Rasmussen: Gingrich Tops Field in Latest Poll by 21 Points, Trust in National Security at 36% over Nearest Competitor Mitt Romney - Analysis

The current 2012 field - image pensitoreview.com


Newt Gingrich has taken a significant lead in the lasted Rasmussen poll, topping Mitt Romney by 21 points to lead the field with 38%. The Poll taken on the 30th of November and released December 1st by Rasmussen was based on 1000 likely GOP voters with a margin of error of plus/minus 3. The balance of the candidates polled as follows: Romney 17%, Cain 8%, Paul 8%, and Perry 4%, Santorum 4%, Bachmann 4%, Huntsman 3%, other 3%, and a narrowing field of. Should Herman Cain drop out of the race, the pickup for other candidates appears to favor Gingrich and Romney, with Gingrich at 43% and Romney at 19%. What this implies is that, of those polled, Gingrich and Romney are now considered the two top candidates going into Iowa and New Hampshire in 4 weeks.

Additionally, given the high rating on National Security issues, those polled are most likely closing watching the debates; where one saw Gingrich poll numbers take a turn upward after the National Security Debate held on November 22, and sponsored broadcast on CNN. The poll, which featured 73% Identified Republican and the balance as other, also indicated that Gingrich has the lead among both Republicans and Other Affiliations, as well as across ideological lines, all religious affiliations lines with the exception of “other” which went to Mitt Romney.

How firmly are those polled tied to a particular candidate? 42% are certain of their vote for Gingrich, with 35% on the fence, while Romney has 18% certain and 17% on the fence. The race, therefore, remains somewhat fluid.

More over with the Iowa and New Hampshire caucus /primary on the horizon, there are three debates prior to the caucus and primary in New Hampshire: December 10, 2011, co - sponsored by the Des Moines Register and the Iowa Republican Party and broadcast on ABC News at 9:00 PM eastern, December 15th, on Fox sponsored by the Iowa Republican Party at 9PM eastern and finally December 19th, PBS sponsored by the Des Moines Register, Iowa Public Television, PBS NEWSHOUR, Google and YouTube, at 4 PM EST.
It will be the performance at the debates that will allow for these candidates to make their point, not only to the Republican and likely Republican voters in each state for the respective primacy and caucus, but for all viewers, regardless of political affiliation, who may be seeking an alternative within the Republican Party.

As of this past week, Gallup suggested that from an historical perspective: Obama’s job approval was not encouraging for reelection. The President has an approval rating in this third year that is consistent with that of Jimmy Carter, and historically, if he were to win reelection, it would be an anomaly.

As to Newt Gingrich – now that he is at the top of the field, he has come under “scrutiny” from both his opposition candidates as well as the media (to be expected) – However, there are fewer questions arising regarding Gingrich’s background due to the fact that, of all the candidates, he has been the most “vetted” throughout his public life. Additionally, Gingrich has the ability, from all appearances, to swat away any criticism with ease, and has no compunction about meeting journalist head on in any venue. On the other hand, Romney, as the closest to Gingrich in polling, has had a dismal performance with a Fox News Journalist, Bret Bair. Romney appeared more than a bit uncomfortable taking questions, which could be due to several factors, such as the tight schedule that these candidates keep, causing exhaustion, the end result being a somewhat “testy” candidate. There have been, across the field, good and bad debate performances; however, Gingrich appears to have performed the best, in the majority of debates.

Should polls for Gingrich push him about the 40 percentile going into the early caucus and primary states, and should he take two of three early states (or all three for that matter), then one might see an early front runner as the established candidate for the nomination.

