The Potentials – Bush, Paul, Cruz, Perry , Christie and the middle and the base 2016 GOP Maybes

Opinion

There is a lot of speculation going into the 2016 GOP presidential sweepstakes given the fact that not one person has yet announced an intent to run. Although there have been a slew of polls suggesting that one or the other at any given time is the leader of a large field of candidates. From this perspective, there are few possible contenders and fewer that would make it past South Carolina given the base and those independents who were detrimental in bringing the house and the senate to the GOP.

However, that does not stop the middle of the road, dynastic characters (or also ran multiple times) candidates from suggesting they may run, keeping pollsters thrilled to have new fodder for the press.

The GOP – the national GOP loves candidates that are so moderate they would be considered the opposition if they were running as a Democrat (which they could, easily given their stance on issues ranging from immigration to Common Core.)

The only question one needs to ask at this point, since there are truly only a handful of possible contenders is which of those would make it through the first three primaries and, as no one has yet truly announced, and set up shop in Iowa, then it’s all for naught.

Maybe. What polls do is fuel news, and adding in those who most likely will not run, or most definitely will not succeed if they do, aids in hardening the minds of those who are on the fence, or suggesting they would make an announcement in the spring, or even the summer of 2015. In the reality of the 24 hour news cycle and the fact that one needs to get to know the character in question in order to consider them for any job, the sooner announced the better. That said, once announced, the actual opposition (Democrats and Press) will have time to either undermine that announced individual one way or the other, or, find food for fodder to be used at a later date should that individual succeed in making it to the primary gauntlet. That’s before the national GOP determines it has a winner in the group –or outside the group and will do it’s best to help anyone with opposition in order to stymie someone who could actually win, both the primaries and the general, especially if that one is considered an outsider.

Shades of Ronald Reagan, who the National GOP despised and did everything in their power to derail –until he won and went on to become of the most iconic figures in GOP history – so now they use his memory as the standard. He’s turning over in his grave with their last two election choices, one can just imagine.

The take on things as they stand with those most likely to announce:

Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida and the bother and son of two former Presidents – he is, in all likelihood, perhaps the best equipped having been a governor as well as having been in the White House under two administrations, if not in a policy sense, in a family sense. Obviously, this is dynastic, the one thing that is a deterrent in this cycle – familiar faces. Additionally he embraces several ideologies most often reserved for those of the opposition party. He would, while running, suggest he’s the most conservative (al –la Mitt Romney) and would never make it out of Iowa

Chris Christie, the current Governor of the over-taxed State of New Jersey and an individual who does not do well in a crisis. (See Sandy and his meltdown with the President). Enough said.

Paul, who is the Senator from Kentucky and the son of Congressman Ron Paul, who ran multiple times on the ticket and is a bit quirky at times (kindly put). He is an obvious threat to the opposition party, given the local politicians, such as newly defeated Alison Lundergan-Grimes, Kentucky Democrat who lost her Senate bid to Mitch McConnell, not without help from Rand Paul, is using Paul’s name as a way to ingratiate herself with the base – she intends to insure he cannot run for Senate and the White House at the same time (Politico). With that in mind, Paul, on his part, fires off shots to those newscasters left and right who are seeking that one thing to upend him. The man appeals to the right, the middle and, holy smokes, Democrats. He’s libertarian leaning, and he’s the epitome of George Washington. Surely there is something wrong – yet, something makes him the best bet.

Ted Cruz, who one either loves or hates, is a firebrand who has his name mentioned more often than not and the Senator from the State of Texas who is righteous. So much so he antagonizes those that hate change (DC Politicians) so much that the fire barbs at him constantly, especially when he’s right and especially those in his own party. As to the Presidency, that’s iffy at best. Future Majority Leader of the Senate.

Rick Perry, outgoing Governor of Texas and a force to be reckoned with, if you’re a coyote, a GOP hopeful or a Democrat – it is what it is – he looks smart, he is smart, and he can point to successes as a Governor. Of course there is baggage - however, not so much this man can’t carry all of it. Should he run, he will be giving Rand Paul a run for his money. Keep in mind, the key elements here are someone who is smart or looks smart and can back it up, must be able to slap the media around and the opposition if they start getting testy, and does not make any bones about whatever position they have at a given moment. In other words, someone how is ridiculously honest and human, but most importantly reveres the Constitution for what it is.

