begin polling – those polls will be indicative of what will happen to those Senate Seats in play. It would go to the general “mood” of the electorate by Party. Also, if one has never gone door to door, it is an eye opening experience as to the number of people who are actually paying attention to what is going on in the political theater.

As America Turns – Polls Suggest The Political Pendulum Swings in Favor of Conservatism in Government - Reid, Dodd, Boxer - Out - Analysis

Several polls released over the past two months suggest that, against all odds (as purported by the media, pundits and the current political party in charge), there will be a change or elimination of Party control over one or both houses of Congress in 2010. The polling to date, which is reminiscent of polls taken in 2005-2006 and again in 2007-2008, shows either a total or growing lack of support for an incumbent – which is not historically unusual when one political party controls all branches of government.

High profile Democrats who are most likely to be replaced in 2010 include:
Barbara Boxer (Senate: D-CA) who is holding onto a narrow margin against a yet-undeclared, Carly Fiorina. Fiorina, former Hewlett Packard CEO, is currently polling at 41% to Boxers 45% (Rasmussen, an increase over a previous poll taken in March (Boxer 47%/Fiorina 38%).

Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader, (D-NV), is most likely to be replaced by Republican Sue Lowden, who is polling ahead of Reid by 6 points (and has yet to formally enter the race). Reid’s popularity with Nevada voters is low - 45% of voters polled would replace him.

The list from Real Clear Politics (a compilation and average of several pollsters per candidate) is telling:

Chris Dodd (Senate: D-CT), is trailing Republican Rob Simmons by 1 to 9 points (Quinnipiac), the only discrepancy is a Daily Koss Poll which gives Dodd 5 points over Simmons.

Christ handily bests Democrat Kendrick Meek in Florida’s Senate Race by 18 to 31 points.

In Illinois, Mark Kirk, Republican, is besting incumbent Burris for the Senate by 34 points, the Daily Koss poll suggests that Burris is besting Kirk by 7 points (a pattern is developing here).

In Pennsylvania, Toomey (Republican) bests Specter (former Republican turned Democrat) by 12 points (Koss has Specter beating Toomey by 5 points).

Of interest, general polling regarding current issues also suggests a turn towards conservatism:
Regarding the proposed Health Care Reform 54 % of American’s feel passing no reform would be better than the current congressional plan., and a new Gallup Poll suggests that American’s view themselves more as conservatives in all 50 states.

Some may suggest that this trend towards Republicans and Conservatism in general has been brought about by the current administrations programs, which run left of center, which may, in part, be true. That said, with the thirst for change constant in most American’s minds, those who don’t eat, breathe and live for politics (the majority) may be viewing the political arena in terms of a reality television show. As the personalities of politician’s morphed into “Star Status”, the opportunity for the general public to become disenfranchised rose proportionately. Once the charisma of any given personality loses its luster, the public turns to the next “contestant”, literally voting the “star” (incumbent) off the island. Although some progressives in education assert that control of the masses (and control of the votes), by dumbing down America, would ensure a change in government; the miscalculation of the appeal of quick changes and celebrity fascination with quick dismissal, never entered into the equation. More to the point, the American Independent Voter, once again, believed a political campaign promises (or slew of promises), and as these promises evaporated, or have not taken place at lightning speed (which would be impossible); they have shifted focus to the opposing party.