David Axelrod on CNN on Deval Patrick – Lowering Expectations for the Massachusetts Governor

In a CNN video posted to Real Clear Politics David Axelrod, White House Advisor, and reported Obama’s campaign manager for reelection in 2012, reviewed the mid-term elections. The Headline ”Axelrod Suggests Dem Upset: "Stay Up For The Full Night" suggests, according to CNN that Axelrod appears somewhat misleading, as Axelrod rambles through questions posed by CNN’s John King noting: “as I said, I think you're going to see an -- an election where, you know, people win who perhaps you didn't expect to win, people lose who -- who, perhaps, you didn't expect to lose on -- on both sides.”

However, the interview begins with a discussion on which races Axelrod will be watching, and the East Coast is discussed first, specifically, Axelrod’s former client and alleged test for Obama’s 2008 victory,Deval Patrick. Paraphrased from the video below: “Deval, an old client of mine, spectacular person, Massachusetts has elected Republican governors for 16 years before he arrived, so that’s a competitive race.”…

After that quip, Axelrod goes into the discussion regarding surprises the night of the election and highlights the California Governor’s race as an example. Axelrod suggests that spending $200 million dollars might just clinch the deal for Democrat Jerry Brown against Meg Whitman. That’s apparently all he has right at the moment.

Meanwhile, back in the Bay State, the three man race for the Governor’s seat is in its final two weeks, with Democrat turned Independent, Tim Cahill going to the 10 point range, in the latest poll from Suffolk University. The poll released on October 14th and taken between the 10th and 12th of September, suggests that the electorate was far from a commitment on any candidate. On question 17: where do you stand on the race at this point, one finds Patrick at 44%, Baker at 37% and Cahill at 10% (with the balance either undecided, Green Party, etc.). On Question 18 however, when those leaner’s are asked who they would vote for if the election were held today? – There is a startling difference: Patrick receives 6%, Baker 12%, and Cahill 2%, with a whopping 49% refusing to answer or not sure. The results of the poll which were released were the combination of the two questions, gives Patrick a somewhat artificial edge. That said, with a pollster that repeatedly includes 8% of it staff (Suffolk University) in the mix, one has to ask, how accurate can this poll be? Consider it is doubtful that 8% of the Massachusetts electorate resides on the Suffolk campus. (See screen shot below).


Section of Marginal from Suffolk Poll showing larger percentage of undecideds only two weeks away - deduct 8 points for Suffolk only participants - click to enlarge


It is more than likely that internal polling on the Patrick team suggests the gig is up, which is why Axelrod was softening the “blow” so to speak when reviewing the Massachusetts Electorate. One can bet the House (literally) that he will also have his eyes on the Bay State’s 9 Congressional races, which, as of this point, don’t appear to be heading in a direction pleasing to Axelrod and Company. Axelrod, who is certain that Mitt Romney will run in 2012, could not have missed that Romney’s PAC recently endorsed certain Congressional Candidates, including Sean Bielat, running against Barney Frank and Tom Wesley, running against Richard Neal. The move on Romney's Part can be viewed in two ways:one, the man is a businessman first, and would not waste a dime, and two; it goes toward building political capital for the future.

As races either tighten up or completely blow out in normally “Blue States” such as Illinois and Massachusetts, one has to begin to realize that the electorate, in larger measures (according to a WSJ/NBC pollwould prefer to elect a candidate that has not held office before, that would, perhaps explain why seasoned politicians, such as Nancy Pelosi and Richard Neal, have ducked debates, and have become almost invisible in their home districts, even though they were responsible for taking a break to campaign and not voting on the extension of tax cuts. Axelrod is a smart man, and looks more pained than confident in this particular CNN clip.

Axelrod on CNN