There are also a few others who can jump in at any time, and announce, and of course, that makes it a game changer, but these are the current best known for being in the news, with the broadest base and the most support. Of the group 2 have potential to run through the primaries. The other’s certainly can run, along with a few that may muddle the waters here and there, but at this time, in this day, at this hour, those that do come forth to run, had best understand that they will be running not only against each other, but the National GOP, the National Press and the National DNC, and running for the people. In addition, they have to be able to bitchslap the first three into reality in order to truly appeal to those voters on the right the left and the middle who no longer care about labels.

However, that may have to be true for other, not yet announced or known candidates should this bunch decide not to enter the ring. This is especially true given the only one that even hinted at announcing, doesn’t’ stand a snowballs chance of Hades getting out of Iowa or the Carolinas.

Rand Paul Vs. Rick Perry – Who Cares?

The last few days saw dueling headlines - the first salvo from Rick Perry, Governor of Texas and, as it happens, a 2016 possible GOP presidential candidate – Perry wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post, blasting Paul for being an isolationist. (Washington Post). What followed was a few other aging GOP’ers joining in the “Pile on” (Politico) of Rand Paul.

Rand Paul, Kentucky Senator, and also, as happens, 2016 potential GOP presidential candidate leading in multiple polls, responded with a sense of humor, laced with heavy sarcasm vis a vis, Governor Perry’s op-ed (Newsweek)

Therefore, as the pundits call it the splitting of the factions of the Republican Party, one who’s got more sense sees it as two candidates with cheerleaders for either both or possibly other candidates, duking it out early for that first place spot on the poll charts – otherwise known as political maneuvering.

When it comes to Democrats, they do have that one thing in common – lockstep. Which can be extremely boring when going into a national election where the county is seeking leaders who will stand out from the bunch of usual tried and true’s from both parties? That’s where both Perry and Paul come in and shine with the normal folk, from both parties and those darn independents that can swing an election.

Some might call it entertaining, and nothing more. Suffice it to say, either of the two aforementioned, would lead and be capable of projecting leadership – different styles to be sure, but both acceptable. Both constitutionalists, both using the word “Liberty” a good deal, and both fiscally sound. Nothing more to see here.

2016 Begins - Rand Paul Headed for New Hampshire – PPP Poll Show Paul Gaining Ground on Christie While Clinton Leads Overall – for Now

The 2016 Field Suggested by PP

Senator Rand Paul will be in New Hampshire in Mayto attend the New Hampshire GOP Liberty Dinner. Rand Paul will be the first potential 2016 candidate to step foot in the Granite State, according to CNN. Paul is also schedule to attend Lincoln Day Dinner in Cedar Rapids, Iowa in May(USA Today). This puts the Kentucky Senator in the two “first” states for 2016 – the first primary being held in New Hampshire and the first caucus being held in Iowa. To those watching the 2016 field begin to unfold, it is a clear sign that Paul has intentions of running for the Oval Office.

If one questions how well Rand Paul would fare, Public Policy Polling has begun their 2016 survey’s – the Miami Herald offers an overview of the poll which shows Paul gaining significant ground on Marc Rubio (R-FL), now coming in second place, pushing New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to 3rd. On the Democrat side, it is clear, at this point, that Hillary Clinton has the majority of support, followed by V.P. Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren (the new Democrat Senator from Massachusetts) and rounding out the field, Andrew Cuomo of New York. This poll shows Clinton besting all rivals, on both sides, but in match-ups against Republican’s the margin is at 7% approximately – Christie fares the best (Clinton 46, Christie 42), with Rand Paul in second (Clinton 49, Paul 43)(Miami Herald)

