2012 Polls – 2008 Revisited with a Vengeance – Huckabee and Clinton rise to the Top in early Polling.

Most Likely Match-up for 2012 - photo MTV.com

The old adage, “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me”, may be coming back to bite both national parties in the early polling leading to the not-so-distant 2012 election. Who will actually run for the Oval Office, is clearly, unknown at this time, that said, pollsters, and those with an almost unhealthy interest in politics, began polling almost immediately after Barack Obama’s inauguration. That said, one can see who may or may not be positioning for a run, just by appearances in certain states, fund on hand from previous runs, and PAC’s represented by that potential candidate.

The actual list of who’s running normally isn't available until at least mid to late 2010, when the invasion of Iowa and New Hampshire begins in earnest. However, it may be starting earlier this season, due to a lack of “hope” and little “change” that the public, with minimal patience when it comes to “rock stars” and “fame”, start seeking the next “public servant star”. This time, however, the odds of someone with a flair for expression, good looks, and snappy slogans, will be last on the list of choices – the public is seeking moderate to conservative, and safe candidates – one need only look at Real Clear Politics to get a sense of another phenomena – “out with the incumbent”, specifically if that incumbent even smacks of “hope and change”. Of note: Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, who is currently being bested, by not one, but two Republican’s who must face off in a primary. In essence, no matter which one wins the Primary, it is clear that Reid will be retired in 2010.

The polls, obviously , are subject to change, no so much in 2010, (unless, of course, there is a large scandal pinned to one of the hopefuls), but early races in 2009, see that tactic wearing thin. In the race for New Jerseys’ Governor’s Seat, the fight has gone to the school yard, with the incumbent, Corzine, accusing his opposition, Republican Chris Christy, of being “unfit for office”, literally, calling the slightly overweight challenger ”fat” in ads running across New Jersey. This sounds like desperation and naiveté, when the percentage of Americans who are considered “overweight’ is according to the CDC, a startling 67% - which translates into a landslide should 67% of voters take offense at the Governors tactics.

Negative campaign ads can work, but it must be subtle, not in your face, and or harping, while offering one solution (See series of ads ran by former Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healy, (Republican MA) against Deval Patrick (Democrat-MA). (Additionally, although touted as being one of the most liberal states in the nation, it is interesting to note that not one woman has been elected to a position of national import In a Statewide Race in the Commonwealth. The only woman to sit in the Governor’s office was Jane Swift, through an appointment, not an election, and she suffered the consequences as every move she made, regarding her femininity was scrutinized ad nausea. Therefore, any woman running in Massachusetts should understand that the glass ceiling has yet to be broken, therefore, the safest seats are those that either stay in state, or a U.S. Congressional District. This is one thing that is disheartening to any woman living in the Bay State and the one area where one hopes for change (regardless of Party). (Disclosure: Conservative Feminist)

Given that the 2012 polls are based on those individuals who a) ran in 2008, or b) appear to be positioning themselves for 2012, and or c) are being polled based on a lack of hope or change, an interesting pattern has developed that bears further scrutiny.

The nice guy: Mike Huckabee, who ran a shoestring campaign that saw the 10-1/2 term former Governor of Arkansas soundly stopped Mitt Romney, (a fiscal conservative who governed Massachusetts with an eye towards appeasing groups not necessarily associated with conservatives). Although both Huckabee and Romney saw McCain take the lead after Super Tuesday (See South Carolina, the only primary where Fred Thompson ran, splitting the Huckabee vote and giving just enough momentum to McCain to make him the frontrunner.) The facts stand that Huckabee took the South, the Midwest, and in states that McCain did win, (those that are winner take all), the leads were narrow, and 1 to 2 points separated the two candidates.) Romney did well in the northeast (Massachusetts – his “home state”), Michigan, Utah and Wyoming and in States such as California, where the delegates are apportioned based on a percentage of votes. Huckabee, however, continued to be well-liked, a well-rounded fiscal and social conservative that, through his program on FOX, consistently debates those with opposing views, and welcoming discourse to find a common ground. It is the way he governed Arkansas, making his tenure as Governor one of the most successful the State had seen. An astute Politician, but one that is sincere in his belief that he works “for the people” - Huckabee has a loyal following that has not waned since 2008. Therefore it should come as no surprise, that two recent polls have Huckabee on top. The first, the Iowa Values Voters Straw Poll (the earliest indicator of what may happen in the all important Iowa Caucus), (clearly dismissed as irrelevant by media pundits) saw Huckabee emerge as the winner. (Tim Pawlenty received a respectable 2nd). The first national poll of Republican “potential” candidates, by Rasmussen gave Huckabee the lead again, with Romney second, and Palin, Gingrich, and Pawlentry trailing amongst GOP voters.

Granted it is early, but one of the biggest voting blocks, which failed to come to the polls in force in 2008, (See: Top Evangelical Leaders urge no support of any GOP Candidate in 2008) and Despite large turnout for 2008 elections there was little change in the actual vote between 2004 and 2008. Coincidence – hardly, when one considers that 30 (conservative figure) of the top evangelical leaders basically told their flock – not to vote in 2008.

Times have changed, and with the ever decreasing dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs of the country (this is definitely split along party lines, with Democrats firmly (for the most part) behind the President, while Republican and Independents looking for alternatives. (See 2010 races).

What of the Democrats? Should Barack Obama continue his Carteresque drive over the proverbial cliff, a primary challenge (which occurs no matter who the sitting President is), may this time, see a change in who would be at the top of the DNC ticket. As buyer’s remorse has set in rather early, an interesting poll released by Gallop shows Hillary Clinton with a strong lead in the “popularity” contest that is American Politics. Not for nothing, but Clinton, who, had the popular vote counted, instead of the absolute coup mounted by those Super Delegates, would have been sitting in the White House. Moreover, one is given the impression, that both economics and foreign policy would be in better hands. Clinton had a clear 6 year senate voting record as a moderate, who voted on issues, not with an eye towards partisanship, rather an eye towards what might be best for the country. This, in the end, is what cost her the nod from die-hard leftists Kennedy, Kerry, Pelosi and the other progressive “Super Delegates” that foisted Barack Obama on the populace. Clinton, on her part, has said that she has no intention of running for the office, however, it is early, and one thing about Hillary, she cares about both her country and her party. In other words, Hillary Clinton, although not a “rock star” is “nice”, that said, it may be too little too late, as the mood of the country has shifted in recent months, and voters are taking a turn, that is not just moderate right, but farther right (which also, would, if the trend continues, leave Huckabee in a bit of a pickle).

Therefore, if nice guys are the ticket for 2012, those people that exude confidence and trust, one may see an interesting match up that should have taken place in 2008, Huckabee and Clinton, battling for the hearts and minds of the American People. It would be a political junkies dream come true and those progressive journalists (name a network, any network) worst nightmare – Double the fun.