Although detractors in the media and the DNC are touting Gingrich as the one which Obama would prefer as his opposition on the basis of the DNC running ads against Mitt Romney (which are predictably about his change on position over the years on a range of issues, making him akin to John Kerry, (D-MA), the King of the Flip-Flops) - it is somewhat odd that one would consider that a sign that Gingrich is the preferred candidate of Team Obama. It is the silence on Gingrich, which gives pause. Perhaps that is because he has not, in the minds of the Democrat strategists, been in the “front runner” long enough, and alternately, there is little for them to say about Gingrich, that cannot be doubled for either their current or previous office holder. It would appear therefore, that by attacking Romney, they are pushing his “front-runner” status, in hopes that he will be recognized as the perpetual front runner, and that it is Romney who they would prefer to run against Barack Obama.

The aforementioned conclusion based on the fact, that consistently, as poll watchers, analysis and strategist, surely noted Romney holding 20 to 25% over the past 8 years, which, when taken in context, shows a candidate who may be weak in key areas, and unable to garner the support necessary, even within his own party going into a general election. Recent polling appears to be bearing that out, as one front runner after another has emerged.

GOP 2012 – Two Choices: Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich – Romney Unpredictable in Debate - Gingrich: Stalwart, Calm in Face of Criticism

Likely 2012 Choices - Going Forward - Who do you Trust? - image from pensitoreview.com

When one looks at the very capable field of “contenders” for the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination, one understands that the time between the Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses has grown so short, that any recovery for those who are not Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich would be nothing short of miraculous. With today being December 1st, there are approximately four weeks left to sort the chaff from the wheat, and the early primary and caucus states will be the harbinger of things to come.

The Candidates, from this perspective, offer two very clear choices, one in Willard Mitt Romney, who has a track record as Governor of Massachusetts, but more of a track record in business, giving rise to his claim as a “Washington Outsider”. However, it is a fact that Romney attempted to be a Washington outside, but lost that bid in a no-contest run at the Senate against one Teddy Kennedy. It was in the debate arena where Romney suffered, and the more probable lack of ground support in state that rarely knows there is an opposition candidate to an incumbent until the last hour – the outcome is usually predicable, which leaves the Democrats in fairly firm control of the Bay State. Given the fact that Massachusetts historically elects Republican’s to the corner office, it is not a surprise that going back and running for Governor, Romney was able to win the critical election – the one that allowed him a stepping stone to the 2008 Presidential race. Therefore Romney’s career in “government” was approximately three years long. In that time, he pushed through a universal health care reform bill in the Bay State, instituted fees (s.i.c.) taxes for licenses of all sorts (it is now out of the reach of most families to take their children fishing), and he did balance the budget. To be fair to Romney, and those in the Republican Establishment that truly believe a candidate must be as close to a Democrat ideologically to get elected in Massachusetts or the country for that matter. One must be politically correct. Notice how painful Romney appears when he is “throwing red meat” to conservatives. It is obviously going against his grain. In addition – as far as appearances are concerned, he cannot always be counted on to maintain his composure. He becomes visibly angry – For the latest example see the article here on Romney in the Miami Herald, regarding his Fox News Interview with Bret Bair. Romney took exception to being asked certain questions.

Newt Gingrich, who is now the most targeted man in American, given his climb in polls both in the early primary states as well as the latest Rasmussen Poll, where he bests Obama, is dealing with the arrows and slings thrown by “friends and foes “alike in a most calm and straightforward manner. He does not duck questions, rather, he has answers. When asked about his personal life, he talks about the human condition – we are all capable of making mistakes. When there is a bit of a fabrication, he calls it out (specifically the rumor of his handing a dying wife divorce papers – one which is totally baseless and came from a left, hoping to remove then Speaker of the House – Newt Gingrich – apparently he was too conservative. – The facts: his dying wife is still alive and well, and it was she who was asking for the divorce, this from a daughter who was present at the time in question.) When asked about his stance on Global Warming being man-made, he gives the best answer on the subject: “we don’t’ know”. Which is the truth – there simply has not been any credible research to established global warming (see University email scandal to create results to support global warming), nor to dismiss it – when was the last time someone was working on the theory of “global cooling?”