In reality it is still far too early to poll seriously, given the fact that there are potential candidates on both sides of the usual aisles that have not either been included in the polling, or have not come to the forefront. There are two key points that can be taken from PPP’s early polling. The first is that Rand Paul is a potential candidate that requires watching. His brand of Libertarian Republicanism appeals across a broad spectrum, which includes individuals from both parties. He is young, and fresh, compared with the balance of those forecasted (with the obvious exception of Marc Rubio). Hillary Clinton commands serious speculation; however, one must be wary of the powers that be in the Democrat machine when it comes to Clinton. She is more than qualified, as she was in 2008 (compared to the field which included John McCain and Barack Obama). However, despite winning the popular vote in the primary, she was shut down at the Democrat Convention as the party leaders used Super-Delegates to oust Clinton and hand Barack Obama the nomination. Those operatives in the same Progressive segment of the Democrat Party have decided to push one Elizabeth Warren in 2016 – should Clinton decide to throw her hat in the ring, Warren if she runs as she told to do – and one could very well see a repeat of the Super Delegates voting the half term Senator from Massachustts to the top of the ticket. Warren, a former Harvard Professor, sailed to a win in Massachusetts against the popular Scott Brown, basically due to Massachusetts Democrat Leanings, during a general election, on a ticket with Barack Obama, who has one of his highest approval ratings in the nation in Massachustts. In other words, Democrats swept Massachusetts on Barack Obama’s coattails. This does not bode well for a general election candidate on their own, regardless of, or perhaps especially if that candidate is a woman.

From the perspective of a feminist, Clinton was the no-brainer candidate in 2008, the one chance the Democrats had of being the first major political party to put a woman in the White House. Statistically, the odds are not good that there would be a woman nominated in such a short period of time (given the 3 decades between the first woman to be nominated to the bottom of a ticket, (Ferraro) and the last to e nominated to the bottom of a ticket (Palin), and in both cases, that ticket lost. Have hearts and minds towards women in leadership positions changed in the last eight years? That is the question, which, political correctness aside, anyone with any sense understands it has not. The only woman that would stand a chance and only a chance of besting an opponent would be Clinton, and that would strongly depend upon who the opponent might be.

Clinton comes across are formidable, out of all the candidates named in the PPP poll. However, a mere 7 points separates her, even this early in the game from the GOP names tossed into the poll. Pretending all things are equal and Clinton would be viewed on a par with male counterparts, and would be treated the same by media and the populace in general, she would have a dickens of a time against the Doctor turned Senator from Kentucky. Paul would have no problem with the youth vote, his fiscal conservative credentials would bode well with the Republican base, with the exception of some social conservatives that may have a problem with his stance certain positions – however, that said, his stance on those positions from a Libertarian standpoint, coincide with the Constitution – giving States the power to decide social issues - that’s a plus and could easily be used as a persuadable. He’s already shown he can cross partisan line (See the variety of supporters of his now-infamous drone filibuster.), and to boot, he’s younger. The later attribute should not be a factor, however, it was used successfully in the last two elections, the first with John McCain, no need to explain that one, and the second, with Romney as being “out-of-touch”, parodies as being more from the 50’s - not quite as “hip” as the President. It was pitting Thurston Howell the Third, against James Dean. Therefore, if one were looking through a crystal ball (which does not exist), at the current crop mentioned in the PPO poll, one would see Paul taking the GOP primary field, and, based on recent history, Elizabeth Warren as the opponent. No need to speculate on the outcome there. To be fair, it would be difficult for any Democrat to contrast themselves to Paul’s brand of Republicanism, unless the Democrat nominee were to come out of the closet as a Socialist and all that implies. The only powers capable of mucking up the waters on both sides of the spectrum are the party players not mentioned those in the National GOP and DNC, especially if one is running as a Republican.

All said and done, it is still wildly early to speculate, as again, there are the unknowns at this point, and far too many variables that exist, given the year before one starts to see those who would begin to challenge. That should logically occur after the mid-terms in 2014.

2016 Prospects - Rick Perry, Governor of Texas – Media Looks at Perry as Possible 2016 GOP Candidate

Governor Rick Perry with a puppy, known dog lover - photo used to lampoon Perry by papermag.com

The Governor of Texas, Rick Perry, has picked up a bit of national news as of late, as the media begins an early look at who may or may not run for President in 2016. Politico’s article “Rick Perry’s Second Chance” suggests that the Governor’s prospects for a Presidential run, given the damaged brand of the GOP, and his poor showing in the last 2012 primary, are non-existent. Perry, who is the longest serving Governor in the State of Texas, yet, Politico points to the “talented field of current GOP prospects”. The article also highlights the facts that most candidates have lost a primary before attaining a nomination, included are Ronald Reagan, John McCain, and Mitt Romney.