On participating in a commercial with Nancy Pelosi on the same subject: “It was stupid” – Refreshing, asked and answered in a completely understandable way.

On his private business taking fees from clients, even if that client were a government subsidies entity (i.e. Freddie and Fannie), or an industry that is constantly targeted by the left, it was a private business, one which he ran successfully. Consultants abound, Gingrich just happens to be one of them – the Government routinely hires contractors, (outside firms) the majority of which save the taxpayers’ dollars. It simply boils down to this: it was his choice of business, he was more than capable and qualified, yet opposition teams that are slipping like stones in the polls, and or realize that they stand no chance whatsoever to reach the goal of GOP nominee in 2012, are grasping at any available straws in order to cast doubt on Gingrich.

Although sensational for the day or so the you tube ad, or the comments to some talking head are part of the 24-7 news cycle, Gingrich appear to be able to calmly and with not a little bit of humor, offer a explanation or mea culpa, with a genuineness – that’s wise. Most importantly, unlike most “holier than though” politicians’ he admits to making mistakes. Anyone with any sense understands that as human beings, one goes through stages, where one makes mistakes, grows older, repents of those errors, and learns from said mistakes or missteps.

Given the fact that the nation is now down to three in the 2012 political arena, those being: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich – one must start coming to grips with the obvious choices of supporting one who is wise enough to admit mistakes, and rocks in the debate forum, over one who is less willing, or for that matter incapable of admitting mistakes, and takes umbrage at being asked questions on his past policy – and finally one who, as President, has led the nation according to his own ideology, which, is appears to be one of a progressive world view, and one which allows for constant campaigning, rather than governing.

The reality – there is no perfect candidate, however, one might prefer a candidate that not only knows they are not “perfect” (meaning for every single voter), and is also willing to admit to failings. As there is no way to predict outcomes, and as there is no way to know how those in the first caucus and primary states will cast their votes, it is quite possible, that Mitt Romney could go on to become the nominee, whereas, a good percentage (75% - given Romney’s consistent polling in the 20’s), will hold their nose and vote for Romney or just stay home.)

That would be this bloggers choice, never having missed or wasted a vote, it would be a vote that would be cast with a bit of angst – angst that there might not be the stellar debate performances that are necessary for today’s media consumers to make a clear choice between the incumbent and the GOP nominee. Should, during the course of the general campaign, a reporter be rebuffed for asking a question, the already hostile media would ensure that topic remained front and center for weeks. It is possible that Romney could win the Presidency – possibly.

However, with Gingrich the vote would be cast enthusiastically, despite his human failings, despite having “stupidly “made a commercial with Nancy Pelosi, despite his stance on global warming, because of his stance on immigration (which is sane), and his ability to be both smart, pompous, and funny in the course of answering a question in the debate arena.
Therefore, although this counts for little in the greater scheme of things, this blogger endorses the candidacy of one Newt Gingrich for President. A disclaimer will accompany future posts even though this is an opinion blog. The reasons for this endorsement are outlined above.

For Edification:

You Tube Video: from the Senate Campaign Debate with Kennedy: It is only a 5 minute section of the debate, and one is hard pressed to find anything other than “cuts” of the debate by political opposition teams.


Link to video from the Ron Paul Campaign on Romney Losing Temper with Reporters: You Tube.

In fact, if one looks at the Ron Paul You Tube channel, one can find opposition videos for all candidates – Romney takes the majority of hits, most likely given his role as “leader” for the past two elections.

Gingrich 2012 - The Debator - Poll: Obama 43: Gingrich: 45

From:Rasmussen: Newt Gingrich is now in a statistical tie with President, Barack Obama. The polling was took place from November 28-29, with one thousand likely voters, and a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

The President's approval rating on Gallup dropped, surpassing President Jimmy Carter, to teh lowest level recorded in modern history.

Gingrich and Romney, according to Rasmussen, are the only two candidates a majority of those polled considered qualified to be president.