That said, the media is not taking any chances – the Hartford Courant, on January 4th, published an op-ed titled “Texas, Perry Ramp Up War On Women” referencing the suit brought against Texas by Planned Parenthood for state funding (i.e. forcing Texas to pay for Planned Parenthood’s inclusion into the State Health Plan via a restraining order which a Federal Judge swiftly denied). Thus the “war on women”, which really is a rejection of Planned Parenthood. Perry, on his part, issued a press release, “Gov. Rick Perry released the following statement on the Travis County court's decision to deny Planned Parenthood's temporary restraining order attempting to force inclusion of the organization in the Texas Women's Health Program:

"Today's ruling finally clears the way for thousands of low-income Texas women to access much-needed care, while at the same time respecting the values and laws of our state. I applaud all those who stand ready to help these women live healthy lives without sending taxpayer money to abortion providers and their affiliates." (State of Texas, Governor’s office)

Although it’s fairly early in the 2012 political game, and the chance that any of those who are now on the media watch list as potentials, won’t even run in 2016 is more probable, Governor Rick Perry would be a solid candidate, guns, religion and the ten gallon hat, but there is a better chance he’ll remain Govenor of Texas. Or President of the Republic of Texas, , should things go south with Harry Reid’s mad power grabs (see Harry Reid’s attempt to do away with the filibuster, his refusal to pass a budget, or let a budget from Congress even go to the floor - since 2009), and what’s left of the Federal Government become a one-party nightmare. (Granted this is far-flung, but just about as far flung as the Democrat Controlled Senate passing a budget), That said, most likely Govenor Perry, as an Austin resident, formerly from Massachusetts, formerly a Democrat speaks to the appeal of Rick Perry – “He can be Govenor for Life if he wants”, begs the question – How can a portrayed super right wing, religious zealot, have the support of former Massachustts Democrats along with former Progressives fleeing California in droves?

He gets the job done, he owns up if he thinks there’s been a mistake, (which is rare), he does what he does for the State of Texas – which is a destination or those who are not enamored of being over-taxed, or out of work. Or- maybe it’s the water or the air in Texas.

Yet the negative and imaginary political issues (and policy issues) with the Govenor are now being placed in the public arena, just in case he does decide to try again in 2016. Go figure. He is certainly not the type of leader that would satisfy those in the bubble that is Washington or the progressive press –in fact, he horrifies all of the aforementioned because he’s the “real deal” - bet on a moderate taking the helm of the GOP in 2016, because someone who has real convictions, regardless of the fact that they may governor legislate in a bi-partisan manner, is certainly a danger to the status quo.

Favorite Rick Perry Article – the Washington Post"Rick Perry Fatally Shoots Coyote". After laughing at “fatally shoots coyote”, the fact that the Governor, shot a wild animal that was attacking his dog, give him creds with those who might own – dogs.

2016 Speculation: Palin, Cruz, Clinton, Bush, Warren, and the Race to the top.

Sixteen of the potential GOP 2016 Candidates imagined by Politico - image Politico.com

The 2016 Presidential election may seem as if it is too far in the future for speculation to begin as to who will run in both parties, and to whom the two major political parties will “anoint” as the eventual winner, regardless of primaries. The speculation began before the first votes were cast in the 2012 election, as President Obama, as was the case with Bill Clinton and George Bush, will not be eligible to run for a third term (regardless of the rumors to the contrary regarding President Obama). Generally speaking those who appear in the early lists generally don’t throw their hats in the ring when it comes down to the wire (see Palin, Huckabee, and Jindel for example in 2011-2012), but for giggles, the early list:

From Politico: : Bobby Jindel (R-Governor of Louisiana) , John Kasich (R-Governor of Ohio), Bob McDonnell (R-Governor of Virginia), Martin O’Malley (D-Governor of MD), Vice President Joe Biden (D) Gov. Rick Perry (R-Governor of Texas) Mark Warner (D-Senator from Va.), Rick Santorum (R-2012 GOP Candidate), Rick Scott (R-Governor of Fl.), Jan Brewer (R-Governor of AZ),Scott Walker (R-Governor of Wisconsin, Susanna Martinez, (R-Governor of New Mexico) Hillary Clinton (D) and Andrew Cuomo (D-Governor of NY), Brian Schweitzer (D-Governor of Montana)(Washington Post), Ted Cruz (R-Senator TX) (Fox News), Sarah Palin (R)(Baltimore Sun), Jeb Bush (R), Marc Rubio (R-Senator FL), Rand Paul (R-KY), Bob Portman (R- Senator Ohio), Kelly Ayotte (R-Senate NH) (The Tacoma News Tribune) Mike Pence (R-Governor Indiana), Paul Ryan (R-Congress (WI), Brian Sandoval (R- Governor of NV), John Thune (R-Senate SD), Michelle Bachman (R-Congress MN), Chris Christie (R-Governor of NJ)(Politico), Julian Castro (D-Mayor of San Antonio) (USA Today), Newt Gingrich (R) (Politico) ,Elizabeth Warren (D-MA Senate)(Boston Magazine) - That’s the list for now.

If one were to consider that the GOP has a habit of nominating a candidate (or more to the point, appearing to push a candidate that has lost in a previous election (See John McCain, Bob Dole, Mitt Romney), then logic would dictate that the most likely of the bunch would be Rick Santorum or Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich), however, there’s Jeb Bush in the ring, so one may bet they’ll go the way of the dynasty. (Also consider that neither of the aforementioned would fit the GOP moderate mold.)

On the Democrat side, Hillary Clinton is already ahead in the buzz, however, the Democrats are going to need a hook, and they are going to focus, as they did in 2006-2008, on a little known woman, with little experience and very little national exposure – that’s Elizabeth Warren, darling of the Progressives.

That doesn’t stop the press from seeing a matchup between two political dynasties in a Bush vs. Clinton 2016 match-up(CNN).

What is interesting to this feminist is the fact that there are so many woman and much speculation as to 2016 Presidential runs on the GOP side: Bachman, Palin, Ayotte, Martinez, and Brewer, while on the DNC side one has Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren. Of the women listed, one can see Palin, Brewer, and Martinez going the distance (basing this on experience as Governors and having as far as having a grassroots base in place the tow at the top would be Brewer and Palin). However, to have the party that generally get’s the women’s vote (silly, $9.00 worth of Birth Control is more important somehow than fiscal sanity – which is contrary to feminism as most women must support themselves and their families, being independent of the male), has only two females that are mentioned, Hillary who would fall into the “owe a Presidency” (if she were in the GOP) column, and Elizabeth Warren – who with zero experience, and one slogan (Billionaires!) will be the most likely nominee and one can see a 2008 Democrat convention all over again (where Clinton would be robbed a second time!).

Names no on the list: Huckabee, Huntsman, and those who have yet to crawl out of the political woodwork.

The bigger question, in the course of the next two years, is will a third party emerge, along with a third party candidate, that will fit the bill enough to give the major parties a run for their money. On the GOP: side, there are several that have Tea Party Connections that are strong enough to carry an independent bid, Palin, Perry, Rand Paul (son of perennial Libertarian-Republican candidate, Ron Paul). There is only on one that would hold an Independent party on the DEM side, and that would be Elizabeth Warren, the Progressive Party (should they decide to go that route, which is highly unlikely). It would be healthy for the nation however, to see the large political parties split, as now there is a schism in both (although that argument is rarely framed), the Progressive Socialists who are driven by Unions, versus, the other “groups” that belong to the Democrats, and on the GOP side, the moderate do anything, say anything to get elected semi-fiscal conservatives, versus the social and fiscal conservatives – who would be either an Independent or Tea Party.

In any event, start watching late night TV in February, for who shows up on Letterman, and Leno, and of course, starts making the rounds of all the talk shows – fundraisers aside, (which is how Politico judges who may or may not throw hats into the ring), it is face time with the public in general that usually is a hint of what is to come.. .and the beat goes on.